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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939295 times)
sethminer14
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January 29, 2015, 07:22:17 PM
 #2541

Actually we won't be in uncharted waters unless we fall under $69.  The fall from $32 to about $2 was approximately a 94% drop in value.  To do the same since the 2013 November peak, we'd have to drop under $69.  If Bitcoin drops that low, I would imagine it would be bought back up with the same/or greater force and speed.

You're in that regard, I was thinking about the length of this bear market. In July 2011, bubble popped and then found its bottom in 6 months. Another 6 months later there was a decent recovery from the lows. Its been over a year and we still dont know if we have found the bottom.

No kidding. These are hard times. Nobody knows what will happen next.

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jaredboice
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January 29, 2015, 08:27:29 PM
 #2542

Actually we won't be in uncharted waters unless we fall under $69.  The fall from $32 to about $2 was approximately a 94% drop in value.  To do the same since the 2013 November peak, we'd have to drop under $69.  If Bitcoin drops that low, I would imagine it would be bought back up with the same/or greater force and speed.

You're in that regard, I was thinking about the length of this bear market. In July 2011, bubble popped and then found its bottom in 6 months. Another 6 months later there was a decent recovery from the lows. Its been over a year and we still dont know if we have found the bottom.

It could also mean that the next bull market could be that much more spectacular with the spring coiling so tight for so long
Okurkabinladin
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February 01, 2015, 08:13:53 PM
Last edit: February 01, 2015, 09:00:26 PM by Okurkabinladin
 #2543

Could this be valid count? Too soon?



EDIT: Upper line is not random, its based on MasterLuc bearish trendline, that was unbroken since december 2013.
Okurkabinladin
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February 01, 2015, 09:25:41 PM
 #2544


Bulkowski on the 'shooting star':

Quote
Day traders that I know depend on the shooting star more often than I think they should, but my statistics are based on the daily charts, not intra day ones. I found that the shooting star candle acts as a bearish reversal 59% of the time. I consider that "near random" performance.

http://thepatternsite.com/ShootingStar.html

But that's his result for traditional markets. Possible that in BTC, shooting star is a better predictor.

This is not bearish reversal, though, as we didnt leave bear market in the first place. It could be merely continuation signal for existing trend.
windjc
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February 02, 2015, 04:04:32 AM
 #2545

So when do we acknowledge that this bear market is worse than 2011?

We're in uncharted waters.

 Sad

I'd say this bearmarket is officialy worse then 2011 bearmarket when we go sub 130 with no signs of recovery or sub 100

So $1200 ---> to $100 or 91% drop is worse than $32 ---> 2 or a 94% drop?

Or $100 value is < $2 value?

Is this what you are saying?
podyx
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February 02, 2015, 08:52:11 AM
 #2546

So when do we acknowledge that this bear market is worse than 2011?

We're in uncharted waters.

 Sad

I'd say this bearmarket is officialy worse then 2011 bearmarket when we go sub 130 with no signs of recovery or sub 100

So $1200 ---> to $100 or 91% drop is worse than $32 ---> 2 or a 94% drop?

Or $100 value is < $2 value?

Is this what you are saying?

The 2011 bear market only lasted like 6 months though, this has lasted 14-15 months, thats why.
ssmc2
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February 03, 2015, 05:01:00 PM
 #2547

Awaiting current thoughts from the Master...  Smiley
lebing
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February 03, 2015, 05:22:53 PM
 #2548

Awaiting current thoughts from the Master...  Smiley

Pretty much nothing to say until we go over 350 or under 160.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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February 07, 2015, 01:37:37 AM
 #2549

Should see big moves lower over the next week... might seem random, it's not.    It's just me unloading Tongue

freebit13
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February 07, 2015, 06:41:12 AM
 #2550


Bulkowski on the 'shooting star':

Quote
Day traders that I know depend on the shooting star more often than I think they should, but my statistics are based on the daily charts, not intra day ones. I found that the shooting star candle acts as a bearish reversal 59% of the time. I consider that "near random" performance.

http://thepatternsite.com/ShootingStar.html

But that's his result for traditional markets. Possible that in BTC, shooting star is a better predictor.

This is not bearish reversal, though, as we didnt leave bear market in the first place. It could be merely continuation signal for existing trend.
Looks like there could be a 2 line shooting star forming on the 1day chart on finex... bullish  Smiley

Decentralize EVERYTHING!
rosh
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February 07, 2015, 09:43:40 AM
 #2551

Actually we won't be in uncharted waters unless we fall under $69.  The fall from $32 to about $2 was approximately a 94% drop in value.  To do the same since the 2013 November peak, we'd have to drop under $69.  If Bitcoin were to drop that low, I would imagine it would be bought back up with the same/or greater force and speed.  IMHO, prices that low are a fantasy with all the venture capital and infrastructure being built.  However, this IS bitcoin.  Anything can happen.  With that said, we are probably just as likely to hit $400 next week as we are to hit $69. 

If we go below $69, there will be deathly silence in this forum.  Grin
jimbobway
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February 07, 2015, 08:03:14 PM
 #2552

Should see big moves lower over the next week... might seem random, it's not.    It's just me unloading Tongue

Buy high, sell low?  Or did you get in under $220?
key_z
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February 11, 2015, 11:25:07 PM
 #2553

Please note! If Current daily candle will be shooting star - there is a high chance price will revisit $100

ewwwww, it looks like this is gonna happen

buckle up and be a player  Cool

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masterluc
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February 14, 2015, 05:06:46 PM
 #2554

Probably there will be next attack on long term resistance (260-270)



pinky
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February 15, 2015, 03:40:21 PM
 #2555

Probably there will be next attack on long term resistance (260-270)


Bitcoin died just after the touch of the trendline.



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hdbuck
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February 15, 2015, 03:43:12 PM
 #2556

Probably there will be next attack on long term resistance (260-270)


Bitcoin died just after the touch of the trendline.

what my little pinky says.

TY luc for spot on short target
zoltanus
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February 15, 2015, 05:01:14 PM
 #2557

Probably there will be next attack on long term resistance (260-270)

So what now Luc? Seems this attack has failed
Phillis
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February 15, 2015, 06:42:14 PM
 #2558

Probably there will be next attack on long term resistance (260-270)

So what now Luc? Seems this attack has failed

down we go. Sad
pinky
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February 15, 2015, 06:55:45 PM
 #2559

Probably there will be next attack on long term resistance (260-270)

So what now Luc? Seems this attack has failed

down we go. Sad

Maybe. We are now between rising support and falling trendline. By the end of this month we shall see the resolution.



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masterluc
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February 15, 2015, 07:22:35 PM
 #2560

The big move is on the way due to this



Daily ADX suggests bullish kickstart



Weekly ADX shows depressing bearish activity



Daily macd shows a bullish hook



BUT. Any daily close bellow 208 (daily lower BB) will instantly activate further price drop. As well as any close above 254 will instantly activate bullish wedge breakout.

So I watch for daily BB borders.

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