[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rpietila]

When I heard about Monero, I did not "worry" about Bitcoin.

(should have...  )

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[owm123]

Smoothie, I hear you but disagree on one detail. 
  
I think that in reality it will eventually become bitcoin that is the niche market.  All other things equal, a digital collectible token with a fully traceable history is not as desirable as a private digital token that fulfills all the qualities of actual "digital cash".  
  
The unthinkable happened in 2013 when bitcoin achieved a value of hundreds of dollars.  Why?  The future is rarely what people expect (especially as technology progresses).  So I humbly speculate that a real shock is in store for the world as Monero surpasses Bitcoin at some point in the future (perhaps even as soon as 2019).

I don't disagree with your point. Your outlined scenario is possible. Although possibly unlikely (I hope it happens).

My comment was merely addressing those who want privacy. Some people may not really want financial privacy. But then again that is sort of an oxy-moron as most people don't publicly post their bank/financial statements in public for all to see.

In this video they are almost exactly what you are saying:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWM_UCeCCXc&feature=youtu.be&t=100

So according to this lady, finanical insitutaion are scared of public block chain, due to being well public. And currently hiding your transactions in bitcoin public block chain is very difficult, especially if you taking about serious money.

With monero, and view keys, you can choose if you want to make your transactions public or not. So the competition cant see their business in the block chain, but when tax office comes, everything is uncovered due to view key.

[americanpegasus]

The above's English wasn't the best, but I totally agree with him.  Also, I'm drunk so I totally got what he was saying.  
  
First banks and governments will embrace this idea of a "blockchain" and then they will immediately regret it.  "You mean if I sell weapons to Saudi Arabia there is a permanent record of it, accessible by all?"  "You mean if our corporation engages in insider trading against a rival there will be a public record available forever?"  
  
They will immediately wonder about if this is possible to do in private.  
  
Enter Monero.  
  
Every game needs public and private moves, even if you don't always agree with all the private moves. 
 
And the private moves are always move valuable than the public ones.

[Bagatell]

Everyone has three lives. A public life, a private life, and a secret life.

[smoothie]

Everyone has three lives. A public life, a private life, and a secret life.

difference between private and secret? 

[generalizethis]

Everyone has three lives. A public life, a private life, and a secret life.

difference between private and secret? 

Your wife shares your private life, your mistress shares your secret one.

[Febo]

Everyone has three lives. A public life, a private life, and a secret life.

Well, except us gamers, we have way more lives. 

[iCEBREAKER]

   16.29.3. "What is the "crypto phase change"?"
      - I'm normally skeptical of claims that a "singularity" is
         coming (nanotechnology being the usual place this is
         claimed, a la Vinge), but "phase changes" are more
         plausible. The effect of cheap printing was one such phase
         change, altering the connectivity of society and the
         dispersion of knowledge in a way that can best be described
         as a phase change. The effects of strong crypto, and the
         related ideas of digital cash, anonymous markets, etc., are
         likely to be similar.
      - transition
      - tipping factors, disgust by populace, runaway taxation
      + "leverage effect"
        - what Kelly called "the fax effect"
        - crypto use spreads, made more popular by common use
      - can nucleate in a small group...doesn't need mass
         acceptance
    16.29.4. "Can crypto anarchy be stopped?"
      + A goal is to get crypto widely enough deployed that it
         cannot then be stopped
        - to the point of no return, where the cost of withdrawing
           or banning a technology is simply too high (not always a
           guaranteee) 

 
After reading through this document I can see that not only was cryptocurrency not a random mistake, but even Monero was a dream long sought after by the greatest minds on the planet.  What does that mean?  It means to get ready, because this thing is slowly coming together in a big way.

heres a great post I found on reddit exactly about this:

