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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2013893 times)
hdbuck
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March 22, 2015, 02:33:45 PM
 #22101

Gold up, Bitcoin down in the last few days, folks.
Although in the grand scheme of things it is all versus the US dollar (the king). I don't think Bitcoin and gold are correlated in any direct way.


i think in the grand scheme vs the dollar they are correlated - as safe havens, store of value..
one digital, and one material - two faces of the same coin.
and both subjects to fiat-ers manipulations.
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March 22, 2015, 04:21:16 PM
 #22102

JR,

what's up with Odom leaving Monetas?
I only know one side of the story right now, so I can't really say.

Why aren't more people talking about this? OT was supposed to be huge for Bitcoin, it was Chris' baby for a long time now...
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March 22, 2015, 04:41:55 PM
 #22103

A very nice article about bitcoin and gold virtues if (when?) the dollar collapses:

When the Dollar Collapses, which is better Money, Gold or Bitcoin?
Was satoshis intent to allow for a gold backed bitcoin

No

Quote
since there is a reason he chose 21 million units based on amount of gold oz estimated that will be mined?

and no.



I might be wrong, but thought there was some programming reason why there are 100 million sats in a bitcoin. That might also be why he chose 21 million total coins.
uki
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March 22, 2015, 04:49:24 PM
 #22104

Gold up, Bitcoin down in the last few days, folks.
Although in the grand scheme of things it is all versus the US dollar (the king). I don't think Bitcoin and gold are correlated in any direct way.


i think in the grand scheme vs the dollar they are correlated - as safe havens, store of value..
one digital, and one material - two faces of the same coin.
and both subjects to fiat-ers manipulations.
that is true, although I think still not that much noticeable for Bitcoin due to relatively small market cap, as it is for gold.
Once Bitcoin becomes more widely spread (more applications) I expect similar "trends" as for gold, in function of US dollar.

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cypherdoc
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March 22, 2015, 05:17:13 PM
 #22105

Gold up, Bitcoin down in the last few days, folks.
Although in the grand scheme of things it is all versus the US dollar (the king). I don't think Bitcoin and gold are correlated in any direct way.


weren't you the one with the great log chart of BTC/XAU showing a clear uptrend?
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March 22, 2015, 05:21:12 PM
 #22106

A very nice article about bitcoin and gold virtues if (when?) the dollar collapses:

When the Dollar Collapses, which is better Money, Gold or Bitcoin?
Was satoshis intent to allow for a gold backed bitcoin

No

Quote
since there is a reason he chose 21 million units based on amount of gold oz estimated that will be mined?

and no.


Yes

"This decreasing-supply algorithm was chosen because it approximates the rate at which commodities like gold are mined."

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

If true then could be yes to first question too because many ppl would feel "safe" with their money in bitcoin backed by gold...ofcourse benefiting the early adopters the most..

The perception that bitcoin is not backed by anything would change and the negative nancies would have nothing else to fight with.. That is when we distribute.

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cypherdoc
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March 22, 2015, 05:32:18 PM
 #22107


Litecoin fading != "there will only be one" is starting to catch on

All the recent attention to the dangers of BTC's lack of privacy and fungibility have only highlighted the need for coins that offer those features.

Radical transparency certainly has its uses in certain places.  But so does radical opacity.

Hence today's brouhaha among the redditurds:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2zrdxz/withdrawals_halted_as_stolen_evolution_coins_make/

That's just a bunch of FUD. Tainting coins has not worked once in Bitcoins history.

You may define down, or otherwise minimize, as rigorously and deflectively as you like the term 'tainting.'

smooth and I prefer the functional definition, elucidated via praxis.

IE, if you wish to move your coins, but are prevented from doing so by consequence of some third parties' ostensible interest in them rather than technical obstacles, they are by the common understanding 'tainted.'

The nightmare scenario for you Old Whales is a whitelist, where by default movement of all non-permitted coins is forbidden.

Did you read the linked reddit discussion?  Peter Todd makes some good points in this area, albeit on the shaky grounds of the slippery slope trope.

i think BTC-e is temporarily deluded at best.

