Coronavirus Outbreak

[TwitchySeal]

To the best of my knowledge nobody has really explained what, exactly, it is about this coronavirus which give it some of it's somewhat unique (claimed) properties.

That's because nobody knows which is what makes it such a threat.
We know what

Another hypothesis which is, if anything, gaining strength in my mind is that SARS-cov-2 is nothing more than any other seasonal and unremarkable coronavirus which makes the rounds as do all the rest

Except we know what to expect with seasonal unremarkable corona viruses - so we plan for them every year.
We know how to best prevent it, treat it, when it will peak, when the season will be over, how many hospital beds we'll need, all with pretty high confidence.


Covid-19 cases are spreading in both hemispheres. At the same time.
People are spending weeks on ventilators instead of days like the flu.
We don't have a vaccine, we are still guessing on the best way to treat it, we don't know who's immune or why, we don't know if it will peak in 2 weeks or 2 months. 
We do know that if it keeps spreading exponentially, it won't be long before we run out of hospital beds, staff and equipment.
In other words - no, it's not a seasonal unremarkable virus.  It's a pandemic. 

[BADecker]

^^^ Cute little charts. Easy to make. When is somebody going to take CV fanatics to court for real proof?

[tvbcof]

^^^ Cute little charts. Easy to make. When is somebody going to take CV fanatics to court for real proof?

Cute little charts that reflect bogus data from basket-case countries like Italy who need to beg the international banks for handouts in order to survive and will thus do anything required of them.

What's really funny is that even if you take those heavily massaged and fake numbers and overlay what one would expect from all other diseases you the charts would not show anything more than a minor blip anyway.

[suchmoon]

tvbcof, is this you buddy?

https://abcnews.go.com/US/engineer-allegedly-crash-train-usns-mercy-los-angeles/story?id=69926172

Around 1 p.m. Tuesday, Moreno allegedly ran the train at full speed off the end of the tracks near the Navy medical boat, smashing through several concrete and chain barriers, before sliding through a parking lot nearly 250 yards from the Mercy, according to the criminal complaint.
[...]
Moreno allegedly told officers and FBI investigators that he deliberately derailed the train because he was suspicious of the Mercy's intentions and thought it was actually part of a government takeover, the complaint said.

And it's not full moon yet...

[TwitchySeal]

^^^ Cute little charts. Easy to make. When is somebody going to take CV fanatics to court for real proof?

Cute little charts that reflect bogus data from basket-case countries like Italy who need to beg the international banks for handouts in order to survive and will thus do anything required of them.

What's really funny is that even if you take those heavily massaged and fake numbers and overlay what one would expect from all other diseases you the charts would not show anything more than a minor blip anyway.

You think Italy is faking it and shut down their entire country so they could get hand outs from banks?

What resource do you recommend for the most accurate data?

[BADecker]

^^^ Cute little charts. Easy to make. When is somebody going to take CV fanatics to court for real proof?

Cute little charts that reflect bogus data from basket-case countries like Italy who need to beg the international banks for handouts in order to survive and will thus do anything required of them.

What's really funny is that even if you take those heavily massaged and fake numbers and overlay what one would expect from all other diseases you the charts would not show anything more than a minor blip anyway.

You think Italy is faking it and shut down their entire country so they could get hand outs from banks?

What resource do you recommend for the most accurate data?

Do you have any evidence that Italy is doing anything? What if it is one joker in the Italian Government who has the "mouth" control, and all the rest of the government is against what he is saying. He mouths it to the media and that is what we hear.

Until there is an honest, unbiased court in session, the best info for Italy and any country is probably little people on the ground, with their phone cameras.

[psycodad]

^^^ Cute little charts. Easy to make. When is somebody going to take CV fanatics to court for real proof?

You mean the same court where you are going to prove that god made all DNA?
I am sure this will be literally a hell of an event.

God made all DNA of all life similar at its base. This so that people could "have dominion over the fish of the sea, over the birds of the air, and over every living thing that moves on the earth" - Genesis 1:28.

Btw: Does she actually talk to you, or is it only you talking to her?

[tvbcof]

^^^ Cute little charts. Easy to make. When is somebody going to take CV fanatics to court for real proof?

Cute little charts that reflect bogus data from basket-case countries like Italy who need to beg the international banks for handouts in order to survive and will thus do anything required of them.

What's really funny is that even if you take those heavily massaged and fake numbers and overlay what one would expect from all other diseases you the charts would not show anything more than a minor blip anyway.

What resource do you recommend for the most accurate data?

There simply are no good sources at this point.  So, you just have to do your best to analyze things and leave various hypotheses open.

It is a very severe sickness that most humans suffer from that one needs to have an answer right now.  The reason why it is so dangerous is because scammers of all stripes (and especially leaders and wanna-be leaders) will leverage this weakness for their own ends.

