Bitcoin Forum
December 06, 2016, 10:09:25 PM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Poll
Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

Pages: « 1 ... 1089 1090 1091 1092 1093 1094 1095 1096 1097 1098 1099 1100 1101 1102 1103 1104 1105 1106 1107 1108 1109 1110 1111 1112 1113 1114 1115 1116 1117 1118 1119 1120 1121 1122 1123 1124 1125 1126 1127 1128 1129 1130 1131 1132 1133 1134 1135 1136 1137 1138 [1139] 1140 1141 1142 1143 1144 1145 1146 1147 1148 1149 1150 1151 1152 1153 1154 1155 1156 1157 1158 1159 1160 1161 1162 1163 1164 1165 1166 1167 1168 1169 1170 1171 1172 1173 1174 1175 1176 1177 1178 1179 1180 1181 1182 1183 1184 1185 1186 1187 1188 1189 ... 1560 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805264 times)
79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 178

◕_◕


View Profile
April 14, 2015, 04:59:22 PM
 #22761

However an IBM-designed govcoin is implemented, its differences with bitcoin will be marked. The contrast will make bitcoin easier for the public to understand, and users will be able to assess advantages and disadvantages of each option. Bitcoin will then (continue to) compete on its own merits. We could ask for no better.
1481062165
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481062165

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481062165
Reply with quote  #2

1481062165
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
April 14, 2015, 05:06:04 PM
 #22762


Why should a govcoin bother with mining which is a waste of electricity if you're not using the distributed security mechanism. They will simply design it so only the FED or some other agency can create and sign blocks. Since there is a single centralized block generator they could also issue blocks faster (say every 5 seconds) without the risk of orphans, then claim how much better their implementation is because it has faster block confirmation times (plus is wrapped in the protective love of our betters).

My thoughts exactly, why not just use POS protocol?

exactly. IBM doesn't want to get into the biz of hashing with all the attendant ordering of multiple parts and accessories.  it's too risky.  they'll just do POS.
hdbuck
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1134



View Profile
April 14, 2015, 05:14:19 PM
 #22763

However an IBM-designed govcoin is implemented, its differences with bitcoin will be marked. The contrast will make bitcoin easier for the public to understand, and users will be able assess advantages and disadvantages of each option. Bitcoin will then (continue to) compete on its own merits. We could ask for no better.

+1 and then people will realize there is only one option: Bitcoin. Cool
79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 178

◕_◕


View Profile
April 14, 2015, 05:19:10 PM
 #22764

Maybe yes, maybe no. I'll be content if 1% of the global economy is denominated in BTC before 2025.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
April 14, 2015, 05:51:16 PM
 #22765

Maybe yes, maybe no. I'll be content if 1% of the global economy is denominated in BTC before 2025.

this is the right attitude, altho highly conservative.

the beautiful thing is that Bitcoin has been powerful enough to get an IBM and the world's most powerful CB up in a tizzy.  not to mention headed off in the wrong direction.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
April 14, 2015, 06:09:36 PM
 #22766

keep focusing on the positives:

cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
April 14, 2015, 06:25:09 PM
 #22767

rocks
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1153


View Profile
April 14, 2015, 06:40:45 PM
 #22768



80% YoY growth in usage isn't too shabby, especially considering the starting point last year was coming off of a bubble.
79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 178

◕_◕


View Profile
April 14, 2015, 07:14:08 PM
 #22769

Maybe yes, maybe no. I'll be content if 1% of the global economy is denominated in BTC before 2025.
this is the right attitude, altho highly conservative.

The world's current total wealth is ~ USD$263 trillion [1]. If one tenth of one percent of it were presently stored in the blockchain, BTC market cap would be USD$263 billion. Dividing that by 14 million BTC gives ~ USD$18,785/BTC.

Assuming only 1% compounded yearly growth, world's wealth in 2025 would be USD $290 trillion.  One percent of that is USD $2.9 trillion. Divided by 20 million BTC mined by 2025 gives ~ USD$1.45 million/BTC (supposing they were all for sale).

Conservative?

Quote
the beautiful thing is that Bitcoin has been powerful enough to get an IBM and the world's most powerful CB up in a tizzy.  not to mention headed off in the wrong direction.
Don't forget the commercial banks. They are feeling the heat too [2].


