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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919569 times)
cAPSLOCK
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September 06, 2014, 12:42:29 AM
 #1801



So, if 2011 is any indication, we'll see another painful capitulation soon enough, then about a year of at best weak price increase, ending in about 600/700 if we're lucky.

But maybe GABI and COIN will save us! Because as everyone knows, HNIs love to throw funds into a downtrend.

/bearmood

So you agree with falling?

Who is falling?

This guy

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=336063

All his posts predict bitcoin will keep falling in value.

until it goes back up.

So you agree with Risinnnnng?
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Omikifuse
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September 06, 2014, 12:44:17 AM
 #1802



So, if 2011 is any indication, we'll see another painful capitulation soon enough, then about a year of at best weak price increase, ending in about 600/700 if we're lucky.

But maybe GABI and COIN will save us! Because as everyone knows, HNIs love to throw funds into a downtrend.

/bearmood

So you agree with falling?

Who is falling?

This guy

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=336063

All his posts predict bitcoin will keep falling in value.

until it goes back up.


When it goes back up he says it is dead cat bounce, and the price will go down again. He always says bitcoin will die, no exception

kevin08
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September 06, 2014, 12:46:41 AM
 #1803



So, if 2011 is any indication, we'll see another painful capitulation soon enough, then about a year of at best weak price increase, ending in about 600/700 if we're lucky.

But maybe GABI and COIN will save us! Because as everyone knows, HNIs love to throw funds into a downtrend.

/bearmood

So you agree with falling?

Who is falling?

This guy

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=336063

All his posts predict bitcoin will keep falling in value.

until it goes back up.

So you agree with Risinnnnng?

His name's riiiising, not Risinnnnng

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=368768
hdbuck
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September 06, 2014, 12:47:26 AM
 #1804



So, if 2011 is any indication, we'll see another painful capitulation soon enough, then about a year of at best weak price increase, ending in about 600/700 if we're lucky.

But maybe GABI and COIN will save us! Because as everyone knows, HNIs love to throw funds into a downtrend.

/bearmood

So you agree with falling?

Who is falling?

This guy

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=336063

All his posts predict bitcoin will keep falling in value.

until it goes back up.

So you agree with Risinnnnng?

I agree with falling, squeezing and rising yea ^^
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September 06, 2014, 12:49:29 AM
 #1805



So, if 2011 is any indication, we'll see another painful capitulation soon enough, then about a year of at best weak price increase, ending in about 600/700 if we're lucky.

But maybe GABI and COIN will save us! Because as everyone knows, HNIs love to throw funds into a downtrend.

/bearmood

So you agree with falling?

Who is falling?

This guy

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=336063

All his posts predict bitcoin will keep falling in value.

until it goes back up.

So you agree with Risinnnnng?

I agree with falling, squeezing and rising yea ^^

Who is squeezing?
h3speros
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September 06, 2014, 04:31:47 AM
Last edit: September 07, 2014, 10:07:42 AM by h3speros
 #1806

i come to see if masterluc have posted new wisdoms and all i can see is some crap about falling and rising

only crypto market predictions, no bullshit https://twitter.com/h3speros
oda.krell
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September 06, 2014, 01:01:40 PM
 #1807



So, if 2011 is any indication, we'll see another painful capitulation soon enough, then about a year of at best weak price increase, ending in about 600/700 if we're lucky.

But maybe GABI and COIN will save us! Because as everyone knows, HNIs love to throw funds into a downtrend.

/bearmood

So you agree with falling?

Who is falling?

This guy

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=336063

All his posts predict bitcoin will keep falling in value.

Don't understand the question or comparison then. If you read my other posts you will see that I'm long term optimistic for Bitcoin (and BTC price).

In my post, I pointed out that the last time we were this far below the SMA200 was in 2011. I don't think this means Bitcoin is doomed, and you will note I didn't say that either, but it definitely makes me wonder how long it'll take before we see the next uncontested rally.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
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masterluc
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September 08, 2014, 02:27:35 PM
 #1808

Huh, look at this. We're now pretty much exactly one full SD below the daily 200 SMA.
Bitcoin is faster than 200d bb =) There are far more than 5% candles close outside bands. So you either enlarge candle interval or make MA interval shorter.

I don't give here trading advices. Moreover, simply "buy" or "sell" is really bad trading advice. Because you need to know the target and stop loss points for your long or short positions.

At this time xbtusd failed to leave daily negative BB20 zone for two months and new move is on horizon.


oda.krell
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September 08, 2014, 02:58:14 PM
 #1809

Huh, look at this. We're now pretty much exactly one full SD below the daily 200 SMA.
Bitcoin is faster than 200d bb =) There are far more than 5% candles close outside bands. So you either enlarge candle interval or make MA interval shorter.

Huh? I don't get it... here's the daily SMA200 with bands at 1 standard deviation above and below plotted. Or, in other words, Bollinger Bands set to 200.

Mid August and now has daily candles close below the lower band. My point was, that's the first time this has happened since 2011.

(And I'm pretty sure of that, went back to look at the old mtgox data to confirm.)


So, I'm not sure what you meant: I am wrong with my claim ("first time since 2011"), or do you mean I'm using too slow settings?


Nevermind. Pretty sure you meant "Don't rely on BB200, it's too slow for BTC." Correct?

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
masterluc
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September 08, 2014, 03:46:11 PM
 #1810

BB shows 1 x σ, but in a case of 200 d/bb there should be 2 x σ bands or even 3 x σ.

Yep, i see it useless. Except MA of course.

masterluc
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September 08, 2014, 04:52:17 PM
 #1811

$NATGAS at strong support. Outstanding rally probably expected.



