Analysis

[oda.krell]

I actually stand to make quite a bit of money should the price go say under 500 however I simply do not see any rational reason why that will happen.

I think you screwed up your post above... otherwise I said stuff I never remember having said :P

Anyway. There's noting rational about this market anyway. Or any market, ever. The only irrational thing is for individuals to somehow think they can "argue" with the market, as if there's a chance they could convince it to go in a more rational direction.

The only thing we have is to judge what is going on is TA, gauging market sentiment, maybe some fundamental analysis. And it looks like we've reached different conclusions based on what we see. You seem to believe in a very quick recovery, faster than ever before (remember: the April recovery was already pretty fast, much faster than the slow correction in 2011).

My view is different: based on the (admittedly short) history of Bitcoin trading there is no occurrence of such a sharp drop being just "shaken off" by the market, and the rally continuing afterwards. You could argue that August 2013 was such a case, but the volatility then was much much lower than the really sharp drops we saw in 2011, April and now (see BBW below). I think it is more likely we will either repeat April (a few more bounces post peak, then a relatively short downtrend of about a month or two), or, if we're unlucky, another 2011 (long, drawn out downtrend, which is probably the scenario lucif puts forward)

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[oda.krell]

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.

Guy said no such thing. Quote: "Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year." That's all.

[humanitee]

I thought you guys were talking about Lucif for a second, lol. Uncannily similar.

[CryptoLenin]

Luc luc luc - madness  He is in Fiat now, so his desire for long bear market is normal )

[accord01]

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?

Edit:

Heres an imaginary line.

Lol at that line, great use of imagination though, nonetheless... and displays your optimistic personality.

[cAPSLOCK]

Right here it start to look nasty...  Take a deep breath and get ready toride,.   

[windjc]

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.

Guy said no such thing. Quote: "Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year." That's all.

Ummm. That's 3-4 years away. Ok maybe 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 years.

He also implied that bitcoin would suffer until then.

[waveaddict]

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.

Guy said no such thing. Quote: "Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year." That's all.

Ummm. That's 3-4 years away. Ok maybe 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 years.

He also implied that bitcoin would suffer until then.

Why do you believe that a 3-4 year bear market will kill bitcoin? Isn't it just as easy to argue that a bear market will force innovation within the bitcoin ecosystem which would make way for a much larger bull market later down the line? IMO, there is no reason why you cannot be bullish on the future of bitcoin yet bearish on the price for a period of time.

[windjc]

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.

Guy said no such thing. Quote: "Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year." That's all.

Ummm. That's 3-4 years away. Ok maybe 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 years.

He also implied that bitcoin would suffer until then.

Why do you believe that a 3-4 year bear market will kill bitcoin? Isn't it just as easy to argue that a bear market will force innovation within the bitcoin ecosystem which would make way for a much larger bull market later down the line? IMO, there is no reason why you cannot be bullish on the future of bitcoin yet bearish on the price for a period of time.

Well what are we considering a bear market? When I think of a bear market, or an untradable market (if you don't do shorts) I think of a market trending downward. So if bitcoin trends downward for 3 years, then I have to imagine a world where nothing significantly signals it to go higher. As it is an emerging technology, this implies to me that Bitcoin is failing at integration as a payment processor, currency and/or commodity investment vehicle.

For instance, if Bitcoin takes a prolonged route of the 2011 crash that resolved itself in about a year a half, this means that over the next 3 years bitcoin bleeds from $700 to roughly $40-$60 (as in 2011 it started at $5 and ended at $2 or 60% lower than where the rise began. So this rally started at $125 it would end at $40-$60).  

So for this to happen, what has happened to bitcoin as a currency?  Well bitpay and other future competitors surely arent successful at their goals in this scenario. No big business has started accepting bitcoin. I assume no large adoption of bitcoin as payments has been done. No killer app(s).

As a commodity?  At $40-$60, it has now lost 93% of its value. So it has failed there.

As a payment processor? I assume no real adaption at this level commercially?

So, in this scenario, Bitcoin is less than what it is today AND it is no longer an "emerging" technology.

I contend that if Bitcoin is going to prosper we need at least another 12-18 months of mass adoption and acceptance. We are not close to the levels we need for sustainability.  If Bitcoin follows the route I've outlined, based on what some are suggesting in this thread, then for all intents and purposes it will die, and at the very least probably be replaced with some other digital currency.

