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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1806916 times)
bucktotal
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March 23, 2015, 11:19:43 PM
 #22201

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this was one of the clearest things going on in early 2007 that caused me to put on a huge stock short in Oct 2007 starting with New Century:

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/countrywide-ceo-continues-unload-stock
   

nice catch. I'm picking that we could have a good night or two swapping similar stories over some bottles ...

edit: just noticed that there were still nothing in the comments after 8 years for that damning article about the countrywide CEO making off with $150 million before the company collapsed (and was bailed out?)

bank of america acquired them before bankrupty/bailouts. (then BoA got ~ 50 billion in bailouts?)
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rocks
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March 23, 2015, 11:41:03 PM
 #22202

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this was one of the clearest things going on in early 2007 that caused me to put on a huge stock short in Oct 2007 starting with New Century:

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/countrywide-ceo-continues-unload-stock
   

nice catch. I'm picking that we could have a good night or two swapping similar stories over some bottles ...

edit: just noticed that there were still nothing in the comments after 8 years for that damning article about the countrywide CEO making off with $150 million before the company collapsed (and was bailed out?)

Problem with insider sales is since a ton of compensation these days is in the form of options/stock, it is hard to tell what selling is due to foreseeing issues in their own business vs. standard selling for portfolio diversification. Insiders always sell more than they buy because of this compensation. (Tech insiders BTW have been selling hard into this latest tech bubble.)

Another problem is insiders are often wrong. The Enron CEO did not sell, and if my memory is right he was actively buying as the stock crashed, all the way to zero. He truly believed in the model and didn't understand how/why it failed.

IMHO the Enron CEO was not a criminal, just an idiot who didn't fully understand his own business. This differs from the Countrywide CEO who knew what was wrong, and milked the system.
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March 23, 2015, 11:52:52 PM
 #22203

Quote
this was one of the clearest things going on in early 2007 that caused me to put on a huge stock short in Oct 2007 starting with New Century:

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/countrywide-ceo-continues-unload-stock
   

nice catch. I'm picking that we could have a good night or two swapping similar stories over some bottles ...

edit: just noticed that there were still nothing in the comments after 8 years for that damning article about the countrywide CEO making off with $150 million before the company collapsed (and was bailed out?)

i spotted Angelo at a charity event i was attending last year.  he's short; and tanned  Wink
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March 24, 2015, 12:14:33 AM
 #22204

i'm not making the argument with tvbcof that gvt won't enforce unreasonable laws onto Bitcoin.  that probably is in Bitcoin's future.

what i'm arguing is their ability to actively taint tx's, either thru addresses or UTXO's.   that's not technically possible for them and also for those they demand to do so.  thus, their work will be cut out for them, assuming they need to actually track and enforce against those who disobey.

OK, got it.

For a modern day example, they are effectively banning the use of cash. So that everything is electronic and fully tracked in their financial system.
http://mises.org/blog/fighting-war-terror-banning-cash

In theory it should be impossible to enforce a cash ban, after all cash is similar to bitcoin it is not traceable and transactions are permanent, but in practice I am sure most businesses and individuals will voluntarily comply making the ban 99% effective.

I think what tvbcof is getting at is their ability to force major transaction points into their own system, will enable a government to effectively create a 'whitelist' bitcoin economy that is tracked an monitored. Yes, bitcoin will process coin transfers regardless of their whitelist / blacklist status, but what good is that if your employer, grocer, butcher, pizza man, electric, water & internet/phone utilities, etc. go along with the whitelist and only accept transactions from gov approved sources?

If this sounds far-fetched, well I'd challenge you to pay these firms with cash after the gov eventually forbids cash usage and demands electronic payments only. After that ban your cash would be useless, unless you can whitelist it into a bank account.

It's not technically possible to taint/track bitcoin, any more than it is not technically possible to ban cash transfers or gold transfers, yet these things can and still do happen.
79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX
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March 24, 2015, 12:26:52 AM
 #22205

If Gavin is worried about not being able to fork after the next potential burst why not apply Justus idea [1], too much coding with not enough time?
[1]https://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2015/02/09/economic-fallacies-and-the-block-size-limit-part-2-price-discovery/

Because who pays for that coding? And who can be sure that the proposal, even if completed and tested, will be adopted?

