Martin Armstrong Discussion

[olegrey]

Re-posting the link to the spreadsheet I started a couple months ago.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZJ8y06rALN-1eUPX_1ZbAfJ4SPP1oM_LcMHg5fsLW_I/edit#gid=0

My main purpose for posting this originally was to try to get some confirmation in my understanding of the reversal system which was not available via Socrates support and this is the only specific trading strategy listed in the documentation (open a position the open of the next trading day and close at the election of the reversal in the opposite direction). But since this information is proprietary I do not want to continue to update with new information. I will close out the open positions when that happens, however, so I will do some updating. And, I will say that the major changes are for the weekly reversals in the DOW (bullish positions were closed out and bearish positions were opened and then closed out all with losses), the USD/EURO weekly and monthly bearish reversals were all closed out at $1.1343, and WMT had several weekly and a monthly bullish reversal elected so more positions would have been opened.

In my limited experience so far I do not believe that Socrates is a fraud. The monthly reversals have overall worked very well for the handful of assets shown here. Also, there has always been follow-through when all of the bullish or bearish monthly reversals are elected for an asset.

I also believe that Socrates is extremely complicated and getting started is completely overwhelming. There is a lack of support for users trying to understand how to use the system, there are bugs, there is limited historical data, no back-testing capabilities, and some critical information is not included that was available in the version WEC attendees were able to use. It also does not have any capabilities for screening assets. Even if you have the ability on your own to scrape the data it is too expensive to get access to what you would need (i.e. the reversals). It essentially feels like the system is still designed for institutional users who would have access to everything in Socrates.

I am currently trying to build a strategy, as alluded to but not well-described in the user manual, for using failed election of reversals which seems to have some promise. Again, the lack of back-testing capabilities and limited access to data makes this an extremely difficult task.

@bikefront @MTL4 Could you send me a PM? I have some questions for you on your experience with Socrates.

I think a few of the reversals were miss typed.  Do you mind checking the 6/3/2019 WMT,
4/15/2019 COST, 9/29/2017 COST, 7/29/2016 SPY.  I think these reversals were not elected because you used the closing on Monday instead of the closing on Friday.  Also what does "Rev Dt" column mean?

[1714312968]

1714312968

[1714312968]

1714312968

[1714312968]

1714312968

[1714312968]

1714312968

[1714312968]

1714312968

[1714312968]

1714312968

[ediface]

I think a few of the reversals were miss typed.  Do you mind checking the 6/3/2019 WMT,
4/15/2019 COST, 9/29/2017 COST, 7/29/2016 SPY.  I think these reversals were not elected because you used the closing on Monday instead of the closing on Friday.  Also what does "Rev Dt" column mean?

The first column is the last trading day of the period in question. The period in question is the Rev Dt column. For example, the last trading day of September 2017 was the 29th so for the above COST example a monthly reversal was elected in September 2017 (Rev Dt) and the trading day where the reversal was elected was 6/29/2017 (first column - Rev Election Dt). The first column is then used to get the open of the next trading day which is used for the open of the trade (column H). With that said...

6/3/2019 WMT was corrected to 6/7/2019 and Rev Dt was corrected to 6/3/2019
4/15/2019 COST was corrected to 4/5/2019 which is the last trading day of the week of 4/1/2019
9/29/2017 COST is correct as it is the last trading day of September 2017
7/29/2016 SPY is correct as it is the last trading day of July 2016

Thanks for pointing those out.

[olegrey]

I think a few of the reversals were miss typed.  Do you mind checking the 6/3/2019 WMT,
4/15/2019 COST, 9/29/2017 COST, 7/29/2016 SPY.  I think these reversals were not elected because you used the closing on Monday instead of the closing on Friday.  Also what does "Rev Dt" column mean?

The first column is the last trading day of the period in question. The period in question is the Rev Dt column. For example, the last trading day of September 2017 was the 29th so for the above COST example a monthly reversal was elected in September 2017 (Rev Dt) and the trading day where the reversal was elected was 6/29/2017 (first column - Rev Election Dt). The first column is then used to get the open of the next trading day which is used for the open of the trade (column H). With that said...

