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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807131 times)
sidhujag
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March 26, 2015, 03:20:20 PM
 #22301

The published piece to read would be: 'Ideal Money', John F. Nash, Jr.,  Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 69, No. 1 (Jul., 2002), pp. 4-11.

If someone can't get access and has a public repository where I can put a copy, I'd be glad to.

As for Nash being Satoshi ... very doubtful (the incomprehensible video starts with: "Bitcoin might not be it ... but gold or silver ..."). But he, like Hayek before him, has been talking about a nationless currency whose supply is outside of political control.

i'd not heard this one before today:  Satoshi Nakamoto = IAmNash sato koto

interesting...

Yup.. and also Szabo is a word in Chinese spelled Nash backwards or something.

He talks about ideal currency and hints that USD with central bank inflation targetting is ideal but not really ideal...just good enough for now because there is no alternative and smart money is searching for the asymptotically ideal currency which offers a better more stable token based on non political control over supply... hello proof of work (owing debt) based on the efficiency of energy can't get a better source of a commodity that can't be manipulated. Unless you can create free energy, proof of work will always be worth atleast the amount of energy put into it (although it doesn't right now because of speculative pressures).

and it's more than just the electricity + hardware that a gvt would have to overcome.  there's the unfactored costs related to sweat equity, entrepreneurship, and ancillary supplies put into mining.  take my word for it, there are numerous cables, heatsinks, extra power supplies, risers, racks, AC, fans, etc that need to be bought and assembled.  there's the knowledge factor of programming all that hardware to maximum efficiency.  and all the time and frustration.  i have a busy day job yet i was willing to put in the time at night and on weekends to get my hardware up and running.  and that doesn't count the problems that take more time troubleshooting or going in on weekends.  that's all voluntary and uncompensated when doing the calculations for ROI.

i'll tell you what drives that; the profit motive.  massive profit motive as we've seen since 2011.  mining BTC with expectations that they will increase in value as digital gold and possibly as a replacement reserve currency.  how many gvt workers would be willing to put in all that time and effort towards launching a 51% attack?  answer:  none.  many of them probably own some BTC and would be somewhat reluctant.  and this doesn't account for Bitcoin miners holding some hashrate back to protect against such an attack.  i'm holding back an admittedly smallish 2TH/s to bring online in case of an emergency.  how many others are doing the same?  anyone who wants to attack the network better factor in at least another 50% HR in costs if they dare do such a thing.  

and if Gavin is right about stuffing such an attack quickly and easily, who's gonna take the blame for wasting $100M of taxpayer money or whatever the # is?  there is such a thing as suing the federal gvt that needs to be considered as well if they mess with private property outside the law.
Im not talking about that its assumed govt cant control energy efficiency. Im talking about using it as an index like cpi to dtermine economy.. Rather than interest rate targeting done randomely it seems. Anyways it lines up well with the notion of work which requires energy.. When you pay someone you are transfering work for proof of work... Makes total sense, the amount someone is willing to exchange is the price which is determined by how expensive it is to mine a bitcoin.. Even as it becomes more efficient... There is incentive to increase efficiency in mining which becomes a power problem rather than an asic algo issue.. Kinda like silicon hitting its hard limits on cpus and now having to solve the real problem of making things smaller in electronics while decreasing power usage and increasing calculations per second...
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iCEBREAKER
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Crypto is the separation of Power and State.


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March 26, 2015, 06:04:15 PM
 #22302

Bitcoin and shitcoins are technological dinosaurs. We all know what happened to dinosaurs amirite?

The dinosaurs needed to lay their eggs in nests inaccessible to those pesky little mammals, so they evolved into birds.

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Wallets - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }


Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

"Hard forks cannot be co
tabnloz
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March 26, 2015, 10:45:55 PM
 #22303

Dearest NLC,

Quote
It's "inseparable from bitcoin" only according to pyramid schemers like you.

Bitcoiners: "So we have this blockchain thing, it's a "DECENTRALISED" distributed ledger and it has potential but bitcoin is a necessary component, you are forced to adopt it if you want the blockchain"

Everybody else: "Ok, but we don't need this bitcoin currency "I don't think anyone needs this bitcoin currency", only drug dealers, paranoid libertards, scammers and ponzi speculators do"

Bitcoiners: "We don't care. You want the blockchain? You need to adopt bitcoin"

Everybody else: "Alright, then we will create a blockchain/CONSENSUS/distributed ledger thing that doesn't force people to adopt, use, and give a high value to a new currency they don't need. If it's a little CENTRALIZED it's not a problem FOR ME, cuz I THINK decentralization is for libertards."

