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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1934801 times)
cypherdoc
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March 26, 2015, 10:48:45 PM
 #22281

Dearest NLC,

Quote
It's "inseparable from bitcoin" only according to pyramid schemers like you.

Bitcoiners: "So we have this blockchain thing, it's a "DECENTRALISED" distributed ledger and it has potential but bitcoin is a necessary component, you are forced to adopt it if you want the blockchain"

Everybody else: "Ok, but we don't need this bitcoin currency "I don't think anyone needs this bitcoin currency", only drug dealers, paranoid libertards, scammers and ponzi speculators do"

Bitcoiners: "We don't care. You want the blockchain? You need to adopt bitcoin"

Everybody else: "Alright, then we will create a blockchain/CONSENSUS/distributed ledger thing that doesn't force people to adopt, use, and give a high value to a new currency they don't need. If it's a little CENTRALIZED it's not a problem FOR ME, cuz I THINK decentralization is for libertards."

Bitcoiners: "You can't. It's impossible™"

Everybody else:
http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/01/22/blockchain-things-bot-not-internet-things/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkYVc1YsGCc


More coming soon.


Avoid being disingenuous by omitting relevant information.

Stop conflating your opinion with fact.

that post just shows he doesn't understand the first thing about Bitcoin and is only here to troll.
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cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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March 27, 2015, 11:12:20 AM
 #22282

People are looking at the prices on exchanges that will soon be obsolete.  When the next jump happens, the exchanges will be bypassed in favor of Wall Street. Billions will be traded and amateur exchanges will melt. We won't need to check price websites. They will be quoting Winkdex.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
hdbuck
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March 27, 2015, 12:23:49 PM
 #22283

People are looking at the prices on exchanges that will soon be obsolete.  When the next jump happens, the exchanges will be bypassed in favor of Wall Street. Billions will be traded and amateur exchanges will melt. We won't need to check price websites. They will be quoting Winkdex.

Imho there is no jump to be expected until next halving. Everything else happening is just noise.

Ps: screw wall street!
NotHatinJustTrollin
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March 27, 2015, 12:38:27 PM
 #22284

People are looking at the prices on exchanges that will soon be obsolete.  When the next jump happens, the exchanges will be bypassed in favor of Wall Street. Billions will be traded and amateur exchanges will melt. We won't need to check price websites. They will be quoting Winkdex.
Cool story bro.
I have been hearing this "Wall Street is coming" vague fantasy since the beginning of 2014.
I thought they were supposed to come (for real this time) with Coinbase regulated™ exchange. Where are they? In the 800k in bids there?

Oh yes, I forgot they are secretly crashing the price to accumulate  Cheesy




Hint: Opening up a market where they could get in doesn't mean they will  Cheesy

     Cheesy
   Cheesy Cheesy
 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Zangelbert Bingledack
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March 27, 2015, 02:46:20 PM
 #22285

Imho there is no jump to be expected until next halving. Everything else happening is just noise.

I've never seen the halving-drives-bubbles argument fully explained. It seems to me that since we are talking about CCMF price jumps of at least tenfold, and the inflation rate is nowhere near that, then either most bitcoins are immovable or the halving isn't in fact that important.

For example, if we have an inflation rate of 10% per year but investment increases tenfold during the year, then we still get roughly a 9x increase in price. Now if half the coins are immovable, either because they are lost or because for some reason the holders refuse to cash any out, then the effective inflation rate looks more like 20%. If 3/4 of the coins are immobile, then 40%. And if investment only increases by say 4x per year, then I think that's only like a 2.5x price increase during the non-halving years. But 4x vs. 2.5x is still not that much of a difference.

If the halving does make a huge difference, I would have to conclude that it's because few bitcoins actually make it to market for whatever reason. Perhaps it's the Bitcoin Baron's Paradox: "After the first few million dollars, why cash out any more? Fiat currency is a downright dangerous place to park your money!" (It could get frozen, banks could fail, dollar could collapse, etc. Gold has jurisdictional risks. Bitcoin is the ideal place for savings, so even if the price rises there is no reason to cash out very much more.)
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March 27, 2015, 02:52:04 PM
 #22286

If the halving does make a huge difference, I would have to conclude that it's because few bitcoins make it to market for whatever reason. Perhaps it's the Bitcoin Baron's Paradox: "After the first few million dollars, why cash out any more? Fiat currency is a downright dangerous place to park your money, it could get frozen, banks could fail, dollar could collapse, etc. Gold has jurisdictional risks. Bitcoin is the ideal place for savings, so even if the price rises there is no reason to cash out significantly more."
Bitcoin adoption is a form of emigration.

