wow...what a hateful passive-aggressive comment.
at a loss what to make of it.

gawd, i need to slow down...can this one not count 

Honestly, if i see something like this in a men's bathroom, I would just smile and move on, albeit it is a bit ridiculous.
BTW, did you know that penis size has recently increased (apparently 24% since 1942)?
Check out those Renaissance sculptures...not much 'equipment' to talk about.

One thing almost no one is expecting:

In early-mid 2019 we did 4.45X from the low of $3.1K.
If the same repeats, 15.7KX4.45=69.89...boom, roughly equal to prior ATH....in 2023!

More realistically, 61.8% Fib recovery from 15.7K brings us to ((68.9-15.7)X0.618)+15.7=48.6K
Judging by current trajectory, I feel that 48.6K is more probable than not, and 68-69K-a long shot (in 2023).
In any case, it would probably decline somewhat from there and be at ~40K at the halving.

EDIT: Apparently, @dragonvslinux already posted these types of numbers on btctalk EARLIER (sorry, I did not check beforehand since i rarely look at the other threads these days):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5440568.0
he also have a nice graph there...

EOL, buddy

@jjg- "You are not really making any kind of special case that Lump sum is better than DCA, Biodom"

No special case needed, it was all in the graphs (shown in @bitebits original post) that are clearly in support of my argument.
From a practical point of view, i also know that i am right by just looking at numbers.
I told you my average buy price; that should be sufficient.

Re @phillipma1957 point about two periods: 2009-2017 and 2017-2023, I would call the first one a "LS" period, but the second was not DCA period, but rather BTFD period.
A simple strategy of looking for a ATH, then buying the "dip" with at least 70% discount would handily beat DCA in 2017-2023.

However, right now and during the last 6 -8mo, I had a feeling that later 2022-early 2023 was a start of another "LS" period going forward.
Buying via DCA would be vastly inferior from that time on (in my opinion, of course) vs a lump sum buy executed by dividing your 'lump' into three portions starting in the summer doldrums of 2022.

BTW, I consider only monotonous DCA a "true" DCA.
If you incorporate periodic BTFD and small lump sums, then it is clearly not DCA, but a mixed strategy.

With all due respect, you are just engaging in anecdote comparisons.
Look at the graphs and read the text in the original post here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg61777181#msg61777181

Your friend and Michael Saylor are just current exceptions (small % of all scenarios).
However, when btc trades at 250K, your friend would be sitting pretty vs small DCAers in between.
Same for M. Saylor, however, it is a special case since he went overboard (with loans) close to the top.
IF he only made that initial purchase at 17K, he would be in-the-money already.

@jjg..."Therefore, you have not addressed the issue.  $100 per week budget starting from January 2014.  When are you going to spend those building up $100 per week amounts?  What are your striking points for your various purchases over the past 470 weeks, starting from January 2014? "

Of course, if you are starting from essentially zero, then you invest the part of the cashflow.
However I was mostly talking about a hypothetical person who already have some capital and is willing to spend at least a significant portion of it.
In the latter case, as @bitebis had posted, LS almost always beats DCA, no ifs and buts.

Therefore, for those who have nothing, a way of doing it would be to raise a chunk of money first (however, it had better be done maybe 3-6 mo ago), then invest that in one go (or 1/3 per mo for three months) and THEN DCA.
However, that's just me and my approach.
Anything is better than staying at zero, you got that part right.

IMHO, however, people would tend to favor bitcoin when investing a "chunk" while the same people may waste money on itty-bitty "long shots" instead if investing in small increments (similar to lottery tickets).
One reason is purely psychological because you only get 0.004 btc for $100 while they consider getting 7 mil of some dog-related s-coin as "it's more units, man", which is completely erroneous, of course.
I would never do it, but people do it left and right.
Spending 5-25K at once (LS) gives you a more "tangible" amount of bitcoin and removes the distraction of the low value s-coins.
Sure, there could be a gambler who spends $5-25K on a s-coin, but I assume that those are a very small minority.

@jjg...you are posting pure nonsense.

@bitebits reference analyzed ALL scenarios and the conclusion is there:

"LS consistently outperforms DCA across all time periods, short term and long term.
The longer the time period, the more LS tends to outperform DCA."

You can't fight the math...but, of course, you will.

Hiding behind "normies" having no money, etc etc does not mean that what you peddle is correct.
"Normies" have money, and if they don't, they could even borrow some against some property if they want to get a lump sum.
I did it myself a couple times in the oughts.
In fact, we both know that my LS strategy vastly outperfomed your DCA.

Nice to see a formal verification of what I was casually talking about on multiple occasions.

