Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[oakpacific]

Kinda wish I didn't buy 2 oz in mid December before the correction and bought BTC instead :s Btw I bought BTC too just worth a lot less than 2oz of Au.

don't fret; you weren't the only one.  i present to you, your predecessor (Disc Mod):

You seem really butthurt over everything.  Bagholder?

Ouch you are, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49159.msg586961#msg586961

So sorry, good luck with that.  

6/7 days up.

You have a ridiculously short memory. Up from...$2.5? Nice. Good luck recovering your losses. What you buy at, $28?

Not only that, sold his gold to invest in btc.  True believer bagholder right here.    

Watching cypherdoc get more and more frantic every day is pretty hilarious.  At least it would be if it weren't so sad.  

its ok.  double bottoms are not uncommon.  the blockchain marches on.

RISK ON!  LOL

Any day now the money is going to come pouring in, you'll see, you'll see...

Yes all those investors just sitting around waiting for the right moment to dump millions into bitcoins.  Reminds me of that hilarious post cypher made earlier in this thread: 

i can easily see professional investors looking over the table:

Q:  whats this over here, Bitcoin?  i thought it was done?

A:  no, still hanging around.

Q:  didn't it get hacked?

A:  the exchange did but the source code didn't.

Q:  is Gavin still around?

A:  yes.

Q:  how about those other guys, Stefan Thomas, Amir Taaki, and Jeff Garzik?

A:  they're still there too.

Q:  God, i thought they would've given up by now if Bitcoin really was a ponzi.

A:  nope.

Q:  any improvements in security?

A:  tons.  consumers are now protected by encryption and mtgox hasn't suffered another attack.

Q:  really?  how much is it now?

A:  $2

Q:  you're kidding.  didn't you say it acts like gold?  a limited supply?

A:  yes

Q:  well, our gold/silver plays aren't doing so well.

A:  lets pour a few million into Bitcoin.  its oversold and maybe we can get a short squeeze going.

ANY DAY GUYS THINK POSITIVE!

If I were you, I would not wasteng my time arguing with losers, cause all they can do now is to talk.

yes, but back then it was not clear who the loser exactly was.  you have no idea what kinda shitfest existed here on this very forum back in those dark days.

Ha, I actually meant that there is no need to tease them now, the rally itself must be painful enough already. was actually here, but I stop reading the forum for a while during those dark days, lest their trash talk would move me to sell my bitcoins.

[cypherdoc]

I Love Bitcoin.

Too tired to do an update.  Suffice it to say; it's rippin'.

[cypherdoc]

The Daaash for Digital Caaash

[cypherdoc]

alright, alright, if you insist:

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread):

Bitcoin:  +246%

Gold:  0%

GPL:  -19% silverbox long

Diff:  +246% advantage Bitcoin and growing.

[paraipan]

alright, alright, if you insist:

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread):

Bitcoin:  +246%

Gold:  0%

GPL:  -19% silverbox long

Diff:  +246% advantage Bitcoin and growing.

^ Nice one  

Scramble for cover guys!

[cypherdoc]

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread):

Bitcoin:  +249%

Gold:  -1%

GPL:  -21% silverbox long

Diff:  +250% advantage Bitcoin and growing.

[World]

KABOOM AGAIN

come to Bitcoin Baby, come to Bitcoin.

Jim Cramer “Apple is no longer magical."

[tvbcof]

If I were you, I would not wasteng my time arguing with losers, cause all they can do now is to talk.

yes, but back then it was not clear who the loser exactly was.  you have no idea what kinda shitfest existed here on this very forum back in those dark days.

Ha, I actually meant that there is no need to tease them now, the rally itself must be painful enough already. was actually here, but I stop reading the forum for a while during those dark days, lest their trash talk would move me to sell my bitcoins.

I was following things back in the 'dark days' pretty closely.  Part of it was incidental and related to general interests, but another part was that I was looking for the various psychological phases of a bubble.  Namely the 'despair' phase.

I was planning to double down one last time in the mid $1.xx range, but we never got there.  A drop into the $0.xx range probably would have tipped me into the 'dispair' phase due to the simple arithmatic of things.

My interest tapered off once the price rise happened and I've not bought any BTC since.  The current up-leg is severe enough to keep even stoic old me coming back to check the charts (and spam the forum) more often than is healthy.  Oh well.

[miscreanity]

if you do this you might want to start from the Jan 2009 date that Bitcoin was born.

A bit busy recently, but I'll post my chart of the monthly data (from late 2010 on) later today or tomorrow. I can make the data set available as well.

[cypherdoc]

if you do this you might want to start from the Jan 2009 date that Bitcoin was born.

A bit busy recently, but I'll post my chart of the monthly data (from late 2010 on) later today or tomorrow. I can make the data set available as well.

i think monthly is preferable to yearly and is the longest interval i'd like to see.

[cypherdoc]

KABOOM AGAIN

Apple just totally getting Bitch-Slapped.

[Dusty]

Probabily I'm a bit offtopic but I don't mind judging the general level of the late posts ;-) so: could someone explain me how to buy a put option for AAPL?

I find the apple capitalization is pure madness, and I suppose that now that iphones get so much competition from android apple will be unable to keep the fuzz to this height and some time after the iphone5 is out the stock value will begin to plunge.

(AAPL was around 600 at that time)

PS. JMO, Don't short Apple .... you will get eaten. If you want some put selling strategies you may want to check out Fully Informed.

Apple just totally getting Bitch-Slapped.

AAPL trading around 440 right now.

Turns out that maybe I was not so wrong about shorting AAPL

[CurbsideProphet]

KABOOM AGAIN

Apple just totally getting Bitch-Slapped.

