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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25497458 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Last of the V8s
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August 19, 2020, 04:22:22 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), Torque (2), OROBTC (2)

https://twitter.com/DennisReimann/status/1295746340333539329?s=20



"The Sovereign Individual" 1997
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August 19, 2020, 04:31:34 PM
Last edit: August 19, 2020, 04:55:04 PM by philipma1957
Merited by BobLawblaw (10), El duderino_ (6), Globb0 (5), criptix (5), infofront (2), vapourminer (1), Biodom (1), JayJuanGee (1)

[...]
I have found a few daily diff drops like this can act as a price drag. So if these downward block days stretch out for 3-5 days there will be downward price pressure.


The hashrate drops (supposedly because of the current floods in China miners need to temporarily stop operation), not the difficulty (which gets adjusted once every 2016 blocks or ~2 weeks).

If the difficulty remains the same, but the hashrate drops, the miners still mining get more bitcoin per hash. Which means they have to sell less bitcoin to pay for electricity. So I am not sure why a sudden drop in hashrate would cause downward price pressure, would expect the opposite.

I am sorry my post was not clear enough for you to understand.

I will attempt to be more clear this time.

I have studied difficulty for more then five years.
I have written thousands of posts on it.
I have given away more then 10 btc in difficulty prediction contests.

When I talk about decreasing difficulty dragging price down.

I am talking about the next jump.

when I read v8s info on the flooding the future jump was based on us being 69 blocks ahead of pace.

we are now 32-33 blocks ahead. so we are down 37-38 blocks since v8’s post.

I have a ton of observational data that shows mid 2016 period diff drops tend to drag price a bit.

basically we did drop price so it is following a familiar pattern.

We did three days dropping from 69 to 32 blocks ahead.

the future diff prediction is now lower.


Current difficulty is never what I refer to as I only look to predict the next one or two jumps of the diff.
It makes a lot of mining farm decisions easier to do.

I can use 300kwatts an hour before I cap out. I use 130-160kwatts an hour and clocking the future diff is far easier then clocking future price.

You would not be expected to understand me when I talk about diff. you would simply say dude the diff did not change wtf do you mean.

Lastly my theory as to why a mid drop like this drags price is as follows.

First 7 days 154 blocks a day = 70 blocks ahead.
Last 3 days  132 blocks a day = 36 blocks behind. net 34 blocks off.

Floods in China if a few big boys had to shut down they could be 66 blocks lost

as 154-132 = 22 x 3 = 66 blocks.

This may force them do usually large coin sales.
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August 19, 2020, 04:37:20 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)

Made a transaction earlier, 116 sats per byte fee. This was around 11:00am, still waiting for a confirmation nearly 7 hours later.

I’ve accelerated it with Via Bitcoin free accelerator but fucking hell.....7 hours.
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August 19, 2020, 04:50:21 PM
Last edit: August 19, 2020, 05:10:30 PM by JayJuanGee

/OT
I've just seen that the Chipmixer signature campaign is still paying 0,0375BTC/week for 50 posts at current prices.
Damn, for that I would be posting in every forum all day every day !

CM paid the same amount when BTC was worth $20k, but also when it was only $3000k - they pay in BTC, and never look at fiat value of those coins. Do you think that it is easy to write 50 qualifying posts every week?

I missed that $3000k phase in BTC's history.  It must have been lovely.... Wished I could have been there (call me bitter, if you must).

Dream on aesma... ;-)


@JJG I'm sure he was JOKING! Only joking!  Tongue


I wouldn't mind some serious dip to fill my bags either, but my SOMA analysis says now it's not that time. And small print is very bad for our eyes.

We cannot get every joke, can "we?"**

**Note: "royal we" employed in order to deny some amount of responsibility... and yeah small can be challenging for some of "us" oldie fellows.


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August 19, 2020, 05:10:49 PM


I have given away more then 10 btc in difficulty prediction contests.


wow, @philipma1957 gave away more than the bottom 98% of btc accounts are worth (per account).
Applause.
Last of the V8s
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August 19, 2020, 05:14:42 PM

yeah I played all those games. don't think I ever won once, but was great fun. even that suchmoon fella chipped in a couple of quid once
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August 19, 2020, 05:18:21 PM
Last edit: August 19, 2020, 05:39:42 PM by Biodom
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I was in awe reading this book in 2015.
Albeit, only those with ~3000 btc could be currently called truly 'sovereign individuals' as described in the book
the rest of us could aspire to become in due course
The sad part is that Bezos, Musk, etc already are SI, but most of us are not there yet.
In fact, Musk has displayed independence of a 'sovereign individual' in his tussle with SEC and his county (i mean where tesla factory is) health commish.
They did not know what they were dealing with, lol.