first, they have no clear way of proving which coins were stolen.  it makes no sense that the thieves would send stolen coins directly to BTC-e for sale w/o a few intermediate hops at least.  similarly, "mule" activity can only be suspected, not proved.  secondly, while i agree BTC-e has the right to choose to behave as they wish (it being a free mkt), the consequences of such actions will be to destroy their own business as internet of money (Bitcoin) will choose to route around them if their behavior persists.  thirdly, i doubt they're acting out of pure ethics; the behavior is suspicious as the owners have been anonymous from the beginning making this freezing of coins highly suspicious.  my bet is that they had some of their own coins on Evo and they're just trying to retrieve them.  thirdly, do you really think they will just freeze the coins and then destroy them?  hell no, they'll eventually have to decide to return them to their rightful owners, destroy them, or turn them over to some law enforcement agency (think DOJ).  in the first instance, those owners will then merrily go off and spend those coins freely as if nothing happened and recipients of those coins will do likewise.  in the second instance, destroying them would be an untenable act as the rightful owners (if they can even be identified) would scream bloody foul again destroying their customer base.  if they try to hold them "forever", suspicions will arise that they might eventually spend them themselves (BTC-e).  in the third instance of turning them over to DOJ or some gvt (and here's the real zinger) what do you think they would do with them?  Voila!  we already have 3 instances of exactly what the feds would do:  auction them off.  and this is where the ultimate hypocrisy comes from all this moral and legal parsing going on about this tainting issue.  when gvts believe they have the moral authority to do what's right for them and them only (auctioning and running off with the proceeds from "illegal activity") they undermine confidence in themselves from the viewpoint of the people.  i know that when i see these auctions going off on SR coins or the auction the Aussie authorities are planning, i think hypocrisy, ie theft.  this is why the Bitcoin community will ultimately give those tainted coins a pass and accept them in everyday trade.  if the gvt can do it, so can they.  this "pass" just takes time.  in 2 wks, this Evo thing will have blown over.  furthermore, if the community refuses to do this, it means the end of Bitcoin as what is paramount is the principle of fungibility.
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March 22, 2015, 05:38:22 PM
 #22108


Thankfully my coins are clean so whitelisting for me would only be a disaster insofar as it would destroy any reason whatsoever for anyone to used Bitcoin and thus the solution (and my stash) would eventually die.  I'd either cash out before it dawned on people that Bitcoin was useless, or hope that a following system would start out where Bitcoin left off vis-a-vis a value base.  Probably some combination of both.



i'd bet you have a few of MyBitcoins theft in your stash:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=548508.0
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March 22, 2015, 05:48:28 PM
 #22109

A very nice article about bitcoin and gold virtues if (when?) the dollar collapses:

When the Dollar Collapses, which is better Money, Gold or Bitcoin?
Was satoshis intent to allow for a gold backed bitcoin

No

Quote
since there is a reason he chose 21 million units based on amount of gold oz estimated that will be mined?

and no.



I might be wrong, but thought there was some programming reason why there are 100 million sats in a bitcoin. That might also be why he chose 21 million total coins.

that was Vitalik in an article coupla years ago.  it was interesting.
cypherdoc
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March 22, 2015, 05:51:42 PM
 #22110

JR,

what's up with Odom leaving Monetas?
I only know one side of the story right now, so I can't really say.

Why aren't more people talking about this? OT was supposed to be huge for Bitcoin, it was Chris' baby for a long time now...

well i tried
cypherdoc
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March 22, 2015, 06:02:14 PM
 #22111


Litecoin fading != "there will only be one" is starting to catch on

All the recent attention to the dangers of BTC's lack of privacy and fungibility have only highlighted the need for coins that offer those features.

Radical transparency certainly has its uses in certain places.  But so does radical opacity.

Hence today's brouhaha among the redditurds:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2zrdxz/withdrawals_halted_as_stolen_evolution_coins_make/

That's just a bunch of FUD. Tainting coins has not worked once in Bitcoins history.

That depends what you mean by worked. If the reports of a blockage of btc-e transactions are correct (I'm not really sure) then people were inconvenienced by the mere attempt to sort through tainted coins, whether or not that attempt was successful. As long as people believe BTC has taint then maybe that perception itself is a problem? This is not the first and won't be the last time we've heard about the concern.

there have been multiple attempts to taint BTC's over the years.  all have failed.  to be clear, i don't condone theft in any way, but the fact of the matter is that Bitcoin IS fungible for all the reasons i've stated above.  it has to be to survive.  just like USD's are fungible.  sure the gvt can issue warnings for certain serial #'s on dollar bills but that is a limited and a non-scalable act (probably purposely).  tainting just a few BTC would eventually taint the entire supply of existing BTC as demonstrated in Taras thread i linked to above.  it is scalable and therefore dangerous to Bitcoin.  tainting is not practical either as just a few hops obfuscates ownership quite effectively w/o extreme degrees of detective work:  http://trilema.com/2014/guidance-there-is-no-such-thing-as-bitcoin-taint/

any gvt that subscribes to the notion of tainting will only exclude themselves from the growing Bitcoin economy as there will always be gvts somewhere that will allow those coins through either b/c of better understanding of how distributed systems over the Internet work or b/c of greed.
Quote

In any case, I have to agree with iCEBREAKER that LTC is irrelevant and the more interesting question is other coins that are actually different from BTC in meaningful ways.

i disagree.  when the #2 cryptocurrency goes down that sends a big message.  this assumes of course that Bitcoin is "good enough" or that it can be adaptable in the future.
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March 22, 2015, 06:23:13 PM
 #22112

A very nice article about bitcoin and gold virtues if (when?) the dollar collapses:

When the Dollar Collapses, which is better Money, Gold or Bitcoin?
Was satoshis intent to allow for a gold backed bitcoin

No

Quote
since there is a reason he chose 21 million units based on amount of gold oz estimated that will be mined?

and no.