The thing is that most Bitcoin infrastructure is running away from killer apps at warp speed, in the whole rush to be AML/KYC compliant. Enough influential people are actually relying on Bitcoin's traceability that the traceability is very unlikely to ever be fixed.
Anonymity and privacy are important in a LOT of places. They mean that a lot more people have access to economic exchange, over a lot more of the world, with a lot fewer gatekeepers saying who can buy and sell and what they can buy and sell. And that's the thing that makes crypto currencies interesting.
But a lot of the gatekeepers are legal authorities with considerable public support on their side. That means that any actually interesting new means of exchange is going to piss off the Man, period. And the well funded players in Bitcoin aren't interested in doing that.
Without the Silk Road et al, which were enabled by very limited anonymity, nobody except a few monetary cranks would ever have given a damn about Bitcoin. But Bitcoin is running away from that.
Furthermore, even in perfectly "legitimate" uses, fungibility is critical, and you don't get fungibility with a traceable currency. So Bitcoin is self-sabotaging even for the cases it's trying to address.
Basically Bitcoin is only covering applications that are already perfectly well served by fiat and banks, leaving all the actual crypto currency applications on the table, and sucking up into a giant Chicago-school delusional ball.
That leaves a vacuum for Monero and other privacy currencies to fill. Once the Bitcoin spying infrastructure is fully in place, a lot of people are going to realize they're unserved by Bitcoin.

These posts do a great deal to explain why so many OG Bitcoiners are excited about Monero.  You both get an A+ in Nerd History!   

Here's your next reading assignment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machinery_of_Freedom

Suggested essay topic: If Bitcoin and Monero are indeed Phase 1 and 2, is Ethereum Pretty Good^TM enough for Freidman's Phase 3 in the context of the following Szabo quote?

         Anybody who
         thinks they can flesh out a protocol in secret and then
         deploy it, full-blown and working, is in for a world of
         hurt.  For those who get their Pretty Good systems out
         there and used, there is vast potential for business growth
         -- think of the $trillions confiscated every year by
         governments around the world, for example." [Nick Szabo,
         1993-8-23] 

For extra credit, explain why or why not the cypherpunk conception of "crypto-anarchy" is distinct from the libertarian idea "radical capitalism."   

[newb4now]

When I heard about Monero, I did not "worry" about Bitcoin.

(should have...  )

Maybe in the long run, but we are not there yet

[rpietila]

When I heard about Monero, I did not "worry" about Bitcoin.

(should have...  )

Maybe in the long run, but we are not there yet

My cryptic text should be understood as:

"When I heard about and invested into Monero, I did not have any worries that the value of my much larger BTC stash would be affected. What happened, though, is that it has declined 60% since then, probably due to the very things that Monero fixes (anonymity, fungibility, blocksize). Also I never thought BTC would have caused silver price decline, but from hindsight it seems to be the case."

[smoothie]

When I heard about Monero, I did not "worry" about Bitcoin.

(should have...  )

Maybe in the long run, but we are not there yet

My cryptic text should be understood as:

"When I heard about and invested into Monero, I did not have any worries that the value of my much larger BTC stash would be affected. What happened, though, is that it has declined 60% since then, probably due to the very things that Monero fixes (anonymity, fungibility, blocksize). Also I never thought BTC would have caused silver price decline, but from hindsight it seems to be the case."

What makes you think Bitcoin has decline because of the lack of privacy that monero has?

Specific example?

[rpietila]

When I heard about Monero, I did not "worry" about Bitcoin.

(should have...  )

Maybe in the long run, but we are not there yet

My cryptic text should be understood as:

"When I heard about and invested into Monero, I did not have any worries that the value of my much larger BTC stash would be affected. What happened, though, is that it has declined 60% since then, probably due to the very things that Monero fixes (anonymity, fungibility, blocksize). Also I never thought BTC would have caused silver price decline, but from hindsight it seems to be the case."

What makes you think Bitcoin has decline because of the lack of privacy that monero has?

Specific example?

