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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1979167 times)
cypherdoc
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March 24, 2015, 02:34:21 AM
 #22181

i'm not making the argument with tvbcof that gvt won't enforce unreasonable laws onto Bitcoin.  that probably is in Bitcoin's future.

what i'm arguing is their ability to actively taint tx's, either thru addresses or UTXO's.   that's not technically possible for them and also for those they demand to do so.  thus, their work will be cut out for them, assuming they need to actually track and enforce against those who disobey.

OK, got it.

For a modern day example, they are effectively banning the use of cash. So that everything is electronic and fully tracked in their financial system.
http://mises.org/blog/fighting-war-terror-banning-cash

In theory it should be impossible to enforce a cash ban, after all cash is similar to bitcoin it is not traceable and transactions are permanent, but in practice I am sure most businesses and individuals will voluntarily comply making the ban 99% effective.

I think what tvbcof is getting at is their ability to force major transaction points into their own system, will enable a government to effectively create a 'whitelist' bitcoin economy that is tracked an monitored. Yes, bitcoin will process coin transfers regardless of their whitelist / blacklist status, but what good is that if your employer, grocer, butcher, pizza man, electric, water & internet/phone utilities, etc. go along with the whitelist and only accept transactions from gov approved sources?

If this sounds far-fetched, well I'd challenge you to pay these firms with cash after the gov eventually forbids cash usage and demands electronic payments only. After that ban your cash would be useless, unless you can whitelist it into a bank account.

It's not technically possible to taint/track bitcoin, any more than it is not technically possible to ban cash transfers or gold transfers, yet these things can and still do happen.

on balance, i think it's too late to make Bitcoin illegal or even put sharp restrictions on it here in the US.  

mainly b/c it's global and their are too many large, legitimate US investors involved already.  think NYSE, NASDAQ, multiple hedge funds, banks, VC funds, and numerous financial luminaries and Wall St folk.  just about the entire Silicon Valley wants it as fintech has been irrationally and unfairly excluded from financial innovation forever.  this is their time.  Wall St has begun to sense the inevitability and are climbing aboard.  there are plenty of overt data points and pending signs.
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marcus_of_augustus
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March 24, 2015, 03:05:23 AM
 #22182

http://www.gizmag.com/cannae-reactionless-drive-space-propulsion/33210/

cypherdoc
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March 24, 2015, 03:18:08 AM
 #22183


an armada of BitSats encircling the Earth.
tvbcof
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March 24, 2015, 03:25:33 AM
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on balance, i think it's too late to make Bitcoin illegal or even put sharp restrictions on it here in the US.  

mainly b/c it's global and their are too many large, legitimate US investors involved already.  think NYSE, NASDAQ, multiple hedge funds, banks, VC funds, and numerous financial luminaries and Wall St folk.  just about the entire Silicon Valley wants it as fintech has been irrationally and unfairly excluded from financial innovation forever.  this is their time.  Wall St has begun to sense the inevitability and are climbing aboard.  there are plenty of overt data points and pending signs.

I'm sure glad that there are so few investors that are doing well with the existing fiat system otherwise they might have an interest in making sure Bitcoin did not threaten them.

'on balance', I'm pretty sure that most of these 'investors' want more than anything to see a system which will empower the plebs and give them the tools needed to break out of debt slavery and exploitation by...um...


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March 24, 2015, 03:45:19 AM
 #22185


and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

cypherdoc
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March 24, 2015, 03:52:44 AM
 #22186


and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

talk about robotics.  these guys are amazing.  maybe they have a future in asteroid mining:

http://geekologie.com/2013/10/boston-dynamics-humanoid-atlas-robot-tac.php
tvbcof
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March 24, 2015, 04:04:13 AM
 #22187


and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

Because everyone knows that asteroids, comets, planetoids, moons, etc are primarily composed of gold while containing significant fractions of silver, platinum, and other valuable rare-earth metals as well.  I mean, if these elements are rare here on earth they must be somewhere else instead.  Logic 101.

