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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615937 times)
AnonymousCoder
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June 17, 2019, 02:27:16 AM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:04:36 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5521

Simplicity is better

I started shorting Brazil last week when it had the temp high. Low risk high reward. Simple to find.

No single signal in Socrates about it, actually it is still bullish from what I have heard. So far, profitable even while the start was a bit scary.

So what would have happened had I traded Socrates?

Weekly reversals elected 2019-06-07, traded for a week Friday to Friday close 2019-06-07 to 2019-06-14

$DXY weekly bearish 1% loss
EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
GDAX weekly bullish 0.4% gain
SENSEX weekly bullish 0.4% loss
USD/CAD weekly bearish 1.0% loss
USD/CHF weekly bearish 1.2% loss
Visa weekly bullish 0.2% loss
Cotton weekly bearish 0.5% loss
Heating oil weekly bearish 0.3% loss
Natural gas weekly bearish 2.1% loss

That is a fairly good cross section of the market, of what was elected, I guess. One winner.

I would not want to extend this depressing experiment by another two weeks waiting while these trades come right while I can have a profit within a week with something better.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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June 17, 2019, 02:47:40 AM
Last edit: June 17, 2019, 03:29:22 AM by bleachberu
 #5522

Hi All,

I found this thread when someone posted on the slack channel that I follow. Basically the channel where a few of us from WEC hang out and discuss the system. I'm also subscribed to his basic membership.

Spent the past week reading the last 20% of this long thread and thank all the contributors for sharing the light on MA and the system. I've also had my frustrations with the Socrates system. All the reasons have been well explained already, so no need for me to add. The net result, it is not usable for trading. I'm also disappointed because when I first learned of MA (from work colleagues), I was amazed at his story and naively got sucked into the hype, attending 2 WECs in Asia when he had them here. (was frustrated with that also because Day 1 was just blog recap day but I enjoyed meeting other like minded attendees and made friends). Naturally, like many, I was extremely interested in the so-called Dow sling-shot move. I missed the GFC opportunity to invest and plan to go all-in on the next, which is overdue in my view due to QE. Hence, that desire made me more excited about his call because it resonated with what I wanted for myself...

As for the private blogs, I do find them interesting occasionally but again, the results are mixed at best. I do copy them out to powerpoint, just to keep track of his calls but as you many of you know, the gaps between the reversals are often so wide that it not helpful.

For the public blogs, he does post interesting stuff once in a while and helps me to look at the world with a less than rosy lens so I continue to read them. Some of the blogs posting are completely bizzare to me at least, so I just shrug and move on.

Having said all that, I am still subscribed to his macro view on a few things (they haven't played out 100% but it seems to be heading in the direction he's been calling for but again timing is everything right?):

1. Euro bearishness and ECB/Draghi role in the bond market/debt consolidation issue
2. Rise of populist parties in Europe, eventually leading to a breakup of the EU (I first read about the immigration issues in Europe causing strain from his blog to be fair)
3. Next crisis to stem from the broken/zombie pension system which requires the magic 8% return to satisfy their future obligations as baby boomers start retiring and drawing down
4. Climate change - haven't made up my mind entirely on this one but it does seem that all the early research (Al Gore stuff) is baloney and I do observe increasingly extreme weather patterns globally

The reason I still subscribe to some of the above is because I do have a background in finance and currently work in markets. These issues do make sense to me and interestingly, never discussed formerly on wall street. I'm always a student of the markets and look to external views to supplement my wall street ones (and avoid group think).

Anyway, many thanks to all here who have opened my eyes. I'm going to start taking MA/Socrates with a tablespoon of salt from now on. Will keep my $15 subscription but no more conferences for me.

Cheers,
B
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June 17, 2019, 02:55:28 AM
 #5523

Separately, anyone here follow worldscycle institute? It's another paid service but with free blogs. I'm not subscribed to its paid service yet, just tracking it's calls.

Think he got 2017 wrong big time but the author did admit it...can see there's a wealth of info that's using EW etc. More conventional and no deep state stuff conspiracy stuff. Just markets and EW counting.

Cheers,
B
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June 17, 2019, 03:01:23 AM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:04:50 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5524

...

Anyway, many thanks to all here who have opened my eyes. I'm going to start taking MA/Socrates with a tablespoon of salt from now on. Will keep my $15 subscription but no more conferences for me.


Good approach. I would recommend to search the original material that he is copying from / aggregating on his blog. He publishes 3rd party but original material that is not necessarily easy to find. One has to give him credit for that. As far as economics is concerned and the theme of western civilization declining, nothing new. Much more to learn from Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Julian Assange. The themes are loss of accountability, the fundamental problem of delegation and the need to regulate the capitalist system which is exploitative by nature. The interesting thing to me is that Assange actually has a solution: Transparency. Well, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts recommends to go to Russia. Not too bad a call when I look at their stock market. But is this an option we are looking for?