Bitcoiners: "You can't. It's impossible™"

Everybody else:
http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/01/22/blockchain-things-bot-not-internet-things/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkYVc1YsGCc


More coming soon.


Avoid being disingenuous by omitting relevant information.

Stop conflating your opinion with fact.
cypherdoc
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March 26, 2015, 10:48:45 PM
 #22304

Dearest NLC,

Quote
It's "inseparable from bitcoin" only according to pyramid schemers like you.

Bitcoiners: "So we have this blockchain thing, it's a "DECENTRALISED" distributed ledger and it has potential but bitcoin is a necessary component, you are forced to adopt it if you want the blockchain"

Everybody else: "Ok, but we don't need this bitcoin currency "I don't think anyone needs this bitcoin currency", only drug dealers, paranoid libertards, scammers and ponzi speculators do"

Bitcoiners: "We don't care. You want the blockchain? You need to adopt bitcoin"

Everybody else: "Alright, then we will create a blockchain/CONSENSUS/distributed ledger thing that doesn't force people to adopt, use, and give a high value to a new currency they don't need. If it's a little CENTRALIZED it's not a problem FOR ME, cuz I THINK decentralization is for libertards."

Bitcoiners: "You can't. It's impossible™"

Everybody else:
http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/01/22/blockchain-things-bot-not-internet-things/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkYVc1YsGCc


More coming soon.


Avoid being disingenuous by omitting relevant information.

Stop conflating your opinion with fact.

that post just shows he doesn't understand the first thing about Bitcoin and is only here to troll.
cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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March 27, 2015, 11:12:20 AM
 #22305

People are looking at the prices on exchanges that will soon be obsolete.  When the next jump happens, the exchanges will be bypassed in favor of Wall Street. Billions will be traded and amateur exchanges will melt. We won't need to check price websites. They will be quoting Winkdex.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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March 27, 2015, 12:23:49 PM
 #22306

People are looking at the prices on exchanges that will soon be obsolete.  When the next jump happens, the exchanges will be bypassed in favor of Wall Street. Billions will be traded and amateur exchanges will melt. We won't need to check price websites. They will be quoting Winkdex.

Imho there is no jump to be expected until next halving. Everything else happening is just noise.

Ps: screw wall street!
NotHatinJustTrollin
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March 27, 2015, 12:38:27 PM
 #22307

People are looking at the prices on exchanges that will soon be obsolete.  When the next jump happens, the exchanges will be bypassed in favor of Wall Street. Billions will be traded and amateur exchanges will melt. We won't need to check price websites. They will be quoting Winkdex.
Cool story bro.
I have been hearing this "Wall Street is coming" vague fantasy since the beginning of 2014.
I thought they were supposed to come (for real this time) with Coinbase regulated™ exchange. Where are they? In the 800k in bids there?

Oh yes, I forgot they are secretly crashing the price to accumulate  Cheesy




Hint: Opening up a market where they could get in doesn't mean they will  Cheesy

     Cheesy
   Cheesy Cheesy
 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Zangelbert Bingledack
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March 27, 2015, 02:46:20 PM
 #22308

Imho there is no jump to be expected until next halving. Everything else happening is just noise.

I've never seen the halving-drives-bubbles argument fully explained. It seems to me that since we are talking about CCMF price jumps of at least tenfold, and the inflation rate is nowhere near that, then either most bitcoins are immovable or the halving isn't in fact that important.

For example, if we have an inflation rate of 10% per year but investment increases tenfold during the year, then we still get roughly a 9x increase in price. Now if half the coins are immovable, either because they are lost or because for some reason the holders refuse to cash any out, then the effective inflation rate looks more like 20%. If 3/4 of the coins are immobile, then 40%. And if investment only increases by say 4x per year, then I think that's only like a 2.5x price increase during the non-halving years. But 4x vs. 2.5x is still not that much of a difference.