Interesting...it was 2X beforehand...now, maybe 1.5X per your suggestion, later could be 1.25-1.35X (maybe after the this cycle peak?).
Amazon did 35% average during 25 years, bitcoin could do better.

If after matching the last ATH it would be 35% yearly average, I would be happy.
If it has to be from now on, OK for the next 3 years, then great.


a small correction...50%/year until maybe 2027(?), then 35%

16.70K                        Jan 23
25.05                         Jan 24 (feels bearish, but OK)
37.575                       Jan 25
56.3625                     Jan 26 (feels low, but it is about 1 tril market cap)
84.54375                   Jan 27 (start of x1.35 appreciation)
114.1340625              Jan 28
154.081                     Jan 29
208.01                       Jan 30
280.81260                  Jan 31
379.097                      Jan 32
511.781K                    Jan 33 (ten years, 10 tril market cap, close to current gold's mcap)

To me, this is quite possible, but it is also possible that as the rest of the "crypto" collapses, we rip up.

After megabull proundhon fooled everyone here for a while...and still does...from time to time...

I say...fooled me once....etc, etc (like George W used to say).

Same...remember it very well, watched it at least a couple of times (last time in the nineties), maybe will watch again.
Interestingly, the move was made for just £422,816.
Translating into today's it is 18.1241X422,816=£7,663,159 or about $9.2mil-quite low, but not crazy low price.
Cost 400K, made 8mil in box office...pretty good. Producers made 20X their money.
Avatar2 cost 2 bil (with rights, ads, etc), made $2.1-2.2 bil so far.
I think that I first saw it when I did not care about girls much, lol.
Movie was released in 1966 (US version in 1967), so unless you guys saw it much much later, I dunno...could be re-runs.

I dunno...in a game where people are crashing into each other and bodies are flying like bowling pins, somehow, a light barely visible touch was deemed a hold?
They obviously wanted to give it to Mahomes, don't know why. Want to build him up to be a new NFL superstar?
Sorry, I just check the youtube vid... not "my" sport.

You lost me there, pal
What check (or how british and former non-USA british empire members write it, cheque)?

I don't believe it...fully.
If they wanted to choke it, why put 'virtual currency' question in 1040?
You cannot get tax revenue of something you choked, lol.
Honestly, I don't even get why 'they' care?
But, after seeing a silly TikTok ban (and I don't even use it), I would not be completely surprised.

My take would be that they would want to channel bitcoin (and others) from the proverbial 'peons' to 'accredited investors', aka mostly institutions and wealthy individuals.
The probability of that might be high.

EDIT: btw, something "funky" occurred with Credit Suisse today. Check out that bank chart since 2007, lol.

@jjg...I have read your "dissertation" with interest.
Unfortunately, not much to add...price per is on the money, but cannot divulge the volume of buys.
I hate to spend btc, so it would probably become somewhat of a conundrum later.

Sometimes, I dream of a directed charity (as I posted before), other times maybe about a bequest to the extended family and/or a combination of both.
Unfortunately, my own children have shown to be incapable of having extra money so far: I made a limited 'experiment' with some stock donation with basically unsatisfactory results.
10% ..puff, gone (converted to cash, spent and just given to friends), in less than a year (maybe even 6 mo), with nothing valuable acquired as a result of that spending.
I guess, this is my fault as a parent and I will need to think about how to proceed further.

522X...I would dare to assume that it is four way split (or just "your" part)?...
That's one serious capital allocation..now btc would have to cooperate,  

About Dubai people are saying that it is good for doing business, but there is almost no "nature".
Good shopping, though, right?
I was checking out Thailand, but unlikely to go...their LTR visa is kind of bewildering (asking for a lot, providing very little, imho).
Thailand prices seem to be moving upwards very fast, too.
Additionally, as of right now, foreigners cannot own land, which means that buying a standalone property is basically a nonstarter (you would own the house, but not the land under it).

If I had a chunk of cash at the end of 2022 and wanted to eventually convert it in bitcoin, then I would have invested 1/3 right away (based on prior halving timing, yada, yada), and 2/3 later (within the next 10 mo).
If you don't have a "chunk" and instead invest a part of your cashflow, then, sure, DCA your heart out, but if you had that "chunk", then dcaing=mostly wasting your time.
What's wrong with bulk-buying btc with a >70% discount from the ATH instead of just tipping your toes in?
I haven't said anything about TRADING, well, maybe @dragonvslinux did, and it is for those with certain skills;
I am mostly focused on buying and less on selling.

Having three big "gulps" instead of just one allows for sudden macro situations a la March 2020.
This should work and I have a 'feeling' that some WO regs with extra fiat money are doing exactly this while being quiet until after they are satisfied with their new buying and content with their improved positions.