Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod]

[SaShiRaJaVu]

I am 100% certain that Broad would be able to reach the 600 mark, unless some serious injury destroys his career (he had extended injury breaks during his test career in the past). As of now, he has 514 wickets from 143 matches. I don't want him to end up like Dale Steyn. I have always considered Steyn to be the best fast bowler to play the sport of cricket since WW2. But his test career got derailed due to a variety of reasons, including injury and lack of support from the cricket board.

Anderson and Broad are playing only one format and they are getting enough rest so that they could play every Test match and avoid getting injured. England have a problem once they retire as they lack good fast bowlers in the longer version that could trouble the batsman.
Dale Steyn is an exceptional talent but to call him the best fast bowler post WW2 when you have Akram and Waqqar Younis and the West Indies bowlers in the 70s and 80s and the fast bowlers Australia had and Glenn McGrath are exceptional in that regard.

[MFahad]

For Broad it should be easy, no more test for England this year so may be he might get close to at least 550 ish next year even if his form goes down, which is unlikely.

I never heard Proteas not supporting Dale Steyn but yeah his test career took a hit due to his injuries. I remember his deadly spell back in 2010 against India in the subcontinent where he single handedly demolished the Indian defense without breaking a sweat.

2-3 decades ago, the best fast bowlers used to be South Africans. The list is quite long, and includes Alan Donald, Shaun Pollock, Fanie de Villiers, André Nel.etc. Dale Steyn was perhaps the last world class fast bowler produced by South Africa. The current bunch is quite ordinary and that is one of the reasons why South Africa is struggling against the Big 3 teams.

There are few teams which are unable to produce the same quality of bowlers as they had few decades ago. South Africa is one of them and the other country is Pakistan. They miss the reverse swing talent of Waseem, Waqar and shoaib akhtar.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Its not that they lack talent, they have fair amount of talented players but their politics and racial drama #ucking everything for them.. Just look at the recent drama in CSA management, they are sacking CEO every now then and dragging each other into court rooms.

It is not just the racial tensions. I would rate the CSA as one of the most incompetent and corrupt cricket governance bodies among the test nations. They would even give the Zimbabwe board a run for their money in this regard. I agree that the talent is still there. But a lot of the younger South African players think that grabbing a European passport and going Kolpak is the only viable option they got.

[MFahad]

Its not that they lack talent, they have fair amount of talented players but their politics and racial drama #ucking everything for them.. Just look at the recent drama in CSA management, they are sacking CEO every now then and dragging each other into court rooms.

It is not just the racial tensions. I would rate the CSA as one of the most incompetent and corrupt cricket governance bodies among the test nations. They would even give the Zimbabwe board a run for their money in this regard. I agree that the talent is still there. But a lot of the younger South African players think that grabbing a European passport and going Kolpak is the only viable option they got.

If they don't find a decent opportunity at home, then there is no option left for the players. They just cant stay in their country if they got the talent and outside world is willing to hire them for good rates.

[Vishnu.Reang]

If they don't find a decent opportunity at home, then there is no option left for the players. They just cant stay in their country if they got the talent and outside world is willing to hire them for good rates.

It is a combination of many factors. Domestic teams are allowed only five (out of the 11) on the basis of merit. The remaining six players come from racial quota. On top of this, the number of domestic first class teams stand at just 6 in South Africa (for comparison, this is 18 in England and 37 in India). So only 30 white players can represent the domestic sides. Salaries are also quite low. South African domestic teams usually pay around 1/4th or 1/5th of the salary that the English county teams pay.

[Juggy777]

Its not that they lack talent, they have fair amount of talented players but their politics and racial drama #ucking everything for them.. Just look at the recent drama in CSA management, they are sacking CEO every now then and dragging each other into court rooms.