Prediction models whose accuracy depends on a long term stable equilibrium between Bitcoin and national currencies are wrong.
Zangelbert Bingledack
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March 27, 2015, 03:01:00 PM
 #22287

Bitcoin adoption is a form of emigration.

Prediction models whose accuracy depends on a long term stable equilibrium between Bitcoin and national currencies are wrong.

I guess we can say that either the halvings do make a huge difference and emigration into Bitcoin is already happening to a substantial degree, presumably usually for the practical reasons I mentioned, or the halvings don't make a huge difference and emigration isn't really happening but instead people are mostly optimizing for ending up with the most fiat. If the next halving triggers another moonshoot then we'll have additional confirmation that emigration is a much bigger factor than merely people playing for fiat profit.

I certainly don't expect a long-term stable equilibrium: if Bitcoin succeeds, fiat has nowhere to go but zero. However, I'm surprised that the emigration dynamic could already be taking hold to the extent that halvings would make such an enormous difference.

Do you think the emigration dynamic is being driven by the reasons I mentioned (Bitcoin Baron's Paradox / Bitcoin is just a safer, wiser, more flexible and reliable place to keep your nest egg), or more by ideology, or something else?
hdbuck
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March 27, 2015, 03:29:15 PM
 #22288

Imho there is no jump to be expected until next halving. Everything else happening is just noise.

I've never seen the halving-drives-bubbles argument fully explained. It seems to me that since we are talking about CCMF price jumps of at least tenfold, and the inflation rate is nowhere near that, then either most bitcoins are immovable or the halving isn't in fact that important.

For example, if we have an inflation rate of 10% per year but investment increases tenfold during the year, then we still get roughly a 9x increase in price. Now if half the coins are immovable, either because they are lost or because for some reason the holders refuse to cash any out, then the effective inflation rate looks more like 20%. If 3/4 of the coins are immobile, then 40%. And if investment only increases by say 4x per year, then I think that's only like a 2.5x price increase during the non-halving years. But 4x vs. 2.5x is still not that much of a difference.

If the halving does make a huge difference, I would have to conclude that it's because few bitcoins actually make it to market for whatever reason. Perhaps it's the Bitcoin Baron's Paradox: "After the first few million dollars, why cash out any more? Fiat currency is a downright dangerous place to park your money!" (It could get frozen, banks could fail, dollar could collapse, etc. Gold has jurisdictional risks. Bitcoin is the ideal place for savings, so even if the price rises there is no reason to cash out very much more.)

Im not quite sure I have the linguistics to fully explain my thoughts on this halving matter but i'll try..

So I understand Bitcoin's price as an equilibrium between the costs of the network to be operational (& secure) and pure speculation, which mostly derive from news (whether about Gox or Wall Street, which i rather call noise anyway).

However, regarding huge variations, which also happens quickly, i figured the speculation (news) part lags and tend to follow the price. Ergo, during last bubble, one might have had the illusion that the 'senate hearing' caused the ATH, but it was underway before that if you look closely.

I know that there has been more 'bubbles' than halvings since 2009, but i wouldnt weight equally the 2$ - 30$ - 200$ vs the 1200$ bubble.
For the first three, speculation and a bit of push from the early investors probably did the trick.
The last one OTOH was driven by more than simple speculation and MK's willy bot. The goodwill to sustain such skyrocketing direction and the inflow of money necessary was due, in my sense, to the simple anticipation of half less bitcoins hitting the market.

So for now, bitcoin monetary system is inflatory since ~5k BTC are mined everyday. Im not arguing where they end up, sold or hold, im just stating a fact, but i know people would disagree b/c of the 21M cap.
But whatever, economically, the effect is that we are in an inflatory system - for now. Hence, down we go.

However this inflation will be disturbed by halvings, making bitcoins less and less abundant. This is a deflationary mechanism. Hence, up we go.

The beauty of halving to me is that it encompasses both basic but huge economical and speculation effects. You just cant fight it.

So better watch out when the block reward will be halved to 12,5BTC Wink

Anyhow thats just my 2cent on the matter..


If the halving does make a huge difference, I would have to conclude that it's because few bitcoins make it to market for whatever reason. Perhaps it's the Bitcoin Baron's Paradox: "After the first few million dollars, why cash out any more? Fiat currency is a downright dangerous place to park your money, it could get frozen, banks could fail, dollar could collapse, etc. Gold has jurisdictional risks. Bitcoin is the ideal place for savings, so even if the price rises there is no reason to cash out significantly more."
Bitcoin adoption is a form of emigration.