[1] https://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/?fileID=60931FDE-A2D2-F568-B041B58C5EA591A4
[2] http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ONE/15660259x0x820077/8af78e45-1d81-4363-931c-439d04312ebc/JPMC-AR2014-LetterToShareholders.pdf , p.29
sidhujag
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1288


View Profile
April 14, 2015, 08:28:02 PM
 #22770

$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt.  that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place.  look the hell out:



Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.
rocks
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1153


View Profile
April 14, 2015, 09:09:21 PM
 #22771

$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt.  that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place.  look the hell out:

Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.

None of that matters, not the fundamentals, not the chart, not anything.

The only thing that matters is if the FED starts to raise rates as promised this summer/fall. If yes then the chart goes down, if no then the chart goes up. Its that simple.

The truly scary aspect of this is most people who believe in free markets think this command and control economy is OK.
sidhujag
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1288


View Profile
April 14, 2015, 09:19:32 PM
 #22772

$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt.  that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place.  look the hell out:

Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.

None of that matters, not the fundamentals, not the chart, not anything.

The only thing that matters is if the FED starts to raise rates as promised this summer/fall. If yes then the chart goes down, if no then the chart goes up. Its that simple.

The truly scary aspect of this is most people who believe in free markets think this command and control economy is OK.

Noone thinks this economy is ok noone with 2 brain cells atleast.. it is what it is... it goes until it breaks. 0 or 1 binary. Raising rates will probably lead to a bullish run like no other btw quite opposite of what most ppl think.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
April 14, 2015, 09:44:02 PM
 #22773

$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt.  that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place.  look the hell out:

Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.

None of that matters, not the fundamentals, not the chart, not anything.

The only thing that matters is if the FED starts to raise rates as promised this summer/fall. If yes then the chart goes down, if no then the chart goes up. Its that simple.

The truly scary aspect of this is most people who believe in free markets think this command and control economy is OK.

Noone thinks this economy is ok noone with 2 brain cells atleast.. it is what it is... it goes until it breaks. 0 or 1 binary. Raising rates will probably lead to a bullish run like no other btw quite opposite of what most ppl think.

unfortunately, you may be right. 

the only thing that might be able to crack their money printing scheme that is designed specifically to drive up the stock mkt is a real, good 'ol fashion domino debt default crisis like we had in 2008.  and in this case and time, that unfortunately would mean a true domino sovereign debt default starting with some place like Greece.  except that the ECB keeps doing whatever it takes to stop this from happening.  the key thing for you is that you believe that they can keep postponing reality.  and ppl like you have been right for longer than anyone can imagine having happened.  the problem i see is that your final blow off parabolic top seems to depend on the avg Joe piling on at the top.  i don't think they have the capability of doing so anymore therefore it will take continued CB pumping to keep everything afloat.  is there a breaking pt?  i think there is.  but it is difficult, if not impossible, to tell exactly when.  this Dow Theory non-conf is as good an indicator as any that there is unforeseen trouble ahead dead ahead.  but as i said in one post, the banks and CB's watch the charts like hawks as well and pump to prevent even a hint of trouble from emerging these days.  quite a clusterf*ck if you ask me.

i for one won't be investing in the stock mkt at this point in time.  only until a full on wash out crash has cleared out the speculation.
Torque
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 910



View Profile
April 14, 2015, 09:49:44 PM
 #22774

i for one won't be investing in the stock mkt at this point in time.  only until a full on wash out crash has cleared out the speculation.

Only one problem though, Bitcoin (and all crypto) is still being treated like a stock.  So a stock market crash would instantly loot bitcoin as well (and it would not be pretty).

PM's and cash would be the only safe haven.

And in some weird way, I see an economic rise continuing for at least the next 2-3 years.  Not sure what will happen after that though, as it will likely be a lot of smoke.
sidhujag
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1288


View Profile
April 14, 2015, 10:02:11 PM
 #22775

$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt.  that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place.  look the hell out:

Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.

None of that matters, not the fundamentals, not the chart, not anything.

The only thing that matters is if the FED starts to raise rates as promised this summer/fall. If yes then the chart goes down, if no then the chart goes up. Its that simple.

The truly scary aspect of this is most people who believe in free markets think this command and control economy is OK.