It is not just the racial tensions. I would rate the CSA as one of the most incompetent and corrupt cricket governance bodies among the test nations. They would even give the Zimbabwe board a run for their money in this regard. I agree that the talent is still there. But a lot of the younger South African players think that grabbing a European passport and going Kolpak is the only viable option they got.

If they don't find a decent opportunity at home, then there is no option left for the players. They just cant stay in their country if they got the talent and outside world is willing to hire them for good rates.

It is a combination of many factors. Domestic teams are allowed only five (out of the 11) on the basis of merit. The remaining six players come from racial quota. On top of this, the number of domestic first class teams stand at just 6 in South Africa (for comparison, this is 18 in England and 37 in India). So only 30 white players can represent the domestic sides. Salaries are also quite low. South African domestic teams usually pay around 1/4th or 1/5th of the salary that the English county teams pay.

@JSRAW yea CSA is messed up and it’s due to their colour based polices, that they have never been able to succeed for long spells in any format. Also I don’t blame the player’s for choosing to play for other countries, because they’re very well aware that they’ll never be picked due to their colour, and which player would like to waste his career by sitting on the sidelines?.

[JSRAW]

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~edited out~
 But a lot of the younger South African players think that grabbing a European passport and going Kolpak is the only viable option they got.

Brexit might help in this case, some might still find loopholes tho..

It is a combination of many factors. Domestic teams are allowed only five (out of the 11) on the basis of merit. The remaining six players come from racial quota. On top of this, the number of domestic first class teams stand at just 6 in South Africa (for comparison, this is 18 in England and 37 in India). So only 30 white players can represent the domestic sides. Salaries are also quite low. South African domestic teams usually pay around 1/4th or 1/5th of the salary that the English county teams pay.

6 team in domestic cricket is way too low, similarly having 37 teams are over the top. looking at Indian domestic teams, if they managed to get their act together then they could even build at least 3 world class teams but not sure if its going to happen in our lifetime.

[Sithara007]

6 team in domestic cricket is way too low, similarly having 37 teams are over the top. looking at Indian domestic teams, if they managed to get their act together then they could even build at least 3 world class teams but not sure if its going to happen in our lifetime.

How many is ideal, in your opinion?

I have followed the Sheffield Shield competition in Australia for the past many years. I would say without a doubt that it is the best domestic first-class competition in the world right now. I would rate it above the county championship of England and Ranji Trophy of India. But in Sheffield Shield, they have only 6 teams.

Even in the West Indies, they have only six first-class teams. Until the 1990s, the Busta Cup was regarded as one of the best first class competitions in the world. Similarly, the Plunket Shield competition of New Zealand also features only 6 teams.

India was having around 27 teams, before a supreme court judgement forced the BCCI to add 10 more.

As you can see, out of the six countries with a proper first-class setup, 4 are having just 6 first class teams each. Exceptions are England and India. England still maintains the quality, because each of these county sides are running for more than 100 years. The same can't be said about India.

The other six test nations (including SL, Pakistan, Bangladesh.etc) don't have a proper FC setup.

[JSRAW]

6 team in domestic cricket is way too low, similarly having 37 teams are over the top. looking at Indian domestic teams, if they managed to get their act together then they could even build at least 3 world class teams but not sure if its going to happen in our lifetime.

How many is ideal, in your opinion?

It basically depends on popularity of game and population density so every country should chose their own path according to the ground realities. Fixed team rule might work for one country but could be useless for another country.

In context of India, 25-30 teams are more than enough.. considering 99% wickets are batsmen friendly (Ranji).

Having said that if they are willing to work on competitive tracks for Ranji then i don't mind existing number of teams or may be more teams (close to 50) in domestic level because of population/popularity. So would like to see more fast pitches for Ranji otherwise India might end up with the talent who finds success only when home season comes, not ideal situation IMO.

