Bitcoin Forum
November 22, 2019, 09:00:09 PM *
News: The forum is 10 years old today!
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 ... 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 [274] 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 ... 328 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 617849 times)
trulycoined
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 54
Merit: 5


View Profile
June 09, 2019, 05:55:14 PM
 #5461

Did anyone else see it??!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/trump-v-federal-reserve-why/

He's deleted his final paragraph from this blog post..I definitely read it 12 hrs ago and now I can't find it. 

From memory it said something to the effect that '..I should warn you that the Govt are trying to silence me again, this time once and for all.  They can kill me - it does not matter as it will not affect the outcome...'

I am definitely worried for him.  He should leave the US and move to Asia..!


Yes! I saw this and thought it sounded deeply paranoid. Even stranger he has now removed it.

What was most odd was the sentence had no context to the other paragraph. Perhaps he accidentally copy and pasted before publishing it?

I doubt they are "out to get him" because if that were true, he would have long been made gone.

Perhaps as Barclay Lieb explains in his book I recently read, MA has completely lost his mind and as the years roll on and he gets older, his mental health might be worsening.
1574456409
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1574456409

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1574456409
Reply with quote  #2

1574456409
Report to moderator
The Bitcoin Forum is turning 10 years old! Join the community in sharing and exploring the notable posts made over the years.
1574456409
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1574456409

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1574456409
Reply with quote  #2

1574456409
Report to moderator
1574456409
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1574456409

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1574456409
Reply with quote  #2

1574456409
Report to moderator
1574456409
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1574456409

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1574456409
Reply with quote  #2

1574456409
Report to moderator
trulycoined
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 54
Merit: 5


View Profile
June 09, 2019, 06:13:27 PM
Last edit: June 09, 2019, 06:32:53 PM by trulycoined
 #5462

Being one to question everything, I have been on a long quest to either prove or disprove MA as a very convincing charlatan. That included attending his Orlando WEC 2018 at great expense to further draw a conclusion and if it meant I waved goodbye to the money, then a valuable lesson learnt. The event was interesting from a socioeconomics perspective, but I would not attend again. A very credible question I asked MA about his model was met with a less than credible (and defensive) response, which I found odd. That essentially set the rot in his aura of a trading "God" who has unlocked the keys to the universe...

I do however know of some people who I met at the event who have continued attending. They have dropped at least 5 figures now attending his events.

While I used to religiously read his blog, finding his content very interesting, that has began to wane in recent months as I find a lot of his calls come to pass with nothing noteworthy happening. It then throws his entire model into question.

I was considering going to his Rome WEC, but then found this forum as part of my "is he a charlatan?" research, and decided someone who is increasingly lacking in credibility is not worth $6k+ in ticket and travel costs.

As others have pointed out, the ambiguity of his predictions is becoming increasingly frustrating. Take today's blog as an example:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/the-future-which-door-to-enter/

"U.S. banks will probably be safe in general for the next two years. Just anything you put in a bank, do not lock it in long-term. Stay short-term — 2021 is where things start to go nuts."

And yet he has for years' explained the US was a safe haven and the USD being the world reserve currency would see huge capital flows into the US. That would be good for US banks as it means they have more capital to shore up any losses?

MA also avoids directly answering the question. He seems to do this a lot, an art in itself. Either there will be paragraph after paragraph that beats around the bush and never directly addresses the question, or it will be a short few lines that gives an abstract "answer". It is ironic he is so negative towards politicians, and yet he seems to be increasingly behaving like one.


I still think there might be something in his predictions about major socioeconomic events and how cycles repeat through everything in the universe. However, the predictions most people could make themselves if they bother to pick up a history book and understand what is likely to happen based on the economy, society and culture. It was obvious some time ago that Western Civilisation was on a decline and the concept of a "cycle" to all civilisations is not new.

Sir John Glubb of the British Army produced a famous paper on this in 1976:

https://medium.com/@TXHart/the-fate-of-empires-and-search-for-survival-or-why-do-empires-rise-and-fall-85dd3d9269ca

That was long before MA became "prolific" with his own theory on major cycles and specifically civilisations. The business cycle and cycles even in trading like Fibonacci are also not new concepts that are the preserve of MA.

None of these predictions require an alleged "AI" model, simply because that AI model would need to be fed INFINITE volumes of data otherwise it will NEVER be accurate. It is no different than trying to predict a roulette table based on number patterns, where instead the laws of physics and a computer will allow for a small edge on the house. In this scenario, there ARE few variables as it is just a table and a ball. But importantly, the edge such a device gives you is only 5-10%.

