Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

you guys should watch this.  it's interesting.  no mention about Bitcoin though:   http://wearelegionthedocumentary.com/

[1714023401]

1714023401

[1714023401]

1714023401

[1714023401]

1714023401

[1714023401]

1714023401

[1714023401]

1714023401

[SkRRJyTC]

you guys should watch this.  it's interesting.  no mention about Bitcoin though:   http://wearelegionthedocumentary.com/

ooh 4chan lol

[S3052]

How do people go about trying to quantify this?

Without breaking anonymity, you can't. The market simply feels different from my perspective, having been observing it for over two years. Watching the magnitude of the moves, reactions to them, general sentiment in forum and blog discussion, handling of news by media, etc. all point to widespread indications of growth - still early, but it's like waking from a deep sleep and getting reoriented.

Again, from my view (and I suspect others - cypher, Trace, Turk...)

I agree, in blue, as always :-)

[sunnankar]

Either way, it's good stuff. Notice that monthly volume is the 4th highest it's ever been in USD terms (likely to be 3rd by the end of the month), and this seems to be a different type of volume than the previous highs were - the 2011 bubble (June), the 2012 new year spike (January; possibly Pirate related), and the 2012 BS&T shutdown (August). Instead of concentrated activity or disasters, this feels more like organic growth from wider demand. With the exception of some high-volume trading participants, it does look like there are a lot more players than a year ago.

How do people go about trying to quantify this?

You would be surprised as some of us have some pretty sophisticated tools. There is a ton of useful information and analytics out there; if you only know what to look for and how to analyze it. There is also just simple currency valuation techniques just like there are simple fundamental financial analysis techniques (in case you want to see where I was right, again).

Think of currencies like storage containers like a propane tank or a battery. As funds flow in the price goes up as funds flow out the price goes down. Case in point, the stock market sells off and the USD strengthens because people are in effect selling stocks and buying dollars. Its all about funds flow. I actually think the BTC price is not going up nearly as fast as it could because BTCs are increasingly being used as settlement currencies.

While this keeps the BTC price down it is strengthening the overall Bitcoin economy. And that strength, think of it like a trade surplus and budget surplus (since Bitcoin is an equity based instrument) is laying the ground work for a very large move up, perhaps to at least $80-100, in the price over the next 12-18 months.

[miscreanity]

Its all about funds flow. I actually think the BTC price is not going up nearly as fast as it could because BTCs are increasingly being used as settlement currencies.

Indeed, and flow is just as important as accumulation - the latter is accelerated when the former builds.

While this keeps the BTC price down it is strengthening the overall Bitcoin economy. And that strength, think of it like a trade surplus and budget surplus (since Bitcoin is an equity based instrument) is laying the ground work for a very large move up, perhaps to at least $80-100, in the price over the next 12-18 months.

Exactly - the constant downward pressure is like packing down loose soil until it forms a rock-solid foundation. I might have to add to my 2014 bet

[lebing]

Good to see this thread delivering again - thanks guys

[waspoza]

Good to see this thread delivering again - thanks guys

+1

[bb113]

I knew nothing of economics, trading or anything before I learned about bitcoin. I still view it as an experiment both, in and of itself, and for me personally. Even if the value goes to zero and I get no direct material profit it is still a net positive for me based on that alone. Some people like to show up an shit on speculators but after my experiences here I think that what they do is the epitome of top-down psychological research.

I said it once before, this is the most interesting experiment around and will continue to attract people who like that kind of thing the longer it persists. Thanks local experts.

[vokain]

I knew nothing of economics, trading or anything before I learned about bitcoin. I still view it as an experiment both, in and of itself, and for me personally. Even if the value goes to zero and I get no direct material profit it is still a net positive for me based on that alone. Some people like to show up an shit on speculators but after my experiences here I think that what they do is the epitome of top-down psychological research.

I said it once before, this is the most interesting experiment around and will continue to attract people who like that kind of thing the longer it persists. Thanks local experts.

+1
thank you.

[sunnankar]

I knew nothing of economics, trading or anything before I learned about bitcoin. I still view it as an experiment both, in and of itself, and for me personally. Even if the value goes to zero and I get no direct material profit it is still a net positive for me based on that alone. Some people like to show up an shit on speculators but after my experiences here I think that what they do is the epitome of top-down psychological research.

I said it once before, this is the most interesting experiment around and will continue to attract people who like that kind of thing the longer it persists. Thanks local experts.

Yes, Bitcoin is a fun experiment but the principles and theorems of human action still apply.

Markets are markets and based on Human Action. If you have not read Mises's magnum opus then I would highly recommend doing so to get a better understanding of why humans do what they do.

For speculators it is not so much top-down as bottom up. Among individuals there is information asymmetry and individual human action is generally done with intention to bring about some ends. Often, that ends is generally designed to improve the individual actor's circumstances. Each individual has access to information in different degrees and they always know something better than other individuals do (if only their own preference; but it could be as simple as the best route from point A to B, how to design a turbine engine, etc.). So, what the pricing mechanism does is tease out information from the marketplace.