India is big and offers different sets of climate in different parts. Let's say focus on Seam and bouncy tracks in North India as this is much colder part in comparison of rest of the India. I understand it would be tough to replicate similar pitches as England/South Africa (Seam-pace) and Australia(Bouncy) in India, as pitch gets dry after 3 days here. For this they could work more on competitive wicket, make favorable condition for fast bowler for first 3 days and let the wicket break after 3 days naturally, after 3 days let the spinners enjoy a bit. Encourage State boards who are willing to improve their domestic track record because as of now everyone still playing at dusty wickets in the Ranji level. Situation is much better in International games (Test) tho.

[Vishnu.Reang]

@ JSRAW, my main issue with Indian domestic cricket is not the number of teams. Rather than that, I am worried that the teams are not at the same level. For example, the Uttar Pradesh cricket team represents 200 million plus people and then we have the Puducherry and Chandigarh teams which represent just 1 million each. Do you think that it is logical to have UP and Chandigarh in the same competition? Rather than having separate teams for Chandigarh, Mizoram.etc, why can't the BCCI form a combined team for all these smaller states? From what I have seen, Puducherry and Chandigarh hardly fields any natives in their playing XI. Most of the players come from other states, who chose to represent these states because they get the opportunity to play first class cricket.

[JSRAW]

@ JSRAW, my main issue with Indian domestic cricket is not the number of teams. Rather than that, I am worried that the teams are not at the same level. For example, the Uttar Pradesh cricket team represents 200 million plus people and then we have the Puducherry and Chandigarh teams which represent just 1 million each. Do you think that it is logical to have UP and Chandigarh in the same competition? Rather than having separate teams for Chandigarh, Mizoram.etc, why can't the BCCI form a combined team for all these smaller states? From what I have seen, Puducherry and Chandigarh hardly fields any natives in their playing XI. Most of the players come from other states, who chose to represent these states because they get the opportunity to play first class cricket.

Completely agree on representation, but this seems more like political problem IMO and its a big one if we are talking about UP. BCCI needs to step up and voluntary pass the resolution to form 4-5 more teams from UP. Gujrat has 3 teams (Gujrat, Baroda and Saurashtra). Similarly Maharashtra has also 3 teams (Maharashtra, Mumbai, Vidarbha), so its possible. Just to let you know politically i am in favor of dividing Uttar Pradesh into 4-6 smaller states.

[pakhitheboss]

@ JSRAW, my main issue with Indian domestic cricket is not the number of teams. Rather than that, I am worried that the teams are not at the same level. For example, the Uttar Pradesh cricket team represents 200 million plus people and then we have the Puducherry and Chandigarh teams which represent just 1 million each. Do you think that it is logical to have UP and Chandigarh in the same competition? Rather than having separate teams for Chandigarh, Mizoram.etc, why can't the BCCI form a combined team for all these smaller states? From what I have seen, Puducherry and Chandigarh hardly fields any natives in their playing XI. Most of the players come from other states, who chose to represent these states because they get the opportunity to play first class cricket.

Completely agree on representation, but this seems more like political problem IMO and its a big one if we are talking about UP. BCCI needs to step up and voluntary pass the resolution to form 4-5 more teams from UP. Gujrat has 3 teams (Gujrat, Baroda and Saurashtra). Similarly Maharashtra has also 3 teams (Maharashtra, Mumbai, Vidarbha), so its possible. Just to let you know politically i am in favor of dividing Uttar Pradesh into 4-6 smaller states.

If it happens then more talent from UP will get a chance. It is a good idea indeed UP can be divided into two or three states easily without any issues but politician will not allow it to happen so easily.

[Indymoney]

@ JSRAW, my main issue with Indian domestic cricket is not the number of teams. Rather than that, I am worried that the teams are not at the same level. For example, the Uttar Pradesh cricket team represents 200 million plus people and then we have the Puducherry and Chandigarh teams which represent just 1 million each. Do you think that it is logical to have UP and Chandigarh in the same competition? Rather than having separate teams for Chandigarh, Mizoram.etc, why can't the BCCI form a combined team for all these smaller states? From what I have seen, Puducherry and Chandigarh hardly fields any natives in their playing XI. Most of the players come from other states, who chose to represent these states because they get the opportunity to play first class cricket.