No such "edge" exists when the system is so complex, you are dealing with economics, society, culture and environmental factors. There are far too many variables for even a computer to even measure effectively to get a similar "edge", and I somehow doubt some ageing guy with a few million in the bank and a virtual office in St Pete has such a computer system.

It thus boils down to making no more accurate predictions than a well informed individual who is smart and can think deeply.

This is also why I think any MA predictions to do with trading, and especially day trading, should be ignored. He is useful for a quickfire dose of socioeconomic predictions, a lot of which are not that unique nor mindblowing. The rest is up to you to work out.
THX 1138
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 203
Merit: 103



View Profile
June 09, 2019, 06:27:26 PM
 #5463

Did anyone else see it??!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/trump-v-federal-reserve-why/

He's deleted his final paragraph from this blog post..I definitely read it 12 hrs ago and now I can't find it. 

From memory it said something to the effect that '..I should warn you that the Govt are trying to silence me again, this time once and for all.  They can kill me - it does not matter as it will not affect the outcome...'

I am definitely worried for him.  He should leave the US and move to Asia..!


Yes! I saw this and thought it sounded deeply paranoid. Even stranger he has now removed it.

What was most odd was the sentence had no context to the other paragraph. Perhaps he accidentally copy and pasted before publishing it?

I doubt they are "out to get him" because if that were true, he would have long been made gone.

Perhaps as Barclay Lieb explains in his book I recently read, MA has completely lost his mind and as the years roll on and he gets older, his mental health might be worsening.

You might be interested to read this Steemit blog post by Anonymint which contains an admission by Armstrong that he is being harrassed by the government again:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@anonymint/bitco-i-n-will-collapse-to-usd775-price-soon


Gumbi
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 82
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 09, 2019, 07:40:35 PM
 #5464

Did anyone else see it??!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/trump-v-federal-reserve-why/

He's deleted his final paragraph from this blog post..I definitely read it 12 hrs ago and now I can't find it. 

From memory it said something to the effect that '..I should warn you that the Govt are trying to silence me again, this time once and for all.  They can kill me - it does not matter as it will not affect the outcome...'

I am definitely worried for him.  He should leave the US and move to Asia..!


Yes! I saw this and thought it sounded deeply paranoid. Even stranger he has now removed it.

What was most odd was the sentence had no context to the other paragraph. Perhaps he accidentally copy and pasted before publishing it?

I doubt they are "out to get him" because if that were true, he would have long been made gone.

Perhaps as Barclay Lieb explains in his book I recently read, MA has completely lost his mind and as the years roll on and he gets older, his mental health might be worsening.


 The government is moving into full totalitarianism and you think he is paranoid exposing the deep state in just about every blog post.  The problem is Armstrong has attracted too much attention and I believe inviting Nigel Farage may have sparked all of this. Martin needs to leave the USA as soon as possible before they lock him up again under some bullshit conspiracy case.




trulycoined
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 54
Merit: 5


View Profile
June 09, 2019, 08:22:10 PM
 #5465



 The government is moving into full totalitarianism and you think he is paranoid exposing the deep state in just about every blog post.  The problem is Armstrong has attracted too much attention and I believe inviting Nigel Farage may have sparked all of this. Martin needs to leave the USA as soon as possible before they lock him up again under some bullshit conspiracy case.

[/quote]

If MA got more mainstream, perhaps I would believe it. But he remains a fringe commentator on alternative media channels. I doubt the powers at be would be much interested in him and with that, why would they ever release him from prison if they wanted him shut up? Makes no sense.

NF speaking at the Rome WEC was not publicised. I am in Europe and on all mainstream media, there was not a single mention of NF attending any speaking engagement. NF is someone who sees vast media scrutiny in literally everything. He cannot even walk down a street without it being front page news (milkshake assault). So picking up a speaking fee from a "convicted financial fraudster" would be ideal propaganda to further deflate his "credibility". Not a single report.

The latest court case in NYC sounds like:
1. A contractor was clearing out a property MA owned, perhaps while he was imprisoned.
2. Said contractor explained in their services contract, "anything they found" was legally theirs as signed by the person who authorised the work.
3. Said contractor found a horde of rare coins (the irony!).
4. Said contractor sold said coins to a third party.
5. Third party have recently decided to auction the coins.
6. MA has found out and come forward as the owner of those coins, disputing that third party purchased stolen goods from the cleaning contractor.
7. Auction house suspended auction of coins.
8. Investigation now opens up the original MA court case from 1999, where the judge ordered him to forfeit all of his assets, and that is why he was imprisoned for so long under contempt (under the belief he was hiding his assets).

This is what MA is now worrying about.

