Analysis

[Afrikoin]

Historical III is almost certain. As long as there was II, then there'll be III and IV and V. Logically. This is EW.

You missed the point. An impulse (Historical I) can be either a I or an A. There is nothing prima facie that determines that it was a I. So there is no evidence yet to determine whether we saw a Wave II or a Wave B. We won't be able to tell until we see an obvious Wave III.

Yes, it's possible that it was a II, but in terms of validity, there is nothing to indicate whether the grand structure is an impulse or a corrective.



Ah! ok, got it. Thanks

[molecular]

I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!

Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!

yep, as nov 2012 shown there was no any immediate market reaction. absolutely no one cared as far as i remember. But price bubbled few months earlier from 6 to 16.

Personally I think the market reaction will happen months (if not earlier) before the halving, this happened in 2012 and also happened at the current LTC halving (although some of it was just blatant pumping). It's a bit like buy the rumour, sell the news only slightly different :-P

yes, noone cared on halving day or plus/minus some weeks, but:

price also bubbled from 13 to 266 a few months after the halving.

imo there will be both:

• reaction before (people thinking ahead, market "pricing in") and
• reaction afterwards (real effect of supply halving takes hold)

imo the market does try to price in the halving effect but strongly underestimates it (even after having seen what happened last time).

If we look at depicted envelope of roughly 1 year around the halving, we can see the price went from ~$5 to ~$120. Will that repeat in that way? Probably not exactly, but I think it's likely we'll see a 10-bagger or more (seen from roughly $300 level). In that sense I contradict the 1-2 year sideways prediction (unless we include whole 2015 as "sideways in 200-300 range"), I think the "quiet period" will be shorter, maybe until spring '16.

(side-note: in the end everything is halving-induced because without halving we'd have unlimited supply and probably 0 value.)

[Miz4r]

I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!

Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!

yep, as nov 2012 shown there was no any immediate market reaction. absolutely no one cared as far as i remember. But price bubbled few months earlier from 6 to 16.

Personally I think the market reaction will happen months (if not earlier) before the halving, this happened in 2012 and also happened at the current LTC halving (although some of it was just blatant pumping). It's a bit like buy the rumour, sell the news only slightly different :-P

I do believe the market will react to the halving but it will not be at a time most people will expect it to happen. If most people expect something to happen at a certain time then the market will find a way to fool these people, otherwise most people would make easy money which is not how markets play out. LTC reacted strongly a couple months before their halving, at a time when most people expected something to happen much closer to the actual halving. Now maybe many people will expect BTC to also react a couple months before its halving just like LTC did, but BTC is unlikely to copy LTC here imo. I think we'll see the market price the halving in somewhere after the blocksize fork and before the halving. If the fork happens in January 2016 and the halving in July 2016 then maybe February 2016 we could expect to see a sudden big rally out of nowhere. But it could also happen much later maybe in June or July just to screw with people's minds and create doubt to make the weaker hands sell first.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!

Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!

yep, as nov 2012 shown there was no any immediate market reaction. absolutely no one cared as far as i remember. But price bubbled few months earlier from 6 to 16.

Personally I think the market reaction will happen months (if not earlier) before the halving, this happened in 2012 and also happened at the current LTC halving (although some of it was just blatant pumping). It's a bit like buy the rumour, sell the news only slightly different :-P

I do believe the market will react to the halving but it will not be at a time most people will expect it to happen. If most people expect something to happen at a certain time then the market will find a way to fool these people, otherwise most people would make easy money which is not how markets play out. LTC reacted strongly a couple months before their halving, at a time when most people expected something to happen much closer to the actual halving. Now maybe many people will expect BTC to also react a couple months before its halving just like LTC did, but BTC is unlikely to copy LTC here imo. I think we'll see the market price the halving in somewhere after the blocksize fork and before the halving. If the fork happens in January 2016 and the halving in July 2016 then maybe February 2016 we could expect to see a sudden big rally out of nowhere. But it could also happen much later maybe in June or July just to screw with people's minds and create doubt to make the weaker hands sell first.

I agree that the market likes to switch it up so it's not just easy for everyone to win. LTC is a perfect example. Halving occurred yesterday and LTC did nothing. Much of the pump 2 months ago was a ponzi playing the strings of those who expected a rally but were waiting to see conviction first. It was a perfectly timed and executed P&D and likely wore the market out well before the halving event actually went into effect, which is why we see a decline going into halving. Anything can happen with BTC and it may or may not face a similar situation come July.

On the other hand, BTC may have priced in two (or more) halvings with the bubble to 1200. There is no telling at this time, but if BTC were to have the same thing happen as LTC, then we can understand why you can't just assume that a halving should automatically double everyone's investment. Wouldn't that be too easy?

[moneymanagment]

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

[Afrikoin]

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

[madjules007]

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

[Fakhoury]

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

[madjules007]

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Like I said, one reason is sentiment. But surely TA supports this possibility. By all appearances, the $150-320 move over the past 7 months or so is a clear 3-swing correction. So if we put that into the context of the larger downtrend since $1100s, my guess is that we are in a bearish Z wave. If we are in a triple zig zag, then at a minimum I would look for a retest of the $150 level. The trouble there is that there has been so little price history in the $100s; below the high volume accumulation levels in the $200s, there is a liquidity vacuum. So even if the target were $150, liquidity and margin cascade could easily push us to low $100s or double digits.