Noone thinks this economy is ok noone with 2 brain cells atleast.. it is what it is... it goes until it breaks. 0 or 1 binary. Raising rates will probably lead to a bullish run like no other btw quite opposite of what most ppl think.

unfortunately, you may be right.  

the only thing that might be able to crack their money printing scheme that is designed specifically to drive up the stock mkt is a real, good 'ol fashion domino debt default crisis like we had in 2008.  and in this case and time, that unfortunately would mean a true domino sovereign debt default starting with some place like Greece.  except that the ECB keeps doing whatever it takes to stop this from happening.  the key thing for you is that you believe that they can keep postponing reality.  and ppl like you have been right for longer than anyone can imagine having happened.  the problem i see is that your final blow off parabolic top seems to depend on the avg Joe piling on at the top.  i don't think they have the capability of doing so anymore therefore it will take continued CB pumping to keep everything afloat.  is there a breaking pt?  i think there is.  but it is difficult, if not impossible, to tell exactly when.  this Dow Theory non-conf is as good an indicator as any that there is unforeseen trouble ahead dead ahead.  but as i said in one post, the banks and CB's watch the charts like hawks as well and pump to prevent even a hint of trouble from emerging these days.  quite a clusterf*ck if you ask me.

i for one won't be investing in the stock mkt at this point in time.  only until a full on wash out crash has cleared out the speculation.

Im not basing it on postponing reality.. i see it in the charts... dont you think the smart money already knows when the endgame is near? They have to sell to someone.. and avg joe is the best bet as there is a ton of money on the sideline waiting for suckers to get in like musical chairs.

We see it in crypto land every day... except that its 1000000x faster. Each pump and cycle is doing the same thing.. accumulate and distribute to suckers. Some pumps end up happening on other pumps because of speculation and you have sustained rises.. however most alt's dont have a reason for a pump within a pump so they go back down to 0.
rocks
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1153


View Profile
April 14, 2015, 11:07:07 PM
 #22776

$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt.  that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place.  look the hell out:

Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.

None of that matters, not the fundamentals, not the chart, not anything.

The only thing that matters is if the FED starts to raise rates as promised this summer/fall. If yes then the chart goes down, if no then the chart goes up. Its that simple.

The truly scary aspect of this is most people who believe in free markets think this command and control economy is OK.

Noone thinks this economy is ok noone with 2 brain cells atleast.. it is what it is... it goes until it breaks. 0 or 1 binary. Raising rates will probably lead to a bullish run like no other btw quite opposite of what most ppl think.

unfortunately, you may be right.  

the only thing that might be able to crack their money printing scheme that is designed specifically to drive up the stock mkt is a real, good 'ol fashion domino debt default crisis like we had in 2008.  and in this case and time, that unfortunately would mean a true domino sovereign debt default starting with some place like Greece.  except that the ECB keeps doing whatever it takes to stop this from happening.  the key thing for you is that you believe that they can keep postponing reality.  and ppl like you have been right for longer than anyone can imagine having happened.  the problem i see is that your final blow off parabolic top seems to depend on the avg Joe piling on at the top.  i don't think they have the capability of doing so anymore therefore it will take continued CB pumping to keep everything afloat.  is there a breaking pt?  i think there is.  but it is difficult, if not impossible, to tell exactly when.  this Dow Theory non-conf is as good an indicator as any that there is unforeseen trouble ahead dead ahead.  but as i said in one post, the banks and CB's watch the charts like hawks as well and pump to prevent even a hint of trouble from emerging these days.  quite a clusterf*ck if you ask me.

i for one won't be investing in the stock mkt at this point in time.  only until a full on wash out crash has cleared out the speculation.

Im not basing it on postponing reality.. i see it in the charts... dont you think the smart money already knows when the endgame is near? They have to sell to someone.. and avg joe is the best bet as there is a ton of money on the sideline waiting for suckers to get in like musical chairs.

We see it in crypto land every day... except that its 1000000x faster. Each pump and cycle is doing the same thing.. accumulate and distribute to suckers. Some pumps end up happening on other pumps because of speculation and you have sustained rises.. however most alt's dont have a reason for a pump within a pump so they go back down to 0.

I still don't think you can see anything in the charts anymore (or in the fundamentals) because what the FED decides to do in regards to rates and Ctrl+P has a much bigger impact.

