Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Just because we are talking about walls and BTC price movement in the short term, does not really mean that we give too many shits about short term BTC price movements - or that we are not keeping long term likely UPpity in mind.

There is no need to get all UPpity JuanSnowGee. The UPpity will come at its proper time and place.

Surely, I am not rushing it.  I am willing to go with the flow.  You are the one who seems to be anticipating possible calamaties based on various unknowns that you seem to want to assign unduly high (relatively speaking) levels of probabilities

You are participating in those same conversations and talking about what you believe about UP or DOWN in the short term, so shouldn't we lump you in the same category regarding what your concerns are because you are regularly posting about such?

No.

There should be no lumping what so ever...especially if I am the lumpee.

Good job.   One of the most potent techniques of effective argumentation is to deny first and ask questions later.

I will however concede that I much prefer to be the lumper rather than the lumpee if we are going to have lumpage of the unwashed masses.

Well that's what you seemed to have been doing.

You lumped everyone else, and proclaimed that you were not part of such group.       Another "great" technique.    

Of course, similar with traders, there are going to be all kinds of variation within any identified group, so yeah you are entitled to having your doom and gloom theory about miners potentially being over extended, even though I do not really buy that theory, personally.

I am unsure if my statements...or theory as would have you, qualifies as something that falls into a doom and gloom scenario.

O.k.  we won't call it doom and gloom anymore, we will call it self-destructive urge.  Is that better?

I believe that miners have overall been profitable, and sure they can hold back some coins in order to speculate on the BTC price going up, and likely they have always engaged in some conduct, but the longer and longer that bitcoin is in business the more and more the dumber miners have been getting screened out, and the more and more that miners have figured out ways to meaningfully balance their approach to cash out from time to time and also to hold back enough coins to speculate.

I believe this as well. If said miners tend to follow sound business practices and withhodl 3 to 6 months of operating capital for just in case, such capitulation theories become moot.

I am sure that there is variation, but the longer that we are in such business, the more likely that some of the BIGGER players are going to engage in more efficient practices in order to attempt to out compete the more reckless players, to the extent that they are able to profit from maximizing efficiencies through sounder business practices.

I doubt that the bitcoin space is getting less and less stable with the passage of time, even though BIGGER and BIGGER players continue to come into the space and attempt to throw larger and larger capital at the situation to attempt to get their way, but in the end, we are seeing longer term (you like long term, right? chart patterns that are seeming to show 4 year fractal and even the stock to flow model to be almost too eerily close to being 100% spot on...

Yes.

If you merely agree with me, then you are giving me nothing to argue with you about.

Yeah, I am not going to proclaim that the BTC price is guaranteed to continue to follow those 4-year fractal and stock to flow model patterns, but they continue to serve as some of the best predictors in spite a lot of the maneuvering and dickering around that either BIG money does or even crazy ass shit in the macro financial space.

This seems wise and I reluctantly agree.

ditto, my above response here.

So for example, let's say we get a hundred thousand BTC dumped over a variety of exchanges and BTC prices drop down to $6,500 again, how long is that drop going to last?  I will believe it when I see it.  I am not suggesting that it is NOT impossible, but largely we are seeming way more inclined for UPpity than DOWNity, currently, even if we experience a few more dumpenings of coins to attempt to shake out some more weak hands, but if even the weakhands are not being shook, then I suppose that they are NOT fitting in the definition of weak hands.

Personally, I would not mind witnessing of shaking some of the ethereum and some of that defi bullshit smoke and mirror froth.. those areas seem way more vulnerable than speculative seemingly lame-ass theories of purported BTC miner capitulation.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Stronghands are not shook...ever. I thought you knew this JuanSnowGee.

I can see that you are getting angry toxicmoxic, and I am sorry about that.  

----

TypeError: must be toxic2040, not wordybot


Please stand by as we run heuristics and reboot toxic2040.exe


That is all.

You better reboot and come back with some better proclamations.. .Maybe hook up with torque?  He's been coming out with some doosey conspiracy wannabe theories, lately.    

Hopium.

My body is ready:

#Bitcoin  after the Halving
Aug. 31, 2020

111 days after the 3rd halving.
#BTC  at $11,732.

Looking solid 👇

https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1300448468377378816?s=21


Confidence bands based on past halvings.
I am happy with this slight underperformance, diminishing returns, I am ok with that.

It's unlikely we will see growth the same as the past halvings. I think ~3-5x the prior ATH (so 60-100k) is a reasonable peak this time around. 