[Odalv]

A brief look at three of Bitcoins bubbles. I've kept the charts as easy for everyone to understand. I have decided no moving averages or other indicator apart from volume and fibs, I feel this makes things a little easier on every ones eyes. 

Please make a note of the percentage increase from base to summit on each chart. Please also make a note of the fib where price begins too recover and subsequently move higher.

My BET is .. The "bear" market (consolidation) will not last more than 3 months. ( and price will not fail under $500 ) ... but who knows ? ( $68/BTC at the end of this year is good for me ... I'm sure bitcoin will survive at least next 5 years ... and 550% is minimum growth per year )

[pera]

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?

Edit:

Heres an imaginary line.

it seems we just crossed that trend.

[waveaddict]

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.

Guy said no such thing. Quote: "Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year." That's all.

Ummm. That's 3-4 years away. Ok maybe 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 years.

He also implied that bitcoin would suffer until then.

Why do you believe that a 3-4 year bear market will kill bitcoin? Isn't it just as easy to argue that a bear market will force innovation within the bitcoin ecosystem which would make way for a much larger bull market later down the line? IMO, there is no reason why you cannot be bullish on the future of bitcoin yet bearish on the price for a period of time.

Well what are we considering a bear market? When I think of a bear market, or an untradable market (if you don't do shorts) I think of a market trending downward. So if bitcoin trends downward for 3 years, then I have to imagine a world where nothing significantly signals it to go higher. As it is an emerging technology, this implies to me that Bitcoin is failing at integration as a payment processor, currency and/or commodity investment vehicle.

For instance, if Bitcoin takes a prolonged route of the 2011 crash that resolved itself in about a year a half, this means that over the next 3 years bitcoin bleeds from $700 to roughly $40-$60 (as in 2011 it started at $5 and ended at $2 or 60% lower than where the rise began. So this rally started at $125 it would end at $40-$60).  

So for this to happen, what has happened to bitcoin as a currency?  Well bitpay and other future competitors surely arent successful at their goals in this scenario. No big business has started accepting bitcoin. I assume no large adoption of bitcoin as payments has been done. No killer app(s).

As a commodity?  At $40-$60, it has now lost 93% of its value. So it has failed there.

As a payment processor? I assume no real adaption at this level commercially?

So, in this scenario, Bitcoin is less than what it is today AND it is no longer an "emerging" technology.

I contend that if Bitcoin is going to prosper we need at least another 12-18 months of mass adoption and acceptance. We are not close to the levels we need for sustainability.  If Bitcoin follows the route I've outlined, based on what some are suggesting in this thread, then for all intents and purposes it will die, and at the very least probably be replaced with some other digital currency.

Okay...but, IMO, you're making a giant assumption here. Why does bitcoin need another 12-18 months of mass adoption and acceptance to prosper longer term? That seems very arbitrary. Even so, why must it be completely accepted and/or reach sustainability now (within 12-18 months) instead of after a couple of years if not decades. Are we really in that much of a hurry? If bitcoin is truly as revolutionary as we'd like to assume, it's not going anywhere. Patience. Rome wasn't built in a day and neither was the internet. Also, I'm pretty sure the vast majority of alternative digital currencies trade with bitcoin, so maybe a great bear market is needed to seperate the wheat from the chaff.

2011 was a great example of how bitcoin not only survived a prolonged crash but came out even stronger. Whose to say that the same thing can't happen again?

[YoYa]

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.

Guy said no such thing. Quote: "Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year." That's all.

Ummm. That's 3-4 years away. Ok maybe 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 years.

He also implied that bitcoin would suffer until then.

Why do you believe that a 3-4 year bear market will kill bitcoin? Isn't it just as easy to argue that a bear market will force innovation within the bitcoin ecosystem which would make way for a much larger bull market later down the line? IMO, there is no reason why you cannot be bullish on the future of bitcoin yet bearish on the price for a period of time.

Well what are we considering a bear market? When I think of a bear market, or an untradable market (if you don't do shorts) I think of a market trending downward. So if bitcoin trends downward for 3 years, then I have to imagine a world where nothing significantly signals it to go higher. As it is an emerging technology, this implies to me that Bitcoin is failing at integration as a payment processor, currency and/or commodity investment vehicle.