If I were an investor, it might occur to me that a guy cannot win for loosing here.  That is to say, if one came back with the Nostromo, Rolls-Royce N66 Cyclone thrust engines straining against the mass of all of the gold, and the promise of doing it again and again, the value of gold would likely fall dramatically thus making the investment a loser.  And if the chief warrant officer blew the ship up to try to kill an alien, the results for my bottom line would be even more discouraging.


79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX
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March 24, 2015, 04:21:03 AM
 #22188

We will need precious & rare metals for industrial purposes, not to store value.

We have a different solution for that. Get on with the program, b.
tvbcof
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March 24, 2015, 04:26:16 AM
 #22189

We will need precious & rare metals for industrial purposes, not to store value.

We have a different solution for that. Get on with the program, b.

Industrial purposes like what?  Niobium hyper-drive magnets?  Would not the same basic economic principles apply?


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March 24, 2015, 04:26:55 AM
 #22190


and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

Because everyone knows that asteroids, comets, planetoids, moons, etc are primarily composed of gold while containing significant fractions of silver, platinum, and other valuable rare-earth metals as well.  I mean, if these elements are rare here on earth they must be somewhere else instead.  Logic 101.


... you need to do some more homework instead of demonstrating your ignorance in something outside your field?

Hint: the extreme, and comparatively "unusual" press., temp. history of asteroids (orbiting a star in a vacuum) means indeed they sometimes have pure deposits (i.e. read come and pick me up pure) plat. group metals and other metals in quantities quite uncommon in the Earth's crust, everything else has boiled or sublimated away. What were you expecting Hawaiian volcanic loam? Or Texan alluvial plains? Sheesh. Troll 101.

tvbcof
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March 24, 2015, 04:35:42 AM
 #22191


and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

Because everyone knows that asteroids, comets, planetoids, moons, etc are primarily composed of gold while containing significant fractions of silver, platinum, and other valuable rare-earth metals as well.  I mean, if these elements are rare here on earth they must be somewhere else instead.  Logic 101.


... you need to do some more homework instead of demonstrating your ignorance in something outside your field?

Hint: the extreme, and comparatively "unusual" press., temp. history of asteroids (orbiting a star in a vacuum) means indeed they sometimes have pure deposits (i.e. read come and pick me up pure) plat. group metals and other metals in quantities quite uncommon in the Earth's crust, everything else has boiled or sublimated away. What were you expecting Hawaiian volcanic loam? Or Texan alluvial plains? Sheesh. Troll 101.

Thanks for the field report Dr. Spock.


marcus_of_augustus
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March 24, 2015, 04:42:03 AM
 #22192


and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

Because everyone knows that asteroids, comets, planetoids, moons, etc are primarily composed of gold while containing significant fractions of silver, platinum, and other valuable rare-earth metals as well.  I mean, if these elements are rare here on earth they must be somewhere else instead.  Logic 101.


... you need to do some more homework instead of demonstrating your ignorance in something outside your field?

Hint: the extreme, and comparatively "unusual" press., temp. history of asteroids (orbiting a star in a vacuum) means indeed they sometimes have pure deposits (i.e. read come and pick me up pure) plat. group metals and other metals in quantities quite uncommon in the Earth's crust, everything else has boiled or sublimated away. What were you expecting Hawaiian volcanic loam? Or Texan alluvial plains? Sheesh. Troll 101.
Thanks for the field report Dr. Spock.

You're welcome cowpoke Earthling.  Wink

justusranvier
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March 24, 2015, 04:49:26 AM
 #22193

Too soon to celebrate.

https://www.reddit.com/r/engineering/comments/2ckcb3/wishful_thinking_confirmation_bias_and_the_emdrive/

marcus_of_augustus
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March 24, 2015, 04:54:19 AM
 #22194


mmm, I know but it bears some watching, the reactions are always informative and the lulz are worth it.

rocks
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March 24, 2015, 05:23:33 AM
 #22195

on balance, i think it's too late to make Bitcoin illegal or even put sharp restrictions on it here in the US.  

mainly b/c it's global and their are too many large, legitimate US investors involved already.  think NYSE, NASDAQ, multiple hedge funds, banks, VC funds, and numerous financial luminaries and Wall St folk.  just about the entire Silicon Valley wants it as fintech has been irrationally and unfairly excluded from financial innovation forever.  this is their time.  Wall St has begun to sense the inevitability and are climbing aboard.  there are plenty of overt data points and pending signs.

