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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1905410 times)
cypherdoc
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April 15, 2015, 02:43:08 AM
 #22781

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No one believes any real government will default

This is bizarre,  since throughout history, it's pretty much the rule that governments default eventually.  Of course, most people these days haven't a clue about history, since they are 'schooled' by the very same defaulting governments.

The difference is this time there are these bailout entities such as the IMF, who's sole purpose is to keep creditors 100% whole and socialize loses (on us). It's not that people believe governments such as Greece won't default, but that a bailout entity will come in and save the day.


Greece?!   Compared to England, France, Japan, USA, (Your Country HERE) their default won't cause much of a (ehem) ripple.  None of these people have absolutely ANY intention of paying back.  They can't even afford the negative interest rate lol  This just cannot transition smoothly.  IMF et al might be able to bail out smooth over whatever for Greece.  And Portugal. And Spain. And Ireland... What will they be able to do when the measurable economies start to default?  And They Will.  Government spending only slows when the host has expired.

the host, unfortunately, being WE THE PEOPLE.

speculators willingly hoover up gvt bonds knowing full well that ultimately the gvt can tax the ppl to death or mandate pension plans buy gvt bonds to keep their value propped up.  they even willingly pay for the privilege in terms of negative interest rates.  eventually, the stock mkt will be sacrificed to keep the gvt bond buying mirage intact for as long as possible.

we are all going Japanese.
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marcus_of_augustus
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April 15, 2015, 03:01:33 AM
 #22782

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tell me somebody isn't watching the chart of the Transports and stepping in to reverse almost all intraday attempts to violate this support level as evidenced by the spinning top intraday reversals; especially today after the previous singular violation on 4/6.  sure, one can just implicate speculators buying at support but otoh, it could be the Magic Hand of the PPT:

tell me anybody is surprised with this?

the PPT has gotten a lot more sophisticated since the inaugural 1987 rescue, not the least because of the massive profits to be made by it's market-facing, front-running functionaries (JPM, GS, MS).

They are by now undoubtedly running HFT algorithms that monitor, trade (intervene) and control (set levels/bands) all major market pricing to such a fine scale that it is arguable as to whether there isn't ANY major market action that hasn't been officially sanctioned. Flash-crashes being the exception when the FED/USTreas PPT control systems lose control temporarily.

It's just a magic fun game hall of mirrors illusion/casino meant to keep the rubes playing the game and the man-on-street asleep to the underlying corrupt, inefficient dysfunctional financial/monetary system. It really is morphing into a modern version of the Soviet era command-economy with all financial control at the center; everything seems to grind along okay for quite a while but it is terribly inefficient economically, ripe for abuse at all levels and inevitably dies due to paralysing stagnation from gross misallocation of resources due to vibrant creative destruction being denied for decades.

It is again the gray hand of the State clamping down and strangling free markets to death, only this time in a slow painful manner. Look at what happened to bitcoin in USA since Fed/wall st. took an interest, it died.

cypherdoc
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April 15, 2015, 03:19:15 AM
 #22783

Look at what happened to bitcoin in USA since Fed/wall st. took an interest, it died.

i agree with most of what you say except for the above.

yes, i think they are interfering in the Bitcoin price mkt thru derivatives.  but i don't think it is sustainable and they most likely will get whiplashed to the tune of millions of losses when the mkt turns up.  we all should be keeping a close eye out for the first derivatives exchange (here's looking at you BFX) that does a force majeure that forces settlement in USD as opposed to BTC from the lack of available BTC needed to be covered.

i can see why you're so willing to allow change to the source code, you think we've lost the game here in the US and only things like SC's can save us.  have a little more faith.
marcus_of_augustus
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April 15, 2015, 04:18:31 AM
 #22784

Look at what happened to bitcoin in USA since Fed/wall st. took an interest, it died.
yes, i think they are interfering in the Bitcoin price mkt thru derivatives.  but i don't think it is sustainable and they most likely will get whiplashed to the tune of millions of losses when the mkt turns up.  we all should be keeping a close eye out for the first derivatives exchange (here's looking at you BFX) that does a force majeure that forces settlement in USD as opposed to BTC from the lack of available BTC needed to be covered.

if their algos keep a continually falling lid on prices and price perceptions such that the market never "turns up" materially, funded by unlimited supplies of fiat only, then it is an effective social/economic attack that will inevitably sideline bitcoin as a useful currency. The exchanges that facilitate manipulative pricing algorithms on their platforms are accomplices in this attack on bitcoin and imho should be treated as such.