For instance, if Bitcoin takes a prolonged route of the 2011 crash that resolved itself in about a year a half, this means that over the next 3 years bitcoin bleeds from $700 to roughly $40-$60 (as in 2011 it started at $5 and ended at $2 or 60% lower than where the rise began. So this rally started at $125 it would end at $40-$60).  

So for this to happen, what has happened to bitcoin as a currency?  Well bitpay and other future competitors surely arent successful at their goals in this scenario. No big business has started accepting bitcoin. I assume no large adoption of bitcoin as payments has been done. No killer app(s).

As a commodity?  At $40-$60, it has now lost 93% of its value. So it has failed there.

As a payment processor? I assume no real adaption at this level commercially?

So, in this scenario, Bitcoin is less than what it is today AND it is no longer an "emerging" technology.

I contend that if Bitcoin is going to prosper we need at least another 12-18 months of mass adoption and acceptance. We are not close to the levels we need for sustainability.  If Bitcoin follows the route I've outlined, based on what some are suggesting in this thread, then for all intents and purposes it will die, and at the very least probably be replaced with some other digital currency.

Okay...but, IMO, you're making a giant assumption here. Why does bitcoin need another 12-18 months of mass adoption and acceptance to prosper longer term? That seems very arbitrary. Even so, why must it be completely accepted and/or reach sustainability now (within 12-18 months) instead of after a couple of years if not decades. Are we really in that much of a hurry? If bitcoin is truly as revolutionary as we'd like to assume, it's not going anywhere. Patience. Rome wasn't built in a day and neither was the internet. Also, I'm pretty sure the vast majority of alternative digital currencies trade with bitcoin, so maybe a great bear market is needed to seperate the wheat from the chaff.

2011 was a great example of how bitcoin not only survived a prolonged crash but came out even stronger. Whose to say that the same thing can't happen again?

Thanks dude, these have been the measured words of reason lost on the bulls and bears of exuberance. So long as the protocol holds, the future is bright, bumps and all...the trick is to navigate the conditions.

[Lady_Luck]

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?
Edit:
Heres an imaginary line.

I don't consider people in here either bullish or bearish, that's why one of the greatest quality of people such as Masterluc or Brisance is to be reluctant at giving mid-term to long term price target. It's more about sharing opinion on the more probable scenario.  
Nothing's wrong with failure, sitting one out or thinking that price are more likely to decline than rise.
Respecting your fellow trader is essential, whatever method they use.

A common opinion seem to be that it's risky to not own bitcoin, while it's mostly true, I personally would prefer loosing a dozen on a bad downtrend  call, and buying back higher, when I actually have a confirmation of support below this new entry price. Right now, I haven't seen this confirmation yet.
So once again, to people commenting here, please again, understand there is nothing wrong with being cautious. It's not an antonym for bullish, but being prepare and open to various case scenario.

[samurai1200]

Less talky more techy!

[windjc]

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.

Guy said no such thing. Quote: "Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year." That's all.

Ummm. That's 3-4 years away. Ok maybe 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 years.

He also implied that bitcoin would suffer until then.

Why do you believe that a 3-4 year bear market will kill bitcoin? Isn't it just as easy to argue that a bear market will force innovation within the bitcoin ecosystem which would make way for a much larger bull market later down the line? IMO, there is no reason why you cannot be bullish on the future of bitcoin yet bearish on the price for a period of time.

Well what are we considering a bear market? When I think of a bear market, or an untradable market (if you don't do shorts) I think of a market trending downward. So if bitcoin trends downward for 3 years, then I have to imagine a world where nothing significantly signals it to go higher. As it is an emerging technology, this implies to me that Bitcoin is failing at integration as a payment processor, currency and/or commodity investment vehicle.

For instance, if Bitcoin takes a prolonged route of the 2011 crash that resolved itself in about a year a half, this means that over the next 3 years bitcoin bleeds from $700 to roughly $40-$60 (as in 2011 it started at $5 and ended at $2 or 60% lower than where the rise began. So this rally started at $125 it would end at $40-$60).  

So for this to happen, what has happened to bitcoin as a currency?  Well bitpay and other future competitors surely arent successful at their goals in this scenario. No big business has started accepting bitcoin. I assume no large adoption of bitcoin as payments has been done. No killer app(s).

As a commodity?  At $40-$60, it has now lost 93% of its value. So it has failed there.

As a payment processor? I assume no real adaption at this level commercially?

