PTB wants bitcoin to look horrible during the weekend so people would think that stonks are "better' and support them on Monday.
It does not matter...i am not selling here. I am already in profit for this cycle.
If bitcoin goes low, I am going with it. I just want to be in it for the ride and see where it ends.
After all, experiences is all what we have.

I don't get his "whimpy" criteria with respect to myself (I guess because I don't DCA in principle).
I told him/her many times that I also mined before (had to stop a few mo ago) to no avail.
I am fine to be a strawman, though, sometimes it is even fun.

having said that @jjg is much better that the "other" one, especially lately.
Not sure what it is all about in the latter case, lol.
Maybe a social experiment like "poisoning the well"?

If bitcoin is destined to become worlds money (or digital gold at first), then this bear is where you have to buy the heck of it (not an advice).
I don't know where the bottom would be, but here are some numbers (from the daily closing top of 67566, not going to use 68-69K as it was intraday):

Currently: -70% at $20.4K (to me, it is enough considering that we did not spike, but bad markets could cause it not to be the ultimate bottom)
-80% at $13.5K (numerically, a typical bitcoin bear, but from the blow-off tops beforehand)
-90% at $6.8K
-95% at $3.4K
-90 and -95% are, of course, ridiculous and can only happen if the whole market would be in an absolute despair (like SP500 at 2000).

However, in an unfortunate situation of a deep dive it would clear the slate for a 20 year super-cycle, just like AMZN started it's supercycle after 95% decline in 2000-2001 (from $6 to $3700-a 620X in 20 years). Both bitcoin and AMZN are networks with progressively increasing numbers of customers, dominating their fields, so the dynamic could be comparable.

Several people propose that SP500 would bottom at the peak of inflation. Bitcoin should bottom slightly earlier because it is more forward looking (could be there already or in vicinity).
I will try to catch that bottom and if not, then something close to it.
I like this game better than DCAing blindly. To each their own.

ftfy

Even this is more entertaining:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbjzEkNM_YM

Gawd...AI training facility, formerly known as WO.
Get to the f-n point (if you have one) in a few phrases, please.
Chop-chop.

buying btc now is preferential to buying miners-I looked at the numbers.
Even at 5c/kwh you can get back miner's cost only in about 3 years (without even counting the tariff tax).
Miners need to basically lose 50% of the price to be investable.
Of course, mined bitcoin can appreciate and 'bail you out" in $$ terms, but, then, why not just buy btc?

I think that miners would start selling their accumulated bitcoin soon and some would switch off their equipment.
Taken together, it would mark the true bottom (does not have to be much lower because someone could be buying what they would be selling).

Either both approved (10% chance) or both rejected (90%).
The only reason for 10% is that many people in Congress are starting to get pissed off by Mr. G (or so it seems), so he might throw us/them a bone, so to speak.

Well, but something would be stabilizing...imagine how much interest Apple, Google, Berkshire would get on their cash?
Highly leveraged players might go bankrupt.
Nobody thinks that RE goes to be affected, but i don't see how it won't with 6.3% mortgages.
I see that defi and all "financial apps" on non-bitcoin would get crushed.
I see that bitcoin would act as savings...then as spending source..and that's it.
There would be no financialization as the financial house of cards just can't survive all those ups and downs (at some point).
Whether it is this cycle (of up and down interest rates) or not, it's hard to say.
Maybe penultimate.

I am not expecting this, but is it possible that they truly lost it?
We shall see.
Will 3.5-3.75 interest rate be enough by the EOY?

There is a nice video from Ben Cowen about inflation and stock market.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0fM5nlujp4

One thing that was informative is that seventies had three inflation spikes, followed by valleys, but the first one was smaller than our current spike, but it is entirely possible that it would work out like this (my speculation):

1. A current spike extending to EOY (inflation peaking maybe at 9, and probably below 10).
2. Markets at the lowest with inflation at the highest.
3. Decline in inflation (2023-2024) to 3.5-4% with stocks (and bitcoin) recovering and peaking in 2025 with bitcoin at 100K or slightly (20-40%) above and stocks within 5-10% of the prior peak (could be small ATH).
4. Second spike in inflation to 9-12% (maybe by 2026-2027). Fed rate at something currently unimaginable (maybe 5-7% or even higher), markets crushed again, but making higher lows (including btc). The bear cycle ends around 2028-2032 with prices still significantly higher than in 2026-2027.
5. Inflation finally going down, FED is easing profusely, a new secular bull market in everything (could last 20 years). Bitcoin cycles diminished, much smoother ride (for those who are still around).

would be nice if true going forward.

Casualties of this bear so far:

1. Terra/Luna
2. Celsius
3. 3AC
4. ?

no Lehman size yet and might not be.
See more about 3AC:
https://twitter.com/hodlKRYPTONITE/status/1536902115540742144
I also don't care for the actual entities, but this DID affect bitcoin, you are right about that.

within wide ranges and anonymously, sure, but I don't see the enthusiasm for it, so you (and nullius) are safe  

 yea, but then there is nothing to compare to.
you need two different units of measurement for a comparison (cars, food baskets, $, planets...)

Here is an 'interesting" suggestion re new poll on WO:

How much are you currently losing "on paper" from the ATH in your current bitcoin position (not counting the profit/loss from earlier sells)

1. less than $1K
2. between $1k and $10K
3. between $10K and 100K
3. between $100K and $1 mil
4. between $1mil and $10mil
5. between $10mil and $100mil
6. Above $100mil

Not sure if people would be honest in their answers, but am curious to see the spread anyway.
EDIT I also think that it is more interesting to measure from the ATH instead of the profit/loss since every individual buy price is different, but ATH is the same for everyone.

go on margin?
...sorry...too soon?

They say it's equal to 320,000 tons of refined Au, so more like 1%, but still, it's 2X of what was mined before (in ALL TIME).
P. Shiff is surely not happy.
Does it make Uganda the new Saudi Arabia? I doubt it.

Mr. Market is scratching it's proverbial head: "what can be a store of value"?
We already know the answer, not sure if and when they would agree en masse.
BTW, gold lost value recently, no surprise there.

Wow, mortgage is 6.28% compared with about 3.25% early in 2022.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/30-year-mortgage-rate-surges-to-6point28percent-up-from-5point5percent-just-a-week-ago.html

btc should start shining at some point, right?

Yea, this kind of moves are always very risky.
You can't predict where the turn would be.
In fact, saying that it was 21K does not make it so.
Seems a bit "artificial".
75 points are already 'priced' in. no way they would do only 50 now.
In 6 mo my cash lump would earn 4% more or less...woo hooo.
We shall see what the price would be during and after those 6 mo.

A thought occured: M. Saylor is a giant death_wish...sorry, pal.
wtf did he (M.S) got so much on margin?
Should have just bought in cash+ a little (or none) on margin.
Now, obviously WS 'wants' to liquidate his position as they always do with all margins.

There must be a player or players behind this and it all point to one in particular...
..Who was the person who said that bitcoin cannot do transactions recently?
Where did celsius funds go?
Make your own conclusions.