ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[JimiQ84]

Is asicminer a good invesment?

I don't think we will go past 5 BTC soon, because there is too much competition that is sucking away the funds needed for ASICMINER to cross the 5 BTC barrier. I think we are just going to see 4s.

It depends on wednesday dividends. You can buy a little now and make bigger decision after dividends.

[Ninshatamoto]

We'll see... There's a big problem for folks in the states... Coinbase is effectively down.  No transfers going through.  

Could you clarify this? Source?

I bought 15 BTC yesterday to buy some cheap shares; transferred immediately after purchase to BTCT.  Nothing on the Blockchain, Coinbase says 'pending'.   Get up this morning... the send transaction was gone - no evidence I'd even made it.  

I put it through again.  That was 6 hours ago.  This time I get a confirmation email, but no transfer to BTCT.  This is not normal - I've done this probably 10 times and it typically takes 45 mins.  

And I'm not the only one: Coinbase being extra slow

Not that the situation is good, but it could be taken as a good sign that BTC adoption is up, which is good for all of us.

[empoweoqwj]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=270573.20

Official ASICMiner Hardware Info Thread:

-----------------------
Products Update

Please note that the resellers usually get the products after one week or more
from the day we ship out.

Blade (Old Model):
  Restocking date - August 11, 2013

USB
  Restocking date - August 11, 2013

Blade (New Model):
  Availability date - August 18-25, 2013
----------------------

Sweet - price rise back to 4.5 to 5 coming like an express train. Weeks of high dividends ahead.

[btcbot]

We'll see... There's a big problem for folks in the states... Coinbase is effectively down.  No transfers going through.  

Could you clarify this? Source?

I bought 15 BTC yesterday to buy some cheap shares; transferred immediately after purchase to BTCT.  Nothing on the Blockchain, Coinbase says 'pending'.   Get up this morning... the send transaction was gone - no evidence I'd even made it.  

I put it through again.  That was 6 hours ago.  This time I get a confirmation email, but no transfer to BTCT.  This is not normal - I've done this probably 10 times and it typically takes 45 mins.  

And I'm not the only one: Coinbase being extra slow

Not that the situation is good, but it could be taken as a good sign that BTC adoption is up, which is good for all of us.

Dunno...  If it's a sign of anything, I suspect it's a sign of a security or software problem... and that can't be good.

Anyways... the real problem is back.  I smell whale...  The 2000 share variety.

[Ninshatamoto]

We'll see... There's a big problem for folks in the states... Coinbase is effectively down.  No transfers going through.  

Could you clarify this? Source?

I bought 15 BTC yesterday to buy some cheap shares; transferred immediately after purchase to BTCT.  Nothing on the Blockchain, Coinbase says 'pending'.   Get up this morning... the send transaction was gone - no evidence I'd even made it.  

I put it through again.  That was 6 hours ago.  This time I get a confirmation email, but no transfer to BTCT.  This is not normal - I've done this probably 10 times and it typically takes 45 mins.  

And I'm not the only one: Coinbase being extra slow

Not that the situation is good, but it could be taken as a good sign that BTC adoption is up, which is good for all of us.

Dunno...  If it's a sign of anything, I suspect it's a sign of a security or software problem... and that can't be good.

Anyways... the real problem is back.  I smell whale...  The 2000 share variety.

Well, lets hope I can buy up some more shares before it makes a splash!

[narayan]

Thanks Friedcat!

[Taxidermista]

Not that the situation is good, but it could be taken as a good sign that BTC adoption is up, which is good for all of us.

What would be real good for BTC broad adoption is a exchange company that can provide a fucking service without disrruptions for a fucking straight month. Jesus...

[scrybe]

Extortion, a familiar tactic when it comes to the Bitcoin scene and business in China.

I don't really understand this. Is extortion a familiar tactic when doing business in China in general, or specifically when doing Bitcoin business in China? It seems odd to refer to extortion, or any tactic, as "familiar" for such a new thing as Bitcoins. In any case, I found the statement surprising. Are ASICMiner staff frequently fending off extortion attacks as well?