I don't think this is some deep state conspiracy. It is basically re-opening Pandora's Box and MA is stuck between either losing a high value asset that was stolen from him, or proving it is his and re-opening the SEC case from 1999.

I feel for him though, at his age, he does not need the stress of this legal dichotomy. I have met him and he does seem like a good, if somewhat flawed, person.
NOCHYM
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 10, 2019, 04:14:59 AM
 #5466

A very credible question I asked MA about his model was met with a less than credible (and defensive) response, which I found odd.

What was the credible question you asked that made him defensive?
AnonymousCoder
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 2


View Profile
June 10, 2019, 06:40:11 AM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:10:14 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5467

Interesting that on the same day of my post where I covered this relativity MA answers a user question https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/reversals-timing/ which clearly shows that Weekly Reversals are not valid standalone, but subject to the human interpretation of both weekly and daily forecast arrays which may negate the Reversal to mean the opposite or limit the validity to one day only. This in addition to the 1% rule and the not so rare superposition event. This reduces the confidence with what they can be traded to zero. I am just considering what seems to be the consensus in this group that the forecast arrays are much too ambiguous to be considered reliable. Here it is set in stone that they are strictly part of the Reversal system.

Here is the critical question to answer:

This is a computer based system, right? Using AI and so forth? Bullshit.

Someone please tell me that a computer cannot figure out these conditions and come up with a clear answer that the poor user has to find by navigating this maze? Give me a break! This is disgusting. Only people who want to be deceived, want to be lied to will believe this. Either MA does not know how to write computer programs, or he knows it is not possible and keeps beating around the bush. I said it before. The more time you try learning this stuff, the more time you spend losing money. The result is the same that his system does not work.

In other words, the forecast arrays will mostly not agree with the Reversals. So when the Reversals are good and you trade them, then you ignore the forecast arrays, fine. If you however take them seriously, then you do not trade and lose an opportunity. On the other hand, if the Reversals are bad, then it is your fault if you ignored the forecast arrays. Pick your poison.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
DanB1
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 66
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 10, 2019, 07:59:08 AM
Last edit: June 10, 2019, 08:14:20 AM by DanB1
 #5468

Regarding the arrays. I've noticed, while the top "Aggregate" line keeps chancing all the time (especially the daily), a Direction of Change, Panic Cycle or Volatility are often correct.
I find this especially with Panic Cycles. MA says it's an outside reversal 70% of the time and 30% of the time it's a strong move in 1 direction.
I'm not to sure on these percentages but almost always it's interesting move on these days.
s29
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 71
Merit: 1


View Profile
June 10, 2019, 12:09:40 PM
Last edit: June 10, 2019, 03:21:17 PM by s29
 #5469

As others have pointed out, the ambiguity of his predictions is becoming increasingly frustrating. Take today's blog as an example:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/the-future-which-door-to-enter/

"U.S. banks will probably be safe in general for the next two years. Just anything you put in a bank, do not lock it in long-term. Stay short-term — 2021 is where things start to go nuts."


"Going nuts" is subject to a lot of interpertations Cheesy I hear Marty uses that a lot. He sounds like Zero Hedge on a regular basis. What is exactly going nuts? That Trump won the US election? That the other side was not so pleased? That bund rates are negative? Marty sounds like a crybaby. Maybe he should change his website to armstrongeconomiccollapseblog.com

Just to give an example from March 28th:

Quote
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/emerging-markets/the-financial-panic-of-2019/

The Financial Panic of 2019?
Blog/Emerging Markets
Posted Mar 28, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

The distortion in the yield curve is building with tremendous force. There are vast bids for US 90-day T-Bills from around the world and no offers. The shortage in US government paper is now being reported to us from repo desks around the world. There is a MAJOR PANIC in to the dollar as emerging markets come under a financial crisis, in part, instigated by Turkey. The government simply trapped investors and refuses to allow transactions out of the Turkish lira. Turkey’s stand-off with investors has unnerved traders globally, pushing the world ever closer to a major FINANCIAL PANIC come this May 2019.

There is a major liquidity crisis brewing that could pop in May 2019. European Banks have loaded their portfolios with real estate loans thanks to quantitative easing and negative interest rates, and emerging market debt. Spanish banks are especially invested in Turkish debt where they hoped to get the highest yields expecting that the IMF would never let Turkey default. On top of this, banks have been lending to each other to also avoid parking money at the European Central Bank where they would be charged with a negative interest rate.

Currencies from South Africa’s rand to Brazil’s real are witnessing a spike in their expected volatility, signaling concern they may weaken the most along with the Turkish lira going into May. The price swings have evoked sudden deep-rooted fears that there may be an emerging market crash before the end of the year.