NB: this has nothing to do with my support for implementing 2-way pegs in the protocol.

cypherdoc
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April 15, 2015, 04:37:29 AM
 #22785

Look at what happened to bitcoin in USA since Fed/wall st. took an interest, it died.
yes, i think they are interfering in the Bitcoin price mkt thru derivatives.  but i don't think it is sustainable and they most likely will get whiplashed to the tune of millions of losses when the mkt turns up.  we all should be keeping a close eye out for the first derivatives exchange (here's looking at you BFX) that does a force majeure that forces settlement in USD as opposed to BTC from the lack of available BTC needed to be covered.

if their algos keep a continually falling lid on prices and price perceptions such that the market never "turns up" materially, funded by unlimited supplies of fiat only, then it is an effective social/economic attack that will inevitably sideline bitcoin as a useful currency. The exchanges that facilitate manipulative pricing algorithms on their platforms are accomplices in this attack on bitcoin and imho should be treated as such.

NB: this has nothing to do with my support for implementing 2-way pegs in the protocol.

except that shorting requires borrowing existing BTC on the exchange of which there is only a theoretically limited supply.  this is where naked shorting potentially enters the picture and any exchange who allows this should be black balled and reported to the authorities for illegal practices hopefully to be shut down.  but of course, getting them to do anything is another story.

and yes, i think you're allowing the bear mkt to influence your perception that Bitcoin isn't working in the US.  Bitcoin cannot not work in an isolated geographical region imo.  it will route around that area until it forces capitulation of affected area.
marcus_of_augustus
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April 15, 2015, 05:04:08 AM
 #22786

Look at what happened to bitcoin in USA since Fed/wall st. took an interest, it died.
yes, i think they are interfering in the Bitcoin price mkt thru derivatives.  but i don't think it is sustainable and they most likely will get whiplashed to the tune of millions of losses when the mkt turns up.  we all should be keeping a close eye out for the first derivatives exchange (here's looking at you BFX) that does a force majeure that forces settlement in USD as opposed to BTC from the lack of available BTC needed to be covered.

if their algos keep a continually falling lid on prices and price perceptions such that the market never "turns up" materially, funded by unlimited supplies of fiat only, then it is an effective social/economic attack that will inevitably sideline bitcoin as a useful currency. The exchanges that facilitate manipulative pricing algorithms on their platforms are accomplices in this attack on bitcoin and imho should be treated as such.

NB: this has nothing to do with my support for implementing 2-way pegs in the protocol.

except that shorting requires borrowing existing BTC on the exchange of which there is only a theoretically limited supply.  this is where naked shorting potentially enters the picture and any exchange who allows this should be black balled and reported to the authorities for illegal practices hopefully to be shut down.  but of course, getting them to do anything is another story.

and yes, i think you're allowing the bear mkt to influence your perception that Bitcoin isn't working in the US.  Bitcoin cannot not work in an isolated geographical region imo.  it will route around that area until it forces capitulation of affected area.

I've been through at least 3 bitcoin bear markets (maybe 4?) so I don't think it is doom colouring my perception. Coinbase and Circle are nothing more than revamped PayPals built on top of bitcoin, not sure that BitPay is that much better. End user solutions that maximise the decentralisation benefits of bitcoin's digital cash are not even on the drawing board in USA because of absolute obsequiousness towards the Almighty State dictat there.

Inviting regulation when there was an opportunity for gaining the moral high-ground through legitimate civilian disobedience against the prevalent government push towards ubiquitous financial surveillance is a major error and missed opportunity. The bankster attack dogs will gladly regulate (and fraudulently trade for profit) bitcoin to its obscurity, just like they have done with gold.

cypherdoc
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April 15, 2015, 05:21:09 AM
 #22787

Look at what happened to bitcoin in USA since Fed/wall st. took an interest, it died.
yes, i think they are interfering in the Bitcoin price mkt thru derivatives.  but i don't think it is sustainable and they most likely will get whiplashed to the tune of millions of losses when the mkt turns up.  we all should be keeping a close eye out for the first derivatives exchange (here's looking at you BFX) that does a force majeure that forces settlement in USD as opposed to BTC from the lack of available BTC needed to be covered.

if their algos keep a continually falling lid on prices and price perceptions such that the market never "turns up" materially, funded by unlimited supplies of fiat only, then it is an effective social/economic attack that will inevitably sideline bitcoin as a useful currency. The exchanges that facilitate manipulative pricing algorithms on their platforms are accomplices in this attack on bitcoin and imho should be treated as such.