I might be wrong, but thought there was some programming reason why there are 100 million sats in a bitcoin. That might also be why he chose 21 million total coins.

Usually, one has to take great care when programming with monetary values - floating point numbers as they are dominantly used in computations introduce rounding errors.  And because they are based on a binary representation, they can not even store "trivial" fractions like 0.1 in an exact fashion.  The solution is to use "fixed-point numbers", which basically means computing in satoshis (as integer value) instead of bitcoins (decimal number required).  Just like Bitcoin Core does.

However, the number of satoshis in existence is (as far as I read) chosen in such a way that it still "fits" into a standard-format floating point number as used by most programming environments.  There are still rounding errors, but for all possible bitcoin amounts, the errors are just below one satoshi.  Thus, it is harder to shoot oneself into the foot when programming carelessly.  Whether or not this really is the reason for Satoshis original choice or not, I do not know.  The initial block reward of 50 BTC and the block schedule looks also "innocent", so maybe he just chose that and the 21 million figure is just what results from it.

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March 22, 2015, 06:58:16 PM
 #22113


Thankfully my coins are clean so whitelisting for me would only be a disaster insofar as it would destroy any reason whatsoever for anyone to used Bitcoin and thus the solution (and my stash) would eventually die.  I'd either cash out before it dawned on people that Bitcoin was useless, or hope that a following system would start out where Bitcoin left off vis-a-vis a value base.  Probably some combination of both.


i'd bet you have a few of MyBitcoins theft in your stash:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=548508.0

Most people likely have MyBitcoin stuff (I've not read the link yet.)  I personally probably have a fair number of BTC which are closely linked to the allinvain (purported) heist.  Word is that these were up for sale on Tradehill-I at the time that I was doing some significant acquisition.  But I also have the records of my interactions with Tradehill, and the records of my interactions with the IRS when I paid my taxes.

When tainting pops up it will probably be in the form of white-listing and will probably afford the benefit of the doubt to hodlers.  Especially old-timers.  As long as Gavin does his job and Bitcoin can be controlled, there will be no reason to destroy Bitcoin and many reasons not to since it is actually quite useful to people from all over the spectrum.  And if the (false) idea that Bitcoin has any particular value when it has become a less convenient PayPal can be preserved it could also serve to detract from interest in real solutions which do have value.


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March 22, 2015, 07:05:32 PM
 #22114


Thankfully my coins are clean so whitelisting for me would only be a disaster insofar as it would destroy any reason whatsoever for anyone to used Bitcoin and thus the solution (and my stash) would eventually die.  I'd either cash out before it dawned on people that Bitcoin was useless, or hope that a following system would start out where Bitcoin left off vis-a-vis a value base.  Probably some combination of both.


i'd bet you have a few of MyBitcoins theft in your stash:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=548508.0

Most people likely have MyBitcoin stuff (I've not read the link yet.)  I personally probably have a fair number of BTC which are closely linked to the allinvain (purported) heist.  Word is that these were up for sale on Tradehill-I at the time that I was doing some significant acquisition.  But I also have the records of my interactions with Tradehill, and the records of my interactions with the IRS when I paid my taxes.

When tainting pops up it will probably be in the form of white-listing and will probably afford the benefit of the doubt to hodlers.  Especially old-timers.  As long as Gavin does his job and Bitcoin can be controlled, there will be no reason to destroy Bitcoin and many reasons not to since it is actually quite useful to people from all over the spectrum.  And if the (false) idea that Bitcoin has any particular value when it has become a less convenient PayPal can be preserved it could also serve to detract from interest in real solutions which do have value.



the thing is, the gvt is not going to get involved in a situation where drug dealers steal coin from other drug dealers and then try to sell them off on an anonymous exchange in Bulgaria.  they only care if they themselves can get their hands on the BTC which in this Evo case, they cannot.  so they'll just let the community shoot it out and the final result will be just like every other theft in Bitcoinland since Day 1; nothing.
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March 22, 2015, 07:20:13 PM
 #22115

JR,

what's up with Odom leaving Monetas?
I only know one side of the story right now, so I can't really say.