We will update on the private blog in more detail. However, keep in mind that this Inverted Yield Curve is by no means reflecting a US recession. This is a global financial panic unfolding on a grand scale. This is why we selected May for the WEC in Rome. This is far more than just politics. This is beginning to evolve into a serious liquidity crisis where we may yet see more countries try capital controls to save the day.

Wel May is just over...

USD/Brazilian Real is practically flat this year.
USD/EUR is practically flat this year.
USD/Turkish lira is LOWER since May 1st.
S&P is still up 15% from January 1st.
High Yield is doing fine (even in May), so no liquiditity crisis.

Granted, year is not over yet, but calling May a "FINANCIAL PANIC MONTH" was completely nuts. It was a regular 38.2% correction after a historic bullish 25% move that Armstrong misssed.
bikefront
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 428
Merit: 21


View Profile
June 10, 2019, 01:28:24 PM
 #5470

Interesting that on the same day of my post where I covered this relativity MA answers a user question https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/reversals-timing/ which clearly shows that Weekly Reversals are not valid standalone, but subject to the human interpretation of both weekly and daily forecast arrays which may negate the Reversal to mean the opposite or limit the validity to one day only. This in addition to the 1% rule and the not so rare superposition event. This reduces the confidence with what they can be traded to zero. I am just considering what seems to be the consensus in this group that the forecast arrays are much too ambiguous to be considered reliable. Here it is set in stone that they are strictly part of the Reversal system.

Here is the critical question to answer:

This is a computer based system, right? Using AI and so forth? Bullshit.

Someone please tell me that a computer cannot figure out these conditions and come up with a clear answer that the poor user has to find by navigating this maze? Give me a break! This is disgusting. Only people who want to be deceived, want to be lied to will believe this. Either MA does not know how to write computer programs, or he knows it is not possible and keeps beating around the bush. I said it before. The more time you try learning this stuff, the more time you spend losing money. The result is the same that his system does not work.

In other words, the forecast arrays will mostly not agree with the Reversals. So when the Reversals are good and you trade them, then you ignore the forecast arrays, fine. If you however take them seriously, then you do not trade and lose an opportunity. On the other hand, if the Reversals are bad, then it is your fault if you ignored the forecast arrays. Pick your poison.

I see. I had not seen that . And yeah, Armstrong is a reader of this blog- I posed several specific issues multiple times on this form and had them answered by apparent coincidence each time on his private blog. I covered this phenomenon previously and was led to the conclusion that the user StrikeEagle is almost certainly Martin Armstrong; he talks and acts like Armstrong complete with outlandish claims being completely normal in his mind. 'Should be thanking him for years of perfect forecasts' Oh come on. Only Armstrong would say that.
trulycoined
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 54
Merit: 5


View Profile
June 10, 2019, 02:13:26 PM
 #5471

I have also noticed the MA blog has been going overdrive in pushing the paid reports of late.

A lot of "questions" seem well set up, where MA explains X report is available to buy OR a subscription to Socrates.

I wonder if the impending legal action re: those ancient coins is requiring some very deep pockets...
trulycoined
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 54
Merit: 5


View Profile
June 10, 2019, 02:24:38 PM
 #5472

A very credible question I asked MA about his model was met with a less than credible (and defensive) response, which I found odd.

What was the credible question you asked that made him defensive?

I asked MA how could Socrates be "accurate" where surely the more data you have, the more accurate the model would get. Thus, it is physically not possible to have plugged in infinite sources of data, so how can the ECM model be accurate?

MA's response to this was somewhat defensive. He seemed a bit taken aback someone would question his model and he explained that the model "has always been accurate" and pinpointed key historical flashpoints, therefore the need for ever increasing volume of data to improve accuracy was not required.


Like all AI systems or even ML, you MUST feed the machine significant volumes of data for it to predict future outcomes accurately. I felt his response was odd, especially for someone who (allegedly) has been developing one of the "first" AI systems since the 1970s, and yet he didn't seem to talk like someone who was hugely technical.

The other issues is this: if you feed a machine erroneous data, then the output will be erroneous as well. So if Socrates has been fed a vast amount of historical data, how can anyone be sure that data is accurate? Even with modern, sophisticated and digital data recording devices and measures, incorrect data is still collected. It would have been a lot worse during less civil eras or where recording data was done by ink and paper.

Data can also be fabricated, so how can you also be certain historical data from 500, 1000 or 3000 years ago is even correct?

