I can explain the whole Celcius business model in less than 5 minutes to anyone that doesnt know anything about crypto. ...(apt explanation)...
All the insiders sold and made bank
A couple years back I had a job writing for one of the top 3 crypto news websites. One day my asshole editor tells me I'm doing an interview with Alex Mashinsky (Celsius CEO) for a story, gear up. The subject of the story is to be about how an "independent research firm" puts Celsius' valuation 3x higher than its previous assessment. I do a bit of background research and find out said research firm is heavily invested in Celsius. Additional research into Maskinsky's claims about being the inventor of this and that technology (all bogus) lead me to suspect he's a sociopath douche. I bring this up to my editor and tell him I don't feel comfortable doing the interview or writing the story. He says write it or you're fired. Two days later I'm fired. Fast-forward two years: the editor has been a heavy supporter of Mashinsky and customer of Celsius. He lost everything he put in there. When all the shit went down earlier this year I was tempted to write him a "ha-ha-told-you-so"-type email or expose him publicly, but I never did. I reckon its ultimately not necessary, but can't help but wonder if he remembers me. An interesting story...Texas actually sued Celsius and thinking that they would probably prevent state inhabitants from participating probably saved my hide with respect to Celsius. I was 'hungry" for yield in 2020-2021 and could have lost a bit there, but didn't. Or, maybe it was a little doubt, I cannot really recall. Same happened with Mt. Gox in late 2013...never bought anything there, just did not feel right. |
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"Satoshi Nakamoto wrote about a new way to move value on the internet. Nakamoto — we still don’t know who she, he, or they were — didn’t have faith in the financial sector overseen by folks like us, sitting around this table"
> Chairman of the SEC
He is simply positioning for the Treasury sec job, me thinks. |
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"The One"..."most expensive" house in US... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEJO5s29AhcWho knows, maybe someone who "ate" LUNA can afford it, lol. Maybe a first block of a future Citadel....eventually. BTW, seller/developer claimed it to be worth $500 mil, then tried to get $295 mil, end up selling for $126 mil+12% commish ($141 mil). |
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I wonder how much contagion Credit Suisse becoming a power-bottom is going to cause...
They all seem to play the same game...maybe others are a bit stressed as well. Some predict a bottom at S&P at 3500 (close), others are more pessimistic. So far, bitcoin held the line. Will it continue? Hopefully. |
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Saylor's buying, so you can be sure the price absolutely will not sustain itself above $20k. We'll be below $19k next week as the world continues to offload this particularly useless risk asset in the midst of a financial crisis that only fiat can save us from. Hop on the USD lifeboat before it's too late.
USD lifeboat: dude that shit may stink but it does float. all us citizens should be grabbing us savings bonds type I right now. let proudhon lead the way. rumors are they are thinking of making it 30K/year/person, so a family could have 60K (plus potentially up to 5K from tax refunds). Not bad... |
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I guess I would have to move up from one to two cups a day and add one decaf  |
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ALL of them either don't know what they are doing or cannot predict the consequence of their actions, imho. Considering BOE move, i just cannot see 75bp at the next FED meeting, especially if October inflation readings will be benign. If they try 75, I believe that the markets would teach them a lesson. Something would become broken and they would be also forced to do an "invervention" and that point ALL credibility would be lost. At which point people en masse would start figuring out that bitcoin has a monetary policy that could be relied on? I am still waiting...and waiting. |
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It's becoming quite scandalous, considering that Barry is still collecting his 2% on a yearly basis. |
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ha ha...at first I did not get it.. ..it is is not as bad in the states (so far), "only" 40-50% increase in my electricity bill, nat gas is still not much in use with temp about 33-34C in H-town. |
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If we remain unbiased, what's the most rational probability that we already have the bottom on BTC ?
Based on :
- We are only at 10% (down) from the actual bottom (17.6K$)
- Didn't see any REAL and CONVINCED bounce since 69K ATH (no Jayjay... quick bounce at 25K$ for such small time, i dont call this a bounce).Just need to unscroll the chart and it's looks so obv.