The 2008 crash happened simply because 1) they raised rates the year before, which stopped M2 and M3 money growth and 2) they let Bear go down which telegraphed the FED would not always function as a bailout entity for the credit market in all cases (which it had since LTCM blew up a decade earlier).

We can see the same situation emerging today. 1) The FED is talking about raising rates (I'm still 50/50 on if they have the courage) and 2) letting Greece go down seems more and more likely, which will have the same effect as BearStearns.  Bear caused the credit market to realize it was possible to lose money with bank credit, which caused a bank run and crashed the system. Greece will make the credit market realize it is possible to lose money with sovereign credit, which will cause a sovereign run. If you thought a bank credit run was ugly, wait till you see a sovereign credit run.

sidhujag
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1288


View Profile
April 14, 2015, 11:12:27 PM
 #22777

$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt.  that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place.  look the hell out:

Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.

None of that matters, not the fundamentals, not the chart, not anything.

The only thing that matters is if the FED starts to raise rates as promised this summer/fall. If yes then the chart goes down, if no then the chart goes up. Its that simple.

The truly scary aspect of this is most people who believe in free markets think this command and control economy is OK.

Noone thinks this economy is ok noone with 2 brain cells atleast.. it is what it is... it goes until it breaks. 0 or 1 binary. Raising rates will probably lead to a bullish run like no other btw quite opposite of what most ppl think.

unfortunately, you may be right.  

the only thing that might be able to crack their money printing scheme that is designed specifically to drive up the stock mkt is a real, good 'ol fashion domino debt default crisis like we had in 2008.  and in this case and time, that unfortunately would mean a true domino sovereign debt default starting with some place like Greece.  except that the ECB keeps doing whatever it takes to stop this from happening.  the key thing for you is that you believe that they can keep postponing reality.  and ppl like you have been right for longer than anyone can imagine having happened.  the problem i see is that your final blow off parabolic top seems to depend on the avg Joe piling on at the top.  i don't think they have the capability of doing so anymore therefore it will take continued CB pumping to keep everything afloat.  is there a breaking pt?  i think there is.  but it is difficult, if not impossible, to tell exactly when.  this Dow Theory non-conf is as good an indicator as any that there is unforeseen trouble ahead dead ahead.  but as i said in one post, the banks and CB's watch the charts like hawks as well and pump to prevent even a hint of trouble from emerging these days.  quite a clusterf*ck if you ask me.

i for one won't be investing in the stock mkt at this point in time.  only until a full on wash out crash has cleared out the speculation.

Im not basing it on postponing reality.. i see it in the charts... dont you think the smart money already knows when the endgame is near? They have to sell to someone.. and avg joe is the best bet as there is a ton of money on the sideline waiting for suckers to get in like musical chairs.

We see it in crypto land every day... except that its 1000000x faster. Each pump and cycle is doing the same thing.. accumulate and distribute to suckers. Some pumps end up happening on other pumps because of speculation and you have sustained rises.. however most alt's dont have a reason for a pump within a pump so they go back down to 0.

I still don't think you can see anything in the charts anymore (or in the fundamentals) because what the FED decides to do in regards to rates and Ctrl+P has a much bigger impact.

The 2008 crash happened simply because 1) they raised rates the year before, which stopped M2 and M3 money growth and 2) they let Bear go down which telegraphed the FED would not always function as a bailout entity for the credit market in all cases (which it had since LTCM blew up a decade earlier).

We can see the same situation emerging today. 1) The FED is talking about raising rates (I'm still 50/50 on if they have the courage) and 2) letting Greece go down seems more and more likely, which will have the same effect as BearStearns. Bear caused the credit market to realize it was possible to lose money with bank credit, which caused a bank run and crashed the system. Greece will make the credit market realize it is possible to lose money with sovereign credit, which will cause a sovereign run. If you thought a bank credit run was ugly, wait till you see a sovereign credit run.



It crashed in 2008 because of the greed on wallstreet caused by repackaging debt of households that couldn't afford the mortgages.. the math model was assuming that a large % of people wouldn't go bankrupt at the same time which they did and caused a ripple effect. THey did make some changes but didnt make enough... however it will rise until it breaks because there is so much money just sitting around waiting to be put somewhere.
rocks
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1153


View Profile
April 15, 2015, 01:02:37 AM
 #22778

It crashed in 2008 because of the greed on wallstreet caused by repackaging debt of households that couldn't afford the mortgages.. the math model was assuming that a large % of people wouldn't go bankrupt at the same time which they did and caused a ripple effect. THey did make some changes but didnt make enough... however it will rise until it breaks because there is so much money just sitting around waiting to be put somewhere.