In engineering one must not use a precision which is unwarranted.  The uncertainty in the figures associated with so-called 'covid-19' are so large that no meaningful numbers are available at all.  In a lot of cases, however, the outside limits of various error bars are such to indicate that there really is no problem of any consequence.

If 'science' were serious about understanding this problem there would be a serious effort to understand the background infection rate using random samples.  You simply have to have some guess at a denominator in order to even start making rational decisions.  I've not found any indication that anyone anywhere has made even an attempt at getting this very basic piece of data.  In fact it seems that there are strong resistance on the part of the 'authorities' to make sure that people do NOT obtain this number in the United States.  To the point of employing cease-and-desist notices from our CDC.

[TwitchySeal]

If 'science' were serious about understanding this problem there would be a serious effort to understand the background infection rate using random samples.  You simply have to have some guess at a denominator in order to even start making rational decisions.  I've not found any indication that anyone anywhere has made even an attempt at getting this very basic piece of data.  In fact it seems that there are strong resistance on the part of the 'authorities' to make sure that people do NOT obtain this number in the United States.  To the point of employing cease-and-desist notices from our CDC.

So, are you saying the US government is stopping the scientists from learning more about the virus?  What about all the scientists in all the other scientists around the world?  That would be one very big conspiracy.

Or do you think they are just bad scientists that could learn a thing or two from you when it comes to analyzing viruses?

[tvbcof]

If 'science' were serious about understanding this problem there would be a serious effort to understand the background infection rate using random samples.  You simply have to have some guess at a denominator in order to even start making rational decisions.  I've not found any indication that anyone anywhere has made even an attempt at getting this very basic piece of data.  In fact it seems that there are strong resistance on the part of the 'authorities' to make sure that people do NOT obtain this number in the United States.  To the point of employing cease-and-desist notices from our CDC.

So, are you saying the US government is stopping the scientists from learning more about the virus?  What about all the scientists in all the other scientists around the world?  That would be one very big conspiracy.

Or do you think they are just bad scientists that could learn a thing or two from you when it comes to analyzing viruses?

I'm saying that I would like to see some numbers (in a peer reviewed (or not) paper with reproducible results) which showed the background infection rate for various populations around the world.  It's not that difficult.  Mostly just obtaining a random sample, and techniques for doing so to a reasonably statistically valid criteria are well known.

If you have pointers to such research, let me know.

I suppose that the argument for being delinquent in this very very basic first-step data gathering exercise will be 'we need all the test kits for sick people and cannot afford to spare any for fundamental research.'  Never mind that they actually don't need a positive for coronavirus in order to treat people who are dying from a lung infection.

I will put it to you straight that this number is not obtainable for one reason and one reason only:  It will complicate a scam and a hoax which is ongoing.  That's what it looks like to me here in the 4th month of 2020.

[TwitchySeal]

I'm saying that I would like to see some numbers (in a peer reviewed (or not) paper with reproducible results) which showed the background infection rate for various populations around the world.  It's not that difficult.  Mostly just obtaining a random sample, and techniques for doing so to a reasonably statistically valid criteria are well known.

If you have pointers to such research, let me know.

Sure, I'll send you a link in 2 or 3 years after the research is finished, reviewed and published.

Wait...was that a trick question?  You would just say the scientists did their research wrong and try to make it seem like you are the expert, not them....wouldn't you?

[franky1]

both badecker and tvbcof dont realise this is stil the delay/stall stage.. (calm before the storm)
they are deluded and think its all over and everyone is immune or dead in the next week

they dont realise 99.9% of people have yet to even get it.. including themselves
what they really should do. just for their own health concerns of th future
is
google population of their own town/city
google ICU beds of their city. and then crunch the numbers to realise that when people do come out of self isolation they personally wont want to be one of the ones told that there are not enough beds if they become of the severe symptom recipients

they would be the first crying out that people should self isolate to delay the spread. to prep hospitals.
because if it spread all in one go a couple months ago.. they would be first to scream the government didnt spend enough taxes on healthcare and didnt plan ahead

[tvbcof]

I'm saying that I would like to see some numbers (in a peer reviewed (or not) paper with reproducible results) which showed the background infection rate for various populations around the world.  It's not that difficult.  Mostly just obtaining a random sample, and techniques for doing so to a reasonably statistically valid criteria are well known.

If you have pointers to such research, let me know.

Sure, I'll send you a link in 2 or 3 years after the research is finished, reviewed and published.

Wait...was that a trick question?  You would just say the scientists did their research wrong and try to make it seem like you are the expert, not them....wouldn't you?

Propose a sampling protocol, run some tests, publish the results.  Should take all of two days.  This isn't rocket science.

And again, it's critical to discover if there is even a problem much less how big a problem there is.  That this very simple and critical data remains AWOL speaks volumes about the nature of this 'pandemic.'