If the halving does make a huge difference, I would have to conclude that it's because few bitcoins actually make it to market for whatever reason. Perhaps it's the Bitcoin Baron's Paradox: "After the first few million dollars, why cash out any more? Fiat currency is a downright dangerous place to park your money!" (It could get frozen, banks could fail, dollar could collapse, etc. Gold has jurisdictional risks. Bitcoin is the ideal place for savings, so even if the price rises there is no reason to cash out very much more.)
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March 27, 2015, 02:52:04 PM
 #22309

If the halving does make a huge difference, I would have to conclude that it's because few bitcoins make it to market for whatever reason. Perhaps it's the Bitcoin Baron's Paradox: "After the first few million dollars, why cash out any more? Fiat currency is a downright dangerous place to park your money, it could get frozen, banks could fail, dollar could collapse, etc. Gold has jurisdictional risks. Bitcoin is the ideal place for savings, so even if the price rises there is no reason to cash out significantly more."
Bitcoin adoption is a form of emigration.

Prediction models whose accuracy depends on a long term stable equilibrium between Bitcoin and national currencies are wrong.
Zangelbert Bingledack
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March 27, 2015, 03:01:00 PM
 #22310

Bitcoin adoption is a form of emigration.

Prediction models whose accuracy depends on a long term stable equilibrium between Bitcoin and national currencies are wrong.

I guess we can say that either the halvings do make a huge difference and emigration into Bitcoin is already happening to a substantial degree, presumably usually for the practical reasons I mentioned, or the halvings don't make a huge difference and emigration isn't really happening but instead people are mostly optimizing for ending up with the most fiat. If the next halving triggers another moonshoot then we'll have additional confirmation that emigration is a much bigger factor than merely people playing for fiat profit.

I certainly don't expect a long-term stable equilibrium: if Bitcoin succeeds, fiat has nowhere to go but zero. However, I'm surprised that the emigration dynamic could already be taking hold to the extent that halvings would make such an enormous difference.

Do you think the emigration dynamic is being driven by the reasons I mentioned (Bitcoin Baron's Paradox / Bitcoin is just a safer, wiser, more flexible and reliable place to keep your nest egg), or more by ideology, or something else?
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March 27, 2015, 03:29:15 PM
 #22311

Imho there is no jump to be expected until next halving. Everything else happening is just noise.

I've never seen the halving-drives-bubbles argument fully explained. It seems to me that since we are talking about CCMF price jumps of at least tenfold, and the inflation rate is nowhere near that, then either most bitcoins are immovable or the halving isn't in fact that important.

For example, if we have an inflation rate of 10% per year but investment increases tenfold during the year, then we still get roughly a 9x increase in price. Now if half the coins are immovable, either because they are lost or because for some reason the holders refuse to cash any out, then the effective inflation rate looks more like 20%. If 3/4 of the coins are immobile, then 40%. And if investment only increases by say 4x per year, then I think that's only like a 2.5x price increase during the non-halving years. But 4x vs. 2.5x is still not that much of a difference.

If the halving does make a huge difference, I would have to conclude that it's because few bitcoins actually make it to market for whatever reason. Perhaps it's the Bitcoin Baron's Paradox: "After the first few million dollars, why cash out any more? Fiat currency is a downright dangerous place to park your money!" (It could get frozen, banks could fail, dollar could collapse, etc. Gold has jurisdictional risks. Bitcoin is the ideal place for savings, so even if the price rises there is no reason to cash out very much more.)

Im not quite sure I have the linguistics to fully explain my thoughts on this halving matter but i'll try..

So I understand Bitcoin's price as an equilibrium between the costs of the network to be operational (& secure) and pure speculation, which mostly derive from news (whether about Gox or Wall Street, which i rather call noise anyway).

However, regarding huge variations, which also happens quickly, i figured the speculation (news) part lags and tend to follow the price. Ergo, during last bubble, one might have had the illusion that the 'senate hearing' caused the ATH, but it was underway before that if you look closely.

I know that there has been more 'bubbles' than halvings since 2009, but i wouldnt weight equally the 2$ - 30$ - 200$ vs the 1200$ bubble.
For the first three, speculation and a bit of push from the early investors probably did the trick.
The last one OTOH was driven by more than simple speculation and MK's willy bot. The goodwill to sustain such skyrocketing direction and the inflow of money necessary was due, in my sense, to the simple anticipation of half less bitcoins hitting the market.