- I know some here are not agree on it regarding the macro situation, but please.. the probability we have the bottom on the SPX, NASDAQ or other are very low right now. If we go -10% - 20% (mean the SP500 at 3000), so most probably even more down on the Nasdaq100..
What's happen on BTC ? We should be virgin to think BTC will hold 17.6K on these very probable situation (and usually more downward on BTC).
It's clearly not a thing I want to see (except of keeping buying every 1K$ down on BTC from 15Kish), but we really should be prepare to this situation and maybe see temporarily 10K$ (or less?) if these levels happen on SPX and cie.
Based on that I see less than 10% we have the bottom on BTC now.
I don't think that you can reliably predict what is going to happen. Why? Because many factors are in play. If FED causes ANOTHER 15-30% decline in the stock market by their whim (arbitrarily), Wall Street would get very mad at them (like this, but 10 times louder: https://twitter.com/i/status/1573387150338433025) as the the whole calamity would be caused by their wrong policies. Additionally, if the world moves toward a large scale conflict, expect interest rates for be fixed at some low level , like they were in WW2 (it was 3/8% then or about 0.375%) and that would mean "printing". This rising interest rates is a 'fake", unsustainable move, imho. I didn't say i can predict, I'm just trying to find a direction with impartiality, regarding the actual global situation. It's not only about BTC. I didn't say that the FED can maintain this for long time, but still for some months (and continue to increase the interest rates till 4? 4.5? 5?). Even on the best case of 4, there is still time for another drop. And reasonably, probability are much more higher that BTC will drop much lower if Stocks continue to fall even for "only" 10 or 20%. It's correlated, that's a fact, until now. Here is one possibility..say, October inflation readings are low (due to a large drop in the price of oil). Suddenly, market would switch to a "bullish" 50 points (0.5%) rate hike and bear market would be essentially over. Could it happen? maybe..i give this scenario a 30% chance. |
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If we remain unbiased, what's the most rational probability that we already have the bottom on BTC ?
Based on :
- We are only at 10% (down) from the actual bottom (17.6K$)
- Didn't see any REAL and CONVINCED bounce since 69K ATH (no Jayjay... quick bounce at 25K$ for such small time, i dont call this a bounce).Just need to unscroll the chart and it's looks so obv.
- I know some here are not agree on it regarding the macro situation, but please.. the probability we have the bottom on the SPX, NASDAQ or other are very low right now. If we go -10% - 20% (mean the SP500 at 3000), so most probably even more down on the Nasdaq100..
What's happen on BTC ? We should be virgin to think BTC will hold 17.6K on these very probable situation (and usually more downward on BTC).
It's clearly not a thing I want to see (except of keeping buying every 1K$ down on BTC from 15Kish), but we really should be prepare to this situation and maybe see temporarily 10K$ (or less?) if these levels happen on SPX and cie.
Based on that I see less than 10% we have the bottom on BTC now.
I don't think that you can reliably predict what is going to happen. Why? Because many factors are in play. If FED causes ANOTHER 15-30% decline in the stock market by their whim (arbitrarily), Wall Street would get very mad at them (like this, but 10 times louder: https://twitter.com/i/status/1573387150338433025) as the the whole calamity would be caused by their wrong policies. Additionally, if the world moves toward a large scale conflict, expect interest rates to be fixed at some low level , like they were in WW2 (it was 3/8% then or about 0.375%) and that would mean "printing". The rising interest rates is a 'fake", unsustainable move, imho. |
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2021 was particularly wimpy for the last bull year of the cycle. A possible explanation: market started anticipating a rapid tightening by the Fed. Notably, all large tech turned down almost at the same time despite high profits. |
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Is pound edging to dollar parity?
Would it be a first?
Currently below prior 1.10 low in 1985.
Things seem to move fast these days.
Waiting for the sustained upward move in btc, which might come by the end of Q1 2023, imho.
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DXY ($ index)-a big winner this year (so far) +15% (more if you had an interest bearing account).
Compare with -21.6% for S&P 500 (yes i know, even worse than this for bitcoin).