TheJuice = pessimist (aka party poop)   

#thatisall

[1685279372]

1685279372

[1685279372]

1685279372

[1685279372]

1685279372

[OutOfMemory]

Hopium.

My body is ready:

#Bitcoin  after the Halving
Aug. 31, 2020

111 days after the 3rd halving.
#BTC  at $11,732.

Looking solid 👇

https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1300448468377378816?s=21


Confidence bands based on past halvings.
I am happy with this slight underperformance, diminishing returns, I am ok with that.

It's unlikely we will see growth the same as the past halvings. I think ~3-5x the prior ATH (so 60-100k) is a reasonable peak this time around. 

In terms of market cap, i'd disagree. And then there's that thing about scarcity.
Acceptance is the key here. Derivatives might actually help, while slowing down market cap growth in the beginning.

[Toxic2040]

Voted $12.0k - $12.5k.
Quite some resistance to take out until even touching $12k, though.

[fillippone]

Hopium.

My body is ready:

#Bitcoin  after the Halving
Aug. 31, 2020

111 days after the 3rd halving.
#BTC  at $11,732.

Looking solid 👇

https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1300448468377378816?s=21


Confidence bands based on past halvings.
I am happy with this slight underperformance, diminishing returns, I am ok with that.

It's unlikely we will see growth the same as the past halvings. I think ~3-5x the prior ATH (so 60-100k) is a reasonable peak this time around.  

In terms of market cap, i'd disagree. And then there's that thing about scarcity.
Acceptance is the key here. Derivatives might actually help, while slowing down market cap growth in the beginning.

Two opposing forces:

• Downward pressure: bigger market caps drags price action, as more money inflow is required to move the price
• Upward pressure: every day the S2F holds, it gets stronger and stronger, so future appreciation gets discounted into price, providing a lift to prices.

It’s a battle.
👇 👇 👇 someone send merits to this men. I am dry.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I think we’ll top out at around $150,000 in late 2021. It all depends on how much the money printing effects fiat currencies & how badly traditional assets depreciate due to covid over the next 18 months. If bitcoin is seen as some kind of safe haven & people flock to it then the top end of what fillippone posted could materialise.

I’m saying $150,000 top though (current estimate).

[OutOfMemory]

Two opposing forces:

• Downward pressure: bigger market caps drags price action, as more money inflow is required to move the price
• Upward pressure: every day the S2F holds, it gets stronger and stronger, so future appreciation gets discounted into price, providing a lift to prices.

It’s a battle.

I didn't look at this as simple as that, but you quite nailed it, imho.
You can see the increasing linear spread of market cap and price figures, for example on coinmarketcap graphs.
The more BTC get's recognized as what it is, the more inflow acceleration will occur as a logical result.
But i'm uncertain how increasing inflation will influence the latter. In critical times, people tend to fall back to traditional solutions, namely gold.

EDIT:
@JJG: Don't call me bearish just because of that statement about gold  
Bitcoin should take over, imo. Only a matter when people will grasp this.

[jbreher]

By the way, I managed to withdraw everything from Bitmex before going through the latest KYC/AML doorway. Anybody still keeping funds with them must complete identification before they can trade, deposit or withdraw.

same story with Bitstamp some time ago (don't remember which year it was). Bitstamp switched to KYC/AML.

Still looking for a DEX that allows trading pairs of BTC:USD, BCH:USD, and/or BSV:USD, and is actually... you know... decentralized. Suggestions?

I think thats not possible, you need to use a stablecoin pair if you want to trade for fiat.

Yes, it seems fundamentally an unsquarable circle. I keep lookin' tho.

So, given stated constraints and preferences, how about a suggestion for a DEX for core:honest-stablecoin? Maybe for BTC:USDC? And actually... you know ... decentralized?

[jojo69]

[sirazimuth]

Oh don't be mean bud.
Lately it would seem the cat's got his tongue...

[JayJuanGee]

Two opposing forces:

• Downward pressure: bigger market caps drags price action, as more money inflow is required to move the price
• Upward pressure: every day the S2F holds, it gets stronger and stronger, so future appreciation gets discounted into price, providing a lift to prices.

It’s a battle.

I didn't look at this as simple as that, but you quite nailed it, imho.
You can see the increasing linear spread of market cap and price figures, for example on coinmarketcap graphs.
The more BTC get's recognized as what it is, the more inflow acceleration will occur as a logical result.
But i'm uncertain how increasing inflation will influence the latter. In critical times, people tend to fall back to traditional solutions, namely gold.

EDIT:
@JJG: Don't call me bearish just because of that statement about gold  
Bitcoin should take over, imo. Only a matter when people will grasp this.

