Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

it doesn't matter who's right.

Yup. I still say it's impractical and borderline reckless to switch to crypto fully, though. It's simple enough to straddle traditional and crypto, rebalancing as per fiat risk tolerance.

as much as i troll miscreanity, he was the other half of Gold: I Smell A Trap.  without him, these gold threads would never have become as popular as they are.  i won't soon forget the 4 mo debate from 8/11-11/11 i had with him which made up the bulk of that and this thread.  back and forth, multiple times per day, in friendly and sometimes not so friendly terms (mainly b/c of me).  he has a much deeper understanding of economics than 99% of you here.  

yet somehow he's gone astray on this gold thing.    he's slowly giving way, much to his credit.  

i think what he, and most others, are missing is the speed and rapidity of the Bitcoin phenomenon.  also, this fuzziness of supply with gold is a major problem.

edit:  for evidence of this, look at his sig.  he grossly undersestimated the speed with which those price predictions would be achieved.  he's not the only one.

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[marcus_of_augustus]

Up to this point I estimated there to be around 160,000 tons of gold above ground and I think that's along the lines of other estimates.

Karen says that there is at least 500,000 tons of gold, all conventional figures say about 160,000 tons. The latter figure is imho rather well researched from the mining output in 20th century - before which only a fraction of the total gold existing was produced. Do you have some credible theory, how the gold aboveground could be so much higher figure?

Central Banks using all there gold to gold plate tungsten bars could perhaps extend 160k tons to 500k tons i suppose ...

[cypherdoc]

[rpietila]

it doesn't matter who's right.

Yup. I still say it's impractical and borderline reckless to switch to crypto fully, though. It's simple enough to straddle traditional and crypto, rebalancing as per fiat risk tolerance.

If you hold Bitcoin I don't really see the need to hold PMs as well. However, a healthy collection of nice stocks never hurt anyone

If you are 100% sure of Bitcoin, plus 100% sure of your government, and 100% sure of everything, please by all means skip PM's totally. But why would you, as it does not hurt to own a tiny emergency stash. Most of us have at least some insurance for house for example. Hopefully this analogy will make it easier to understand why going 100% all in with anything is just not smart.

People including me think that I am cocksure, yet it means that I am only about 25% sure that Bitcoin will take over fiat in a grand way, 75% sure that I know the intention of my government, and 10% sure of everything. If in your heart you are even less sure about things, do not forget the sound math of gambling theory.

[smoothie]

it doesn't matter who's right.

the point is, production and stock is fuzzy; and it always will be.  which is precisely why i switched to BTC investment back in early 2011.  Bitcoin is easily trackable according to the protocol by anyone.  it's brutally defined.  and time is proving it's uncrackable.

just one of the many reasons i've been arguing to switch publicly since Gold: I Smell A Trap.

Very good point. You can't track the total supply of PMs world wide. You can only make estimations of the total.

Never thought of that until now.

[NewLiberty]

it doesn't matter who's right.

the point is, production and stock is fuzzy; and it always will be.  which is precisely why i switched to BTC investment back in early 2011.  Bitcoin is easily trackable according to the protocol by anyone.  it's brutally defined.  and time is proving it's uncrackable.

just one of the many reasons i've been arguing to switch publicly since Gold: I Smell A Trap.

Very good point. You can't track the total supply of PMs world wide. You can only make estimations of the total.

Never thought of that until now.

This is why/how PM is anonymous, and Bitcoin isn't.

[molecular]

it doesn't matter who's right.

Yup. I still say it's impractical and borderline reckless to switch to crypto fully, though. It's simple enough to straddle traditional and crypto, rebalancing as per fiat risk tolerance.

Im doing this as well. People who have families and obligations should not have everything in one basket. Im a huge crypto guy and i have some silver in some fields somewhere. I hope i never have to dig it up but im happy it is there just in case i need it.

On the other hand: if you're young and don't have much money, going all-in with crypto can make sense.

[rpietila]

On the other hand: if you're young and don't have much money, going all-in with crypto can make sense.

In a sense, it's not going truly all-in if you don't wager in all your future earning potential...

If somebody has as much money as I do, but is young and healthy and with a good diploma (none of which I possess), his earning potential is much higher than mine. Therefore it makes sense to put a higher percentage of current wealth into crypto.

[oakpacific]

it doesn't matter who's right.

the point is, production and stock is fuzzy; and it always will be.  which is precisely why i switched to BTC investment back in early 2011.  Bitcoin is easily trackable according to the protocol by anyone. it's brutally defined.  and time is proving it's uncrackable.

just one of the many reasons i've been arguing to switch publicly since Gold: I Smell A Trap.

Very good point. You can't track the total supply of PMs world wide. You can only make estimations of the total.