Cash is king...for now (still hodling, though, like a stubborn person I am).
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The regular money is not real, but bitcoin is real.
I agree with most of what you have said except this. Regular money is real. At least till now. If not, Why do you Compare your Bitcoin with USD? Why this Wall Observer of BTC/USD? Well, I would say accept the existence of Real money. If there is no crowd and no one to rule. What is the benefit of being a king? Sorry, $20 bucks in my pocket are real this very moment as far as me buying a lunch with it, but the BIG money is not. Observe: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SLWhere the extra $5 trillions from Jan 2020 to Jan 2021 came from? From just arbitrarily writing a few numbers into the ledger, no doubt. Does this feel 'real' to you? Seems more like a fantasy of a feel-good illusion, which is now playing out in strange ways. |
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They keep saying...institutions, regulations, etc etc.
The regular money is not real, but bitcoin is real.
So it is understandable that people with fake money want to disparage "real money".
However, the "fake money people" have power.
It might take 40 years for that power to slowly seep from the "fake money" to "real money" and if it doesn't and they succeed in corrupting bitcoin, then the current fin system might not able to survive.
I am just going to 'hibernate' and wait; the trend should become visible in 10-20 years or so.
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but, but...where it's ALL going?
then...
last night's wordle was
very weak and kinda dumb
much disappointment
#haiku
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Partially OT...although I traded VB coin when it was profitable to do in the past, over the last 3-4 years I gravitated more and more toward an opinion similar to philipma's: VB coin turned out into an abomination (maybe it always was  ). I honestly don't see how it can succeed long term when there is no 'independence' mechanism there whatsoever. They can turn and twist their tokenomics any way they can and NOW Gary is chiming in with this snippet: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ethers-new-staking-model-could-draw-sec-attention-11663266224TL;DR securitaa...securitaaaaa.. Not sure what would happen with it's POW offshoot (that is coming tomorrow). Could be a gimmick or could provide a valuable lesson. IMHO, there is NO difference between fiat and POS VB coin..not even now, but most certainly not in the future. It all is up to bitcoin and if it fails (which I doubt), then it's all just history and we would be back to square one or worse, essentially. All pos coins are worse than fiat. they are essentially unregulated bonds. which is worse than fiat. back to btc can’t see an end to the end around us fed is doing with usa i bonds. all stable coins pegged to the us dollar are complete shit when compared to a usa I bond. every year 330 million people are allowed to buy 3.3 trillion dollars in I bonds. I bonds are pegged with perfection to the us dollar. thus all usd pegged stable coins are under constant pressure from I bonds. Since inflation did not drop and the new I bond number comes out on oct 1 it will be high again this means huge pressure against all stable coins pegged to the usd. since a lot of btc is purchased with exchange held stable coins which are a little more liquid then I bonds When and If someone is faced with keeping 10000 in a stable coin waiting to get btc or fuck it just buy 10 x 1000 I bonds I am thinking a lot of money is flowing into I bonds. hurting btc purchases. I dunno, I don't sneeze at a thousand bucks interest on a 10K investment in 12 mo (or a bit less soon), but did not go through the motions yet. I doubt that many of those 300 mil people are doing it. The conditions for this used to be better (with an extra % on the top of basically inflation). |
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Partially OT...although I traded VB coin when it was profitable to do in the past, over the last 3-4 years I gravitated more and more toward an opinion similar to philipma's: VB coin turned out into an abomination (maybe it always was ). I honestly don't see how it can succeed long term when there is no 'independence' mechanism there whatsoever. They can turn and twist their tokenomics any way they can and NOW Gary is chiming in with this snippet: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ethers-new-staking-model-could-draw-sec-attention-11663266224TL;DR securitaa...securitaaaaa.. Not sure what would happen with it's POW offshoot (that is coming tomorrow). Could be a gimmick or could provide a valuable lesson. IMHO, there is NO difference between fiat and POS VB coin..not even now, but most certainly not in the future. It all is up to bitcoin and if it fails (which I doubt), then it's all just history and we would be back to square one or worse, essentially. |
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