So for now, bitcoin monetary system is inflatory since ~5k BTC are mined everyday. Im not arguing where they end up, sold or hold, im just stating a fact, but i know people would disagree b/c of the 21M cap.
But whatever, economically, the effect is that we are in an inflatory system - for now. Hence, down we go.

However this inflation will be disturbed by halvings, making bitcoins less and less abundant. This is a deflationary mechanism. Hence, up we go.

The beauty of halving to me is that it encompasses both basic but huge economical and speculation effects. You just cant fight it.

So better watch out when the block reward will be halved to 12,5BTC Wink

Anyhow thats just my 2cent on the matter..


If the halving does make a huge difference, I would have to conclude that it's because few bitcoins make it to market for whatever reason. Perhaps it's the Bitcoin Baron's Paradox: "After the first few million dollars, why cash out any more? Fiat currency is a downright dangerous place to park your money, it could get frozen, banks could fail, dollar could collapse, etc. Gold has jurisdictional risks. Bitcoin is the ideal place for savings, so even if the price rises there is no reason to cash out significantly more."
Bitcoin adoption is a form of emigration.

Prediction models whose accuracy depends on a long term stable equilibrium between Bitcoin and national currencies are wrong.

Bitcoin is a safe haven. People emigrating shouldnt if they only aim at buying frappucinos. It a wonderful and even more powerful tool to break free from financial oppression - or at least part of, cuz you still live in The SystemTM ya know..

Anyhow true that there wont be a stable equilibrium between Bitcoin and national currency debt.
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March 27, 2015, 03:29:55 PM
 #22312


Thank you
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March 27, 2015, 09:34:06 PM
 #22313

Imho there is no jump to be expected until next halving. Everything else happening is just noise.

I've never seen the halving-drives-bubbles argument fully explained. It seems to me that since we are talking about CCMF price jumps of at least tenfold, and the inflation rate is nowhere near that, then either most bitcoins are immovable or the halving isn't in fact that important.

For example, if we have an inflation rate of 10% per year but investment increases tenfold during the year, then we still get roughly a 9x increase in price. Now if half the coins are immovable, either because they are lost or because for some reason the holders refuse to cash any out, then the effective inflation rate looks more like 20%. If 3/4 of the coins are immobile, then 40%. And if investment only increases by say 4x per year, then I think that's only like a 2.5x price increase during the non-halving years. But 4x vs. 2.5x is still not that much of a difference.

If the halving does make a huge difference, I would have to conclude that it's because few bitcoins actually make it to market for whatever reason. Perhaps it's the Bitcoin Baron's Paradox: "After the first few million dollars, why cash out any more? Fiat currency is a downright dangerous place to park your money!" (It could get frozen, banks could fail, dollar could collapse, etc. Gold has jurisdictional risks. Bitcoin is the ideal place for savings, so even if the price rises there is no reason to cash out very much more.)

I believe the halfing will have strong impact and I think you answered your own question (why?) at least partly: a lot of coins are immobile.

You're looking at inflation rate. Let me offer another way to look at this:

(I'm assuming miners are selling 100% of mined coins for simplicity, the argument works with less)

3600 BTC are mined each day. At current market price that's $900,000 worth. These BTC are being bought every day by demand. Now this selling pressure halves and the demand stays the same. Surely what will happen is the price will rise. In case of constant demand of $900k/day it should rise to 500 USD/BTC (merely double). But neither supply nor demand stay constant in such a scenario: supply is likely to decrease, because miners get to hoard more and most importantly demand will rise. Yes, I know, economic theory says demand should drop with a higher price,... but that's forgetting human psychology and the hype a 100% price rise will cause. In other words: the halving (reduction of supply) itself is just the ignition, the real momentum comes from increase of demand.

It worked last time, I think the Q1 2013 rally was caused (or at least substantially contributed to) by the halfing.

Does this make sense at all or is it wishful thinking?

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
cypherdoc
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March 27, 2015, 10:20:52 PM
 #22314

Imho there is no jump to be expected until next halving. Everything else happening is just noise.

I've never seen the halving-drives-bubbles argument fully explained. It seems to me that since we are talking about CCMF price jumps of at least tenfold, and the inflation rate is nowhere near that, then either most bitcoins are immovable or the halving isn't in fact that important.