Arguments about sample selection and the like can be performed at any time.  They won't amount to more than a few percent difference anyway unless the sample selection is grossly negligent.

[franky1]

different countries. different hospitals of different towns are doing tests daily

by the whole fact that data is coming from such a wide variety of places shows already the current controlled and limited stock of infections(during self isolation) has some notable numbers that show some scales which are standing the test of time..
this is a good sandbox of results of what to expect when things scale up once hospitals say they have excess ability to cope with more ans elf isolation is relaxed

so use the numbers.. not all numbers are coming from one hospital in china. but thousands of hospitals around the world
use the data..
then just scale it up as if everyone wasnt isolating thus everyone was spreading and get a multiple of that number to realise how bad it can be if self isolation didnt happen

and to work out what to expect once self isolation is relaxed and people mingle again.

[TwitchySeal]

I'm saying that I would like to see some numbers (in a peer reviewed (or not) paper with reproducible results) which showed the background infection rate for various populations around the world.  It's not that difficult.  Mostly just obtaining a random sample, and techniques for doing so to a reasonably statistically valid criteria are well known.

If you have pointers to such research, let me know.

Sure, I'll send you a link in 2 or 3 years after the research is finished, reviewed and published.

Wait...was that a trick question?  You would just say the scientists did their research wrong and try to make it seem like you are the expert, not them....wouldn't you?

Propose a sampling protocol, run some tests, publish the results.  Should take all of two days.  This isn't rocket science.

And again, it's critical to discover if there is even a problem much less how big a problem there is.  That this very simple and critical data remains AWOL speaks volumes about the nature of this 'pandemic.'

Arguments about sample selection and the like can be performed at any time.  They won't amount to more than a few percent difference anyway unless the sample selection is grossly negligent.

- Scientists all over the world are in on or aware of 'the hoax' and are intentionally misleading the world.
- There's a very simple yet critical step that scientists around the world have overlooked.  tvbcof caught it, but none of the scientists working on it did.
- tvbcof is wrong, not the scientists.

Am I missing any scenarios?

[tvbcof]

- Scientists all over the world are in on or aware of 'the hoax' and are intentionally misleading the world.
- There's a very simple yet critical step that scientists around the world have overlooked.  tvbcof caught it, but none of the scientists working on it did.
- tvbcof is wrong, not the scientists.

Am I missing any scenarios?

Mortality is a pretty simple equation:  dead/infected=mortality.  At least if they actually died predominantly from (not 'with') the virus.

'Infected' is completely mysterious because nobody will burn a few test kits and will only test the sickest of the sick (and celebrities)?!?  That doesn't pass the smell test.  I'm hardly the only person who is pointing this out.  Many of the highly esteemed doctors and scientists who are increasingly vocally calling bull on this plandemic are as well.

[franky1]

tvbcof still thinks its a china misleading the world where one hopital got picked to release info and all the info is fake

..
reality and to all over 7billion people is multiple countries with thousands of hospitals are reporting,,
and the numbers individually tally against the combined numbers

which makes the % indicator of mild vs critical vs death be quite a good indicator
.. but even 3 months later tvbcof will still think its some conspiracy to sneak 5G wireless into the world

[franky1]

'Infected' is completely mysterious because nobody will burn a few test kits and will only test the sickest of the sick (and celebrities)?!?  That doesn't pass the smell test.  I'm hardly the only person who is pointing this out.  Many of the highly esteemed doctors and scientists who are increasingly vocally calling bull on this plandemic are as well.

99% of people are self isolating
you can stick a swab up every orifice every hour for as long as they self isolate.. and they will show they wont have it.
so wasting swabs in this delay stage is stupid.

what is most likely to happen is continue to test those that are symptomatic. to make sure they are showing cough/fever symptoms due to corona and not something else..(asthma/panic attack.heart issues/other infections)

.. emphasis. people sick due to a car accident are not getting swabbed for corona. as you say they are not showing flu symptoms

later when self isolation relaxes and a few months have passed. then they can expand it to general public because the data/possible data will be relevant.
doing it now is like asking a 5yo to take a alcohol breathaliser test to see if they are a drunk driver (way before they had a chance to touch a drink/car steering wheel)

but right now hospitals are training up, and stocking up and expanding.. .. not to cure corona now. but to actually be able to cope with corona in future months.

using your own exaggerated methods..
you seem to be wanting to ask all girls under 10yo to take a pregnancy test, knowing they have not even had a chance to have sex yet. but just so you can prove some theory you have that pregnancy is a scam and doesnt happen

[TwitchySeal]

Many of the highly esteemed doctors and scientists who are increasingly vocally calling bull on this plandemic are as well.

What are their names?

[tvbcof]

Many of the highly esteemed doctors and scientists who are increasingly vocally calling bull on this plandemic are as well.

What are their names?

Again:  https://youtu.be/E_gMT4_PDJI?t=3452