Prediction models whose accuracy depends on a long term stable equilibrium between Bitcoin and national currencies are wrong.

Bitcoin is a safe haven. People emigrating shouldnt if they only aim at buying frappucinos. It a wonderful and even more powerful tool to break free from financial oppression - or at least part of, cuz you still live in The SystemTM ya know..

Anyhow true that there wont be a stable equilibrium between Bitcoin and national currency debt.
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March 27, 2015, 03:29:55 PM
 #22289


Thank you
molecular
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March 27, 2015, 09:34:06 PM
 #22290

Imho there is no jump to be expected until next halving. Everything else happening is just noise.

I've never seen the halving-drives-bubbles argument fully explained. It seems to me that since we are talking about CCMF price jumps of at least tenfold, and the inflation rate is nowhere near that, then either most bitcoins are immovable or the halving isn't in fact that important.

For example, if we have an inflation rate of 10% per year but investment increases tenfold during the year, then we still get roughly a 9x increase in price. Now if half the coins are immovable, either because they are lost or because for some reason the holders refuse to cash any out, then the effective inflation rate looks more like 20%. If 3/4 of the coins are immobile, then 40%. And if investment only increases by say 4x per year, then I think that's only like a 2.5x price increase during the non-halving years. But 4x vs. 2.5x is still not that much of a difference.

If the halving does make a huge difference, I would have to conclude that it's because few bitcoins actually make it to market for whatever reason. Perhaps it's the Bitcoin Baron's Paradox: "After the first few million dollars, why cash out any more? Fiat currency is a downright dangerous place to park your money!" (It could get frozen, banks could fail, dollar could collapse, etc. Gold has jurisdictional risks. Bitcoin is the ideal place for savings, so even if the price rises there is no reason to cash out very much more.)

I believe the halfing will have strong impact and I think you answered your own question (why?) at least partly: a lot of coins are immobile.

You're looking at inflation rate. Let me offer another way to look at this:

(I'm assuming miners are selling 100% of mined coins for simplicity, the argument works with less)

3600 BTC are mined each day. At current market price that's $900,000 worth. These BTC are being bought every day by demand. Now this selling pressure halves and the demand stays the same. Surely what will happen is the price will rise. In case of constant demand of $900k/day it should rise to 500 USD/BTC (merely double). But neither supply nor demand stay constant in such a scenario: supply is likely to decrease, because miners get to hoard more and most importantly demand will rise. Yes, I know, economic theory says demand should drop with a higher price,... but that's forgetting human psychology and the hype a 100% price rise will cause. In other words: the halving (reduction of supply) itself is just the ignition, the real momentum comes from increase of demand.

It worked last time, I think the Q1 2013 rally was caused (or at least substantially contributed to) by the halfing.

Does this make sense at all or is it wishful thinking?

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
cypherdoc
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March 27, 2015, 10:20:52 PM
 #22291

Imho there is no jump to be expected until next halving. Everything else happening is just noise.

I've never seen the halving-drives-bubbles argument fully explained. It seems to me that since we are talking about CCMF price jumps of at least tenfold, and the inflation rate is nowhere near that, then either most bitcoins are immovable or the halving isn't in fact that important.

For example, if we have an inflation rate of 10% per year but investment increases tenfold during the year, then we still get roughly a 9x increase in price. Now if half the coins are immovable, either because they are lost or because for some reason the holders refuse to cash any out, then the effective inflation rate looks more like 20%. If 3/4 of the coins are immobile, then 40%. And if investment only increases by say 4x per year, then I think that's only like a 2.5x price increase during the non-halving years. But 4x vs. 2.5x is still not that much of a difference.

If the halving does make a huge difference, I would have to conclude that it's because few bitcoins actually make it to market for whatever reason. Perhaps it's the Bitcoin Baron's Paradox: "After the first few million dollars, why cash out any more? Fiat currency is a downright dangerous place to park your money!" (It could get frozen, banks could fail, dollar could collapse, etc. Gold has jurisdictional risks. Bitcoin is the ideal place for savings, so even if the price rises there is no reason to cash out very much more.)

I believe the halfing will have strong impact and I think you answered your own question (why?) at least partly: a lot of coins are immobile.