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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June 17, 2019, 03:56:15 AM
 #5525

TrulyCoined, yes that was the post I'd been trying to find about his Apple high call.

His ideas/fundamental analysis is quite interesting, and as mentioned before, does merit a wider audience. If he wrote an economic textbook as a magus opus, it would be great.

Ray Dalio does something similar to Armstrong in that he analyzes past economies and correlates various happenings in those time periods and then compares them with today. I doubt his data goes as far back as Armstrong's but it'd be more reliable. I still think that IF Armstrong had reliable and comprehensive data and really did what he purported to do (analyze metal grain content in coins, correlate the commodities and rates and so on from ancient times, etc.) then Socrates MIGHT actually work as claimed. But such a project would take a team or several lifetimes and a huge amount of money. And a lot of the data would have to be obtained through a variety of means, as the internet would not be nearly enough. I don't think anything like that will come to fruition, and I don't believe his database is bigger than Google's or some such thing as he had claimed. His ideas are really amazing but its such a shame he wasted it all on nonsense.

The Reversal performance is still bothering me because I want to see them for myself- I remember them as mostly good. Armstrong may cherry pick the ones he feels more confident about, but if it helps the end user, that's beneficial even if it isn't because of Socrates. I think I'll go through the Private Blogs and put down all the Reversal calls in a spreadsheet and put in columns: how close it gets to the next Reversal, max drawdown, max profit, date of the call, type of Reversal, Reversal timeframe type, and so on. Again, I can confirm that the Reversals did well in the last correction and not only would they have gotten the user a profit, but they would have closed the short on the lows (as that was a Reversal that one would have to wait till elected to re-enter a short which never happened) and eventually a bullish Reversal was elected.
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June 17, 2019, 04:49:39 AM
 #5526

Simplicity is better

I started shorting Brazil last week when it had the temp high. Low risk high reward. Simple to find.

No single signal in Socrates about it, actually it is still bullish from what I have heard. So far, profitable even while the start was a bit scary.

So what would have happened had I traded Socrates?

Weekly reversals elected 2019-06-07, traded for a week Friday to Friday close 2019-06-07 to 2019-06-14

$DXY weekly bearish 1% loss
EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
GDAX weekly bullish 0.4% loss
SENSEX weekly bullish 0.4% loss
USD/CAD weekly bearish 1.0% loss
USD/CHF weekly bearish 1.2% loss
Visa weekly bullish 0.2% loss
Cotton weekly bearish 0.5% loss
Heating oil weekly bearish 0.3% loss
Natural gas weekly bearish 2.1% loss

That is a fairly good cross section of the market, of what was elected, I guess. No winner.

I would not want to extend this depressing experiment by another two weeks waiting while these trades come right while I can have a profit within a week with something better.

It's great that you can make a profit from your trades, but this forum is about the merits of the Socrates system.  From your posts I can see that you are claiming martin is a fraud from your experiment, but as I said before, in his manual he said,

"The election of a reversal normally indicated that the expected high or low that should
unfold could take place in as short a time span as 1 to 3 units of time (i.e. daily, weekly,
monthly, or quarterly). Therefore, a low may develop the very next day following the
election of a Daily Bearish Reversal or within the next few days. The same is true for all
price activity levels."  

As you can see he said that an elected reversal may not come to fruition until 3 units of time after the election.  Your experiment proves nothing unless you go by his timeframe of 3 time units.  Your collection of data is truly is impressive, if it is what you say it is.  But your methodology is faulty and therefore proves nothing.  For example, lets say a weekly bullish reversal is elected but the expected raise in price doesn't come until 3 weeks after the reversal.  Your experiment would label that as a failed reversal even though it was successful by martin's method.  If you truly want to prove he is a fraud, make the data available so that we can put the final nail in his coffin.  If the experiment fails by the timeframe of 3 units, then he has no wiggle room, we will have successfully and conclusively shown that he is a fraud by his own methodology.  I assume you want to "save" people from martin.  If we can prove his 3 units of time is faulty I will be completely convinced he is a fraud, but until we can successfully prove it, I won't be satisfied taking your word for it.  Like I said, you won't have to put in any additional work, I will do all the input for the additional 2 time units.  Also like I said, if you don't want to make it publicly available, enable private messages from newbies and I'll message you my email.  If you don't want to private message, I'll post a throwaway email on this message board.  I just want to fully prove he is a fraud, but I need your help.  You have the data, I have the methodology.  
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June 17, 2019, 05:02:22 AM
 #5527

In regards to my previous post, I'd also like to add Expected Profit and Potential Loss. Expected Profit would be the distance between the current price at close of the election of a Reversal and the next Reversal. Potential Loss would be a stop behind the Reversal after election. This is more subjective, as stops are different and Socrates/Armstrong does not have a specific system for that. Also the R:R for each trade can be added beforehand and the ones better than 1:1 might hypothetically be traded.