These objective questions to Socrates/ECM don't appear to have any answers and I would hazard guess MA would retort to his default position of: the model has already pinpointed key historical events and so IS accurate...
MA_talk
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 189
Merit: 10


View Profile
June 10, 2019, 04:51:50 PM
 #5473

@bikefront,

Regarding your post on "doing"
Quote
a Reversal analysis but if things are being deleted from his site, there is no point, as it puts the validity of the data to question.

on June 08, 2019, 03:31:02 PM

  You can document everything on Martin Armstrong by going to Wayback Machine and save the pages there.  He will NOT be able to change the posts AFTER you saved it.  And in fact, if he changes it afterwards, it's even better.  Because you can save the modified page AGAIN, and show that Armstrong attempted to change it.

That's how I'm doing it here:
http://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/p/economic-confidence-model.html

I just started this effort.  Not enough time spent yet, but anyone here is welcomed to contact me, and ADD their well-documented pages there.

A few pages I should back-search on his site for the actual pages to substantiated my claims, but anyway, my effort is really for people who potentially are researching on Armstrong, and it's totally "pro-bono" as they say.

By the way, I actually READ the legal documents from the judge on Armstrong's case.  I can't find the link, but recalling from my memory, the judge SAID (not in the exact words, but just from my memory) about Martin Armstrong:
Quote
He is extremely unrepentant and the judge was afraid of him doing harm to public, and the extra long sentence serves him well.


IF the government version of Armstrong's story is actually true (instead of Armstrong's version), Armstrong actually committed security frauds by making false brokerage statements along with Republic Bank, racking up lots of losses, and when found, he was in contempt of the court, because he was probably unwilling to give the information on the whereabouts, and give up any other non-bank assets (precious ancient coins, etc) to compensate his investors.  He probably stashed up those assets somewhere (and probably did that because of his "forecasting" ability on eventually being caught), and once he is out of jail, he can get to enjoy "his money".

The above is ONLY my conjecture of potentially what actually happens.  I used to side with Armstrong on his legal case.  However, right now, I don't want to take a side on that, because I don't think I've done enough research into it.

However, I have done enough research into Armstrong's claims on all of his forecasts and his Socrates, and I have to say that in all likelihood, there is NO artificial intelligence behind ANY of his computerized stuffs, because he himself is UNABLE to aggregate all the information and signals from his own models to give subscribers & readers USEFUL trading signals, but instead, he would continue to say that his models and Socrates are TOO COMPLICATE for any human to understand its entirety.

In other words, it's too complicate and cannot be understood, and tell me what is the USE for something that no human can understand nor automate.  Isn't that the same as junk?

MA_talk
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 189
Merit: 10


View Profile
June 10, 2019, 05:31:42 PM
 #5474

Interesting that on the same day of my post where I covered this relativity MA answers a user question https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/reversals-timing/ which clearly shows that Weekly Reversals are not valid standalone, but subject to the human interpretation of both weekly and daily forecast arrays which may negate the Reversal to mean the opposite or limit the validity to one day only. This in addition to the 1% rule and the not so rare superposition event. This reduces the confidence with what they can be traded to zero. I am just considering what seems to be the consensus in this group that the forecast arrays are much too ambiguous to be considered reliable. Here it is set in stone that they are strictly part of the Reversal system.

Here is the critical question to answer:

This is a computer based system, right? Using AI and so forth? Bullshit.

Someone please tell me that a computer cannot figure out these conditions and come up with a clear answer that the poor user has to find by navigating this maze? Give me a break! This is disgusting. Only people who want to be deceived, want to be lied to will believe this. Either MA does not know how to write computer programs, or he knows it is not possible and keeps beating around the bush. I said it before. The more time you try learning this stuff, the more time you spend losing money. The result is the same that his system does not work.

In other words, the forecast arrays will mostly not agree with the Reversals. So when the Reversals are good and you trade them, then you ignore the forecast arrays, fine. If you however take them seriously, then you do not trade and lose an opportunity. On the other hand, if the Reversals are bad, then it is your fault if you ignored the forecast arrays. Pick your poison.

Great catch, I totally agree with you!! 

Socrates is a computer based system, and it CANNOT figure out these conditions to give user a clear answer, because most likely, if Armstrong/Socrates ever does that, he/it will be SHOWN to be wrong RIGHT AWAY.

It is FAR BETTER to claim the complexity of his models/system, and push all the blames to the user for the wrong uses, and delegate all the responsibilities on trading to users.