You're looking at inflation rate. Let me offer another way to look at this:

(I'm assuming miners are selling 100% of mined coins for simplicity, the argument works with less)

3600 BTC are mined each day. At current market price that's $900,000 worth. These BTC are being bought every day by demand. Now this selling pressure halves and the demand stays the same. Surely what will happen is the price will rise. In case of constant demand of $900k/day it should rise to 500 USD/BTC (merely double). But neither supply nor demand stay constant in such a scenario: supply is likely to decrease, because miners get to hoard more and most importantly demand will rise. Yes, I know, economic theory says demand should drop with a higher price,... but that's forgetting human psychology and the hype a 100% price rise will cause. In other words: the halving (reduction of supply) itself is just the ignition, the real momentum comes from increase decrease of supply.

It worked last time, I think the Q1 2013 rally was caused (or at least substantially contributed to) by the halfing.

Does this make sense at all or is it wishful thinking?

Up
hdbuck
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March 27, 2015, 10:33:31 PM
 #22292

its all about the hoarding anyway:


http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/end-the-fed-hoard-bitcoins/

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=144911.0
cypherdoc
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March 27, 2015, 11:38:43 PM
 #22293

the desperation is palpable.  almost as bad as NJHJT:

The Bitcoin Blockchain Could Be Used to Spread Malware, INTERPOL Says

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/the-bitcoin-blockchain-could-be-used-to-spread-malware-interpol-says?utm_source=mbtwitter
BlindMayorBitcorn
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March 27, 2015, 11:46:16 PM
 #22294

This thread should have an indexIbex.

Anybody know around what page you all were discussing the topic of transaction fees increasing as coinbase rewards decrease?



Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
NotHatinJustTrollin
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March 27, 2015, 11:57:11 PM
 #22295

This thread should have an index.

Anybody know around what page you all were discussing the topic of transaction fees increasing as coinbase rewards are decreasing?
Index:

Pages 1-100: Delusions

Pages 101-300: Fiat sucks

Pages 301-500: Gold sucks too

Pages 501-700: The State and bankers are evil, Bitcoin whales* will save the world

Pages 701-1119: Moar delusions






*:





http://www.deepdotweb.com/2015/03/27/breaking-sheep-marketplace-owner-arrested/
hdbuck
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March 28, 2015, 12:12:11 AM
 #22296

the Tomas dude is pretty hilarious tho. Grin
BlindMayorBitcorn
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March 28, 2015, 12:13:48 AM
 #22297

the Tomas dude is pretty hilarious tho. Grin

This is why we need decentralized autonomous organizations. I guess Huh

Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
hdbuck
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March 28, 2015, 12:19:26 AM
 #22298

the Tomas dude is pretty hilarious tho. Grin

This is why we need decentralized autonomous organizations. I guess Huh

no, we need boobies.

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March 28, 2015, 12:20:54 AM
 #22299

LOL...

I haet ugaise. Srsly.

Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
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March 28, 2015, 02:25:25 AM
 #22300

Here's some thoughts about how long a long-term investor should expect to HODL, all fairly obvious.  

I look at matters from the perspective of BTC buyers, excluding from consideration early individual miners. The possibility to mint your own money was an anomaly, never to be repeated, perhaps comparable only to striking easily extractable gold.

1. At present block height (~350k), BTC inflation rate is at about 10%/year.  From standard monetary perspective this is untenably high. From the perspective of bitcoin, this is a necessary evil, as a condition for network effect to take hold is for the coin to be distributed as widely as possible, which requires high emission.

2. Long-term investors should thus expect to hold not just until the next halving (~block 420k, inflation < 5%, 2016), but the one after that (~block 630k, inflation < 3%, 2021). By then the block reward will be 6.25 BTC and total mining output 900 BTC/day.

3. The reward for early investors is to have had to wait for only one halving period for large returns (those who waited significantly less before cashing out big simply got lucky). Their risk was to lose all. By this point, that risk has diminished vastly, but expected waiting time for realizing large returns has increased accordingly.

4.  At the time of the first halving, price did not immediately increase. With demand slowly rising, the slack in supply was initially met from early accumulators partially cashing out. But eventually price had to pick up. We should expect a similar dynamic next time around.

5. By the same basic supply/demand considerations, price would pick up faster if adoption rate increased. This is indeed expected: if things continue on track, the network effect will kick in and we will hit the high slope section of the adoption S-curve. However, I see no immediate reason to suppose that this will happen before that third halving (ca. 2021).

6. Thus HODLers who have yet to cash out may keep watching news/price daily to satisfy their addiction, but should plan on waiting around five years before expecting to reap large rewards (e.g., >10x their DCA).



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