Completely agree on representation, but this seems more like political problem IMO and its a big one if we are talking about UP. BCCI needs to step up and voluntary pass the resolution to form 4-5 more teams from UP. Gujrat has 3 teams (Gujrat, Baroda and Saurashtra). Similarly Maharashtra has also 3 teams (Maharashtra, Mumbai, Vidarbha), so its possible. Just to let you know politically i am in favor of dividing Uttar Pradesh into 4-6 smaller states.

If it happens then more talent from UP will get a chance. It is a good idea indeed UP can be divided into two or three states easily without any issues but politician will not allow it to happen so easily.

In developing countries politics is really big enemy of talent and system because corrupt politicians never want to give any one his right so as you guys talking we have same problem in many countries they can bring some good talent but system is not helping country like India where they have some good number of sponsors many youths fail to came out just because of this they have not right way to join bigs if they divide this all as its need then surely they have some better teams and better players with more support from local peoples as well.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Completely agree on representation, but this seems more like political problem IMO and its a big one if we are talking about UP. BCCI needs to step up and voluntary pass the resolution to form 4-5 more teams from UP. Gujrat has 3 teams (Gujrat, Baroda and Saurashtra). Similarly Maharashtra has also 3 teams (Maharashtra, Mumbai, Vidarbha), so its possible. Just to let you know politically i am in favor of dividing Uttar Pradesh into 4-6 smaller states.

We already have 38 teams playing in the Ranji Trophy and I don't want even more teams. A lot of the players from UP now represents states such as Delhi and Chandigarh. I would rather reduce the number of teams from the present number of 38 to somewhere around 20. I would like to see a single team from the Northeast. Also, I don't want the smaller Union Territories such as Chandigarh and Puducherry fielding their own team in the Ranji Trophy.

[JSRAW]

Completely agree on representation, but this seems more like political problem IMO and its a big one if we are talking about UP. BCCI needs to step up and voluntary pass the resolution to form 4-5 more teams from UP. Gujrat has 3 teams (Gujrat, Baroda and Saurashtra). Similarly Maharashtra has also 3 teams (Maharashtra, Mumbai, Vidarbha), so its possible. Just to let you know politically i am in favor of dividing Uttar Pradesh into 4-6 smaller states.

We already have 38 teams playing in the Ranji Trophy and I don't want even more teams. A lot of the players from UP now represents states such as Delhi and Chandigarh. I would rather reduce the number of teams from the present number of 38 to somewhere around 20. I would like to see a single team from the Northeast. Also, I don't want the smaller Union Territories such as Chandigarh and Puducherry fielding their own team in the Ranji Trophy.

Okay it seems our view points are radically different on this issue. In existing system i don't mind less teams in Ranji but if we want to mine the raw talent then am in favor of more teams in domestic condition apply, already tried to touch the subject in my previous reply to Sithara007.

[bryant.coleman]

Okay it seems our view points are radically different on this issue. In existing system i don't mind less teams in Ranji but if we want to mine the raw talent then am in favor of more teams in domestic condition apply, already tried to touch the subject in my previous reply to Sithara007.

I am also in favor of the current setup. Ranji Trophy is divided into three tiers, so the quality is maintained. Out of the 38 teams, 18 are placed in the top tier and another 10 are placed in the middle tier. A total of 10 teams (such as Mizoram and Sikkim) make up the Plate Group, which is the third tier. You may not witness matches such as Mumbai vs Manipur or Karnataka vs Nagaland very often.

[JSRAW]

Okay it seems our view points are radically different on this issue. In existing system i don't mind less teams in Ranji but if we want to mine the raw talent then am in favor of more teams in domestic condition apply, already tried to touch the subject in my previous reply to Sithara007.