Andresen's position seems to be: (i) he takes responsibility for coding and testing a solution that as far as he can see takes care of the issue well into the future (ii) he does this with sufficient time for others to analyze it, so that, whatever else happens (iii) there is at least one safe fall-back option.

Can he guarantee his proposal is optimal? Of course not. It is just quite reassuring for it to be out.

smooth
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March 24, 2015, 12:30:27 AM
 #22206

If Gavin is worried about not being able to fork after the next potential burst why not apply Justus idea [1], too much coding with not enough time?
[1]https://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2015/02/09/economic-fallacies-and-the-block-size-limit-part-2-price-discovery/

Because who pays for that coding? And who can be sure that the proposal, even if completed and tested, will be adopted?

Or if adopted that it would have the desired effect.

I see it as likely collapsing into the same sort of economically-optimized-by-centralization system anyway.
cypherdoc
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March 24, 2015, 02:34:21 AM
 #22207

i'm not making the argument with tvbcof that gvt won't enforce unreasonable laws onto Bitcoin.  that probably is in Bitcoin's future.

what i'm arguing is their ability to actively taint tx's, either thru addresses or UTXO's.   that's not technically possible for them and also for those they demand to do so.  thus, their work will be cut out for them, assuming they need to actually track and enforce against those who disobey.

OK, got it.

For a modern day example, they are effectively banning the use of cash. So that everything is electronic and fully tracked in their financial system.
http://mises.org/blog/fighting-war-terror-banning-cash

In theory it should be impossible to enforce a cash ban, after all cash is similar to bitcoin it is not traceable and transactions are permanent, but in practice I am sure most businesses and individuals will voluntarily comply making the ban 99% effective.

I think what tvbcof is getting at is their ability to force major transaction points into their own system, will enable a government to effectively create a 'whitelist' bitcoin economy that is tracked an monitored. Yes, bitcoin will process coin transfers regardless of their whitelist / blacklist status, but what good is that if your employer, grocer, butcher, pizza man, electric, water & internet/phone utilities, etc. go along with the whitelist and only accept transactions from gov approved sources?

If this sounds far-fetched, well I'd challenge you to pay these firms with cash after the gov eventually forbids cash usage and demands electronic payments only. After that ban your cash would be useless, unless you can whitelist it into a bank account.

It's not technically possible to taint/track bitcoin, any more than it is not technically possible to ban cash transfers or gold transfers, yet these things can and still do happen.

on balance, i think it's too late to make Bitcoin illegal or even put sharp restrictions on it here in the US.  

mainly b/c it's global and their are too many large, legitimate US investors involved already.  think NYSE, NASDAQ, multiple hedge funds, banks, VC funds, and numerous financial luminaries and Wall St folk.  just about the entire Silicon Valley wants it as fintech has been irrationally and unfairly excluded from financial innovation forever.  this is their time.  Wall St has begun to sense the inevitability and are climbing aboard.  there are plenty of overt data points and pending signs.
marcus_of_augustus
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March 24, 2015, 03:05:23 AM
 #22208

http://www.gizmag.com/cannae-reactionless-drive-space-propulsion/33210/

cypherdoc
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March 24, 2015, 03:18:08 AM
 #22209


an armada of BitSats encircling the Earth.
tvbcof
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March 24, 2015, 03:25:33 AM
 #22210


on balance, i think it's too late to make Bitcoin illegal or even put sharp restrictions on it here in the US.  

mainly b/c it's global and their are too many large, legitimate US investors involved already.  think NYSE, NASDAQ, multiple hedge funds, banks, VC funds, and numerous financial luminaries and Wall St folk.  just about the entire Silicon Valley wants it as fintech has been irrationally and unfairly excluded from financial innovation forever.  this is their time.  Wall St has begun to sense the inevitability and are climbing aboard.  there are plenty of overt data points and pending signs.

I'm sure glad that there are so few investors that are doing well with the existing fiat system otherwise they might have an interest in making sure Bitcoin did not threaten them.

'on balance', I'm pretty sure that most of these 'investors' want more than anything to see a system which will empower the plebs and give them the tools needed to break out of debt slavery and exploitation by...um...


