Analysis

[oda.krell]

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

Ah, now you're being silly. First, I want us to see below 700 for a bit before I say that one is good for gone. Then, retesting 550 will be interesting (bitstamp prices. always bitstamp prices). Finally, 340. Interesting times ahead.

[seleme]

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

we both know you're not going anywhere...

Its his party... He can cry if he wants to.   

I prefer him around though.  And internet suicides are always overvalued.

no I mean in as much as he provides brilliant analysis he also instills fear on purpose imo

 

[samurai1200]

Recapping, mostly for my own reference:

Sell when/before a whale does, catch the knife, ride out the bull trap, sell on the market-order-frenzy peak, then buy when the dust settles. Easy right?  

Step 1. sell
Step 2. catch (buy)
Step 3. ride (--> sell)
Step 4. buy



I hope I'm right! Go fractals!

[edit] SORRY these numbers don't have anything to do with EW theory. Please don't confuse  

So I guess the logical extension of this conversation is... where does #3 land? My guess is 850-900 based on price ranging through this weekend, though volume was pretty low even for a weekend, so that may not be accurate. And yes, #4 should be somewhere in the twilight zone. I would consider $500 reasonably safe based on price action Nov 19-20. I would consider $315 nearly indestructible, and $266 psychologically indestructible. However, momentum may carry us past some of these points for brief periods.

All prices in Gox.

And to keep things in perspective, please notice the double-exponential (exponential on a log scale) over the past couple years:

[Lady_Luck]

Hi Samurai

I'm not trying to say when to buy or sell, but up to now that the general shape I expect.
I don't think it can overlap and go above 850 on gox, support has probably turned into resistance.


https://i.imgur.com/SkYWkTe.png

[Odalv]

[Wekkel]

So, where are we?

[lebing]

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

we both know you're not going anywhere...

Its his party... He can cry if he wants to.   

I prefer him around though.  And internet suicides are always overvalued.

Why should he cry? He is one of the few guys here, who consistently made money, playing this market.

You havent been around long enough to know that that statement is simply not true. He got badly burned a few times turning bearish when he underestimated the honey badger. I dont see this case as any different than that time period.

[oda.krell]

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

we both know you're not going anywhere...

Its his party... He can cry if he wants to.  

I prefer him around though.  And internet suicides are always overvalued.

Why should he cry? He is one of the few guys here, who consistently made money, playing this market.

You havent been around long enough to know that that statement is simply not true. He got badly burned a few times turning bearish when he underestimated the honey badger. I dont see this case as any different than that time period.

Quoted for truth (sorry for the memespeak).


The newcomers to this thread need to understand one thing about (master)luc(if):

The guy is, as far as we can tell, a pretty competent trader, but he made wrong calls as well in the past. Which means he's not infallible, and/or he sometimes has a different goal in mind when he posts, i.e. he withholds something he knows or believes on purpose.


Shock! Gasp! Someone on the Internet might have an ulterior motive! Why I never would have imagined that!

[T.Stuart]

I have a sneaking suspicion that there are just as many analysts keeping quiet as they make losses. The short-term movements seem difficult to predict, no matter how many different types of charts get wheeled out (and of course in the end one of them will probably be right and we will certainly hear about it if it is). For everyone who pipes up after a crash claiming to have "caught the knife" there are more who didn't manage it despite analysis.

Please excuse my layman's bullshit intuition 

[ft73]

The newcomers to this thread need to understand one thing about (master)luc(if):
The guy is, as far as we can tell, a pretty competent trader, but he made wrong calls as well in the past. Which means he's not infallible, and/or he sometimes has a different goal in mind when he posts, i.e. he withholds something he knows or believes on purpose.

Shock! Gasp! Someone on the Internet might have an ulterior motive! Why I never would have imagined that!

I think nobody is infallible, yet his last call was spot on.

[seleme]

The newcomers to this thread need to understand one thing about (master)luc(if):
The guy is, as far as we can tell, a pretty competent trader, but he made wrong calls as well in the past. Which means he's not infallible, and/or he sometimes has a different goal in mind when he posts, i.e. he withholds something he knows or believes on purpose.

Shock! Gasp! Someone on the Internet might have an ulterior motive! Why I never would have imagined that!