Extortion is a constant worry already, bitcoin is just the latest "magic" way of earning money that others will want to take.

a couple examples:
http://thinkingchinese.com/the-dilemma-of-good-samaritans-in-contemporary-china
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/06/19/through-blackmail-and-extortion-chinese-hold-officials-in-line/
http://www.china.org.cn/china/2013-06/29/content_29268238.htm

[Rival]

Good day to own AM shares. Bad day to own anything based upon the expectation of delivery of Avalon products. Wifu stated that they will never take preorders again. It is unlikely they will bring new products to market before next year if they have to have them in-hand before selling them.

So far as I can see the only other ASICs currently being delivered are from BFL. While they are pumping them out at record numbers, they still have around a year of backlogs to work through.

AM remains the only source for ASIC delivered within a week of purchase. That's pretty much all anyone needs to know.

The days of pre-order are over, and anyone still taking pre-orders for anything should be considered incompetent at the best, and scammers at the worst.

Friedcat has once again proven why AM is in the drivers seat.

[btcbot]

Th'ar she blows!!!

And the whale is back!

[AMuppInTime]

Th'ar she blows!!!

And the whale is back!

are you talking about
13-08-09 15:48:34   Market Buy   2   ฿ 3.973   ฿ 7.946
2013-08-09 15:48:34   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.974   ฿ 3.974
2013-08-09 15:48:34   Market Buy   15   ฿ 3.975   ฿ 59.625
2013-08-09 15:48:33   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.939   ฿ 3.939
2013-08-09 15:48:33   Market Buy   3   ฿ 3.944   ฿ 11.832
2013-08-09 15:48:33   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.97   ฿ 3.97
2013-08-09 15:48:32   Market Buy   10   ฿ 3.9   ฿ 39
2013-08-09 15:48:32   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.9   ฿ 3.9
2013-08-09 15:48:32   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.91   ฿ 3.91
2013-08-09 15:48:31   Market Buy   2   ฿ 3.899   ฿ 7.798
?

[superduh]

baby whale who has $16k worth of coins

[btcbot]

Th'ar she blows!!!

And the whale is back!

are you talking about
13-08-09 15:48:34   Market Buy   2   ฿ 3.973   ฿ 7.946
2013-08-09 15:48:34   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.974   ฿ 3.974
2013-08-09 15:48:34   Market Buy   15   ฿ 3.975   ฿ 59.625
2013-08-09 15:48:33   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.939   ฿ 3.939
2013-08-09 15:48:33   Market Buy   3   ฿ 3.944   ฿ 11.832
2013-08-09 15:48:33   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.97   ฿ 3.97
2013-08-09 15:48:32   Market Buy   10   ฿ 3.9   ฿ 39
2013-08-09 15:48:32   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.9   ฿ 3.9
2013-08-09 15:48:32   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.91   ฿ 3.91
2013-08-09 15:48:31   Market Buy   2   ฿ 3.899   ฿ 7.798
?

Yeah, I think it just should have stalled at 4.00 for a while, but this looks like a planned range dump.  He'll try and raise the range over the next few days.  Between this and the Coinbase outage... wish I had a few more coins!

If the dude knew what he was doing, he'd just put a big 100+ sell at 4.10 and wait the world to come to him... the whole scene is amateur hour...

[AMuppInTime]

Yeah, I think it just should have stalled at 4.00 for a while, but this looks like a planned range dump.  He'll try and raise the range over the next few days.  Between this and the Coinbase outage... wish I had a few more coins!