For example, if we have an inflation rate of 10% per year but investment increases tenfold during the year, then we still get roughly a 9x increase in price. Now if half the coins are immovable, either because they are lost or because for some reason the holders refuse to cash any out, then the effective inflation rate looks more like 20%. If 3/4 of the coins are immobile, then 40%. And if investment only increases by say 4x per year, then I think that's only like a 2.5x price increase during the non-halving years. But 4x vs. 2.5x is still not that much of a difference.

If the halving does make a huge difference, I would have to conclude that it's because few bitcoins actually make it to market for whatever reason. Perhaps it's the Bitcoin Baron's Paradox: "After the first few million dollars, why cash out any more? Fiat currency is a downright dangerous place to park your money!" (It could get frozen, banks could fail, dollar could collapse, etc. Gold has jurisdictional risks. Bitcoin is the ideal place for savings, so even if the price rises there is no reason to cash out very much more.)

I believe the halfing will have strong impact and I think you answered your own question (why?) at least partly: a lot of coins are immobile.

You're looking at inflation rate. Let me offer another way to look at this:

(I'm assuming miners are selling 100% of mined coins for simplicity, the argument works with less)

3600 BTC are mined each day. At current market price that's $900,000 worth. These BTC are being bought every day by demand. Now this selling pressure halves and the demand stays the same. Surely what will happen is the price will rise. In case of constant demand of $900k/day it should rise to 500 USD/BTC (merely double). But neither supply nor demand stay constant in such a scenario: supply is likely to decrease, because miners get to hoard more and most importantly demand will rise. Yes, I know, economic theory says demand should drop with a higher price,... but that's forgetting human psychology and the hype a 100% price rise will cause. In other words: the halving (reduction of supply) itself is just the ignition, the real momentum comes from increase decrease of supply.

It worked last time, I think the Q1 2013 rally was caused (or at least substantially contributed to) by the halfing.

Does this make sense at all or is it wishful thinking?

Up
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March 27, 2015, 10:33:31 PM
 #22315

its all about the hoarding anyway:


http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/end-the-fed-hoard-bitcoins/

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=144911.0
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March 27, 2015, 11:38:43 PM
 #22316

the desperation is palpable.  almost as bad as NJHJT:

The Bitcoin Blockchain Could Be Used to Spread Malware, INTERPOL Says

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/the-bitcoin-blockchain-could-be-used-to-spread-malware-interpol-says?utm_source=mbtwitter
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March 27, 2015, 11:46:16 PM
 #22317

This thread should have an indexIbex.

Anybody know around what page you all were discussing the topic of transaction fees increasing as coinbase rewards decrease?



Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
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March 27, 2015, 11:57:11 PM
 #22318

This thread should have an index.

Anybody know around what page you all were discussing the topic of transaction fees increasing as coinbase rewards are decreasing?
Index:

Pages 1-100: Delusions

Pages 101-300: Fiat sucks

Pages 301-500: Gold sucks too

Pages 501-700: The State and bankers are evil, Bitcoin whales* will save the world

Pages 701-1119: Moar delusions






*:





http://www.deepdotweb.com/2015/03/27/breaking-sheep-marketplace-owner-arrested/
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March 28, 2015, 12:12:11 AM
 #22319

the Tomas dude is pretty hilarious tho. Grin
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March 28, 2015, 12:13:48 AM
 #22320

the Tomas dude is pretty hilarious tho. Grin

This is why we need decentralized autonomous organizations. I guess Huh

Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
Pages: « 1 ... 1066 1067 1068 1069 1070 1071 1072 1073 1074 1075 1076 1077 1078 1079 1080 1081 1082 1083 1084 1085 1086 1087 1088 1089 1090 1091 1092 1093 1094 1095 1096 1097 1098 1099 1100 1101 1102 1103 1104 1105 1106 1107 1108 1109 1110 1111 1112 1113 1114 1115 [1116] 1117 1118 1119 1120 1121 1122 1123 1124 1125 1126 1127 1128 1129 1130 1131 1132 1133 1134 1135 1136 1137 1138 1139 1140 1141 1142 1143 1144 1145 1146 1147 1148 1149 1150 1151 1152 1153 1154 1155 1156 1157 1158 1159 1160 1161 1162 1163 1164 1165 1166 ... 1560 »
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