That was the symptom, but not the cause.

The cause was following the LTCM blow-up, the FED made it clear to creditors that they would always be bailed out and there was no risk to lending money. LTCM was levered 50 to 1, this means that for every dollar invested they borrowed 50 dollars from creditors. When LTCM went down creditors lost billions. However the FED engineered a group bailout by the banks where equity holders lost big, but more importantly credit holders recovered 100% of their principle. This was historic and it was a first.

This action created the moral hazard where it was now known the FED would restore creditors from their bad decisions and protect them from any and ALL loses. After LTCM the credit market went wild. Credit standards crashed and no one was worried because the assumption was the FED would keep them whole.

One symptom of this was the low standard mortgage debt issued (that you mention), in 2006 no one thought they could lose money because the FED would backstop fannie mae. Another symptom was every bank was able to leverage anything (no matter how junky) and IBs went to record amounts of leverage themselves.

After Bear went down, the FED again saved creditors. But this time it telegraphed that it was worried about the current state of the credit market (which it created) and may not do this again. Smart investors understood this and started to remove their exposure to credit instruments. This in turn put pressure on the credit system.

Then when Lehman went under stress the FED finally said no more, closed their liquidity window with them, and stated creditors were on their own. The run was immediate and Lehman was bankrupt in less than an hour.

This demonstrated 1 thing:
- The entire credit market existed and depended upon an implicit understanding that the FED would bail creditors out. With this understanding default risk is removed and high leverage is possible. Without this understanding risk returns and existing leverage must unwind.

Today we see the same thing with sovereign debt. No one believes any real government will default, and that the IMF or someone will always come in and bail them out. When Greece exits the euro and defaults, creditors will see that there are risks and start to price that back in. If suddenly you become worried that default risk is real, why the hell would you lend money to Spain or Japan at < 1% rates? No upside but you risk the principle. Sovereign debt valuations are based only on the (false) belief that established governments will never default.

So it comes back to my original point. Everything is enabled, supported and depends on the central banks. They enable credit bubbles in the first place. Once they are either unwilling or unable to continue artificial support, credit will deleverage which will cause the market will go down. Their only alternative is to hit Cntl+P hard.
explorer
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1050



View Profile
April 15, 2015, 01:52:36 AM
 #22779

Quote
No one believes any real government will default

This is bizarre,  since throughout history, it's pretty much the rule that governments default eventually.  Of course, most people these days haven't a clue about history, since they are 'schooled' by the very same defaulting governments.
rocks
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1153


View Profile
April 15, 2015, 02:01:04 AM
 #22780

Quote
No one believes any real government will default

This is bizarre,  since throughout history, it's pretty much the rule that governments default eventually.  Of course, most people these days haven't a clue about history, since they are 'schooled' by the very same defaulting governments.

The difference is this time there are these bailout entities such as the IMF, who's sole purpose is to keep creditors 100% whole and socialize loses (on us). It's not that people believe governments such as Greece won't default, but that a bailout entity will come in and save the day.

This distorts risk by enabling credit to leverage up. Eventually it comes back down to normal levels one way or another. To give an indication of how bad the unwind can become, here is a chart of Debt vs GDP. The tiny blip caused the 2008 crash, now imagine if we go back to historically normal levels.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/04/pmr%200.0.jpg
Pages: « 1 ... 1089 1090 1091 1092 1093 1094 1095 1096 1097 1098 1099 1100 1101 1102 1103 1104 1105 1106 1107 1108 1109 1110 1111 1112 1113 1114 1115 1116 1117 1118 1119 1120 1121 1122 1123 1124 1125 1126 1127 1128 1129 1130 1131 1132 1133 1134 1135 1136 1137 1138 [1139] 1140 1141 1142 1143 1144 1145 1146 1147 1148 1149 1150 1151 1152 1153 1154 1155 1156 1157 1158 1159 1160 1161 1162 1163 1164 1165 1166 1167 1168 1169 1170 1171 1172 1173 1174 1175 1176 1177 1178 1179 1180 1181 1182 1183 1184 1185 1186 1187 1188 1189 ... 1560 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!