If the dude knew what he was doing, he'd just put a big 100+ sell at 4.10 and wait the world to come to him... the whole scene is amateur hour...

but right after there was a matching move down:

2013-08-09 16:23:42   Market Sell   10   ฿ 3.8   ฿ 38
2013-08-09 16:23:41   Market Sell   10   ฿ 3.8   ฿ 38
2013-08-09 16:23:40   Market Sell   10   ฿ 3.802   ฿ 38.02
2013-08-09 16:23:40   Market Sell   3   ฿ 3.801   ฿ 11.403
2013-08-09 16:23:39   Market Sell   2   ฿ 3.853   ฿ 7.706
2013-08-09 16:23:39   Market Sell   3   ฿ 3.85   ฿ 11.55
2013-08-09 16:23:38   Market Sell   1   ฿ 3.854   ฿ 3.854

what does range dump mean? making the spread wider?

[btcbot]

Yeah, I think it just should have stalled at 4.00 for a while, but this looks like a planned range dump.  He'll try and raise the range over the next few days.  Between this and the Coinbase outage... wish I had a few more coins!

If the dude knew what he was doing, he'd just put a big 100+ sell at 4.10 and wait the world to come to him... the whole scene is amateur hour...

but right after there was a matching move down:

2013-08-09 16:23:42   Market Sell   10   ฿ 3.8   ฿ 38
2013-08-09 16:23:41   Market Sell   10   ฿ 3.8   ฿ 38
2013-08-09 16:23:40   Market Sell   10   ฿ 3.802   ฿ 38.02
2013-08-09 16:23:40   Market Sell   3   ฿ 3.801   ฿ 11.403
2013-08-09 16:23:39   Market Sell   2   ฿ 3.853   ฿ 7.706
2013-08-09 16:23:39   Market Sell   3   ฿ 3.85   ฿ 11.55
2013-08-09 16:23:38   Market Sell   1   ฿ 3.854   ฿ 3.854

what does range dump mean? making the spread wider?

I'm just talking out of my ass as a penny stock loser, but it looks like this guy knows how to get orders filled but doesn't know how to take advantage of momentum.   He's gone and fuckin' destroyed all the hype from the announcement.  He throws out a sell and it doesn't get filled and then another and another... it's idiotic.  

[bbxx]

dont worry, real price of AM shares is in Economy Marketplace Auctions

way above 4 now

[talz0r]

Does anyone care about the fractional shares offered on Havelock? (ASICM100)

What are the advantages of having one over the other?

[ahbartsch]

Does anyone care about the fractional shares offered on Havelock? (ASICM100)

What are the advantages of having one over the other?

Versus AM1? It's if you can't afford full shares.

[talz0r]

I'll throw in a crazy speculation... hey, wouldn't it be crazy if ASICMiner ran a steady business for the next 10 years? Everyone here casually assumes, understandably, that the risk is high and everything that exists today could be gone in a year or two, but what if it didn't? Can you imagine collecting 10 years of dividends from ASICMiner if they held onto 10% of the hashrate? What if bitcoins are worth a $10,000 USD each? That would be crazy. Not impossible though... consider that although many competitors are emerging, electricity and labor is still (almost) the cheapest in China. After everyone gets to the 15nm process (or whatever), the price of electricity/labor/taxes will pretty much determine who the major players are.

There, that's some pie-in-the-sky speculation for you.

hehehe     This is pretty much how I look at it too.

[btcbot]

I'll throw in a crazy speculation... hey, wouldn't it be crazy if ASICMiner ran a steady business for the next 10 years? Everyone here casually assumes, understandably, that the risk is high and everything that exists today could be gone in a year or two, but what if it didn't? Can you imagine collecting 10 years of dividends from ASICMiner if they held onto 10% of the hashrate? What if bitcoins are worth a $10,000 USD each? That would be crazy. Not impossible though... consider that although many competitors are emerging, electricity and labor is still (almost) the cheapest in China. After everyone gets to the 15nm process (or whatever), the price of electricity/labor/taxes will pretty much determine who the major players are.

There, that's some pie-in-the-sky speculation for you.

hehehe     This is pretty much how I look at it too.

In a lot of ways Friedcat himself seems to take a long view, too... good customer service, over-delivering, hefty dividends, never over-promising.  I suspect we'd get bought out before 10 years is up, though...