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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2028278 times)
Erdogan
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March 18, 2015, 02:22:07 AM
 #22041

If a fork is considerably different from classic bitcoin, it will probably fail because it is not better money, but worse.

If a fork is almost exactly like bitcoin, it will also fail, this is demonstrated by the natural forks of the blockchain that comes into being because two new blocks are found simultaneusly.

Conclusion: The danger of forks is small.

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Zangelbert Bingledack
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March 18, 2015, 02:36:51 AM
 #22042

that strategy of buying both chains means they will lose money at some level when the dominant chain eventually wins.

I don't see any real issue of new investors "buying both chains" during a fork, because it should be pretty much over in minutes in the on-exchange arbitrage situation I described above. It would only affect those people who happened to make the decision to start investing in Bitcoin during those few minutes and couldn't wait.

Now in the unlikely future event of a real schism with two persistent forks, it doesn't affect current investors. They can sit tight and whatever happens their money is safe. For new investors of course they have to make a choice (or hedge between them), but that is natural given there was a real schism in the economic majority, which suggests there were good reasons for it. I don't think hardly anyone is going to invest in a smallblock fork versus a reasonably larger block fork, for example. If we assume a major schism where investors support both, which seems very unlikely, then there was probably a good reason for it.
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March 18, 2015, 02:43:36 AM
 #22043

If a fork is considerably different from classic bitcoin, it will probably fail because it is not better money, but worse.

If a fork is almost exactly like bitcoin, it will also fail, this is demonstrated by the natural forks of the blockchain that comes into being because two new blocks are found simultaneusly.

Conclusion: The danger of forks is small.

Yes, too different in features and Bitcoin enthusiasts will avoid it because they like Bitcoin's features; too similar and the fragmentation isn't worth it (more accurately, selling BTC Classic for BTC New is not a good investment, since everyone will agree the fragmentation isn't worth it, so the opposite happens, the speedy make money from the few fools, and holders remain even and safely oblivious).
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March 18, 2015, 02:51:35 AM
 #22044

does anyone know where to buy the legit physical gold with the serial # etc.

or you guys just go to the bank and ask you`d like to convert this from your dollars and they give you a brick?
Im wirking on this site u can buy gold or silver http://cryptosmith.info

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March 18, 2015, 02:54:29 AM
 #22045

If a fork is almost exactly like bitcoin, it will also fail, this is demonstrated by the natural forks of the blockchain that comes into being because two new blocks are found simultaneusly.

Furthermore the 2000 or so artificial forks that have been created as (sometimes slightly modified) Bitcoin-clone altcoins. Total capitalization is at most 5% (I doubt that number), which makes the average capitalization of one of these forks 0.0025% or less.

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March 18, 2015, 03:00:57 AM
 #22046

why the hell do we ever invite Chris Larson to Bitcoin conferences?:

http://coinfire.io/2015/03/16/ripple-ceo-says-bitcoin-as-currency-unneeded-to-california-assembly/

Ripple Labs is the worse kind of parasite, always sticking their nose into everything Bitcoin-related in an attempt to take advantage of (and amplify) misunderstandings. When they show up at Bitcoin conferences and especially government hearings with their schtick it's pretty offputting, makes me think of this clip Grin

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March 18, 2015, 03:44:49 AM
 #22047

Now in the unlikely future event of a real schism with two persistent forks, it doesn't affect current investors. They can sit tight and whatever happens their money is safe. For new investors of course they have to make a choice (or hedge between them), but that is natural given there was a real schism in the economic majority, which suggests there were good reasons for it. I don't think hardly anyone is going to invest in a smallblock fork versus a reasonably larger block fork, for example. If we assume a major schism where investors support both, which seems very unlikely, then there was probably a good reason for it.

This is my argument about say increasing the block size. There seems to be deep division about whether this is a good idea or at least whether some of the specific proposals of how to do it are a good idea.

Maybe you are right and trading would resolve the issue quickly if people had to put their money where their mouth is rather than just make a lot of noise over it. But if not, then exchanges, wallets, payment processors, etc. could be set up to deal in hedged baskets which consist of one of each coin traded together. Those who did not want to bet on one or the other could just use the basket until the market sorted out the question one way or another.

In no way is this a suggestion to simply let the chain fork as much and as often as anyone wants without the necessary infrastructure in place at both the exchange and wallet level to deal with it in a non-disruptive manner.


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March 18, 2015, 03:45:58 AM
 #22048

Fair point. It may be that an effort at a better developed proposal would pay off in terms of consensus to implement it. I'm not sure about that given the conflicting and increasingly entrenched interests, but it's possible for sure.