6/3/2019 WMT was corrected to 6/7/2019 and Rev Dt was corrected to 6/3/2019
4/15/2019 COST was corrected to 4/5/2019 which is the last trading day of the week of 4/1/2019
9/29/2017 COST is correct as it is the last trading day of September 2017
7/29/2016 SPY is correct as it is the last trading day of July 2016

Thanks for pointing those out.

Thank you for the help.  Isn't the 9/29/2017 COST a failed bullish reversal because the reversal is 164.96 and the closing on 9/29/2017 was 164.29.  Also 81.74 for the 7/29/2016 SPY seems way to low to be a monthly bullish reversal since SPY closed at 217.12 on that date.

[ediface]

Thank you for the help.  Isn't the 9/29/2017 COST a failed bullish reversal because the reversal is 164.96 and the closing on 9/29/2017 was 164.29.  Also 81.74 for the 7/29/2016 SPY seems way to low to be a monthly bullish reversal since SPY closed at 217.12 on that date.

Yep, copy and paste errors. Those were the same values as the row above. So COST reversal is $159.81 and SPY is $2134.73 which have been updated. Those didn't have an impact on the returns though since that's just reference data.

[realr0ach]

@unwashed, thanks for your contribution on pointing out that Armstrong mis-led SO MANY in his WEC conference on the gold.

Armstrong told everyone to literally sell the bottom in gold at $1050 and claimed it was going to "below $800 to the abyss" even though it's not even possible when AISC was something like $1050-$1100 on average (meaning some produce for cheaper, some more expensive, but the price is more set at the margin than at the lowest cost producer in the entire world, especially if the lowest cost producer doesn't fill all demand).  

Harry Dent is a US govt asset/disinformation agent and says the same garbage claiming gold can somehow go far below cost of production, so Armstrong is probably some kind of disinformation agent too.  Both of these fucktards basically tell people to 'HODL' US dollars & stawks, and that everything else is bad to hold, so seems like the only purpose of these two disinformation agents is to defend the Jewish Ponzi dollar and Jewish Ponzi stock system.

[AnonymousCoder]

...
Armstrong told everyone to literally sell the bottom in gold at $1050 and claimed it was going to "below $800 to the abyss" even though it's not even possible when AISC was something like $1050-$1100 on average (meaning some produce for cheaper, some more expensive, but the price is more set at the margin than at the lowest cost producer in the entire world, especially if the lowest cost producer doesn't fill all demand).

Harry Dent is a US govt asset/disinformation agent and says the same garbage claiming gold can somehow go far below cost of production, so Armstrong is probably some kind of disinformation agent too. Both of these fucktards basically tell people to 'HODL' US dollars & stawks, and that everything else is bad to hold, so seems like the only purpose of these two disinformation agents is to defend the Jewish Ponzi dollar and Jewish Ponzi stock system.

True he misled many. And he ran a Ponzi scheme. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

However to say that he is actually part of something else such as an agent of some organization would be an overstatement IMHO. That would give him more legitimacy than what he has.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[DanB1]

@unwashed, thanks for your contribution on pointing out that Armstrong mis-led SO MANY in his WEC conference on the gold.

Armstrong told everyone to literally sell the bottom in gold at $1050 and claimed it was going to "below $800 to the abyss" even though it's not even possible when AISC was something like $1050-$1100 on average (meaning some produce for cheaper, some more expensive, but the price is more set at the margin than at the lowest cost producer in the entire world, especially if the lowest cost producer doesn't fill all demand).  

Harry Dent is a US govt asset/disinformation agent and says the same garbage claiming gold can somehow go far below cost of production, so Armstrong is probably some kind of disinformation agent too.  Both of these fucktards basically tell people to 'HODL' US dollars & stawks, and that everything else is bad to hold, so seems like the only purpose of these two disinformation agents is to defend the Jewish Ponzi dollar and Jewish Ponzi stock system.