Trends are not specific examples. Despite technically knowing the facts (which have not changed), using Bitcoin in 2013 felt like "good, I am striking the controllers back and using my own decentralized money the way I want, and they cannot even know". Now it feels more like "nah, again I am touching this totally-monitored big brother system, which happens to be the best medium for this exchange since it is [enter BTC's advantages here]".

Using bitcoin is not fun (any more) due to lack of fungibility.

Using Monero is fun.

Using CK is __________

This is not by accident.

[binaryFate]

Trends are not specific examples. Despite technically knowing the facts (which have not changed), using Bitcoin in 2013 felt like "good, I am striking the controllers back and using my own decentralized money the way I want, and they cannot even know". Now it feels more like "nah, again I am touching this totally-monitored big brother system, which happens to be the best medium for this exchange since it is [enter BTC's advantages here]".

Using bitcoin is not fun (any more) due to lack of fungibility.

Using Monero is fun.

Using CK is __________

This is not by accident.

So true, just look at the bitcointalk/reddit posts from 2011-2013, it was all about "anonymous instant internet money". The feeling has changed a lot since then, but since it's a slow continous change (trend being the correct word, risto is right) most users didn't realize they were basing their usage on a completely false promise.

Nothing has changed in Bitcoin of course, it's simply that the perception is becoming more accurate with respect to the actual characteristics.
 

[dEBRUYNE]

Trends are not specific examples. Despite technically knowing the facts (which have not changed), using Bitcoin in 2013 felt like "good, I am striking the controllers back and using my own decentralized money the way I want, and they cannot even know". Now it feels more like "nah, again I am touching this totally-monitored big brother system, which happens to be the best medium for this exchange since it is [enter BTC's advantages here]".

Using bitcoin is not fun (any more) due to lack of fungibility.

Using Monero is fun.

Using CK is __________

This is not by accident.

So true, just look at the bitcointalk/reddit posts from 2011-2013, it was all about "anonymous instant internet money". The feeling has changed a lot since then, but since it's a slow continous change (trend being the correct word, risto is right) most users didn't realize they were basing their usage on a completely false promise.

Nothing has changed in Bitcoin of course, it's simply that the perception is becoming more accurate with respect to the actual characteristics.
 

Great comment. I dug up a comment from reddit that's pretty attributable to this particular situation:

Any bitcoin transaction with a party that knows your identity leaks information that can be used to identify your activity, past and future, on the block chain. For example, if you transfer bitcoins to an online retailer, an exchange, or many of the other services that take customer identity information, you allow them to link that identity to your blockchain pseudonym, potentially revealing the other transactions that you are party to.

[smoothie]

When I heard about Monero, I did not "worry" about Bitcoin.

(should have...  )

Maybe in the long run, but we are not there yet

My cryptic text should be understood as:

"When I heard about and invested into Monero, I did not have any worries that the value of my much larger BTC stash would be affected. What happened, though, is that it has declined 60% since then, probably due to the very things that Monero fixes (anonymity, fungibility, blocksize). Also I never thought BTC would have caused silver price decline, but from hindsight it seems to be the case."

What makes you think Bitcoin has decline because of the lack of privacy that monero has?

Specific example?

Trends are not specific examples. Despite technically knowing the facts (which have not changed), using Bitcoin in 2013 felt like "good, I am striking the controllers back and using my own decentralized money the way I want, and they cannot even know". Now it feels more like "nah, again I am touching this totally-monitored big brother system, which happens to be the best medium for this exchange since it is [enter BTC's advantages here]".

Using bitcoin is not fun (any more) due to lack of fungibility.

Using Monero is fun.

Using CK is __________

This is not by accident.

It is funny how your description of your own inner monologue is pretty much the same as mine.

[owm123]

So true, just look at the bitcointalk/reddit posts from 2011-2013, it was all about "anonymous instant internet money". The feeling has changed a lot since then, but since it's a slow continous change (trend being the correct word, risto is right) most users didn't realize they were basing their usage on a completely false promise.

Nothing has changed in Bitcoin of course, it's simply that the perception is becoming more accurate with respect to the actual characteristics.
 

Great comment. I dug up a comment from reddit that's pretty attributable to this particular situation:

Any bitcoin transaction with a party that knows your identity leaks information that can be used to identify your activity, past and future, on the block chain. For example, if you transfer bitcoins to an online retailer, an exchange, or many of the other services that take customer identity information, you allow them to link that identity to your blockchain pseudonym, potentially revealing the other transactions that you are party to.

Now its just the beginning of bitcoin forensic companies, blockchain research and surveillance. It is  only going to get worse if bitcoin is going mainstream. Bitcion devs and community probably has already too much invested in bitcoin, as to go away from the transparency and mainstream push. They need to please regulators and investors.

If monero would be at the position of bitcoin, it would have to do same. It would have to please regulators. Even if feds or governments made mandatory to give up your view keys to them or to banks, then at least a random monero forensic company, research or online shop, would have much, much more difficult task of identifying your transactions in the blockchain.

But then off course, some people would not like to give up their view keys to anyone, and would move to  another new anon coin, and the circle would repeat it self.

[smoothie]

So true, just look at the bitcointalk/reddit posts from 2011-2013, it was all about "anonymous instant internet money". The feeling has changed a lot since then, but since it's a slow continous change (trend being the correct word, risto is right) most users didn't realize they were basing their usage on a completely false promise.

Nothing has changed in Bitcoin of course, it's simply that the perception is becoming more accurate with respect to the actual characteristics.
 

Great comment. I dug up a comment from reddit that's pretty attributable to this particular situation:

Any bitcoin transaction with a party that knows your identity leaks information that can be used to identify your activity, past and future, on the block chain. For example, if you transfer bitcoins to an online retailer, an exchange, or many of the other services that take customer identity information, you allow them to link that identity to your blockchain pseudonym, potentially revealing the other transactions that you are party to.

Now its just the beginning of bitcoin forensic companies, blockchain research and surveillance. It is  only going to get worse if bitcoin is going mainstream. Bitcion devs and community probably has already too much invested in bitcoin, as to go away from the transparency and mainstream push. They need to please regulators and investors.

If monero would be at the position of bitcoin, it would have to do same. It would have to please regulators. Even if feds or governments made mandatory to give up your view keys to them or to banks, then at least a random monero forensic company, research or online shop, would have much, much more difficult task of identifying your transactions in the blockchain.

But then off course, some people would not like to give up their view keys to anyone, and would move to  another new anon coin, and the circle would repeat it self.

Either that or more likely people would just boycott a particular service that wants them to disclose their view keys and transact elsewhere?

[XMRChina]

So true, just look at the bitcointalk/reddit posts from 2011-2013, it was all about "anonymous instant internet money". The feeling has changed a lot since then, but since it's a slow continous change (trend being the correct word, risto is right) most users didn't realize they were basing their usage on a completely false promise.

Nothing has changed in Bitcoin of course, it's simply that the perception is becoming more accurate with respect to the actual characteristics.
 

Great comment. I dug up a comment from reddit that's pretty attributable to this particular situation:

Any bitcoin transaction with a party that knows your identity leaks information that can be used to identify your activity, past and future, on the block chain. For example, if you transfer bitcoins to an online retailer, an exchange, or many of the other services that take customer identity information, you allow them to link that identity to your blockchain pseudonym, potentially revealing the other transactions that you are party to.

Now its just the beginning of bitcoin forensic companies, blockchain research and surveillance. It is  only going to get worse if bitcoin is going mainstream. Bitcion devs and community probably has already too much invested in bitcoin, as to go away from the transparency and mainstream push. They need to please regulators and investors.

If monero would be at the position of bitcoin, it would have to do same. It would have to please regulators. Even if feds or governments made mandatory to give up your view keys to them or to banks, then at least a random monero forensic company, research or online shop, would have much, much more difficult task of identifying your transactions in the blockchain.

But then off course, some people would not like to give up their view keys to anyone, and would move to  another new anon coin, and the circle would repeat it self.

Either that or more likely people would just boycott a particular service that wants them to disclose their view keys and transact elsewhere?

Remember that having more than one view key is possible. You can have more than one account.

[opennux]

So true, just look at the bitcointalk/reddit posts from 2011-2013, it was all about "anonymous instant internet money". The feeling has changed a lot since then, but since it's a slow continous change (trend being the correct word, risto is right) most users didn't realize they were basing their usage on a completely false promise.

Nothing has changed in Bitcoin of course, it's simply that the perception is becoming more accurate with respect to the actual characteristics.
 

Great comment. I dug up a comment from reddit that's pretty attributable to this particular situation:

Any bitcoin transaction with a party that knows your identity leaks information that can be used to identify your activity, past and future, on the block chain. For example, if you transfer bitcoins to an online retailer, an exchange, or many of the other services that take customer identity information, you allow them to link that identity to your blockchain pseudonym, potentially revealing the other transactions that you are party to.

Now its just the beginning of bitcoin forensic companies, blockchain research and surveillance. It is  only going to get worse if bitcoin is going mainstream. Bitcion devs and community probably has already too much invested in bitcoin, as to go away from the transparency and mainstream push. They need to please regulators and investors.

If monero would be at the position of bitcoin, it would have to do same. It would have to please regulators. Even if feds or governments made mandatory to give up your view keys to them or to banks, then at least a random monero forensic company, research or online shop, would have much, much more difficult task of identifying your transactions in the blockchain.

But then off course, some people would not like to give up their view keys to anyone, and would move to  another new anon coin, and the circle would repeat it self.

Either that or more likely people would just boycott a particular service that wants them to disclose their view keys and transact elsewhere?

Shouldn't we see that in bitcion then? I mean, people keep using coinbase and all those other services that deny random transactions.

But XMRchina is right. You can have several view keys, if a service wants to see it.

[owm123]

So true, just look at the bitcointalk/reddit posts from 2011-2013, it was all about "anonymous instant internet money". The feeling has changed a lot since then, but since it's a slow continous change (trend being the correct word, risto is right) most users didn't realize they were basing their usage on a completely false promise.

Nothing has changed in Bitcoin of course, it's simply that the perception is becoming more accurate with respect to the actual characteristics.
 

Great comment. I dug up a comment from reddit that's pretty attributable to this particular situation:

Any bitcoin transaction with a party that knows your identity leaks information that can be used to identify your activity, past and future, on the block chain. For example, if you transfer bitcoins to an online retailer, an exchange, or many of the other services that take customer identity information, you allow them to link that identity to your blockchain pseudonym, potentially revealing the other transactions that you are party to.

Now its just the beginning of bitcoin forensic companies, blockchain research and surveillance. It is  only going to get worse if bitcoin is going mainstream. Bitcion devs and community probably has already too much invested in bitcoin, as to go away from the transparency and mainstream push. They need to please regulators and investors.

If monero would be at the position of bitcoin, it would have to do same. It would have to please regulators. Even if feds or governments made mandatory to give up your view keys to them or to banks, then at least a random monero forensic company, research or online shop, would have much, much more difficult task of identifying your transactions in the blockchain.

But then off course, some people would not like to give up their view keys to anyone, and would move to  another new anon coin, and the circle would repeat it self.

Either that or more likely people would just boycott a particular service that wants them to disclose their view keys and transact elsewhere?

If monero would become fully regulated, e.g. each online shop accepting monero needs to get your view key and personal data, than there is not much to boycott. Its already happening with bitcoin and bitlicence in usa.
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2014/10/beware-bitlicense-new-yorks-virtual-currency-regulations-invade-privacy-and-hamper