And, ultimately, those speculators who are more accurate at prognosticating the future profit.

Your experimenting with Bitcoin is a great example of someone learning how the principles of human action work in an extremely raw environment (lack of govt. regulation). Of course, all govt. regulation does is create inefficiencies in the market which speculators and entrepreneurs are able to take advantage of and make tons of money. This experience and knowledge you gain from experimenting with Bitcoin, assuming you learn some correct principles (hence why I recommend reading Human Action), will help you make more accurate economic and financial prognostication decisions throughout your life. And who does not like being able to accurately and correctly prognosticate?

[bb113]

I knew nothing of economics, trading or anything before I learned about bitcoin. I still view it as an experiment both, in and of itself, and for me personally. Even if the value goes to zero and I get no direct material profit it is still a net positive for me based on that alone. Some people like to show up an shit on speculators but after my experiences here I think that what they do is the epitome of top-down psychological research.

I said it once before, this is the most interesting experiment around and will continue to attract people who like that kind of thing the longer it persists. Thanks local experts.

Yes, Bitcoin is a fun experiment but the principles and theorems of human action still apply.

Markets are markets and based on Human Action. If you have not read Mises's magnum opus then I would highly recommend doing so to get a better understanding of why humans do what they do.

For speculators it is not so much top-down as bottom up. Among individuals there is information asymmetry and individual human action is generally done with intention to bring about some ends. Often, that ends is generally designed to improve the individual actor's circumstances. Each individual has access to information in different degrees and they always know something better than other individuals do (if only their own preference; but it could be as simple as the best route from point A to B, how to design a turbine engine, etc.). So, what the pricing mechanism does is tease out information from the marketplace.

And, ultimately, those speculators who are more accurate at prognosticating the future profit.

Your experimenting with Bitcoin is a great example of someone learning how the principles of human action work in an extremely raw environment (lack of govt. regulation). Of course, all govt. regulation does is create inefficiencies in the market which speculators and entrepreneurs are able to take advantage of and make tons of money. This experience and knowledge you gain from experimenting with Bitcoin, assuming you learn some correct principles (hence why I recommend reading Human Action), will help you make more accurate economic and financial prognostication decisions throughout your life. And who does not like being able to accurately and correctly prognosticate?

Bottom-up to me means trying to understand why each neuron of each person is firing.  I will take your advice.

[Luno]

I knew nothing of economics, trading or anything before I learned about bitcoin. I still view it as an experiment both, in and of itself, and for me personally. Even if the value goes to zero and I get no direct material profit it is still a net positive for me based on that alone. Some people like to show up an shit on speculators but after my experiences here I think that what they do is the epitome of top-down psychological research.

I said it once before, this is the most interesting experiment around and will continue to attract people who like that kind of thing the longer it persists. Thanks local experts.

When I was quite new here, I read a post of yours where speculated that the current downtrend from $7 would end at $4.50 and the new high would be $14.

As we all know, you were completely right!!! Please consider yourself one of the local experts and don't be so modest!!

[bb113]

I knew nothing of economics, trading or anything before I learned about bitcoin. I still view it as an experiment both, in and of itself, and for me personally. Even if the value goes to zero and I get no direct material profit it is still a net positive for me based on that alone. Some people like to show up an shit on speculators but after my experiences here I think that what they do is the epitome of top-down psychological research.

I said it once before, this is the most interesting experiment around and will continue to attract people who like that kind of thing the longer it persists. Thanks local experts.

When I was quite new here, I read a post of yours where speculated that the current downtrend from $7 would end at $4.50 and the new high would be $14.

As we all know, you were completely right!!! Please consider yourself one of the local experts and don't be so modest!!

And next I learned it was more complicated than that.

[cypherdoc]

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread):

Bitcoin:  +242%

Gold:  -3%

GPL:  -25% silverbox long

Diff:  +245% advantage Bitcoin and growing.

[cypherdoc]

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread):

Bitcoin:  +248%

Gold:  -3%

GPL:  -25% silverbox long

Diff:  +251% advantage Bitcoin and growing.

[thezerg]

I actually think the BTC price is not going up nearly as fast as it could because BTCs are increasingly being used as settlement currencies.

Do you have evidence of its use as a settlement currency?

[sunnankar]

I actually think the BTC price is not going up nearly as fast as it could because BTCs are increasingly being used as settlement currencies.

Do you have evidence of its use as a settlement currency?

Nothing I would like to share publicly besides stuff that is already public like MPEx.

[cypherdoc]

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread):

Bitcoin:  +254%

Gold:  -3%

GPL:  -25% silverbox long

Diff:  +257% advantage Bitcoin and growing.

[cypherdoc]

The geeks fail to understand that which they hath created .

[cypherdoc]

Bitcoin is not an experiment.   It is a living organism - much like a virus.   It mutates.