Haha, this is what the rest of the Bitcoin Forum looks like I guess; Retards that hide behind a pc in their parents basement and flood forums like this with their conspiracy theories.
Good luck with that!

[DanB1]

We failed to elect a key weekly bullish reversal but the main reason for the entry is because Armstrong has stuck his neck out here and said we needed to close this week above 26951.82 to imply a further advance.  Also the 1st of July has been a turning point with the next showing up as the 8th and normally one turning point is followed by the opposite event on the next, on the energy model we are seeing the market making new intraday highs while the energy models are declining which indicates this rally is not sustainable. On the weekly energy model we are seeing the energy peak before the price high which indicates we may be forming a temporary high.  The energy model is very important to understand and helps you to identify when the market is over-bought or over-sold.

Th exit point is the most immediate daily bearish reversal which lies at 26536.32 but we have crash mode technical support at 26617 which may also offer support.

Hi Gumbi, for my information:
- What is the time frame you are looking at for your trade to work?
- What is your stop-loss for this trade, is that another reversal or the same weekly that we did not elect last week (26,951.82)?

[unwashed]

^^^^
If this was me, I'd exit now. This is the 4th tap at 27,000 and indicators have room to move up. Typically TA rule, 3 taps and out would be a very risky short.

[DanB1]

^^^^
If this was me, I'd exit now. This is the 4th tap at 27,000 and indicators have room to move up. Typically TA rule, 3 taps and out would be a very risky short.

True, this market looks like it wants to go up further. I'm not sure what the catalyst would be for a Panic Cycle this month, but let's see...

[AnonymousCoder]

Reading Tea Leaves

"True, this market looks like it wants to go up further."

looks like a more rational assessment of the situation than the hokus-pokus of searching for panic cycles in forecast arrays in the "Pro" ahem professional? version of Socrates. After the common discovery that almost everybody who has posted in this blog has admitted that the forecast arrays do not make sense to them.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[MTL4]

Looks like pretty strong support around the DOW 26750 mark so I'll be curious to see how this trade does.

Looks like it bounced right around the strong resistance where we suggested (26,750 on the weekly) on that DOW short and has now decided to take off again........hopefully the short got closed.  Seems pretty dangerous to be shorting against the main trend right now especially when the risk-return is so small even if you're right.

MA likes to talk about phase-transitions so to me the idea you could have a melt-up from here on the DOW to many seems crazy but this is where I think his stuff has some merit.  On the day trades I'll take my TA for sure but on the larger picture to me there may still be some value.

[AnonymousCoder]

Looks like it bounced right around where we suggested (26,750 on the weekly) on that DOW short and has now decided to take off again........hopefully the short got closed. Seems pretty dangerous to be shorting against the main trend especially when the risk-return is so small even if you're right.

MA likes to talk about phase-transitions so to me the idea you could have a melt-up from here on the DOW to many seems crazy but this is where I think his stuff has some merit. On the day trades I'll take my TA for sure but on the larger picture to me there may still be some value.

The rather obvious reality is if you cut interest rates then money has no other place to go than into equities.

The rather crude results from "this stuff" have to be adjusted to fit that reality.

Because its formulas do not even know about interest rates. The formulas look only at a single dimension which is the time series of a single market.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[Gumbi]

We failed to elect a key weekly bullish reversal but the main reason for the entry is because Armstrong has stuck his neck out here and said we needed to close this week above 26951.82 to imply a further advance.  Also the 1st of July has been a turning point with the next showing up as the 8th and normally one turning point is followed by the opposite event on the next, on the energy model we are seeing the market making new intraday highs while the energy models are declining which indicates this rally is not sustainable. On the weekly energy model we are seeing the energy peak before the price high which indicates we may be forming a temporary high.  The energy model is very important to understand and helps you to identify when the market is over-bought or over-sold.

Th exit point is the most immediate daily bearish reversal which lies at 26536.32 but we have crash mode technical support at 26617 which may also offer support.

Hi Gumbi, for my information:
- What is the time frame you are looking at for your trade to work?
- What is your stop-loss for this trade, is that another reversal or the same weekly that we did not elect last week (26,951.82)?