Why aren't more people talking about this? OT was supposed to be huge for Bitcoin, it was Chris' baby for a long time now...

well i tried
https://github.com/FellowTraveler?tab=activity
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March 22, 2015, 07:21:19 PM
 #22116

Looks a lot like the psychology changed from "sell the tops" to "buy the dips".
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March 22, 2015, 08:06:45 PM
 #22117

Looks a lot like the psychology changed from "sell the tops" to "buy the dips".

Yes, ignore all news good or bad. The trend has changed.
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March 22, 2015, 08:30:48 PM
 #22118


the thing is, the gvt is not going to get involved in a situation where drug dealers steal coin from other drug dealers and then try to sell them off on an anonymous exchange in Bulgaria.  they only care if they themselves can get their hands on the BTC which in this Evo case, they cannot.  so they'll just let the community shoot it out and the final result will be just like every other theft in Bitcoinland since Day 1; nothing.

The govt's role is super simple:

 - Mandate a license and enforce it on key retailers and service providers of the on-line wallet type (e.g., Coinbase...who probably won't take much convincing...)

 - Charter a service (e.g., CoinValidation) or two which do validation.

The licensee just uses a simple API from the validator.

When this occurs I will require that if you want to send me BTC, you do it through my Coinbase account.  Yes, I'm vehemently opposed to the whole system, but I'm not going to take a bullet by absorbing your unvalidated BTC which I may not be able to spend and have to trade to someone else who will also will value unvalidated BTC at a lower rate.

To make matters worse, anyone who is enough of a chump to accept unvalidated BTC will find people wishing to dump them beating a path to one's door.

I would also caution against assuming that a validation solution cannot work because of the difficulty of the task.  Validation need not be anything remotely precise or even accurate.  I think we'll find that the amount of liability protection afforded to a validating service in association with their charter would make the vaccine manufactures blush.

TPTB have a good friend in Mr. Andresen and thus a very strong hand.  I won't go into the game theory, but there are still a bunch of ways to overplay the hand that they have here.  A person who is on the ball, and who has a bit of luck, may be able to come out of this thing fairly well.


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March 22, 2015, 09:17:39 PM
 #22119


the thing is, the gvt is not going to get involved in a situation where drug dealers steal coin from other drug dealers and then try to sell them off on an anonymous exchange in Bulgaria.  they only care if they themselves can get their hands on the BTC which in this Evo case, they cannot.  so they'll just let the community shoot it out and the final result will be just like every other theft in Bitcoinland since Day 1; nothing.

The govt's role is super simple:

 - Mandate a license and enforce it on key retailers and service providers of the on-line wallet type (e.g., Coinbase...who probably won't take much convincing...)

 - Charter a service (e.g., CoinValidation) or two which do validation.

The licensee just uses a simple API from the validator.

When this occurs I will require that if you want to send me BTC, you do it through my Coinbase account.  Yes, I'm vehemently opposed to the whole system, but I'm not going to take a bullet by absorbing your unvalidated BTC which I may not be able to spend and have to trade to someone else who will also will value unvalidated BTC at a lower rate.

To make matters worse, anyone who is enough of a chump to accept unvalidated BTC will find people wishing to dump them beating a path to one's door.

I would also caution against assuming that a validation solution cannot work because of the difficulty of the task.  Validation need not be anything remotely precise or even accurate.  I think we'll find that the amount of liability protection afforded to a validating service in association with their charter would make the vaccine manufactures blush.

TPTB have a good friend in Mr. Andresen and thus a very strong hand.  I won't go into the game theory, but there are still a bunch of ways to overplay the hand that they have here.  A person who is on the ball, and who has a bit of luck, may be able to come out of this thing fairly well.



the problem is this; you don't understand the game theory.

the cat is out of the bag on this one.  Bitcoin is global and growing rapidly overseas.  take the worse case scenario; the US turns off its internet to short circuit Bitcoin.  ok, big whoop.  the rest of the world continues on.  and given their clear tendencies, China and Russia may even embrace Bitcoin once they figure out they can't stop it and embracing could mean the end of the USD hegemony.  many of us would route around or tunnel thru via VPN's.  first off, turning off the internet will never happen.  second, if it did, it would last probably <24 hrs as the banks themselves cry Uncle from the immediate destruction of their daily business and confidence.  stock, bond, and USD markets would plummet.

there is something called accountability and credibility that the US gvt must adhere to to a degree despite what you might think.  they just got done auctioning off the 3rd tranche of BTC for cold, hard cash that they gladly accepted with open hands.  they just got done making it legal via Fincen, the IRS via tax law, the NYDFS via BitLicense, the Senate Banking Hearings, the FEC donations, and various other state laws.  

the good news is that the technology is good enough fundamentally to actually make the US eventually want to use it to maintain an upper hand in world finance.  perhaps as backing for the USD.
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March 22, 2015, 10:01:21 PM
 #22120

If whitelisting becomes a thing, I will make a point by only accepting black (non-whitelisted) coins.

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