They definitely won't make it illegal, I'm sorry if that's how what i said came across

Of course you can still use bitcoin, this is the land of the free. However, to stop money laundering and save us from terrorists, drug dealers and sex traffickers everyone has to use this government issued wallet software to transfer bitcoins, which enables tracking of all whitelist coins.

Yes bitcoin will still confirm any transaction, but if you ever transfer one of your whitelist coins from coinbase or your employer to a non-whitelist coin by using your own wallet software, you go to jail. If you own a blacklist coin and try to pay any business, they flag the transfer and you go to jail. Technically bitcoin still works and is still legal, but it has been co-opted. The above scenario also isn't that hard to implement, we already have it with banks and cash.

Yesterday it was the same with gold, they didn't outlaw gold per se, instead they said you had to transfer gold to the gov who gave you an equivalent amount of dollars that were the same as gold, that they could now track within the banks.

Today it is the same with cash, they are not outlawing cash, but any amount or transaction above a nominal amount has to be kept in electronic form in bank accounts, enabling full tracking and ownership by the government, this is today. They could easily legislate this for bitcoin.

The only thing that stops that from happening is a large enough percentage of the population saying no. It sounds that many here think there will be enough who say no, my fear is there isn't.

Also, if this is how it plays out, we'll all be rich as sin. Provided of course that we whitelist our coins and pay our due (taxes). If not, you go to jail. Given this choice I'm sure many here will choose to whitelist their coins and retire. And that is how the government continues to grow.
tvbcof
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March 24, 2015, 06:38:17 AM
 #22196


They definitely won't make it illegal, I'm sorry if that's how what i said came across

Of course you can still use bitcoin, this is the land of the free. However, to stop money laundering and save us from terrorists, drug dealers and sex traffickers everyone has to use this government issued wallet software to transfer bitcoins, which enables tracking of all whitelist coins.

Yes bitcoin will still confirm any transaction, but if you ever transfer one of your whitelist coins from coinbase or your employer to a non-whitelist coin by using your own wallet software, you go to jail. If you own a blacklist coin and try to pay any business, they flag the transfer and you go to jail. Technically bitcoin still works and is still legal, but it has been co-opted. The above scenario also isn't that hard to implement, we already have it with banks and cash.

Yesterday it was the same with gold, they didn't outlaw gold per se, instead they said you had to transfer gold to the gov who gave you an equivalent amount of dollars that were the same as gold, that they could now track within the banks.

Today it is the same with cash, they are not outlawing cash, but any amount or transaction above a nominal amount has to be kept in electronic form in bank accounts, enabling full tracking and ownership by the government, this is today. They could easily legislate this for bitcoin.

The only thing that stops that from happening is a large enough percentage of the population saying no. It sounds that many here think there will be enough who say no, my fear is there isn't.

Also, if this is how it plays out, we'll all be rich as sin. Provided of course that we whitelist our coins and pay our due (taxes). If not, you go to jail. Given this choice I'm sure many here will choose to whitelist their coins and retire.

The point I've been trying to make for a long time now is that 'quality' is vastly more important here than 'quantity'.

If native Bitcoin were used almost exclusively by entities who had some immunity to the problems than can vex an individual of the masses then the system might have a chance.  Of course the system would also need to be defensible, and being a tiny system like our current 7 TPS implementation goes a long way.  Operators who are highly proficient and motivated could probably maintain a functional system without use of the global internet at all, or at least uses it in such a way as to be undetected and thus more difficult to attack.

This has nothing to do with being 'elite' or whatever.  The beauty of sidechains with it's two-way-peg would be that it would spread the brute strength of native Bitcoin around to a multitude of sidechains users of all varieties.  I'd anticipate many sidechains 'playing ball' with the authorities and being as invasive as the govt demands.  Fine.  I don't give two shits if Uncle Sam knows that I bought a burger at Mon Mar 23 22:40:30 PDT 2015 with McDonaldscoin which I acquired from Bob on Tue Apr 29 12:15:56 PDT 2014.  When I want privacy I'll use a sidechain which is more focused on that problem or native Bitcoin itself.