My guess is once rubber hits road, when blocks are actually filling up and fees start to get bid up, it will be an easy choice. Same with full node incentives: once there start to be issues with large block propagation, miners will start to work out payment agreements with nodes, say, and it will all seem obvious in hindsight.
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March 18, 2015, 04:02:40 AM
 #22049

Now in the unlikely future event of a real schism with two persistent forks, it doesn't affect current investors. They can sit tight and whatever happens their money is safe. For new investors of course they have to make a choice (or hedge between them), but that is natural given there was a real schism in the economic majority, which suggests there were good reasons for it. I don't think hardly anyone is going to invest in a smallblock fork versus a reasonably larger block fork, for example. If we assume a major schism where investors support both, which seems very unlikely, then there was probably a good reason for it.

This is my argument about say increasing the block size. There seems to be deep division about whether this is a good  idea or at least whether some of the specific proposals of how to do it are a good idea.

Maybe you are right and trading would resolve the issue quickly if people had to put their money where their mouth is rather than just make a lot of noise over it. But if not, then exchanges, wallets, payment processors, etc. could be set up to deal in hedged baskets which consist of one of each coin traded together. Those who did not want to bet on one or the other could just use the basket until the market sorted out the question one way or another.

I no way is this a suggestion to simply let the chain fork as much and as often as anyone wants without the necessary infrastructure in place at both the exchange and wallet level to deal with it in a non-disruptive manner.

This suggests a kind of graduated strategy for forking. As opposed to the old strategy of...

1) Musing on fork possibilities
2) Debate of concrete proposals
3) Consensus

...there is a new more gradual strategy:

1) Musing on fork possibilities
2) Debate of concrete proposals
3) Rough consensus
4) Market arbitrage

The second strategy seems especially useful when getting full consensus is hard or is taking too long and time is of the essence. If blocks are filling up and transactions are getting delayed, some larger-capacity altcoin is leeching market share away by the day, and the media is having a field day, I imagine getting consensus to raise max_blocksize gets much easier. But in those cases where a straw poll isn't enough, putting it to a "market vote" is the final test.

It's only appropriate when every other means of assessing consensus leaves it indeterminate which proposal will win.
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March 18, 2015, 07:23:17 AM
 #22050

cool chart, from http://pricedingold.com:



(to me, it says to stay the course in btc)
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March 18, 2015, 10:20:17 AM
 #22051

cool chart, from http://pricedingold.com:



(to me, it says to stay the course in btc)

Thank you.

And furthermore, coming from one of my long term nemeses!
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March 18, 2015, 10:29:58 AM
 #22052

cool chart, from http://pricedingold.com:



(to me, it says to stay the course in btc)

That graph looks much the same as btcusd. Treat 2013 as a bad dream (goxmare) and everything is right on schedule.
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March 18, 2015, 10:51:59 AM
 #22053

Dow futures down another -58.

stock bulls need to be concerned.
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March 18, 2015, 03:45:11 PM
 #22054

Dow futures down another -58.

stock bulls need to be concerned.

Lol then you go quiet when it makes new highs

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March 18, 2015, 04:11:38 PM
 #22055

Dow futures down another -58.

stock bulls need to be concerned.

Lol then you go quiet when it makes new highs

yep, and your hubris is exactly what we need to form tops.
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March 18, 2015, 07:38:06 PM
 #22056

Except for the fact that this is not looking like a top. Transports are overperforming and on their way to end that divergence upon which you place so much importance (nevermind that there was one such divergence in place for the whole 2012).

The trend, it bears repeating, is UP!
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March 18, 2015, 09:22:51 PM
 #22057

US dollar flash crash.  Down 5%+ in a few hours.  I thought bitcoin was the only volatile currency?

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
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March 18, 2015, 09:35:55 PM
 #22058

US dollar flash crash.  Down 5%+ in a few hours.  I thought bitcoin was the only volatile currency?

Regardless, not fun to see BTC blood bath right now. 

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March 18, 2015, 09:47:41 PM
 #22059

US dollar flash crash.  Down 5%+ in a few hours.  I thought bitcoin was the only volatile currency?

Regardless, not fun to see BTC blood bath right now. 

It's part of growing up. Nothing spectacular if you're not day trading.

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March 19, 2015, 01:56:21 AM
 #22060

Dow futures down another -58.

stock bulls need to be concerned.

Lol then you go quiet when it makes new highs

yep, and your hubris is exactly what we need to form tops.
Nope i didnt form an oppinion based on your post just commenting on the one you formed..alas you were were a good contrarian again.. Dow ends up 200... Were headed way up

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