I am also in favor of the current setup. Ranji Trophy is divided into three tiers, so the quality is maintained. Out of the 38 teams, 18 are placed in the top tier and another 10 are placed in the middle tier. A total of 10 teams (such as Mizoram and Sikkim) make up the Plate Group, which is the third tier. You may not witness matches such as Mumbai vs Manipur or Karnataka vs Nagaland very often.

Your suggestion is different from my and vishnu but Tier/group system in Ranji sounds good to me as i already support this idea in international cricket(Test), with this they don't need to remove any team and group system ensures competitive cricket among the strong teams.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Your suggestion is different from my and vishnu but Tier/group system in Ranji sounds good to me as i already support this idea in international cricket(Test), with this they don't need to remove any team and group system ensures competitive cricket among the strong teams.

In test cricket, the divisions are not well defined. The first division comprises of 9 teams, and the second division comprises of just 3 (Zimbabwe, Ireland and Afghanistan). I would have opted for even number of teams in both the divisions. So there should be 6 teams in the first division and 6 in the second division. This could have prevented the occurrence of lopsided matches.

[Juggy777]

Okay it seems our view points are radically different on this issue. In existing system i don't mind less teams in Ranji but if we want to mine the raw talent then am in favor of more teams in domestic condition apply, already tried to touch the subject in my previous reply to Sithara007.

I am also in favor of the current setup. Ranji Trophy is divided into three tiers, so the quality is maintained. Out of the 38 teams, 18 are placed in the top tier and another 10 are placed in the middle tier. A total of 10 teams (such as Mizoram and Sikkim) make up the Plate Group, which is the third tier. You may not witness matches such as Mumbai vs Manipur or Karnataka vs Nagaland very often.

Your suggestion is different from my and vishnu but Tier/group system in Ranji sounds good to me as i already support this idea in international cricket(Test), with this they don't need to remove any team and group system ensures competitive cricket among the strong teams.

@JSRAW I had to study the Ranji three tier system to get a better understanding of what you’ll want, and after reading about it I have to agree that it can definitely be implemented by the ICC. However I don’t expect this to be implemented anytime soon, because currently ICC isn’t concerned about Test cricket. Lastly as fans of this game we can only hope, that at some stage ICC will seriously work on reviving Test cricket.

From the 2018-19 season, the teams contested in three-tiers. Five teams will qualify for the quarter-finals from the top tier (known as Elite Group A and Group B). Two teams will qualify from the second-tier (Elite Group C) and One team from the lower-tier (Plate Group) for the quarter-finals.

Sources:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ranji_Trophy

https://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/en/NewsDetail/index/11/16740/Fans-and-Players-Overwhelmingly-Favour-Test-Cricket---But-is-the-ICC-Interested

https://www.indiatoday.in/sports/cricket/story/test-cricket-dying-icc-chairman-shashank-manohar-t20is-revnue-cricket-olympics-1450946-2019-02-07

https://m.dailyhunt.in/news/india/english/cricket+addictor+english-epaper-cricaden/kevin+pietersen+opens+up+on+how+to+revive+test+cricket-newsid-n169678654

[bryant.coleman]

@JSRAW I had to study the Ranji three tier system to get a better understanding of what you’ll want, and after reading about it I have to agree that it can definitely be implemented by the ICC. However I don’t expect this to be implemented anytime soon, because currently ICC isn’t concerned about Test cricket. Lastly as fans of this game we can only hope, that at some stage ICC will seriously work on reviving Test cricket.

With every passing year, the number of fans who prefer the longer format goes down. T10/T20/ODI are far more popular nowadays and only a few die-hard traditionalists favor the test matches. Another factor that is having an impact on the popularity is the increasing gap between the big 3 teams and the rest. In the shorter format, the weaker teams still have a chance. But in the longer format, the matches are increasingly becoming one-sided.