I might call you delusional, rather than bearish.

Sure there is a lot of sentiment out there regarding gold serving as a sufficient and adequate hedge against ongoing fiscal irresponsibility.. but you really believe that gold is providing anything that bitcoin is NOT going to be providing in the coming years?

Not only is bitcoin better than gold in terms of portability, divisibility, verifiability and a few other important characteristics, bitcoin also has the exponential s-curve adoption aspect, which surely is an unfair advantage for bitcoin to be going through early stages of adoption while gold hardly has anywhere to go in terms of actual adoption, but why would the market give any shits about the fairness of this particular situation... eg the lopsided circumstances favoring bitcoin?

So sure, maybe you won't lose your wealth as fast in gold as you might lose it in various kinds of fiat-based investments, but I still am NOT sure where you are speculating that you might be able to get something from gold that you cannot get from bitcoin... Seems to me that you are likely speculating about gold's value proposition based on longer history and the already existence of financial instruments that are going to easily allow traditional financial institutions to quickly get into gold, but really?  you believe gold is going to perform as well as bitcoin in the coming years?

What's coming first?  A $10k gold or a $60k bitcoin?  Both are around 5x price appreciation points from today's price.  Which one is getting there first?  You betting evenly on this? You have 50% in each?

How about after gold reaches $10k (hypothetically)?  You gonna get another 4x out of gold, to $40k?  you going to bet on that happening?

How about bitcoin?  Do you consider that bitcoin could arrive at $240k (that is 4x after reaching $60k) a bit more easily after it had already 5x'd as compared with gold arriving at $60k after it had already gotten to $10k?

I could keep going on with higher and higher numbers, and the upside still seems way more favorable for bitcoin as compared to grandpa coin (aka gold) reaching those higher numbers.

Make your bets however you choose, OOM, but I am having troubles appreciating how you might be so willing to suggest that gold is reasonable, feasible and necessary in light of where king daddy happens to be and where king daddy seems likely to be going in the coming years.

Edit:  Clarified a few points and fixed a few typos.

[JayJuanGee]

Oh don't be mean bud.
Lately it would seem the cat's got his tongue...

Jojo sent me a private message, and based on that, I am pretty sure that it was a duck that had his tongue. 



He seems to be attempting a recovery.

[explorer]

Hopium.

My body is ready:

#Bitcoin  after the Halving
Aug. 31, 2020

111 days after the 3rd halving.
#BTC  at $11,732.

Looking solid 👇

https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1300448468377378816?s=21


Confidence bands based on past halvings.
I am happy with this slight underperformance, diminishing returns, I am ok with that.

It's unlikely we will see growth the same as the past halvings. I think ~3-5x the prior ATH (so 60-100k) is a reasonable peak this time around. 

Resistance futile
Supply is diminishing
FOMO then we moon


When the supply of resistance coins gets gobbled, the price just goes bananas.  There is no reasonable number.  FOMO is not reasonable. My expectations: 50k will be akin to 2017's ~4k.  Woohoo, sideways/down, then off again to moon.   :rollercoaster.gif

[OutOfMemory]

Two opposing forces:

• Downward pressure: bigger market caps drags price action, as more money inflow is required to move the price
• Upward pressure: every day the S2F holds, it gets stronger and stronger, so future appreciation gets discounted into price, providing a lift to prices.

It’s a battle.

I didn't look at this as simple as that, but you quite nailed it, imho.
You can see the increasing linear spread of market cap and price figures, for example on coinmarketcap graphs.
The more BTC get's recognized as what it is, the more inflow acceleration will occur as a logical result.
But i'm uncertain how increasing inflation will influence the latter. In critical times, people tend to fall back to traditional solutions, namely gold.

EDIT:
@JJG: Don't call me bearish just because of that statement about gold  
Bitcoin should take over, imo. Only a matter when people will grasp this.

I might call you delusional, rather than bearish.

Sure there is a lot of sentiment out there regarding gold serving as a sufficient and adequate hedge against ongoing fiscal irresponsibility.. but you really believe that gold is providing anything that bitcoin is NOT going to be providing in the coming years.

Not only is bitcoin better than gold in terms of portability, divisibility, verifiability and a few other important characteristics, bitcoin also has the exponential s-curve adoption aspect, which surely is an unfair advantage for bitcoin, buy why would the market give any shits about fairness.