Made a transaction earlier, 116 sats per byte fee. This was around 11:00am, still waiting for a confirmation nearly 7 hours later.

I’ve accelerated it with Via Bitcoin free accelerator but fucking hell.....7 hours.

I never bother anymore, unless it is Sat or Sun or if it is an exchange (outgoing).
JayJuanGee
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August 19, 2020, 05:36:42 PM

Made a transaction earlier, 116 sats per byte fee. This was around 11:00am, still waiting for a confirmation nearly 7 hours later.

I’ve accelerated it with Via Bitcoin free accelerator but fucking hell.....7 hours.

Oh shit!!!!!!!    Shocked Shocked Shocked


LFC turning into a BIG BLOCKER. Cry



Run for the hills, boyz!!! 



Bitcoin is ded.


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August 19, 2020, 05:40:28 PM
Last edit: August 19, 2020, 06:03:42 PM by LFC_Bitcoin
Merited by vapourminer (2), HI-TEC99 (1), Last of the V8s (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

Oh shit!!!!!!!    Shocked Shocked Shocked


LFC turning into a BIG BLOCKER. Cry



Run for the hills, boyz!!!  



Bitcoin is ded.

Nah, I’m just testing out Kraken for the first time in anticipation of the epic bull next year. I’m selling signature campaign funds, that’s all. My main stash I have sold nothing for many years.

It’s confirmed now any way Cheesy


Edit -

£1.95 fee
Fiat withdrawal credited to bank acc in 5 mins.

I’m fully KYC with unlimited fiat withdrawals on Kraken & Stamp, I have a big daily withdrawal acceptance on Coinbase Pro & something smaller like €200,000 per year on Localbitcoins.

I’ve linked 3 fiat bank acc’s to Kraken too.

Boys, you need to be prepared for next year, HairyMaclairy told me to be a boy scout in prep for the next bull run & I definitely have been. You do not want to get caught slipping when peak bull comes & the mempool is jammed to hell & exchanges are so busy.

Do what needs to be done, mini trial sells etc now. Get fully KYC’d on as many trusted exchanges as poss & link more than one bank account incase they block your account temporarily & ask you to explain source of funds when you dump multi millions in there.
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August 19, 2020, 05:49:03 PM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

https://twitter.com/metamick14/status/1295764368546766849

Quote
Bitcoin has a branding problem. While we might not care this is largely reducing Bitcoin's accessibility to the masses.

And while #Bitcoin is an amazing technology in itself, I believe the missing link lies in leveraging its culture, the #Hodlculture.

Thread + article
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https://medium.com/@metamick14/balinese-cockfights-bitcoins-how-one-can-help-us-understand-the-other-c075027ffeb6

Quote
"Foreigners have for centuries reduced Balinese cockfights to a senseless form of gambling. Similarly, Bitcoin might at first be associated with gambling, black markets and hackers. But dive into these worlds & things start looking quite differently"

very good thread on hodling
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August 19, 2020, 05:51:20 PM


I have given away more then 10 btc in difficulty prediction contests.


wow, @philipma1957 gave away more than the bottom 98% of btc accounts are worth (per account).
Applause.

suchmoon funded more of it then I did.

I used to do signature campaign and fund the give away with that.

coins were cheap back in the day.
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August 19, 2020, 06:01:34 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2), VB1001 (1)

First perk of the COVID.
Working for ACME.inc remotely.
Taking a bath in the sea after long office hours, when nobody is on the beach (everyone drinking spritz here).



1BTC=1BTC
Enjoy life.
Stay safe.
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August 19, 2020, 06:06:27 PM




printer goes burrrr :-D weeeeeeee
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August 19, 2020, 06:08:35 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


I was in awe reading this book in 2015.
Albeit, only those with ~3000 btc could be currently called truly 'sovereign individuals' as described in the book
the rest of us could aspire to become in due course
The sad part is that Bezos, Musk, etc already are SI, but most of us are not there yet.
In fact, Musk has displayed independence of a 'sovereign individual' in his tussle with SEC and his county (i mean where tesla factory is) health commish.
They did not know what they were dealing with, lol.

[snip]



Yeah, I too well remember reading that book around 1997 or so.  Full of wonderful ideas of what might happen, and much of it already has.  It is too bad that to become a Sovereign Individual requires a lot more money than even serious BTC HODLers will likely be able to ever have.

I think that +/- 1000BTC (plus whatever other assets you might have) might be enough, as long as one's appetites are not too high...  But 1000BTC is way more than I will ever have, by orders of magnitude.  *Sigh*

The one thing (that I can remember) that has NOT come to pass that the authors predicted is a territorial jurisdiction that would welcome such Individuals by offering low taxes and other welcoming features for investment capital.

It seems that Socialism and hating the rich still seems to hold such power all over the world.  Pity.