Never thought of that until now.

This is why/how PM is anonymous, and Bitcoin isn't.

Anonymous until you want to claim your ownership, in which case Bitcoin is still more anonymous.

[wobber]

What's PM?

[conspirosphere.tk]

ok, just to try to stay in-topic: has gold bottomed here??? A swiss banker friend of a friend recently said me that it has to drop down to 1000 USD. I'm asking just 'cause i liquidated my papergold and looking for a good entry point for some phyzz while holding fast-depreciating USD.

About BTC and anything else, so fast and furious rallies in a context of unanimous bullishness make me feel nervous, bearish, and inclined to start selling, or at least put some bids at low price -about 140 USD.

[Peter Lambert]

What's PM?

It is a subset of alt currencies where instead of having a digital balance, your balance is determined by how much of a certain element you hold. Popular elements of choice include gold, silver, and platinum.

[thoughtfan]

^^ +1 I like it It's all in the context.

[NewLiberty]

it doesn't matter who's right.

the point is, production and stock is fuzzy; and it always will be.  which is precisely why i switched to BTC investment back in early 2011.  Bitcoin is easily trackable according to the protocol by anyone. it's brutally defined.  and time is proving it's uncrackable.

just one of the many reasons i've been arguing to switch publicly since Gold: I Smell A Trap.

Very good point. You can't track the total supply of PMs world wide. You can only make estimations of the total.

Never thought of that until now.

This is why/how PM is anonymous, and Bitcoin isn't.

Anonymous until you want to claim your ownership, in which case Bitcoin is still more anonymous.

Claiming ownership?  Not sure what you mean.
Physical PM is always anonymous.  It is as anonymous as the change in your pocket.
Which is more anonymous than the bills in your pocket which are each uniquely numbered and easily tracked (easier even than bitcoins).

[dozerz]

ok, just to try to stay in-topic: has gold bottomed here??? A swiss banker friend of a friend recently said me that it has to drop down to 1000 USD. I'm asking just 'cause i liquidated my papergold and looking for a good entry point for some phyzz while holding fast-depreciating USD.

About BTC and anything else, so fast and furious rallies in a context of unanimous bullishness make me feel nervous, bearish, and inclined to start selling, or at least put some bids at low price -about 140 USD.

probably better to ask the swiss banker friend for advice of gold bottom and when to buy than on a bitcoin forum.

gold is going down, but what the bottom and when to buy is anyones guess.

[thezerg]

40X!!!    

Just in case newbies to this thread do not understand, this posting periodically compares the buying power of gold vs. bitcoin if you had bought one vs the other in March 2012.  

For example, you had bought $1000 in gold on that date, you'd have a bit more than a half ounce worth around $780 today.  If you had bought bitcoin, you would have 185 coins worth 35 THOUSAND bucks!!!

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, nasdaq=3055, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin is 192.11 (177.44 btcChina in USD).  Gold is 1318.00.  Nasdaq is 3922.00
Bitcoin: 3457.59% (3185.93%)
Gold:    -22.01%
Nasdaq:  28.38%
Gold Diff:   4462% advantage Bitcoin
Nasdaq Diff:  2671% advantage Bitcoin
4561.708256055753

[BitcoinAshley]

ok, just to try to stay in-topic: has gold bottomed here??? A swiss banker friend of a friend recently said me that it has to drop down to 1000 USD. I'm asking just 'cause i liquidated my papergold and looking for a good entry point for some phyzz while holding fast-depreciating USD.

Well the thesis of this thread (so far as I can tell) is that gold is at the end of its 6000 year history as money, it's now just a useless shiny artifact, and will bottom at $0. Also there is absolutely no market manipulation and the number of paper certificates perfectly corresponds to the amount of phyz on the market. There's not, like, a lot more paper than phyz or anything. Sell sell sell!

[cypherdoc]

40X!!!    

Just in case newbies to this thread do not understand, this posting periodically compares the buying power of gold vs. bitcoin if you had bought one vs the other in March 2012.  

For example, you had bought $1000 in gold on that date, you'd have a bit more than a half ounce worth around $780 today.  If you had bought bitcoin, you would have 185 coins worth 35 THOUSAND bucks!!!

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, nasdaq=3055, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin is 192.11 (177.44 btcChina in USD).  Gold is 1318.00.  Nasdaq is 3922.00
Bitcoin: 3457.59% (3185.93%)
Gold:    -22.01%
Nasdaq:  28.38%
Gold Diff:   4462% advantage Bitcoin
Nasdaq Diff:  2671% advantage Bitcoin
4561.708256055753

Stop rubbing it in.

[vokain]

I can't wait to see this in 3-20 years.

[cypherdoc]

I can't wait to see this in 3-20 years.

Some of us might be dead by then.