[Fakhoury]

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Like I said, one reason is sentiment. But surely TA supports this possibility. By all appearances, the $150-320 move over the past 7 months or so is a clear 3-swing correction. So if we put that into the context of the larger downtrend since $1100s, my guess is that we are in a bearish Z wave. If we are in a triple zig zag, then at a minimum I would look for a retest of the $150 level. The trouble there is that there has been so little price history in the $100s; below the high volume accumulation levels in the $200s, there is a liquidity vacuum. So even if the target were $150, liquidity and margin cascade could easily push us to low $100s or double digits.

Thanks for elaboration, statistical talking, what is the % to hit ow $100's and double digits ?

[madjules007]

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Like I said, one reason is sentiment. But surely TA supports this possibility. By all appearances, the $150-320 move over the past 7 months or so is a clear 3-swing correction. So if we put that into the context of the larger downtrend since $1100s, my guess is that we are in a bearish Z wave. If we are in a triple zig zag, then at a minimum I would look for a retest of the $150 level. The trouble there is that there has been so little price history in the $100s; below the high volume accumulation levels in the $200s, there is a liquidity vacuum. So even if the target were $150, liquidity and margin cascade could easily push us to low $100s or double digits.

Thanks for elaboration, statistical talking, what is the % to hit ow $100's and double digits ?

It's really impossible to speculate on that. That's what I'm getting at by liquidity vacuum -- surely, there is much more demand for bitcoin in the $100s than is presently sitting on exchanges currently. However, that is irrelevant. In the case of a margin cascade below $160, thin books are thin books. By looking at swaps, we can only guess where margin calls are concentrated, since we only see the net outstanding swaps. So trying to speculate where that sell pressure would stop is really difficult.

But if I am looking at a retest of $150-160, and I know that fully margined positions from $230 will be liquidated by $160..... then I know that once we get to those levels, there could be great fuel for a selloff.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Like I said, one reason is sentiment. But surely TA supports this possibility. By all appearances, the $150-320 move over the past 7 months or so is a clear 3-swing correction. So if we put that into the context of the larger downtrend since $1100s, my guess is that we are in a bearish Z wave. If we are in a triple zig zag, then at a minimum I would look for a retest of the $150 level. The trouble there is that there has been so little price history in the $100s; below the high volume accumulation levels in the $200s, there is a liquidity vacuum. So even if the target were $150, liquidity and margin cascade could easily push us to low $100s or double digits.

+1
Everything except bulls says that double digits is possible. The fact that sentiment snaps back out of a bearish tone overnight if a large market buy goes over the ticker is a big reason... Sentiment hasn't been battered quite enough yet. There is no reason to see a doubling of price for a wave-1 (in 12 days) after an 18 month bear market. The sentiment of a wave-1 should be "This is just another dead cat bounce", and not only from the random 6-char newbs created today. It should be everyone wondering if it's even worth buying anymore. The few bulls that remain should be the ones that have to defend their position on the forum and have the burden of proof of why this time it's different. THAT's when sentiment has shifted enough to say a bottom is near, or in.

After a break of $152 (or whatever your exchange of choice' January low was) we have triangle support in the 115 area, then $50 (the first dump in April 2013) then it's at $32. There is nothing but horizontal supports remaining after that.

[Fakhoury]

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Like I said, one reason is sentiment. But surely TA supports this possibility. By all appearances, the $150-320 move over the past 7 months or so is a clear 3-swing correction. So if we put that into the context of the larger downtrend since $1100s, my guess is that we are in a bearish Z wave. If we are in a triple zig zag, then at a minimum I would look for a retest of the $150 level. The trouble there is that there has been so little price history in the $100s; below the high volume accumulation levels in the $200s, there is a liquidity vacuum. So even if the target were $150, liquidity and margin cascade could easily push us to low $100s or double digits.

Thanks for elaboration, statistical talking, what is the % to hit ow $100's and double digits ?

It's really impossible to speculate on that. That's what I'm getting at by liquidity vacuum -- surely, there is much more demand for bitcoin in the $100s than is presently sitting on exchanges currently. However, that is irrelevant. In the case of a margin cascade below $160, thin books are thin books. By looking at swaps, we can only guess where margin calls are concentrated, since we only see the net outstanding swaps. So trying to speculate where that sell pressure would stop is really difficult.

But if I am looking at a retest of $150-160, and I know that fully margined positions from $230 will be liquidated by $160..... then I know that once we get to those levels, there could be great fuel for a selloff.

When we can say that we are safe from double digits ?

Is double digits that dangerous for Bitcoin, or it would be temporary before we head up again ?

[madjules007]

When we can say that we are safe from double digits ?

Is double digits that dangerous for Bitcoin, or it would be temporary before we head up again ?