Armstrong's logic is extremely simple.  If he is right, he is right.  If he is wrong, it's because you did NOT get it, or used his model incorrectly, or very likely, he will just say that you were dumb, and he is the smartest guy on Earth, and you just never get it, and it is because of your existence to take the other side of the trade, that makes his models always useful (but when in fact, as shown by many people on this forum, there was never any useful trades generated from his model.)
bikefront
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 428
Merit: 21


View Profile
June 10, 2019, 11:34:52 PM
 #5475

@bikefront,

Regarding your post on "doing"
Quote
a Reversal analysis but if things are being deleted from his site, there is no point, as it puts the validity of the data to question.

on June 08, 2019, 03:31:02 PM

  You can document everything on Martin Armstrong by going to Wayback Machine and save the pages there.  He will NOT be able to change the posts AFTER you saved it.  And in fact, if he changes it afterwards, it's even better.  Because you can save the modified page AGAIN, and show that Armstrong attempted to change it.

That's how I'm doing it here:
http://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/p/economic-confidence-model.html

I just started this effort.  Not enough time spent yet, but anyone here is welcomed to contact me, and ADD their well-documented pages there.

A few pages I should back-search on his site for the actual pages to substantiated my claims, but anyway, my effort is really for people who potentially are researching on Armstrong, and it's totally "pro-bono" as they say.

By the way, I actually READ the legal documents from the judge on Armstrong's case.  I can't find the link, but recalling from my memory, the judge SAID (not in the exact words, but just from my memory) about Martin Armstrong:
Quote
He is extremely unrepentant and the judge was afraid of him doing harm to public, and the extra long sentence serves him well.


IF the government version of Armstrong's story is actually true (instead of Armstrong's version), Armstrong actually committed security frauds by making false brokerage statements along with Republic Bank, racking up lots of losses, and when found, he was in contempt of the court, because he was probably unwilling to give the information on the whereabouts, and give up any other non-bank assets (precious ancient coins, etc) to compensate his investors.  He probably stashed up those assets somewhere (and probably did that because of his "forecasting" ability on eventually being caught), and once he is out of jail, he can get to enjoy "his money".

The above is ONLY my conjecture of potentially what actually happens.  I used to side with Armstrong on his legal case.  However, right now, I don't want to take a side on that, because I don't think I've done enough research into it.

However, I have done enough research into Armstrong's claims on all of his forecasts and his Socrates, and I have to say that in all likelihood, there is NO artificial intelligence behind ANY of his computerized stuffs, because he himself is UNABLE to aggregate all the information and signals from his own models to give subscribers & readers USEFUL trading signals, but instead, he would continue to say that his models and Socrates are TOO COMPLICATE for any human to understand its entirety.

In other words, it's too complicate and cannot be understood, and tell me what is the USE for something that no human can understand nor automate.  Isn't that the same as junk?



Sorry, I should have clarified. I meant the Reversals on Private Blog posts chronologically. The vast majority of his Reversal calls after '16 were on there, so I don't think the Wayback Machine would be able to check on paid sub sites due to private access. My intention was to backtest purely on that by searching 'reversal' and testing max profit, max drawdown, etc.
olegrey
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 83
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 11, 2019, 01:41:09 AM
 #5476

Interesting that on the same day of my post where I covered this relativity MA answers a user question https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/reversals-timing/ which clearly shows that Weekly Reversals are not valid standalone, but subject to the human interpretation of both weekly and daily forecast arrays which may negate the Reversal to mean the opposite or limit the validity to one day only. This in addition to the 1% rule and the not so rare superposition event. This reduces the confidence with what they can be traded to zero. I am just considering what seems to be the consensus in this group that the forecast arrays are much too ambiguous to be considered reliable. Here it is set in stone that they are strictly part of the Reversal system.

Here is the critical question to answer:

This is a computer based system, right? Using AI and so forth? Bullshit.

Someone please tell me that a computer cannot figure out these conditions and come up with a clear answer that the poor user has to find by navigating this maze? Give me a break! This is disgusting. Only people who want to be deceived, want to be lied to will believe this. Either MA does not know how to write computer programs, or he knows it is not possible and keeps beating around the bush. I said it before. The more time you try learning this stuff, the more time you spend losing money. The result is the same that his system does not work.

In other words, the forecast arrays will mostly not agree with the Reversals. So when the Reversals are good and you trade them, then you ignore the forecast arrays, fine. If you however take them seriously, then you do not trade and lose an opportunity. On the other hand, if the Reversals are bad, then it is your fault if you ignored the forecast arrays. Pick your poison.