I exited for the close on the 10th since we elected daily reversals on the Nasdaq and Dow. we have another daily bullish at 26966.10. This month is a panic cycle so we either move to the upside to 28k area  or retest the lows made the previous month if we elect the weekly bullish at 26951.82 it should be to the upside.

August is a turning point and October is the next so a high in August implies a low in October. the week of the high/low looks like the week of the 29th or the 5th.

[MTL4]

The rather obvious reality is if you cut interest rates then money has no other place to go than into equities.

Normally lowering rates would be great for bonds too but at this point in the game you can tell folks are nervous and the money is staying out of the debt markets (public vs private).  There's still a few out picking up pennies in front of the steamroller but at a certain point the balance will tip completely.  CBs are trapped and have no choice but to keep buying or the whole house of cards comes down (not to mention gov't deficits would skyrocket).

I exited for the close on the 10th since we elected daily reversals on the Nasdaq and Dow. we have another daily bullish at 26966.10. This month is a panic cycle so we either move to the upside to 28k area  or retest the lows made the previous month if we elect the weekly bullish at 26951.82 it should be to the upside.

August is a turning point and October is the next so a high in August implies a low in October. the week of the high/low looks like the week of the 29th or the 5th.

So Gumbi you entered at around 26900 (Jul 5) and exited around 26850 (approx close on Jul 10)?
Just trying to make sure the details on the trade are clear.

[nattybear]

I exited for the close on the 10th since we elected daily reversals on the Nasdaq and Dow. we have another daily bullish at 26966.10. This month is a panic cycle so we either move to the upside to 28k area  or retest the lows made the previous month if we elect the weekly bullish at 26951.82 it should be to the upside.

August is a turning point and October is the next so a high in August implies a low in October. the week of the high/low looks like the week of the 29th or the 5th.

I'm open to being corrected however that isn't what MA classifies as a panic cycle.

A panic cycle for a nominated time period is a movement that encompasses both the high and low of the previous time period's range. In this case, if July is to be a panic month then the market needs to fall away below ~24,600 before month end. Having followed the system as a pro subscriber and reading all of the publicly available content there isn't criteria of 'if this event occurs then a panic cycle definition changes/is mitigated'.

That aside - the weekly reversals are empirically not reliable tools as has been demonstrated previously. See the bearish weekly reversals that were elected at the end of May immediately prior to the market rallying.

[Indyz]

So we will either go up or down.

Folks, you'll need to pay to get such useful advice.

[AnonymousCoder]

Panic Cycle

...
I'm open to being corrected however that isn't what MA classifies as a panic cycle.

A panic cycle for a nominated time period is a movement that encompasses both the high and low of the previous time period's range.
...

Everything in Amstrong's terminology related to forecasting can be interpreted in multiple ways, i.e. is ambiguous.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/panic-cycles-are-different-from-volatility/

Panic Cycles are either a big move in one direct, or they are outside reversals that exceed and penetrate the previous range.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[nattybear]

So we will either go up or down.

Folks, you'll need to pay to get such useful advice.

Essentially yes... The fundamental issue that comes with using MA commentary.

Not only do you need to personally interpret the often sensationalised text it will also have multiple outcomes that leave you (not infrequently) waiting on the sidelines 'waiting'.

[AnonymousCoder]

So we will either go up or down.

Folks, you'll need to pay to get such useful advice.

Essentially yes... The fundamental issue that comes with using MA commentary.

Not only do you need to personally interpret the often sensationalised text it will also have multiple outcomes that leave you (not infrequently) waiting on the sidelines 'waiting'.

Exactly. You spend a lot of time trying to de-cypher these Socrates signals and miss important opportunities.

Getting into a state of despair sooner or later.

Time is better spent studying the market and develop some ideas and refine them. With Socrates you will never learn why you went wrong.

For me, reading this blog has been a fantastic experience. It allowed me to get confirmation of the flaws I observed in this system and get completely detached from it. I had to express my findings in an accurate way, with proofs attached to everything I wrote here.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain