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@jjg...i have a middle school classmate...no matter how many times he was told something, he kept insisting on his follies.
Not sure what become of him now...probably nothing...I have seen the guy at the 10 year school reunion a while ago...he did not change much.
C'est la vie.
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Only a person with no significant btc, like yourself, would love it.
That, and you're are pulling your numbers out of air.
Why 90% and not 89 or 95%?
Theres no absolute truth in traded prices especially during excessive volatility. I think the point you might have missed there is referring to a spike or flash sale, a very low register for BTC which was not actually correct. It usually would mark a bottom, clear the short orders out and those who had been negative, a V bottom whatever you want to call it. be Some prices end up just traded wrongly, a fat finger order or whatever but not all prices are equally valid and perfectly defined at that time. In BTC market especially there must always be a quoted price every day of the year and at every hour it can mean markets guess incorrectly & I think this can apply on every time scale to some extent. Most easily observable during major holiday when the price can wander in either direction and become incorrect relative to the wider market as some participants who would trade arent there. I wouldnt argue about it especially but its known phenomena so far as I know, any price at all can register for a moment in extremis no matter how silly sure, a flush down can happen, but you can't predict the value in that. in this particular case, though, it is clear that he is just talking his book: all cash and no coins (almost). |
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looks like we are heading for 15.9 again
I would love to see a true dump say 7-9k.
69k down to 7k is 90%
maybe by thanksgiving.
Only a person with no any significant btc, like yourself, would love it. That, and you're are pulling your numbers out of air. Why 90% and not 89 or 95%? I sold off most of my coins months ago. Was mocked here for a cash and bond position. Now I will do okay with btc dropping. It is not like I did not share this opinion before this crash. Opinions are just like assholes...everyone got one. |
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looks like we are heading for 15.9 again
I would love to see a true dump say 7-9k.
69k down to 7k is 90%
maybe by thanksgiving.
Only a person with no significant btc, like yourself, would love it. That, and you're are pulling your numbers out of air. Why 90% and not 89 or 95%? |
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What was the largest dip in anything that was then recovered above the prior ATH?
Here are my recollections (sorry, some utterances will be shitcoins just for their historical record):
1. AMZN, went down 95% in 2000-2001, went way up the prior ATH, took 7-8 years.
2. GME, down 95% between 2008 and 2020, then 116X.
3. AMC, down 94% between 2015 and 2020, then 28X.
4. TLRY, first long dip 97.5%, then 17X up (did not reach the ATH), then another 96% down (total down from the ATH to ATL was 98.1%), we shall see how it goes.
2. AAPL went down 82.5% between 1991 and 1998 (that bear seemed endless), got rescued by S. Jobs, now a biggest company (or one of top three).
3. ETH (see the disclaimer above) went down 95% inside 2018, ATH in 2021, 59X from the low.
4. ADA (see the same disclaimer) went down 98.4% in 2017-2020, new ath in 2021, 150X from the low.
I have never seen something/anything that declined more then 99% (not counting oil futures going to negative value) coming back to exceed the ATH, but would be interested if such situation existed.
Apart from ADA, 95% seems to be the most "something" declined before reaching a new ATH.
What i am getting at: at $1000 (someone suggested this number as a remote possibility), it would be about 98.5% down. 95% would be $3445, a match to march 2020 "mindrust wick"
If less than that 98.5-99%, then there are no records to suggest that recovery is possible (it appears to never happen before, unless you can find such record, without counting bankruptcy cases).
So, crying would be kind of appropriate, as in crying for ALL of humanity, imho, not just bitcoin (at or below $1000).
Besides your shitcoin talk..  I hope in relation to SBF, bro. "if you prick us, do we not bleed?" you cannot learn everything there is to learn about bitcoin by talking only about bitcoin. Example: FTX debacle is outsize of btc domain, mostly, yet it keeps affecting it...just look at your wallet. |
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Thought of letting y'all know... I lost a lot at FTX. Like really, A LOT. For a long long time, I won't be in a position to re-enter BTC. I'm so done.
"Not your keys, not your coins"
At the end of the day, I think y'all outperformed me. It'd not have happened if it weren't for Sam, though. But... whatever.
Sorry for your loss. At least you learnt something. Also, King bitcoin is a different breed: "There is Bitcoin, then there is Crypto". There is no loss here, as you have learn a very useful lesson. Since we are on-topic, let me shill a thread of mine on this matter: FTX drama and it’s long term consequences: Bitcoin is a confidence GameI agree with the thoughts that bitcoin will come to the forefront, but the term "confidence game" is not really proper, i am afraid. Why? Because it harks back to "confidence man" otherwise known as "conman". Not a good term. |
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OK... I obviously do not mind sharing crazy opinions... so here's another.
We are standing on the threshold of the MOTHER of all short squeezes.
I just do not know how long it takes to cross that threshold. Could be longer than some of us have... could be faster than we would possibly expect.
You know what to do.
well, share the evidence for such upcoming squeeze. or, is it just a feeling? I don't feel any such thing at the moment, but don't feel bearish either. |
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Thought of letting y'all know... I lost a lot at FTX. Like really, A LOT. For a long long time, I won't be in a position to re-enter BTC. I'm so done.
"Not your keys, not your coins"
At the end of the day, I think y'all outperformed me. It'd not have happened if it weren't for Sam, though. But... whatever.
Man, this truly sucks, sorry for your loss. The sad thing about it, it feels like we all are on a endless minefield. Or call it entropy, perhaps. No matter how you try, you'll be blown up in eventuality. If not on exchange, then because of some law change, $5 wrench, or because someone will hack Ledger, trezor, etc, or when suddenly, SHA 256 goes down. The last one is probably farther away and arguably, could be cured. |
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What was the largest dip in anything that was then recovered above the prior ATH?
Here are my recollections (sorry, some utterances will be shitcoins just for their historical record):
1. AMZN, went down 95% in 2000-2001, went way up the prior ATH, took 7-8 years.
2. GME, down 95% between 2008 and 2020, then 116X.
3. AMC, down 94% between 2015 and 2020, then 28X.
4. TLRY, first long dip 97.5%, then 17X up (did not reach the ATH), then another 96% down (total down from the ATH to ATL was 98.1%), we shall see how it goes.
2. AAPL went down 82.5% between 1991 and 1998 (that bear seemed endless), got rescued by S. Jobs, now a biggest company (or one of top three).
3. ETH (see the disclaimer above) went down 95% inside 2018, ATH in 2021, 59X from the low.
4. ADA (see the same disclaimer) went down 98.4% in 2017-2020, new ath in 2021, 150X from the low.
I have never seen something/anything that declined more then 99% (not counting oil futures going to negative value) coming back to exceed the ATH, but would be interested if such situation existed.
Apart from ADA, 95% seems to be the most "something" declined before reaching a new ATH.
What i am getting at: at $1000 (someone suggested this number as a remote possibility), it would be about 98.5% down. 95% would be $3445, a match to march 2020 "mindrust wick"
If less than that 98.5-99%, then there are no records to suggest that recovery is possible (it appears to never happen before, unless you can find such record, without counting bankruptcy cases).
So, crying would be kind of appropriate, as in crying for ALL of humanity, imho, not just bitcoin (at or below $1000).
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In a large picture, I am not surprised.
All those "financial" people know is fractional reserve system, which is a norm for banks, so they try to apply the same for bitcoin and etc., thinking that they are protected by the same "confidence" as tradfi.
At some point, when this got exposed, I assume that they tried to 'fix' the situation via direct inappropriate funds transfer, but the goose was already cooked.
Now, some are probably trying the outright stealing (hacks, inappropriate transfers, etc, etc.).
I am not sure where it will all end.
However, we need liquidity for bitcoin to cash conversion, but if there is no liquidity on any exchange, this could become problematic.
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So ...
Just flow with me here for a sec... What if this whole FTX thing was really a set-up. Powers that be come in... got SB-F hooked on SOMETHING. Have you seen the videos of him vibrating like a diesel engine? Then start making less and less veiled threats 'till they set up the collapse. Have legislation ready in the countries they control to try to bring the whole thing down over a few weeks...
Nah. Just a ponzi prolly.
[  ] Also this. https://www.weforum.org/organizations/ftxAll these lenders/exchanges fail one after another. I wouldn't be too surprised, if setting up (some of) these companies just to pull the plug afterwards was an attack of tptb. We are in an era of covert wars so it would fit the zeitgeist. So few see it still... which makes me fear we are doomed. Almost no one realizes we are ~50 years into WWIII. But it's getting pretty heavy now. The next few years will be interesting if nothing else. ..because we aren't, perhaps? I don't think you know how WWIII would really look like. Appearently you don't as you don't recognize it while je does. Covert operations are hip, they are actually getting more and more overt (as it's more and more obvious) but the plebis is more and more compliant. Not sure that I get what you are talking about...let's just agree to call apples and oranges appropriate names and not mix them up. What this has to do with "plebs"? The notion that we are at WWIII for 50 years sounds so improbable that not much explanation is required, really, as it is self-evident. People call WWars when a a large scale kinetic warfare occurs at multiple sites over the globe simultaneously with at least dozens of countries involved, tens of millions (or more) eventually dead. Where was THAT in the last 50 years? |
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So ...
Just flow with me here for a sec... What if this whole FTX thing was really a set-up. Powers that be come in... got SB-F hooked on SOMETHING. Have you seen the videos of him vibrating like a diesel engine? Then start making less and less veiled threats 'till they set up the collapse. Have legislation ready in the countries they control to try to bring the whole thing down over a few weeks...
Nah. Just a ponzi prolly.
[ ] Also this. https://www.weforum.org/organizations/ftxAll these lenders/exchanges fail one after another. I wouldn't be too surprised, if setting up (some of) these companies just to pull the plug afterwards was an attack of tptb. We are in an era of covert wars so it would fit the zeitgeist. So few see it still... which makes me fear we are doomed. Almost no one realizes we are ~50 years into WWIII. But it's getting pretty heavy now. The next few years will be interesting if nothing else. ..because we aren't, perhaps? I don't think you know how WWIII would really look like. |
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well, the twitter source put MtGox in a wrong spot (it collapsed in Feb 2014), but otherwise, an interesting thought. |
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I did not know who you were talking about back then...i do know now, thanks much wow |
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All these lenders/exchanges fail one after another. I wouldn't be too surprised, if setting up (some of) these companies just to pull the plug afterwards was an attack of tptb. We are in an era of covert wars so it would fit the zeitgeist.
I don't think so. This space attracts some incredibly greedy and stupid motherfuckers; their levels of these qualities shouldn't be underestimated. They may be smart when it comes to handling money and mastering deceptive practices but are too dumb to realize karma is a real phenomenon. dats me, apparently  ...well, apart from using anybody else's money |
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Why did anyone trust that guy in the first place? I mean his name is "Bankman". Didn't THAT give it away?!  I would focus on 'fried'  More seriously, though, if you ever played on exchanges/yield providers, your chances to be intact are pretty low after: 1. MtGox 2. Bitfinex 3. BTC-e 4. Celsius 5. FTX 6. various defi hacks 7. ... However, I am a bit miffed about the fact that M. Saylor went on huge margin buying all that btc, even though he says that his liquidation price is very low. He should have bought half. |
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