What was the timeframe you used to determine if the daily/weekly/monthly elected reversal was a failure?
AnonymousCoder
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 2


View Profile
June 11, 2019, 02:15:28 AM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:10:35 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5477

Interesting that on the same day of my post where I covered this relativity MA answers a user question https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/reversals-timing/ which clearly shows that Weekly Reversals are not valid standalone, but subject to the human interpretation of both weekly and daily forecast arrays which may negate the Reversal to mean the opposite or limit the validity to one day only. This in addition to the 1% rule and the not so rare superposition event. This reduces the confidence with what they can be traded to zero. I am just considering what seems to be the consensus in this group that the forecast arrays are much too ambiguous to be considered reliable. Here it is set in stone that they are strictly part of the Reversal system.

Here is the critical question to answer:

This is a computer based system, right? Using AI and so forth? Bullshit.

Someone please tell me that a computer cannot figure out these conditions and come up with a clear answer that the poor user has to find by navigating this maze? Give me a break! This is disgusting. Only people who want to be deceived, want to be lied to will believe this. Either MA does not know how to write computer programs, or he knows it is not possible and keeps beating around the bush. I said it before. The more time you try learning this stuff, the more time you spend losing money. The result is the same that his system does not work.

In other words, the forecast arrays will mostly not agree with the Reversals. So when the Reversals are good and you trade them, then you ignore the forecast arrays, fine. If you however take them seriously, then you do not trade and lose an opportunity. On the other hand, if the Reversals are bad, then it is your fault if you ignored the forecast arrays. Pick your poison.

What was the timeframe you used to determine if the daily/weekly/monthly elected reversal was a failure?

Very simple. For daily I compared the next day close with the current day close. For weekly I compared the next week end close with the elected end of week close. For monthly I applied one month. If the 1% rule applied, and / or if there was a superposition event, then I assumed a trade in the opposite direction. This would normally give more favorable results. I know that this could be negated by Armstrong's instructions that I wrote about in my previous post, but there is no way to do this in a systematic fashion - it is chaos. I actually aborted weekly reversal trades, according to Armstrong rules - chaos. This effectively converts weekly reversals into daily reversals so to speak, defeating their purpose. Result? Sharply reduced profits / losses. It is more like not trading, losing opportunities. So I decided to stick with a simple reproducible scheme which is a kind of an average, the most objective way from my perspective. Otherwise it cannot be systematic. Last not least, new reversals are elected on a weekly cycle every week, so one has to keep in step with that. That is perhaps the strongest argument for trading them like that. Same for daily. New reversals are elected every day, often in opposite directions. So I cannot evaluate them for longer than their respective period. I have accumulated a very large number of reversals over the years, and I have to say that volume is really necessary for this evaluation. For example, there are weeks where the stock market rallies and Socrates elects bullish reversals. If it is lucky, then there are a number of good reversals this week because a large number of symbols that were available to me are correlated with the stock market, perhaps even Crude Oil, making this a good week. Then the next week it is the opposite, all bad. I found that the monthly reversals are just as terrible as the daily ones. The biggest problem is that with a number of symbols to choose from, Socrates will not tell you which one to trade. MA and his staff always cherry pick the successful recent ones after the fact and say: See, what an amazing system. Nobody talks about the other 50% - the bad signals and trades.

Socrates should provide historical dumps of past elected reversals so everybody can assess past performance like I did. Honestly, doing this is a full time job. Other financial services keep a record of good and bad trades, such as etfguide.com. Not doing this is dishonest. If other manual services can provide this, an automated system like Socrates can provide it with much less effort. There is really no excuse.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
DanB1
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 66
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 11, 2019, 06:53:36 AM
Last edit: June 11, 2019, 08:59:41 PM by DanB1
 #5478

I have read so many pages of this and other blogs over the weekend and came to 1 conclusion, I fell for the oldest scam in the world: somebody claiming to be able to predict the future and stupid me paying him for this information.
I went over all my trades in the last months and now (thanks to all your posts) with a more critical look, I can say that Socrates has not contributed much, if any at all.
There were trades where I used Socrates that were successful and made me a profit. But using the exact same set-up (reversal+array) the next trade would make a loss.

I also believe that OR Martin Armstrong is a terrible teacher who can not explain his own creation, OR his creation does not work well and you only end up with mediocre results.
But if it does work, why not show it once and for all and post a series of trades in a video, do it live, put it online and this whole blog of 274 pages is useless and all his critics will clear off with their tail between their legs.
But MA will never do that because he can't.

For a long time I thought it was me, not smart enough to understand this system. But WTF, I'm 40yrs old and financially independent due to my trades/investing in the past.
I really want to thank MA_talk, Trulycoined and others. Thanks guys, you made me open my eyes!


Snillegutt
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 11, 2019, 07:06:05 AM
 #5479

The sad thing is that MA always talks about corruption, but in the end, he himself is just as corrupt as his declared “enemies”. Any honest man will look for fails in his system, so that he can adjust those fails and make a better system.