JayJuanGee
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August 19, 2020, 06:14:34 PM

https://twitter.com/metamick14/status/1295764368546766849

Quote
Bitcoin has a branding problem. While we might not care this is largely reducing Bitcoin's accessibility to the masses.

And while #Bitcoin is an amazing technology in itself, I believe the missing link lies in leveraging its culture, the #Hodlculture.

Thread + article
Down pointing backhand index
Chicken

https://medium.com/@metamick14/balinese-cockfights-bitcoins-how-one-can-help-us-understand-the-other-c075027ffeb6

Quote
"Foreigners have for centuries reduced Balinese cockfights to a senseless form of gambling. Similarly, Bitcoin might at first be associated with gambling, black markets and hackers. But dive into these worlds & things start looking quite differently"

very good thread on hodling

It seem to me that there are a quite a few longer term BTC HODLers who just consider all the ongoing bullshit in the space and the lack of BTC's good publicity to be means for the BTC price to stay lower and allow for longer term ongoing BTC accumulation.. while other diptwats are either distracted, mislead or lacking in their research in terms of figuring out what bitcoin is.

Sure, there are some bitcoiners who are out there and engaging in various kinds of free marketing, and it seems that overall people are going to start to figure it out, .. so really it tends to be difficult to rush a good thing... I cannot really see any reason to complain that bitcoin is either badly marketed or NOT marketed enough.. because it is not like any of us long term HODLers really want to change matters.. and the lack of marketing is not really a threat to bitcoin, is it?  Developers are still working on bitcoin for "free," with some companies choosing to voluntarily fund some developers, and miners are still incentivized to direct their hashing power toward bitcoin, keeping our coins nice and (overly secure)...  Remember that diptwat billyjoeallen, who used to come into the thread and to proclaim that BTC was too secure... blah blah blah...

If it is not broke, then don't fix it is part of my current thinkenings, and also good things will come to those who wait... and ... blah blah blah... My thinkenings are not exactly ongoingly consistent... which reminds me that consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, anywho.
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August 19, 2020, 06:38:08 PM

I don't know, it seems most very rich people are fine living in the most expensive places.

Not easy, but for that amount I can take several hours a day to achieve it.

When new spots are opened in the campaign, feel free to apply - but if you want to have some chances, work on your posts - because that's the most important thing (at least in my opinion) that the campaign manager looks at. Nothing is impossible, only if you want it hard enough Wink

CM is quite picky. He has to be. What you should do is pretend like you are already in the campaign, and post everywhere else but WO thread, as this thread is not counted. Do that for a couple of weeks or longer, then send an application. 50 posts per weeks is about 7 or 8 per day. You should space it out the whole day too, like post once every hour, at normal "working" time.

Or just look at the spreadsheet and look at the other participants in the campaign, and do what they do, in terms of posting frequency, and where they post. I'm almost sure you can just grab a few, and reply to whatever thread they are in with a full sentence or paragraph, and that should be considered okay.

Good idea, I'll track others. I'm also thinking of trying to join another campaign, even if earning satoshis, just for "training".
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August 19, 2020, 06:52:18 PM


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August 19, 2020, 08:13:56 PM
Last edit: August 19, 2020, 08:35:31 PM by JimboToronto
Merited by philipma1957 (1), JayJuanGee (1)

It seems that Socialism and hating the rich still seems to hold such power all over the world.  Pity.

The peasantry have always hated nobility and always will.

The secret is to keep the peasants happy. Bread and circuses.

Genghis Kahn exempted the poor from taxation. The nobility still got richer.

Don't be too greedy.
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August 19, 2020, 08:43:47 PM

Our dear old impotus must be eating too many of those Goya Beans he was shilling....

https://youtu.be/8oKYK1MPwhM?t=219


go bitcoin
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August 19, 2020, 09:13:46 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

Made a transaction earlier, 116 sats per byte fee. This was around 11:00am, still waiting for a confirmation nearly 7 hours later.

I’ve accelerated it with Via Bitcoin free accelerator but fucking hell.....7 hours.

This is a  result of blocks dropping off from 154 rate a day first 7 days of this jump to 132 rate a day next 3 days of the jump.


As a miner my blocks now pay an average of 1 coin in fees today vs .5 coins a few days back.

I can get into a ton of short term play that major miners can do.

Owning 10% of the hash rate (bitmain) means the possibility of moving 1000's of s17pro gear from 43th to 50th to 56th.

This  Allows a ton of diff manipulation  which can in turn raise and lower price marginally.  It is a different kind of whale.

I Used to write tons of posts on this still do but I am looking to get a better understanding of trader influences on price.

I still Say at 19 million x 11750 = 224 billion. there is a ton of cash value available for BTC growth.
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