Why are you taking too much risk?
...You might be infected with a parasite...lol

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221125-wolves-emboldened-by-parasite-more-likely-to-lead-pack-study

Relax...true for wolves, unknown for people, but, apparently, 30-50% of people are infected by it.

A story: In 2007-2008 RE prices were collapsing and PTB probably 'engineered' a sharp spike in oil price to counteract and stave off deflation.
You can look at the oil charts back then, they are very informative (from $60 in Jan 2007 to $140 in June 2008).
If this thesis is correct and RE prices decline by at least 20% globally next year, this ought to put assets held by banks in a pickle, yet again.
They can't go the same route as in 07-08 (increasing energy prices) because right now it would favor the 'wrong' crowd, right?

So, which assets they will try to push up?
It can't be stocks or bonds because of high interest rates (assuming that they can't lower those yet).
Then what?
The only candidates from my perspective are PM (gold mostly) and bitcoin (maybe other coins as well).

yeah, but after 200wk was violated significantly, nobody really cares about any average anymore (on the downside).

Cathie Wood says that bitcoin would be $1mil by 2030:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/z3bcax/cathie_wood_says_bitcoin_will_be_worth_1_million/

First of all, when someone makes this kind of pronunciation during a vicious bear people might question their sanity.
It is a completely random statement. Why not 500K or 10mil?
2030 is not anything special either. In fact, according to usual cycles, it is a bear year.
I like when someone prognosticates about 2024-2025 because in those cases some rationality could be ascertained.
We cannot predict ANYTHING about 2030 because even tools like bond market are totally blind that far out: 18 mo ago 10 year bond yield was telling us a story about benign inflation, which completely changed in a year or so.

Current events are like a fast market: nothing can be predicted with certainty, which, btw, would result in lower stonk P/E...eventually.
I will repeat my feel for 2024-2025 btc at 77-150K max, but even those numbers are the projections of the prior trends and could be way off the mark.

I see what you did there....
A "Xhomerx paradox" no less.

no beer there..people are pissed
they bait and switch on the beer issue.

hey...
btc is up for the week (7d)....noice

FYI: bottom estimate

Historically, there is a significant bottom (either local or the whole cycle) once difficulty significantly declines for at least two diffuculty periods.
Each period is about two weeks.
In the current period (ending in about 12 d 6hr) the projection is for about 8% decline.
Assuming that it would stay this way and the next one would be negative as well, then the bottom would be either at that time or +/-10-14 days.
Therefore it could be around Dec 19 plus minus 10-14 days.
Or, we might have had it already when we dipped to 15.5K.

are you being sarcastic?
if yes, OK, but usually it is stable (apart from when it was minus 4-5C in a subtropical situation).
if not sarcastic, then they have 8.25% sales tax to compensate for no state tax...we still pay federal taxes, though.

We can have expected 'unexpected' any time now, that's for sure.
Makes you either paranoid or philosophical about life and everything else, like having or not having more funds.

since bitcoin tracker one has an exact same price as the first of "certificates" you are talking about (SEK 739.00), it probably means that it is the same thing, just called differently on US and swedish websites.
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/COINXBT:SS

Are you talking about swedish bitcoin ETN (Bitcoin tracker one)?
I bought some in Fidelity, not much, though.
I don't know about Sweden, but in Germany it could be done painlessly since btc cap gains over a year are not taxable.
In US, you would get hit with some tax (depending on exchanged value, could be as high as 23.4% of profits).

Of note....in Houston, TX, real estate taxes are 'killing" me every darned year.
They are roughly 2% per year per current year RE value...you can have 3X of the house (in $) in Cali, 4X in Colorado for the same tax.
As valuation rises, that 2% becomes more and more. The only limit of increase is 10% increase max for the year, but if, say, property value increased 20% in a year, this means that you would get hit with 10% tax increase two years in a row, unless value drops in year 2.

I know that New Jersey tax is even more (don't know if there are any deductions, age or other in NJ).
If bitcoin will truly "make it", I would definitely buy a second house in US, but ONLY in low RE tax places (hawaii, cali, CO, maybe even Virginia), not in NH or Vermont, even though i want that house to be in a colder climate. Heck, maybe i would even look at BC, Canada.

A day of the "underdog" at the World Cup?
...so far, at least.

re bitcoin...even a few hundred $ up feels quite good after all the carnage beforehand.

@jjg....nobody knew, I agree. In fact, most predicted a double hump with a second peak much higher with analogy to 2013.
Alas, Wall Street was fast on the sell. I assume that they knew that Fed is about to viciously tighten.
I made a bit of a tactical mistake as I also predicted the tightening, but did not think that they would be SO fast and relentless.
On a positive side, i have a bunch of cash coming in each month now as i had a relatively significant amount in short term treasuries (effectively) to counterbalance my bitcoin position.
Maybe i would even use that cash flow almost entirely to buy btc in 2023-2024.

yea, everyone pretty much knows the "drill" by now, but buying at the lows and selling closer to bumps can still result in 50% more btc in the end, albeit I definitely don't know how to do it.
I typically sell when I need money and buy when I have extra.

In this cycle, I have a more detailed game plan, though. We shall see how it goes.

sorry, that's NOT how % of change is calculated, but the result is correct anyway.
The formula is ((P2-P1)/P1)X100%=((47902-28775)/28775)X100%=66.4%
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/percentage-change.asp

^^ well, FTX had a disclaimer in their TOS saying that the title to all coins belonged to the user (after they deposit those on the exchange).
Apparently, it made ZERO difference as far as the "true" user rights.
I am very curious as to how they will explain this situation.

sorry, I never GAF re all those rainbow charts;
AMZN also probably had rainbow charts that it grossly violated during 2000-2001 as well.
I am sure that it broke all kinds of TA canon in it's 95% decline back then.

Nice..what is the average between +35% and +95%?
....+65%..could be a number for the whole of 2023  

part of it won't, imho.

OT: US team did OK today, especially the first half, but they look a bit inexperienced, albeit very energetic.
England, on the other hand, looks like a potential title contender after the first game with Kane surprisingly playing in a passer role (rather than being the tip of the spear).