rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Biodom]

we will see 5000 this year
next year ATH at least 10000, probably higher (20000 - 50000)

I don't see how $5000 is possible, but I am not a betting man.

I don't think 5000 USD/BTC is likely to occur in 2014. I'd be willing to bet €1000 against that.

I don't think that you would find many takers at any reasonable odds.

[epilido]

I don't think 5000 USD/BTC is likely to occur in 2014. I'd be willing to bet €1000 against that.

The reason you will not get any takers on this bet is not because no one believes that 5000 is likely.  They simply believe that it would be better to invest 1000 at today's market price and sell at 5000.  Same exact risk with much higher possible return.

[BitChick]

I don't think 5000 USD/BTC is likely to occur in 2014. I'd be willing to bet €1000 against that.

The reason you will not get any takers on this bet is not because no one believes that 5000 is likely.  They simply believe that it would be better to invest 1000 at today's market price and sell at 5000.  Same exact risk with much higher possible return.

Or some of by holding BTC are betting that it will get to $5000 anyways.  No need to take any other gamble.

[luigi1111]

we will see 5000 this year
next year ATH at least 10000, probably higher (20000 - 50000)

I don't see how $5000 is possible, but I am not a betting man.

I don't think 5000 USD/BTC is likely to occur in 2014. I'd be willing to bet €1000 against that.

I don't think that you would find many takers at any reasonable odds.

I'd be willing to do 50:1, just because, but "real" (based on some random finding of historical vol, which is all I have to work with) odds seem to be around 125:1.

[luigi1111]

I don't think 5000 USD/BTC is likely to occur in 2014. I'd be willing to bet €1000 against that.

The reason you will not get any takers on this bet is not because no one believes that 5000 is likely.  They simply believe that it would be better to invest 1000 at today's market price and sell at 5000.  Same exact risk with much higher possible return.

Of course you'll find takers, just not at 50/50; that would be completely stupid.

[dnaleor]

i'll do 2:1 for 0.1 BTC that BTC goes above 5000 USD (so I get 0.2 BTC if it happens)

edit: this is significantly better for the bears than this bet, it seems: http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/

edit2: offer valid for next 24h. if none takes it, i'll change to 3:1

[RoadStress]

So I was reading what Fred Wilson stated today

And I think that that’s probably going to be first big commercial opportunity in bitcoin, [...] to create secure systems.

What if Bitcoin will improve and boost the IT security in general and especially private people's security? What if better security overall will teach everyone how to secure their systems and in the same time it will help them to decentralize a bit from the governments? Bitcoin may give power to the people in a lot more ways than the financial system.

[Erdogan]

So I was reading what Fred Wilson stated today

And I think that that’s probably going to be first big commercial opportunity in bitcoin, [...] to create secure systems.

What if Bitcoin will improve and boost the IT security in general and especially private people's security? What if better security overall will teach everyone how to secure their systems and in the same time it will help them to decentralize a bit from the governments? Bitcoin may give power to the people in a lot more ways than the financial system.

At this point, there is no reason to read and discuss what all the professional newbies say and write int the newspapers. If someone wants to be informed, he will have to come to bitcointalk.

[Dotto]

So I was reading what Fred Wilson stated today

And I think that that’s probably going to be first big commercial opportunity in bitcoin, [...] to create secure systems.

What if Bitcoin will improve and boost the IT security in general and especially private people's security? What if better security overall will teach everyone how to secure their systems and in the same time it will help them to decentralize a bit from the governments? Bitcoin may give power to the people in a lot more ways than the financial system.

Liquid democracy via blockchain´s (something as 'votecoins') is only one of the alternative uses people are finding for the protocol. Sooner than later we will get all kind of different applications of the blockchain technology, beyond the use as currency.

http://bitcoinvox.com/article/737/bitcoin-can-take-democracy-to-the-next-level

[ArticMine]

So I was reading what Fred Wilson stated today

And I think that that’s probably going to be first big commercial opportunity in bitcoin, [...] to create secure systems.

What if Bitcoin will improve and boost the IT security in general and especially private people's security? What if better security overall will teach everyone how to secure their systems and in the same time it will help them to decentralize a bit from the governments? Bitcoin may give power to the people in a lot more ways than the financial system.

If it motivates enough people to switch from Microsoft Windows to GNU/Linux in order to avoid serious financial loss, then yes it will give power to the people and take it away not just from governments but also from large controlling multinational corporations that are for the most part far worse than most governments.