I think nobody is infallible, yet his last call was spot on.

His last call was nothing special at all, many, many people guessed it.

His call for rally was very, very impressive though. He is speaking utter nonsense now though though and want to turn his followers to help market moves in his direction.

[Wekkel]

Relax, take a deep breath and realize this is just your interpretation. Not his words.

[oda.krell]

[...]

I think nobody is infallible, yet his last call was spot on.

His last call was nothing special at all, many, many people guessed it.

His call for rally was very, very impressive though. He is speaking utter nonsense now though though and want to turn his followers to help market moves in his direction.

On shaky ground? Maybe. "Utter nonsense"? No, absolutely not. If you absolutely cannot comprehend the possibility anymore that bitcoin price might enter a multi-month-to-a-year bear market, you should re-evaluate.

[lebing]

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?

Edit:

Heres an imaginary line.

[MAbtc]

[...]

I think nobody is infallible, yet his last call was spot on.

His last call was nothing special at all, many, many people guessed it.

His call for rally was very, very impressive though. He is speaking utter nonsense now though though and want to turn his followers to help market moves in his direction.

On shaky ground? Maybe. "Utter nonsense"? No, absolutely not. If you absolutely cannot comprehend the possibility anymore that bitcoin price might enter a multi-month-to-a-year bear market, you should re-evaluate.

Agreed. Not gonna bet too much on it, though.

[oda.krell]

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?

Edit:

Heres an imaginary line.

It's almost as if you're personally offended by the fact that we think price is going to go down further. Are you maybe a tiiiiny bit overinvested?

Re: your graph. Yes, I agree, that's a possible line of support. Will it hold? I don't know. I wouldn't bet on it

[maz]

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?

Edit:

Heres an imaginary line.

It's almost as if you're personally offended by the fact that we think price is going to go down further. Are you maybe a tiiiiny bit overinvested?

Re: your graph. Yes, I agree, that's a possible line of support. Will it hold? I don't know. I wouldn't bet on it

It's a common theme felt by 'bears' on these forums. Bulls are often offended at someone for being objective whilst evaluating the possible direction the price could be heading. I believe it was someone in this thread that said bitcoin has an amazing ability to exceed expectations both up and down. We should never allow our personal invested position to cloud our judgement when attempting to rationally evaluate the situation.

In response to lebing, As you are obviously a bit bullish, perhaps the burden of proof during this price decline is for you to prove to us, why we should start thinking the price will stop going down, and start going up? Something more helpful than an imaginary line would be nice!

[lebing]

In response to lebing, As you are obviously a bit bullish, perhaps the burden of proof during this price decline is for you to prove to us, why we should start thinking the price will stop going down, and start going up? Something more helpful than an imaginary line would be nice!

Well, I dont make bets on short term movements with bitcoin generally speaking, but time has shown repeatedly just how dangerous it is to bet against bitcoin in the medium/ long term.

The reason why I think this line will hold is simply because its a very different world for bitcoin now than it was 6 months ago in terms of acceptance/ consciousness and overall momentum (The details have been repeated ad infitum elsewhere). Therefore it simply makes more sense from a fundamental perspective that it would continue to go up rather than down. There is simply no reason fundamentally why we should continue to go down. The correction from the bad news on China is already very much baked in imo.

[lebing]

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?

Edit:

Heres an imaginary line.

It's almost as if you're personally offended by the fact that we think price is going to go down further. Are you maybe a tiiiiny bit overinvested?

Re: your graph. Yes, I agree, that's a possible line of support. Will it hold? I don't know. I wouldn't bet on it

I actually stand to make quite a bit of money should the price go say under 500 however I simply do not see any rational reason why that will happen.

[windjc]

[...]

I think nobody is infallible, yet his last call was spot on.

His last call was nothing special at all, many, many people guessed it.

His call for rally was very, very impressive though. He is speaking utter nonsense now though though and want to turn his followers to help market moves in his direction.

On shaky ground? Maybe. "Utter nonsense"? No, absolutely not. If you absolutely cannot comprehend the possibility anymore that bitcoin price might enter a multi-month-to-a-year bear market, you should re-evaluate.

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.