NB: this has nothing to do with my support for implementing 2-way pegs in the protocol.

except that shorting requires borrowing existing BTC on the exchange of which there is only a theoretically limited supply.  this is where naked shorting potentially enters the picture and any exchange who allows this should be black balled and reported to the authorities for illegal practices hopefully to be shut down.  but of course, getting them to do anything is another story.

and yes, i think you're allowing the bear mkt to influence your perception that Bitcoin isn't working in the US.  Bitcoin cannot not work in an isolated geographical region imo.  it will route around that area until it forces capitulation of affected area.

I've been through at least 3 bitcoin bear markets (maybe 4?) so I don't think it is doom colouring my perception. Coinbase and Circle are nothing more than revamped PayPals built on top of bitcoin, not sure that BitPay is that much better. End user solutions that maximise the decentralisation benefits of bitcoin's digital cash are not even on the drawing board in USA because of absolute obsequiousness towards the Almighty State dictat there.

Inviting regulation when there was an opportunity for gaining the moral high-ground through legitimate civilian disobedience against the prevalent government push towards ubiquitous financial surveillance is a major error and missed opportunity. The bankster attack dogs will gladly regulate (and fraudulently trade for profit) bitcoin to its obscurity, just like they have done with gold.


Bitcoin is different from gold in that it's fixed supply base is easily verifiable in real time.  message signing can be used to verify every holders BTC position as proof.  Merkle tree audits can be used to verify an exchanges holdings.  gold, not at all, being locked up in forts and vaults of exchanges in a few locations.  as a result, the paper gold mkt can be much more easily manipulated.  

but who says it is being manipulated?  i think it is in fact slowly losing its exchange value to Bitcoin.
justusranvier
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April 15, 2015, 11:14:01 AM
 #22788

So it comes back to my original point. Everything is enabled, supported and depends on the central banks. They enable credit bubbles in the first place. Once they are either unwilling or unable to continue artificial support, credit will deleverage which will cause the market will go down. Their only alternative is to hit Cntl+P hard.
The central banks only have two options:

  • They can utterly destroy their respective currencies
  • They can force the governments of the world into operating a balanced budget with a real surplus.

Both of those options are politically impossible, and likely to cause a spontaneous existence failure of both governments and central banks.
justusranvier
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April 15, 2015, 11:19:46 AM
 #22789

if their algos keep a continually falling lid on prices and price perceptions such that the market never "turns up" materially, funded by unlimited supplies of fiat only, then it is an effective social/economic attack that will inevitably sideline bitcoin as a useful currency. The exchanges that facilitate manipulative pricing algorithms on their platforms are accomplices in this attack on bitcoin and imho should be treated as such.
The only thing to worry about is the spread of exchanges that do not allow users to withdraw real bitcoins on the blockchain. I haven't yet seen any of those.

A the monument, I don't care how low they manipulate the price since the lower it goes the more bitcoins I can buy and transfer to cold storage each month.
cypherdoc
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April 15, 2015, 11:25:21 AM
 #22790

Listen carefully, from smericanpegasus:

79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX
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April 15, 2015, 12:52:27 PM
 #22791

The vagaries of cash, or lessons in not controlling your funds:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/uncle-sam-may-have-picked-the-wrong-cash-cow/2015/04/14/227aa73c-de2e-11e4-a500-1c5bb1d8ff6a_story.html
ssmc2
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April 15, 2015, 01:16:07 PM
 #22792


Yep and there's this: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/investigations/2015/03/28/iowa-forfeiture-system-legal-thievery/70600856/

The country I live in disgusts me more and more every day. USSA.

Try taking my private keys Uncle Sam.
brg444
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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks


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April 15, 2015, 01:44:09 PM
 #22793

Look at what happened to bitcoin in USA since Fed/wall st. took an interest, it died.
yes, i think they are interfering in the Bitcoin price mkt thru derivatives.  but i don't think it is sustainable and they most likely will get whiplashed to the tune of millions of losses when the mkt turns up.  we all should be keeping a close eye out for the first derivatives exchange (here's looking at you BFX) that does a force majeure that forces settlement in USD as opposed to BTC from the lack of available BTC needed to be covered.

if their algos keep a continually falling lid on prices and price perceptions such that the market never "turns up" materially, funded by unlimited supplies of fiat only, then it is an effective social/economic attack that will inevitably sideline bitcoin as a useful currency. The exchanges that facilitate manipulative pricing algorithms on their platforms are accomplices in this attack on bitcoin and imho should be treated as such.