[BetMoose]

i'll do 2:1 for 0.1 BTC that BTC goes above 5000 USD (so I get 0.2 BTC if it happens)

We're in the middle of adding fixed-odds to BetMoose but I thought you may be interested in taking the 'Yes' side of:

___________

Bitcoin Will Pass $1000 By the End of this YearOptions: Yes | No

Still room in the bet on either side, before we can get to $5000 we have to clear $1000 right?

[AlexGR]

Price prediction based on a dream: 18.000$ in 2016. Posted for future reference

What model is this based on?
I would sell 10% at that point  

All you need to hit a right prediction is to make many of them at random. Then, once one hit, you point to it and say-aha!
This is the method that many economists are using or so it seems...

As I said, it is info from a dream. In the dream I was having a conversation with someone (the sense was that he was quite knowledgeable) and apparently I was asking him about future bitcoin price. The answer he gave me was $18.000 / 2016. Whether it is true or not, we'll have to wait and see. That would exceed 250bn usd in marketcap which I find hard, but then again, it's still a marketcap lower than some companies.

[luigi1111]

i'll do 2:1 for 0.1 BTC that BTC goes above 5000 USD (so I get 0.2 BTC if it happens)

edit: this is significantly better for the bears than this bet, it seems: http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/

edit2: offer valid for next 24h. if none takes it, i'll change to 3:1

Done. Would you mind going a little larger? If not, no big deal.

How do we do this?

[dnaleor]

i'll do 2:1 for 0.1 BTC that BTC goes above 5000 USD (so I get 0.2 BTC if it happens)

edit: this is significantly better for the bears than this bet, it seems: http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/

edit2: offer valid for next 24h. if none takes it, i'll change to 3:1

Done. Would you mind going a little larger? If not, no big deal.

How do we do this?

i'm not really a speculator, so I prefer small bets  
We should find a reliable escrow. Suggestions?

edit: you send 0.2 BTC to the escrow, I'll send 0.1 BTC
If I win, I get my 0.1 deposit back + 0.2 BTC from you
If you win, you get your 0.2 BCT deposit back + 0.1 BTC from me

[luigi1111]

i'll do 2:1 for 0.1 BTC that BTC goes above 5000 USD (so I get 0.2 BTC if it happens)

edit: this is significantly better for the bears than this bet, it seems: http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/

edit2: offer valid for next 24h. if none takes it, i'll change to 3:1

Done. Would you mind going a little larger? If not, no big deal.

How do we do this?

i'm not really a speculator, so I prefer small bets  
We should find a reliable escrow. Suggestions?

edit: you send 0.2 BTC to the escrow, I'll send 0.1 BTC
If I win, I get my 0.1 deposit back + 0.2 BTC from you
If you win, you get your 0.2 BCT deposit back + 0.1 BTC from me

Sure, no problem.

As far as escrow, I'm not sure how it works for 5 months, lol. If you're happy with a "gentlemen's bet", that's cool with me (I will deliver on my end; can find some references if you want). We could do something like http://www.futureme.org/ to remind us around Christmas time if you want.

[BetMoose]

i'll do 2:1 for 0.1 BTC that BTC goes above 5000 USD (so I get 0.2 BTC if it happens)

edit: this is significantly better for the bears than this bet, it seems: http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/

edit2: offer valid for next 24h. if none takes it, i'll change to 3:1

Done. Would you mind going a little larger? If not, no big deal.

How do we do this?

i'm not really a speculator, so I prefer small bets  
We should find a reliable escrow. Suggestions?

edit: you send 0.2 BTC to the escrow, I'll send 0.1 BTC
If I win, I get my 0.1 deposit back + 0.2 BTC from you
If you win, you get your 0.2 BCT deposit back + 0.1 BTC from me

dnaleor; check out https://www.betmoose.com - it's exactly set up for deals like this. We act as the 3rd party neutral escrow plus you can deposit anonymously (or make an account). PM me and we can create an unlisted bet if you're interested (so only those with the link will be able to see it). Plus we'll have all the funds at once, so no risk of someone failing to deliver afterwards at expiration.

[dnaleor]

i'll do 2:1 for 0.1 BTC that BTC goes above 5000 USD (so I get 0.2 BTC if it happens)

edit: this is significantly better for the bears than this bet, it seems: http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/

edit2: offer valid for next 24h. if none takes it, i'll change to 3:1

Done. Would you mind going a little larger? If not, no big deal.