Any honest engineer, philosopher, politician, pedagog, any honest person in any profession will always try to correct and make better. When MA does not speak openly on his blog on all the counseling from Socrates that do NOT work or explain why, or something – it is simply because he had a taste of fame and wants to keep it, even if its built on sand.

Honesty is a rare quality.
trulycoined
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 54
Merit: 5


View Profile
June 11, 2019, 12:08:35 PM
 #5480

I only ramped up my BS litmus test efforts where I was considering the Rome WEC. What MA talks about is VERY seductive. Especially the doom and gloom prophecies where you then feel "empowered" to know about this, escaping the proverbial tidal wave, while everyone else who wasn't as "enlightened" drowns.

MA's philosophy is almost cult-like where, as is typical with this story that feeds on some of the many psychological flaws in human behaviour, there is a big story of impending Armageddon and even the most intelligent and sceptical get swept up in the ecstasy of it all, sacrificing things or themselves so fervent are their beliefs in the "leader" and his prophecies.

Already increasing in scepticism having attended the Orlando WEC in 2018 (which was actually one of the reasons for attending as absurd as that sounds), the more I scrutinised MA, the more his story/model fell to pieces. The Socrates subscription was just an exercise in burning cash. It contains nothing of value or any advice that's tradeable. It has a map of "capital flows" and yet no explanation of how AE has access to such information (if it even exists). The private blog also contains content that isn't much different to any other analyst.

Financial reports/charts and trackers can be had for a similar price on Morningstar, which has a superior depth of information.

My theory for MA is he uses Socrates as the carrot to push his reports and events. Socrates is what drives excitement and intrigue, so making selling reports and event tickets easier. It's no different than those snake oil ads you see on FB where a "guru" FX trader, digital marketer or life coach offers a free book of "secrets" for a hugely discounted price with a promise of riches to come. Once you have committed to that, it then makes it infinitely easier to sell what they wanted to sell you in the first place - and that product is always 10-20x the cost of the original commitment - and is always about improving your today for a better life tomorrow. No different to MA's narrative.

This is predictable human behaviour in action, which I think is at the very core of MA's modus operandi. I actually think he has a better understanding of human nature than he does of economics, which is partly why he has been so successful in pushing his consulting products for the past 30-40 years. As soon as the SEC banned him from institutional investors - and/or his credibility was shot - the next most obvious target was retail investors, and here we are...

I have always felt that the ECM is simply an indicator of human nature. Since human nature is predictable, like the tide, you can predict that it will come in and then go out, before coming back in again. At a macro level it makes it easier to predict. Example would be a bank run if say a major bank in a Western country went bust. Then it's timing, and that too can be guessed correctly some of the time. This might explain why MA gets some calls correct, while being wrong on others. His website is purposefully badly designed, making it very difficult to find old articles where he made incorrect predictions.

On this note, not that I know much at all about bitcoin, here is another predictable outcome: when the next major banking crisis hits, the price of bitcoin will rocket. Soon after, those in the know who can hack exchanges who are also anticipating this, will execute a massive hack and steal a huge sum of newly invested money.

The above requires no AI, just an understanding of typical human behaviour and the motivators behind that behaviour.

A lot of the concepts MA covers are not new. Many other writers, philosophers and economists have written about similar things long before MA got bored working for gov and decided to become a consultant to the financial world.

I also wonder if MA, having spent a lifetime pushing the ECM, has found it no longer works (if it ever did) or whatever data he had access to pre-jail time is no longer available to ensure more accurate forecasts. Destitute, and with a heavy dose of confirmation bias, he is continuing to push the "Forecaster" narrative, even though it is basically all guess work, or a big game of truth, truth, BS - knowing it sells expensive reports and events to a retail audience desperate for an explanation to the bizarre suicide of Western Civilisation. And that is the end game here.

If he hears of only 1/100 successes from his readers or clients based on Socrates/his predictions, that only further fuels the confirmation bias and so he continues with his "forecaster" narrative, while never scrutinising the ECM, where every model of any complex system requires continued testing and optimisation to maintain accuracy. He also fools himself into thinking he is doing nothing wrong by preaching nonsense to his followers.

MA is an interesting person for an alternative economic outlook, which I believe will happen, such as the end of Western Civilisation. Whether that will be in 2032, we will see. I wonder if it might come to pass with barely a whimper like a lot of his other predictions. However, using his ECM or Socrates to trade - it holds no value otherwise there would solid evidence, of which none exists.
Pages: « 1 ... 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 [274] 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 ... 328 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!