A very valid argument is that if the government could mandate whitelisting for one-size-for-all Bitcoin they could do so for native Bitcoin used primarily as a balancing and backing currency as well?  My theory is that with 'power users' forming the mainstay of the userbase in this case they would be less susceptible to coercion and better prepared to defend against it.  And again, the smaller the system core can be, the more options it has to hide.  'Small' in this case is, if anything, inversely proportional to value since the real value would be the ability to remain autonomous of coercive regimes.  The value would be effectively the summation of the value of all presently active sidechains.

I would point out also that currency systems are quite empowering in a number of ways.  That's why governments try to monopolize them and why other entities regularly try to create their own.  The interest in coupons and gift cards and such exemplify this to some degree.  A ready-made sidechain solution which an entity could adopt which rides on a proven and valuable backing store (hopefully Bitcoin) would be a juicy morsel for all manner of entities and some of them quite large and powerful.  If these types could be enlisted in support of native Bitcoin (knowing that govt subversion of it would ruin their sidechain value) then they make potentially powerful allies.  Much more so than some number of individual plebs even if that number was fairly large and it is highly questionable that it ever really would be.


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March 24, 2015, 06:44:15 AM
 #22197


Yesterday it was the same with gold, they didn't outlaw gold per se, instead they said you had to transfer gold to the gov who gave you an equivalent amount of dollars that were the same as gold, that they could now track within the banks.

Today it is the same with cash, they are not outlawing cash, but any amount or transaction above a nominal amount has to be kept in electronic form in bank accounts, enabling full tracking and ownership by the government, this is today. They could easily legislate this for bitcoin.


They were able to introduce paper dollars because these are, in many ways, better than gold coins; then they were able to introduce electronic dollars because these are, in many ways, better than paper dollars. But this works as long as the new system reduces friction in payments. Now the game is over.

http://elbitcoin.org - Bitcoin en español
http://mercadobitcoin.com - MercadoBitcoin
sickpig
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March 24, 2015, 07:11:30 AM
 #22198

If Gavin is worried about not being able to fork after the next potential burst why not apply Justus idea [1], too much coding with not enough time?
[1]https://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2015/02/09/economic-fallacies-and-the-block-size-limit-part-2-price-discovery/

Because who pays for that coding? And who can be sure that the proposal, even if completed and tested, will be adopted?

Andresen's position seems to be: (i) he takes responsibility for coding and testing a solution that as far as he can see takes care of the issue well into the future (ii) he does this with sufficient time for others to analyze it, so that, whatever else happens (iii) there is at least one safe fall-back option.

Can he guarantee his proposal is optimal? Of course not. It is just quite reassuring for it to be out.



All you said is correct independently from the adopted solution. The chief scientist is in charge and he's doing what he think is the best compromise between techinal and political aspects to get the changes accepted. i got it. All come down to accountability and feasibility.

And I want to underline that I really do appreciate the way is moving both on the technical and political ground.

What I think is tha Justus' proposal has solid theoretical economic background, a brilliant way to introduce a price discovery mechanism for the P2P network and, more to the point, it kills to birds with one stone introducing an economic incentive for people to run full nodes.

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
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March 24, 2015, 07:20:45 AM
 #22199

JR,

what's up with Odom leaving Monetas?
I only know one side of the story right now, so I can't really say.

Why aren't more people talking about this? OT was supposed to be huge for Bitcoin, it was Chris' baby for a long time now...

well i tried
https://github.com/FellowTraveler?tab=activity

Ok got it. Almost one year of inactivity on the OT pub repo. So it started long ago it's not that all of sudden he decided to leave monetas (or have been "fired" fwiw).

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
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March 24, 2015, 03:07:14 PM
 #22200

here is just quote of the ex-CEO of Credit Suisse, actually linking both gold and Bitcoin and not putting them in the two opposite camps:
http://cointelegraph.com/news/113441/ex-credit-suisse-ceo-invest-in-gold-and-bitcoin-long-term-not-fiat

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