Yeah my shorts (actually put options) are paying off nicely.  I may cover soon, I know you're thinking in the $300s but I have to dig a little more as I'm not entirely convinced.  Hope to post something a little more in depth later. 

[cypherdoc]

KABOOM AGAIN

Apple just totally getting Bitch-Slapped.

Yeah my shorts (actually put options) are paying off nicely.  I may cover soon, I know you're thinking in the $300s but I have to dig a little more as I'm not entirely convinced.  Hope to post something a little more in depth later.  

my $300 target is based on what i see as a negatively tilting head & shoulders configuration with a $200 difference btwn the top of the head and the neckline at $500.  $500-200=300.

[miscreanity]

Alright, here we go.

On a monthly close basis, we could see a record high if price stays above the $16.10 level.


Viewing monthly average prices, we aren't quite ready to break into new territory just yet.


Either way, it's good stuff. Notice that monthly volume is the 4th highest it's ever been in USD terms (likely to be 3rd by the end of the month), and this seems to be a different type of volume than the previous highs were - the 2011 bubble (June), the 2012 new year spike (January; possibly Pirate related), and the 2012 BS&T shutdown (August). Instead of concentrated activity or disasters, this feels more like organic growth from wider demand. With the exception of some high-volume trading participants, it does look like there are a lot more players than a year ago.

[cypherdoc]

Alright, here we go.

On a monthly close basis, we could see a record high if price stays above the $16.10 level.


Viewing monthly average prices, we aren't quite ready to break into new territory just yet.


Either way, it's good stuff. Notice that monthly volume is the 4th highest it's ever been in USD terms (likely to be 3rd by the end of the month), and this seems to be a different type of volume than the previous highs were - the 2011 bubble (June), the 2012 new year spike (January; possibly Pirate related), and the 2012 BS&T shutdown (August). Instead of concentrated activity or disasters, this feels more like organic growth from wider demand. With the exception of some high-volume trading participants, it does look like there are a lot more players than a year ago.

so a few things:

1.  i don't think closing prices for such a long time interval are helpful.  your first graph completely omits the spike to $32, which altho brief, is important info for the avg investor.  that spike rightfully illuminates the irrational exuberance exhibited at the time by investors chasing the price.  there is important information there that needs to be preserved.  this is why we use candles or OHLC bars that illustrate the entire range of the months price movement as opposed to a single point.

2.  while monthly charts may be your favored timeframe to look at, i think it is important to look at multiple timeframes such as weekly and daily as well when making trading decisions.  monthly charts may only reveal favorable trading conditions once a year which is too infrequent for alot of us.  this is why i recommend using intermediate timeframes, such as the weekly, to trade in my newsletter.  this allows more frequent entry/exit points on the order of perhaps every few months as opposed to once or twice a year which i've found is more popular for active investors.  the intermediate timeframe is also long enough to prevent day trading off of the daily chart which can eat your account alive from fees and impulsive decisions.

good job though on the charts.

[miscreanity]

1.  i don't think closing prices for such a long time interval are helpful.  your first graph completely omits the spike to $32, which altho brief, is important info for the avg investor.  that spike rightfully illuminates the irrational exuberance exhibited at the time by investors chasing the price.  there is important information there that needs to be preserved.  this is why we use candles or OHLC bars that illustrate the entire range of the months price movement as opposed to a single point.

Agreed, and known periods can be targeted to paint charts. I'd have to change tools to include candlesticks or OHLC ticks, but this does well for the purposes of observing long-term trends.

2.  while monthly charts may be your favored timeframe to look at, i think it is important to look at multiple timeframes such as weekly and daily as well when making trading decisions.  monthly charts may only reveal favorable trading conditions once a year which is too infrequent for alot of us.  this is why i recommend using intermediate timeframes, such as the weekly, to trade in my newsletter.  this allows more frequent entry/exit points on the order of perhaps every few months as opposed to once or twice a year which i've found is more popular for active investors.  the intermediate timeframe is also long enough to prevent day trading off of the daily chart which can eat your account alive from fees and impulsive decisions.

good job though on the charts.

Thanks! I've kept my daily/weekly charts updated as well, although my preference is to only make a few major trades per year.

Buy signal triggered at the daily scale on the drop from $19 to $16.


No signal generated on a weekly basis, although a breach of $20-21 would have.


As the market grows in size, weekly signals should become more easily reached. That will stabilize once the market is saturated and everyone knows about Bitcoin, but until then it ought to be highly profitable.

[bb113]

Either way, it's good stuff. Notice that monthly volume is the 4th highest it's ever been in USD terms (likely to be 3rd by the end of the month), and this seems to be a different type of volume than the previous highs were - the 2011 bubble (June), the 2012 new year spike (January; possibly Pirate related), and the 2012 BS&T shutdown (August). Instead of concentrated activity or disasters, this feels more like organic growth from wider demand. With the exception of some high-volume trading participants, it does look like there are a lot more players than a year ago.

How do people go about trying to quantify this?

[miscreanity]

How do people go about trying to quantify this?

Without breaking anonymity, you can't. The market simply feels different from my perspective, having been observing it for over two years. Watching the magnitude of the moves, reactions to them, general sentiment in forum and blog discussion, handling of news by media, etc. all point to widespread indications of growth - still early, but it's like waking from a deep sleep and getting reoriented.

Again, from my view (and I suspect others - cypher, Trace, Turk...)

[cypherdoc]

How do people go about trying to quantify this?

Without breaking anonymity, you can't. The market simply feels different from my perspective, having been observing it for over two years. Watching the magnitude of the moves, reactions to them, general sentiment in forum and blog discussion, handling of news by media, etc. all point to widespread indications of growth - still early, but it's like waking from a deep sleep and getting reoriented.

Again, from my view (and I suspect others - cypher, Trace, Turk...)

absolutely