NB: this has nothing to do with my support for implementing 2-way pegs in the protocol.

except that shorting requires borrowing existing BTC on the exchange of which there is only a theoretically limited supply.  this is where naked shorting potentially enters the picture and any exchange who allows this should be black balled and reported to the authorities for illegal practices hopefully to be shut down.  but of course, getting them to do anything is another story.

and yes, i think you're allowing the bear mkt to influence your perception that Bitcoin isn't working in the US.  Bitcoin cannot not work in an isolated geographical region imo.  it will route around that area until it forces capitulation of affected area.

I've been through at least 3 bitcoin bear markets (maybe 4?) so I don't think it is doom colouring my perception. Coinbase and Circle are nothing more than revamped PayPals built on top of bitcoin, not sure that BitPay is that much better. End user solutions that maximise the decentralisation benefits of bitcoin's digital cash are not even on the drawing board in USA because of absolute obsequiousness towards the Almighty State dictat there.

There is Abra which is a considerable challenge to AML/KYC laws

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
lunarboy
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April 15, 2015, 02:17:13 PM
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but who says it is being manipulated?  i think it is in fact slowly losing its exchange value to Bitcoin.

Since that's rather nicely back to the OP. I'm still not convinced you're going to be 'medium time frame' correct on that one.  I believe it's much more probable that these global currency wars will escalate and both bitcoin and gold will go up as last resort stores of value. Gold is hoarded by nation states as such they are traditional and slow to change. Perhaps on a 20 year time frame, but certainly not in the next 5 years.

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April 15, 2015, 02:58:28 PM
 #22795


http://qntra.net/2015/04/police-send-spyware-of-lawyer-for-whistle-blower/

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As always persons located in the United States are recommended to discount the possibility that "Law Enforcement" agencies are realistically constrained by the law.
rocks
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April 15, 2015, 04:29:27 PM
 #22796

if their algos keep a continually falling lid on prices and price perceptions such that the market never "turns up" materially, funded by unlimited supplies of fiat only, then it is an effective social/economic attack that will inevitably sideline bitcoin as a useful currency. The exchanges that facilitate manipulative pricing algorithms on their platforms are accomplices in this attack on bitcoin and imho should be treated as such.

The only thing to worry about is the spread of exchanges that do not allow users to withdraw real bitcoins on the blockchain. I haven't yet seen any of those.

This is exactly right.

As long as withdrawing is possible, then any manipulation is extremely limited since a manipulator first needs to acquire bitcoins before selling. Free exchange and the ability to withdraw force exchanges to not fractionally leverage their holdings (in essence naked short) and force exchanges to be relatively honest.

If free exchange and the right to withdraw into your own wallet is ever stopped, only then can an exchange or a government manipulate prices.

Again, FDR's 1933 default was exactly this. In 1932 anyone could walk into a bank and exchange $ for gold. In 1933 this free exchange was stopped and you were no longer able to "withdraw" your gold, which dollars represented. Once the ability to withdraw was blocked, the government was free to leverage to infinity.
cypherdoc
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April 15, 2015, 04:47:23 PM
 #22797

if their algos keep a continually falling lid on prices and price perceptions such that the market never "turns up" materially, funded by unlimited supplies of fiat only, then it is an effective social/economic attack that will inevitably sideline bitcoin as a useful currency. The exchanges that facilitate manipulative pricing algorithms on their platforms are accomplices in this attack on bitcoin and imho should be treated as such.
The only thing to worry about is the spread of exchanges that do not allow users to withdraw real bitcoins on the blockchain. I haven't yet seen any of those.

This is exactly right.

As long as withdrawing is possible, then any manipulation is extremely limited since a manipulator first needs to acquire bitcoins before selling. Free exchange and the ability to withdraw force exchanges to not fractionally leverage their holdings (in essence naked short) and force exchanges to be relatively honest.

If free exchange and the right to withdraw into your own wallet is ever stopped, only then can an exchange or a government manipulate prices.