It's just that I don't remember bad things about the Reversal performance in themselves, which is the only point of doubt. Even the Euro short had a Monthly Bearish which it bounced off from perfectly. The long side couldn't have been traded but it was the correct point to close shorts. I want to be as objective about this as possible using purely Socrates, so there won't be things like the 1% rule, arrays, trading against Reversals, and so on. Only election based trade performance will be analyzed. The calls will only be based on the ones in the Private Blog. I noticed that Socrates kept changing some of the Weekly Reversals in the textual analysis and so I wasn't sure which was the 'real' or 'fixed' one. It may be that it can do technical analysis well even if everything else is trash. We'll see.
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June 17, 2019, 05:13:50 AM
Last edit: June 17, 2019, 05:36:37 AM by olegrey
 #5528

In regards to my previous post, I'd also like to add Expected Profit and Potential Loss. Expected Profit would be the distance between the current price at close of the election of a Reversal and the next Reversal. Potential Loss would be a stop behind the Reversal after election. This is more subjective, as stops are different and Socrates/Armstrong does not have a specific system for that. Also the R:R for each trade can be added beforehand and the ones better than 1:1 might hypothetically be traded.

It's just that I don't remember bad things about the Reversal performance in themselves, which is the only point of doubt. Even the Euro short had a Monthly Bearish which it bounced off from perfectly. The long side couldn't have been traded but it was the correct point to close shorts. I want to be as objective about this as possible using purely Socrates, so there won't be things like the 1% rule, arrays, trading against Reversals, and so on. Only election based trade performance will be analyzed. The calls will only be based on the ones in the Private Blog. I noticed that Socrates kept changing some of the Weekly Reversals in the textual analysis and so I wasn't sure which was the 'real' or 'fixed' one. It may be that it can do technical analysis well even if everything else is trash. We'll see.

I appreciate what you are doing! I understand this undertaking is a big ordeal that will take a lot of time. My only ask is that you make it publicly available so that we can analyze your findings for ourselves.  I mean what's the point of posting findings if we can't go through the data and come to the same conclusions.
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June 17, 2019, 05:41:10 AM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:05:05 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5529

...

I appreciate what you are doing! I understand this undertaking is a big ordeal that will take a lot of time. My only ask i's that you make it publicly available so that we can analyze your findings for ourselves.  I mean what's the point of posting findings if we can't go through the data and come to the same conclusions.

I make my claims based on logic such as saying that the Socrates system does not tell the user what to trade, for how long to trade it, with what stop loss and so on. So even if we had all the data, we would still not be able to test it because there are no objective test criteria.

If nobody has historical data because the Socrates system does not provide it, then the Socrates system is flawed because it hides the historical data from us.

The burden of proof is on the Socrates system not on us.

If I do not provide the data now then that does not prove that the Socrates system is correct. If I provide the data then anybody could say my data is flawed because it cannot be corroborated because Socrates does not provide it. I could have just made it up. And as I said, it provides an attack surface where Armstrong proxies can come forward with their well known beat around the bush forecast array method where they will perhaps say that this and that weekly reversal should have been traded only for a day because there was a strong turning point on Monday.


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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June 17, 2019, 09:36:04 AM
 #5530

...

Anyway, many thanks to all here who have opened my eyes. I'm going to start taking MA/Socrates with a tablespoon of salt from now on. Will keep my $15 subscription but no more conferences for me.


Good approach. I would recommend to search the original material that he is copying from / aggregating on his blog. He publishes 3rd party but original material that is not necessarily easy to find. One has to give him credit for that. As far as economics is concerned and the theme of western civilization declining, nothing new. Much more to learn from Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Julian Assange. The themes are loss of accountability, the fundamental problem of delegation and the need to regulate the capitalist system which is exploitative by nature. The interesting thing to me is that Assange actually has a solution: Transparency. Well, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts recommends to go to Russia. Not too bad a call when I look at their stock market. But is this an option we are looking for?

I would take anything and everything with bags of salt. The problem with paid stuff in my mind is that they want to feed you crap even though there's nothing to feed. You know I actually preferred back in the day when you paid for things and they actually told you there's nothing to deliver sometimes, because there's nothing to deliver.

They feel the pressure because they promised.

But forget the promises and there's a lot to learn from the materials. Or, if you don't believe them, a lot to be entertained about.

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June 17, 2019, 11:39:03 AM
 #5531

I have been trading markets for more than 20 years but in my experience support/resistance is not 1 single point but an area of support/resistance.
But with MA's reversals, if a bullish reversal is at 100 and we close at 100.05 then we have elected it.
Not sure how you guys think about this but when I look in charts for resistance and support than I can see it mostly around certain numbers, not exactly 1 point.