How do we do this?

i'm not really a speculator, so I prefer small bets  
We should find a reliable escrow. Suggestions?

edit: you send 0.2 BTC to the escrow, I'll send 0.1 BTC
If I win, I get my 0.1 deposit back + 0.2 BTC from you
If you win, you get your 0.2 BCT deposit back + 0.1 BTC from me

Sure, no problem.

As far as escrow, I'm not sure how it works for 5 months, lol. If you're happy with a "gentlemen's bet", that's cool with me (I will deliver on my end; can find some references if you want). We could do something like http://www.futureme.org/ to remind us around Christmas time if you want.

Well... You don't really semm to have a trust rating. I generally trust people, but for betting I think an escrow is needed (unless we both have a high trust rating and are semi public figures)
I know an escrow who does it for free, it's the moderator from the dutch subforum, psychoticboy. He is very honest. If you want, we can take him. Although I would understand if you don't want him, because I already "know" him and you think he is "biased".

Maybe rpietila? After all, this is his topic

[luigi1111]

i'll do 2:1 for 0.1 BTC that BTC goes above 5000 USD (so I get 0.2 BTC if it happens)

edit: this is significantly better for the bears than this bet, it seems: http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/

edit2: offer valid for next 24h. if none takes it, i'll change to 3:1

Done. Would you mind going a little larger? If not, no big deal.

How do we do this?

i'm not really a speculator, so I prefer small bets  
We should find a reliable escrow. Suggestions?

edit: you send 0.2 BTC to the escrow, I'll send 0.1 BTC
If I win, I get my 0.1 deposit back + 0.2 BTC from you
If you win, you get your 0.2 BCT deposit back + 0.1 BTC from me

Sure, no problem.

As far as escrow, I'm not sure how it works for 5 months, lol. If you're happy with a "gentlemen's bet", that's cool with me (I will deliver on my end; can find some references if you want). We could do something like http://www.futureme.org/ to remind us around Christmas time if you want.

Well... You don't really semm to have a trust rating. I generally trust people, but for betting I think an escrow is needed (unless we both have a high trust rating and are semi public figures)
I know an escrow who does it for free, it's the moderator from the dutch subforum, psychoticboy. He is very honest. If you want, we can take him. Although I would understand if you don't want him, because I already "know" him and you think he is "biased".

Maybe rpietila? After all, this is his topic

Yeah, I don't have a trust rating because I don't trade on BCT. I'm fine with Risto, if he wants to. Might be too much bother though. Otherwise we can use your guy.

[jeffg]

Why don't you use a trustless escrow service like one of these:

• bitrated.com
• bitescrow.org
• coinb.in/multisig/

If you like I can act as an arbitrator (it's technically impossible that I run away with your money)

[dnaleor]

i'll do 2:1 for 0.1 BTC that BTC goes above 5000 USD (so I get 0.2 BTC if it happens)

edit: this is significantly better for the bears than this bet, it seems: http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/

edit2: offer valid for next 24h. if none takes it, i'll change to 3:1

Done. Would you mind going a little larger? If not, no big deal.

How do we do this?

i'm not really a speculator, so I prefer small bets  
We should find a reliable escrow. Suggestions?

edit: you send 0.2 BTC to the escrow, I'll send 0.1 BTC
If I win, I get my 0.1 deposit back + 0.2 BTC from you
If you win, you get your 0.2 BCT deposit back + 0.1 BTC from me

Sure, no problem.

As far as escrow, I'm not sure how it works for 5 months, lol. If you're happy with a "gentlemen's bet", that's cool with me (I will deliver on my end; can find some references if you want). We could do something like http://www.futureme.org/ to remind us around Christmas time if you want.

Well... You don't really semm to have a trust rating. I generally trust people, but for betting I think an escrow is needed (unless we both have a high trust rating and are semi public figures)
I know an escrow who does it for free, it's the moderator from the dutch subforum, psychoticboy. He is very honest. If you want, we can take him. Although I would understand if you don't want him, because I already "know" him and you think he is "biased".

Maybe rpietila? After all, this is his topic

Yeah, I don't have a trust rating because I don't trade on BCT. I'm fine with Risto, if he wants to. Might be too much bother though. Otherwise we can use your guy.

ok, we'll wait if he responds to our request. If not, i'll send psychoticboy a message with you as cc.
He does the escrow for free, but appreciate tips. I'll pay the tip