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March 24, 2015, 03:45:19 AM
 #22211


and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

cypherdoc
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March 24, 2015, 03:52:44 AM
 #22212


and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

talk about robotics.  these guys are amazing.  maybe they have a future in asteroid mining:

http://geekologie.com/2013/10/boston-dynamics-humanoid-atlas-robot-tac.php
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March 24, 2015, 04:04:13 AM
 #22213


and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

Because everyone knows that asteroids, comets, planetoids, moons, etc are primarily composed of gold while containing significant fractions of silver, platinum, and other valuable rare-earth metals as well.  I mean, if these elements are rare here on earth they must be somewhere else instead.  Logic 101.

If I were an investor, it might occur to me that a guy cannot win for loosing here.  That is to say, if one came back with the Nostromo, Rolls-Royce N66 Cyclone thrust engines straining against the mass of all of the gold, and the promise of doing it again and again, the value of gold would likely fall dramatically thus making the investment a loser.  And if the chief warrant officer blew the ship up to try to kill an alien, the results for my bottom line would be even more discouraging.


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March 24, 2015, 04:21:03 AM
 #22214

We will need precious & rare metals for industrial purposes, not to store value.

We have a different solution for that. Get on with the program, b.
tvbcof
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March 24, 2015, 04:26:16 AM
 #22215

We will need precious & rare metals for industrial purposes, not to store value.

We have a different solution for that. Get on with the program, b.

Industrial purposes like what?  Niobium hyper-drive magnets?  Would not the same basic economic principles apply?


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March 24, 2015, 04:26:55 AM
 #22216


and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

Because everyone knows that asteroids, comets, planetoids, moons, etc are primarily composed of gold while containing significant fractions of silver, platinum, and other valuable rare-earth metals as well.  I mean, if these elements are rare here on earth they must be somewhere else instead.  Logic 101.


... you need to do some more homework instead of demonstrating your ignorance in something outside your field?

Hint: the extreme, and comparatively "unusual" press., temp. history of asteroids (orbiting a star in a vacuum) means indeed they sometimes have pure deposits (i.e. read come and pick me up pure) plat. group metals and other metals in quantities quite uncommon in the Earth's crust, everything else has boiled or sublimated away. What were you expecting Hawaiian volcanic loam? Or Texan alluvial plains? Sheesh. Troll 101.

tvbcof
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March 24, 2015, 04:35:42 AM
 #22217


and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

Because everyone knows that asteroids, comets, planetoids, moons, etc are primarily composed of gold while containing significant fractions of silver, platinum, and other valuable rare-earth metals as well.  I mean, if these elements are rare here on earth they must be somewhere else instead.  Logic 101.


... you need to do some more homework instead of demonstrating your ignorance in something outside your field?

Hint: the extreme, and comparatively "unusual" press., temp. history of asteroids (orbiting a star in a vacuum) means indeed they sometimes have pure deposits (i.e. read come and pick me up pure) plat. group metals and other metals in quantities quite uncommon in the Earth's crust, everything else has boiled or sublimated away. What were you expecting Hawaiian volcanic loam? Or Texan alluvial plains? Sheesh. Troll 101.

Thanks for the field report Dr. Spock.


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March 24, 2015, 04:42:03 AM
 #22218


and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

Because everyone knows that asteroids, comets, planetoids, moons, etc are primarily composed of gold while containing significant fractions of silver, platinum, and other valuable rare-earth metals as well.  I mean, if these elements are rare here on earth they must be somewhere else instead.  Logic 101.


... you need to do some more homework instead of demonstrating your ignorance in something outside your field?

Hint: the extreme, and comparatively "unusual" press., temp. history of asteroids (orbiting a star in a vacuum) means indeed they sometimes have pure deposits (i.e. read come and pick me up pure) plat. group metals and other metals in quantities quite uncommon in the Earth's crust, everything else has boiled or sublimated away. What were you expecting Hawaiian volcanic loam? Or Texan alluvial plains? Sheesh. Troll 101.
Thanks for the field report Dr. Spock.

You're welcome cowpoke Earthling.  Wink

justusranvier
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March 24, 2015, 04:49:26 AM
 #22219

Too soon to celebrate.

https://www.reddit.com/r/engineering/comments/2ckcb3/wishful_thinking_confirmation_bias_and_the_emdrive/

marcus_of_augustus
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March 24, 2015, 04:54:19 AM
 #22220


mmm, I know but it bears some watching, the reactions are always informative and the lulz are worth it.

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