Gold is one step from free fall.


Carra23
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September 08, 2014, 08:30:49 PM
 #1812

But what about Bitcoin, masterluc?
masterluc
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September 08, 2014, 08:34:26 PM
 #1813

nothing changed. still bearish.

oda.krell
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September 08, 2014, 09:02:13 PM
 #1814

BB shows 1 x σ, but in a case of 200 d/bb there should be 2 x σ bands or even 3 x σ.

Yep, i see it useless. Except MA of course.

Thanks for the clarification.

And I got your "5% of candles" comment as well now, I think. As in: if less than 5% of the candles are outside the bands, the bands are moving too slow.

I'm a bit slow on the uptake sometimes Cheesy

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
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lebing
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September 08, 2014, 11:25:47 PM
 #1815

I agree that technically bitcoin looks in pretty bad shape.

I want to make sure reading this thread here (which is quite good btw Lucif) is not making their trading decisions based solely on technical information alone. The paypal news today is something that the community has been waiting for since I joined this forum. This is the moment when we change from might be... to will be a major player in commerce of the future. Because of the technical bearishness of the last year or so I think people are not registering how large of a shift this actually is. In the not so far off future that will certainly change and morph into the euphoria we (those who have been around here for a few years) have all become accustomed to and the price will follow suit. Ignore the fundamentals at your own peril.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
masterluc
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September 09, 2014, 04:18:04 AM
 #1816

I agree that technically bitcoin looks in pretty bad shape.

I want to make sure reading this thread here (which is quite good btw Lucif) is not making their trading decisions based solely on technical information alone. The paypal news today is something that the community has been waiting for since I joined this forum. This is the moment when we change from might be... to will be a major player in commerce of the future. Because of the technical bearishness of the last year or so I think people are not registering how large of a shift this actually is. In the not so far off future that will certainly change and morph into the euphoria we (those who have been around here for a few years) have all become accustomed to and the price will follow suit. Ignore the fundamentals at your own peril.
Oh well, I just specially opened this thread to send my greetings to "news traders" and saw this =)

xbtusd is in medium-term bearish zone, it didn't escaped from daily and weekly red area still. Even with such moon fundamental news.

So far....

Maybe people just tired to buy so the market doesn't give a fuck to even paypal?  Grin Or probably aunt Yellen tired to print? Or wait... probably true financial armageddon is on a table and whales just want to get their $$$ back, primary from emerging markets. Or even put all together...

Anyway, you are talking about fundamentals of bitcoin, but you don't take into account The World Financial Fundamentals, 100s trillions dollars fundamentals which prepare to sudden change.

But everything may change quickly. Welcome to times of great changes, which hated by every chinese. I still don't beleive I outlived two destructions of motherland. But much more is ahead for all of you. Rothschilds will win this time.

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September 09, 2014, 03:57:39 PM
 #1817

I agree that technically bitcoin looks in pretty bad shape.

I want to make sure reading this thread here (which is quite good btw Lucif) is not making their trading decisions based solely on technical information alone. The paypal news today is something that the community has been waiting for since I joined this forum. This is the moment when we change from might be... to will be a major player in commerce of the future. Because of the technical bearishness of the last year or so I think people are not registering how large of a shift this actually is. In the not so far off future that will certainly change and morph into the euphoria we (those who have been around here for a few years) have all become accustomed to and the price will follow suit. Ignore the fundamentals at your own peril.
Oh well, I just specially opened this thread to send my greetings to "news traders" and saw this =)

xbtusd is in medium-term bearish zone, it didn't escaped from daily and weekly red area still. Even with such moon fundamental news.

So far....

Maybe people just tired to buy so the market doesn't give a fuck to even paypal?  Grin Or probably aunt Yellen tired to print? Or wait... probably true financial armageddon is on a table and whales just want to get their $$$ back, primary from emerging markets. Or even put all together...

Anyway, you are talking about fundamentals of bitcoin, but you don't take into account The World Financial Fundamentals, 100s trillions dollars fundamentals which prepare to sudden change.

But everything may change quickly. Welcome to times of great changes, which hated by every chinese. I still don't beleive I outlived two destructions of motherland. But much more is ahead for all of you. Rothschilds will win this time.

Im not sure if we use the same macro level fundamentals,  but I absolutely do include my own. This is especially why bitcoin is poised to do do well. Just the effect of fatca alone in the comung years creates a vacuum which will gleefully suck that right into its hungry mouth.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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September 09, 2014, 05:05:06 PM
 #1818

Price has this funny way of sneaking up on a new low. Daily median already lower than on August 18/19, but current low still above the low of that day.

Happens more often, I think, last time in late March/early April, with one more capitulation (and new low) shortly afterwards.





Now, tell me why my analysis sucks, lucif Tongue

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
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September 09, 2014, 06:19:50 PM
 #1819

Price has this funny way of sneaking up on a new low. Daily median already lower than on August 18/19, but current low still above the low of that day.

Happens more often, I think, last time in late March/early April, with one more capitulation (and new low) shortly afterwards.





Now, tell me why my analysis sucks, lucif Tongue

great find, avg price can be telling sometimes, this might be useful in uptrends also

only crypto market predictions, no bullshit https://twitter.com/h3speros
JustAnotherSheep
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September 10, 2014, 09:43:23 AM
 #1820

Looks like lower lows will have to wait for now



Last time there was bullish div on 4h was just before the rise from $440. This time it's also compounded with the PayPal news (although I'm not sure how much, if any, effect that will have).

Also unrelated, SierraChart is amazing Grin Can't believe how much smoother it runs compared to the memory hog TradingView.

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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