IMO, we could only say long after the bottom is in, once we have a clear reversal. On the 1D-3D timeframe, an impulsive move off those lows (say, in the low $100s) would at least indicate that we can expect another impulse to follow. It wouldn't mean double digits are gone forever, but it would at least indicate they we are in a new bullish cycle on that time frame. (It could of course be a bullish correction in a larger bearish trend as well)

No danger in double digits. Or single digits for that matter. Those that thing "bitcoin is dead" if we see double digits are just people who will be shaken out. Current price =/= existential failure of the protocol, nor down trending adoption. The latter two are what matter to me in determining bitcoin's long term future. I am a long term bull, to be clear.

[ssmc2]

What he's trying to tell you Fakhoury is that if you see double digits, consider it the buy of a lifetime. I know I will.

[smoothie]

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Like I said, one reason is sentiment. But surely TA supports this possibility. By all appearances, the $150-320 move over the past 7 months or so is a clear 3-swing correction. So if we put that into the context of the larger downtrend since $1100s, my guess is that we are in a bearish Z wave. If we are in a triple zig zag, then at a minimum I would look for a retest of the $150 level. The trouble there is that there has been so little price history in the $100s; below the high volume accumulation levels in the $200s, there is a liquidity vacuum. So even if the target were $150, liquidity and margin cascade could easily push us to low $100s or double digits.

+1
Everything except bulls says that double digits is possible. The fact that sentiment snaps back out of a bearish tone overnight if a large market buy goes over the ticker is a big reason... Sentiment hasn't been battered quite enough yet. There is no reason to see a doubling of price for a wave-1 (in 12 days) after an 18 month bear market. The sentiment of a wave-1 should be "This is just another dead cat bounce", and not only from the random 6-char newbs created today. It should be everyone wondering if it's even worth buying anymore. The few bulls that remain should be the ones that have to defend their position on the forum and have the burden of proof of why this time it's different. THAT's when sentiment has shifted enough to say a bottom is near, or in.

After a break of $152 (or whatever your exchange of choice' January low was) we have triangle support in the 115 area, then $50 (the first dump in April 2013) then it's at $32. There is nothing but horizontal supports remaining after that.

This is probably true.

[Fakhoury]

When we can say that we are safe from double digits ?

Is double digits that dangerous for Bitcoin, or it would be temporary before we head up again ?

IMO, we could only say long after the bottom is in, once we have a clear reversal. On the 1D-3D timeframe, an impulsive move off those lows (say, in the low $100s) would at least indicate that we can expect another impulse to follow. It wouldn't mean double digits are gone forever, but it would at least indicate they we are in a new bullish cycle on that time frame. (It could of course be a bullish correction in a larger bearish trend as well)

No danger in double digits. Or single digits for that matter. Those that thing "bitcoin is dead" if we see double digits are just people who will be shaken out. Current price =/= existential failure of the protocol, nor down trending adoption. The latter two are what matter to me in determining bitcoin's long term future. I am a long term bull, to be clear.

So we share the same ideaology, perfect.

How can we determine the bottom, as I knew, it's just a matter of specualtion no more, unless I missed something.

[Fakhoury]

What he's trying to tell you Fakhoury is that if you see double digits, consider it the buy of a lifetime. I know I will.

For the first time since being deeply involved in bitcoin scene, I felt sad that I missed the buy oppertunity of the lowest lows of $200.

Double/Single digits are my ultimate dream ever my friend, and yes, it's a lifetime buy.

I will never let this event pass out of my hands, don't worry

[madjules007]

The sentiment of a wave-1 should be "This is just another dead cat bounce", and not only from the random 6-char newbs created today. It should be everyone wondering if it's even worth buying anymore. The few bulls that remain should be the ones that have to defend their position on the forum and have the burden of proof of why this time it's different. THAT's when sentiment has shifted enough to say a bottom is near, or in.

Yes, I find that, in hindsight, Wave 1 is where I (and everyone else) don't expect the bottom is in. Usually my aim is to recognize when we have seen the impulse, then prepare to buy the first pullback. Actually buying during Wave 1 can be very dangerous, as that would be buying before we have actually seen an impulse. Then it could easily just be a dead cat bounce.

[BitofaN1]

When price dipped just below 200 two days ago,why didn't anyone push it even lower?
There were like 4k (1.5k on levarage) coins down to 150 or below @ Bitfinex.Very, very little resistance.In fact, many bulls already capitulated before that night.
Tens of thousands of coins were sold into bids all the way down from 300 and you're telling me 1.5k coins (on levarage) were just beyond the reach of every bearwhale out there? You've got to be shitting me!
You're probably realizing where I'm going with this. We didn't go much lower than 200, and probably never will, because market manipulators won't allow it.Right now they squeezed a crap load of longs, they will probably keep this current price range with occasional dips even below 200, then guess what? They'll do the opposite and squeeze the shorts.
Nothing new under the sun...
We need many more high rollers in this game so that gross manipulation of the market, the kind we see today, will become high risk - low reward, just like an attempt to gain control of the bitcoin network.