So, in this scenario, Bitcoin is less than what it is today AND it is no longer an "emerging" technology.

I contend that if Bitcoin is going to prosper we need at least another 12-18 months of mass adoption and acceptance. We are not close to the levels we need for sustainability.  If Bitcoin follows the route I've outlined, based on what some are suggesting in this thread, then for all intents and purposes it will die, and at the very least probably be replaced with some other digital currency.

Okay...but, IMO, you're making a giant assumption here. Why does bitcoin need another 12-18 months of mass adoption and acceptance to prosper longer term? That seems very arbitrary. Even so, why must it be completely accepted and/or reach sustainability now (within 12-18 months) instead of after a couple of years if not decades. Are we really in that much of a hurry? If bitcoin is truly as revolutionary as we'd like to assume, it's not going anywhere. Patience. Rome wasn't built in a day and neither was the internet. Also, I'm pretty sure the vast majority of alternative digital currencies trade with bitcoin, so maybe a great bear market is needed to seperate the wheat from the chaff.

2011 was a great example of how bitcoin not only survived a prolonged crash but came out even stronger. Whose to say that the same thing can't happen again?

Because bitcoin is a protocol. Its technology is not, by itself, easily adapted into our world. Bitcoin NEEDS an eco system. That eco system is dependent upon great minds and hundreds of millions of dollars into research and development.  Bitcoin isn't going to just magically create the tools needed for its success. For the great minds to spend a prolonged amount of time in developing the eco-system, they have to see progress. If bitcoin fails at a currency and commodity investment over the next 3 years, then it won't be sufficient progress.

You say the internet wasn't built in a day. True enough. However, if the internet had had a value associated with it, it would not have had a 3 year bear market at age 3. It grew exponentially as a disruptive technology should.

Now $1200 arrived a lot sooner than most of us anticipated. But with this rise, there comes a certain level of expectations.  And if bitcoin is $40 3 years from now, it will have missed all current expectations and the great minds coming on board and the money into development will not be here then.

What is people's fascination with comparing this to 2011?  The rise was not as great first of all. That market rose almost 3500%. This was much less. Bitcoin's place in the world was completely different.

Bitcoin no longer exists in a vacuum. Like it or not, ready or not, bitcoin is now a known entity in the world.

Sure we can have a bear market for some months. Maybe we dont go back to $1200 in 2014. Ok. But sometime in the next 3 years there needs to be another rally. Because its expected.

Why is it expected? I can go on and on. But if bitcoin is going to become mainstream, it needs to be embrassed by Wall Street. If Wall Street is given the opportunity to invest in bitcion and does not (and to sustain a bear market, they simply cannot invest, even in relatively small amounts), then I would consider that a very bad sign for bitcoins adoption.

[YoYa]

Why is it expected? I can go on and on. But if bitcoin is going to become mainstream, it needs to be embarrassed by Wall Street. If Wall Street is given the opportunity to invest in bitcion and does not (and to sustain a bear market, they simply cannot invest, even in relatively small amounts), then I would consider that a very bad sign for bitcoins adoption.

Reality can often be more banal than you expect. BOA report - real value - 1300.....A very conservative professional assessment...the kind that ensure you keep your job and that would have you hated on btctalk and reddit. But that's life, hopefully we'll see the heights, but nothing is certain and this may be a more muted affair than we expect.

I for one am more than satisfied with this journey so far, and plan to make the best of it moon or bust.

[windjc]

To be honest I don't know what half of you people are doing here.

One half bitches about master lucs projections the other half bitches about imaginary lines.

This thread is an analysis thread not a philosophical bitch thread. If you don't like "imaginary lines" if you don't like peoples projections fuck off. Plain and simple.

Take your female that time of the month period bullshit and fuck off.

This is meant to be a place where people share ideas about Bitcoin analysis, if you can't counter arguments here in a constructive manner showing your own talent for technical analysis then start your very own bitch thread where you can bitch all day to people who give a shit.

Plain and simple.

I love your charts. But if someone is going to ask me questions, I am going to respond. But, by all means, Ill be quiet and let you post.

[samurai1200]

Amen!

I have to say that I did not expect so much support @ $700 gox. It's been nearly 24 hours.

[windjc]

I think if China breaks support at 3200, then its probably going to 3000 fairly quickly and 2500 eventually.