Again, FDR's 1933 default was exactly this. In 1932 anyone could walk into a bank and exchange $ for gold. In 1933 this free exchange was stopped and you were no longer able to "withdraw" your gold, which dollars represented. Once the ability to withdraw was blocked, the government was free to leverage to infinity.

The corollary to this is "never leave any coin on exchanges!"
rocks
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April 15, 2015, 04:48:06 PM
 #22798

It's just a magic fun game hall of mirrors illusion/casino meant to keep the rubes playing the game and the man-on-street asleep to the underlying corrupt, inefficient dysfunctional financial/monetary system. It really is morphing into a modern version of the Soviet era command-economy with all financial control at the center; everything seems to grind along okay for quite a while but it is terribly inefficient economically, ripe for abuse at all levels and inevitably dies due to paralysing stagnation from gross misallocation of resources due to vibrant creative destruction being denied for decades.

It is again the gray hand of the State clamping down and strangling free markets to death, only this time in a slow painful manner. Look at what happened to bitcoin in USA since Fed/wall st. took an interest, it died.

Countries thrive when they allow creative destruction to continuously rip out inefficiencies and move forward. The modern era is largely the product of creative destruction being unleashed on the world as we tore down feudalism and build new dynamic systems that serviced the majority and not the 0.1%.

But creative destruction requires an independent, self-sufficient and capable people, who understand and have the fortitude to deal with uncertainty and the ups and yes downs of life.

American's for awhile now have chosen secure stability at the expense of creative destruction. This works for awhile, but eventually you end up with an inflexible & paralyzed system that misallocates resources more and more and where most become dependent on a centralized entity for support. At some point that static system breaks, and when it does it's never pretty.

This is what our grand-parents and their parents chose for us, they traded their inheritance of a free and open system for a safe and secure life for themselves, sacrificing us in the process.
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April 15, 2015, 04:53:07 PM
 #22799

Look at what happened to bitcoin in USA since Fed/wall st. took an interest, it died.
yes, i think they are interfering in the Bitcoin price mkt thru derivatives.  but i don't think it is sustainable and they most likely will get whiplashed to the tune of millions of losses when the mkt turns up.  we all should be keeping a close eye out for the first derivatives exchange (here's looking at you BFX) that does a force majeure that forces settlement in USD as opposed to BTC from the lack of available BTC needed to be covered.

if their algos keep a continually falling lid on prices and price perceptions such that the market never "turns up" materially, funded by unlimited supplies of fiat only, then it is an effective social/economic attack that will inevitably sideline bitcoin as a useful currency. The exchanges that facilitate manipulative pricing algorithms on their platforms are accomplices in this attack on bitcoin and imho should be treated as such.

NB: this has nothing to do with my support for implementing 2-way pegs in the protocol.

except that shorting requires borrowing existing BTC on the exchange of which there is only a theoretically limited supply.  this is where naked shorting potentially enters the picture and any exchange who allows this should be black balled and reported to the authorities for illegal practices hopefully to be shut down.  but of course, getting them to do anything is another story.

and yes, i think you're allowing the bear mkt to influence your perception that Bitcoin isn't working in the US.  Bitcoin cannot not work in an isolated geographical region imo.  it will route around that area until it forces capitulation of affected area.

I've been through at least 3 bitcoin bear markets (maybe 4?) so I don't think it is doom colouring my perception. Coinbase and Circle are nothing more than revamped PayPals built on top of bitcoin, not sure that BitPay is that much better. End user solutions that maximise the decentralisation benefits of bitcoin's digital cash are not even on the drawing board in USA because of absolute obsequiousness towards the Almighty State dictat there.

Inviting regulation when there was an opportunity for gaining the moral high-ground through legitimate civilian disobedience against the prevalent government push towards ubiquitous financial surveillance is a major error and missed opportunity. The bankster attack dogs will gladly regulate (and fraudulently trade for profit) bitcoin to its obscurity, just like they have done with gold.
When you have unlimited fiat, you can afford the fiat side slippage to drive down bitcoin price. I was going to write something similar today. It doesn't take naked shorting. Someone is just burning money and buying with a little slippage rather than driving up the price a lot. Some may think this is conspiracy paparanoia, but it is a logical tactic with this new type of asset. Bitcoins can be arbitraged before markets can react if they are using payment channels.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
cypherdoc
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April 15, 2015, 05:07:43 PM
 #22800

It's official. Ripple has shown its true colors:

http://cointelegraph.com/news/113968/ripple-will-require-verified-user-id-to-use-its-compliant-network#
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