So, sure, maybe you won't loose your wealth as fast in gold as you might lose it in various kinds of fiat-based investments, but I still am NOT sure where you are speculating that you might be able to get something from gold that you cannot get from bitcoin... and sure you are likely going based on longer history and the already existence of financial instruments that are going to easily allow traditional financial institutions to quickly get into gold, but really?  you believe gold is going to perform as well as bitcoin in the coming years?

What's coming first?  A $10k gold or a $60k bitcoin?  Both are around 5x price appreciation.  Which one is getting there first?  You betting evenly on this?

How about after gold reaches $10k (hypothetically)?  You gonna get another 4x out of gold, to $40k?  you going to bet on that?

How about bitcoin?  Do you consider that bitcoin could arrive at $240k (that is 4x after reaching $60k) a bit more easily than gold?

I could keep going on with higher and higher numbers, and the upside still seems way more favorable for bitcoin as compared to grandpa coin (aka gold).

Make your bets however you choose, but I am having troubles appreciating how you might be so willing to suggest that gold is reasonable, feasible and necessary in light of where king daddy happens to be and where king daddy seems likely to go in the coming years.

I mean:
Bitcoin would deserve a good amount of inflow of gold instead, but most of the grannies still love their "granny-coin".
It's them* who are delusional, not me.
I don't trade with, nor do i hold any PMs.

*not the grannies, but the gold holders.

EDIT:
#hodlsleep in 3... 2... 1...

[Dabs]

I don't trade with, nor do i hold any PMs.

*not the grannies, but the gold holders.

EDIT:
#hodlsleep in 3... 2... 1...

When bitcoin goes past $100k, it wouldn't be a bad idea to get a little bit of some gold bars huh... Silver might be too much.

[Forgotoldaccount]

I don't trade with, nor do i hold any PMs.

*not the grannies, but the gold holders.

EDIT:
#hodlsleep in 3... 2... 1...

When bitcoin goes past $100k, it wouldn't be a bad idea to get a little bit of some gold bars huh... Silver might be too much.

Bitcoin will never see over 12k ever again as it slides into irrelevance

[Toxic2040]

 

emptied bags too soon?  probably should forget this account as well



---------

[JayJuanGee]

Regarding creating wealth, patience, financial independence, compound interest, leverage, etc etc. If you have 3.5 hours to spare (which I have because painting the house) would definitely recommend listing to the podcast by @Naval:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=1-TZqOsVCNM

(quite sure this is something you enjoy listening to JJG)

.......

Since I was able to find that same Naval podcast (and of course that particular episode) on Overcast, then I will be able to more easily add it to my cue and listen to it today or soon.^tm..  

I will report back to you (on the thread) what I think of the episode and gosh/shit I will report whether I am intending to add that podcast to my list of regular listens (like I mentioned, I am starting to tentatively speculate that I may have too many podcasts on my cue.. but sure, i will try to keep listening and prioritizing.. to the extent feasible).  

I will follow-up and say that I did listen to the 3.5 hour Naval podcast linked above.  I do agree that the podcast is good, educational, motivational, and it is directed at thinking through a variety of getting rich concepts, especially in modern times with modern dynamics.

 I may listen to more of them in the future, but I will say that I never really had similar kinds of thinking as Naval or even any kind of direct desire to get rich - so I might not be very fitting in terms of his audience... 

So probably for now I can reserve some judgement, and perhaps listen to some more of the podcasts later down the road.. .  I do not feel as if I am at a business or even wealth building stage in my life, so there is that angle of potentially differing interests, too.

[bitebits]

^ Thanks for reporting back, that was quicker than expected . I should try increasing the play speed as well, even though with podcasts like these I need some time to think as well what is actually being said.

It sure is different when at an older age already and not fully in the accumulation phase anymore. But perhaps when looking back you made a lot of (unconscious) choices that put you in the position you currently are? I did not have this laser focus either building some kind of product or brand to get me financially independent. But just being honest and reliable, living below your means, freelancing instead of wage slavery, buying equity, etc, apparently goes a long way. Using ‘leverage’ in many different forms is of course where the real profits are (unfortunately I can’t code, but still want to learn some Python one day to automate certain repetitive tasks).

Was not aware the Naval guy had more podcasts, his tweets are the short versions I guess. Will have a look at overcast.fm, bit afraid I soon need more houses to paint!

[bitebits]

https://twitter.com/pwuille/status/1300572711312265218

After many iterations (including the recent even-R change), it looks like the PR for BIP340 (Schnorr signature) in libsecp256k1 is getting close to being mergeable:  github.com/bitcoin-core/s...

If anyone feels like reviewing/ACKing, feel free!

[BobLawblaw]

Number going up. Shorts soiling themselves.