Does anyone know how reversals are calculated?
I see that they are often close to general support and resistance, area's where there has been some action in the past including highs/lows, closings and/or openings.
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June 17, 2019, 12:43:46 PM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:05:16 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5532

I have been trading markets for more than 20 years but in my experience support/resistance is not 1 single point but an area of support/resistance.
But with MA's reversals, if a bullish reversal is at 100 and we close at 100.05 then we have elected it.
Not sure how you guys think about this but when I look in charts for resistance and support than I can see it mostly around certain numbers, not exactly 1 point.


Does anyone know how reversals are calculated?
I see that they are often close to general support and resistance, area's where there has been some action in the past including highs/lows, closings and/or openings.


Not exactly of course because I don't have his code. Read my previous post at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51469252#msg51469252

When you get too deep into this you actually forget how to trade and become dependent / victim of this system.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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June 17, 2019, 02:32:25 PM
 #5533

...

I appreciate what you are doing! I understand this undertaking is a big ordeal that will take a lot of time. My only ask i's that you make it publicly available so that we can analyze your findings for ourselves.  I mean what's the point of posting findings if we can't go through the data and come to the same conclusions.

I make my claims based on logic such as saying that the Socrates system does not tell the user what to trade, for how long to trade it, with what stop loss and so on. So even if we had all the data, we would still not be able to test it because there are no objective test criteria.

If nobody has historical data because the Socrates system does not provide it, then the Socrates system is flawed because it hides the historical data from us.

The burden of proof is on the Socrates system not on us.

If I do not provide the data now then that does not prove that the Socrates system is correct. If I provide the data then anybody could say my data is flawed because it cannot be corroborated because Socrates does not provide it. I could have just made it up. And as I said, it provides an attack surface where Armstrong proxies can come forward with their well known beat around the bush forecast array method where they will perhaps say that this and that weekly reversal should have been traded only for a day because there was a strong turning point on Monday.

Obviously socrates should provide historical data, but that isn't happening.  I just want to test what Martin says that the reversal system will produce the expected result within 3 time units, nothing to do with the forcast arrays.  Also, did you buy 10+ premium subscriptions for the purpose of collecting reversals? If I could buy this many subscriptions I would, but I don't have the funds.  But you have this great dataset that is going to waste because you are afraid of some criticisms from "Armstrong proxies".  It sounds like you are trying to take a scientific approach with your experiment.  Well this is how science works, you provide your results WITH underlying data so others can scutinize and design further experiments based on your results and data.  I'm trying to do this because I see a flaw in your methodology.  The methodology I am proposing fixes your flaw, and can bring further understanding to this whole reversal system
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June 17, 2019, 02:49:32 PM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:05:25 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5534

...
Obviously socrates should provide historical data, but that isn't happening.
...

Unsubscribe from Socrates and email them that you would be interested after they provide the historical data. It is peanuts for them. The difficulty is to generate the reports and the web GUI. Dumping the data of a system that has been around for 30 years into a text file is not worth even talking about. If they don't do it, then it is proof they have something to hide.


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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June 17, 2019, 03:33:46 PM
 #5535

...
Obviously socrates should provide historical data, but that isn't happening.
...

Unsubscribe from Socrates and email them that you would be interested after they provide the historical data. It is peanuts for them. The difficulty is to generate the reports and the web GUI. Dumping the data of a system that has been around for 30 years into a text file is not worth even talking about. If they don't do it, then it is proof they have something to hide.

I haven't never been subscribed to socrates.  I have just been very interested in his work and have looked around for some proof on his system.  Again did you really buy over 10+ premium subscriptions just to collect reversals, and then not share any of that valuable data?
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June 17, 2019, 03:59:08 PM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:05:34 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5536

...
I haven't never been subscribed to socrates.  I have just been very interested in his work and have looked around for some proof on his system.  Again did you really buy over 10+ premium subscriptions just to collect reversals, and then not share any of that valuable data?
The reversals are in the summary reports, you don't need the premium subscription for those. The reversals have been available before the premium version came out. Therefore, we can go back in time further.



Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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June 17, 2019, 04:19:55 PM
 #5537

...
I haven't never been subscribed to socrates.  I have just been very interested in his work and have looked around for some proof on his system.  Again did you really buy over 10+ premium subscriptions just to collect reversals, and then not share any of that valuable data?
The reversals are in the summary reports, you don't need the premium subscription for those. The reversals have been available before the premium version came out. Therefore, we can go back in time further.


I was under the impression that the initial investor version of socrates had no reversals.  I also was under the impression that the summary reports were just high level information of market behavior with detailed reports having select reversals included, and premium analysis had all the reversals for the select market.  Like I said, I haven't subscribed to socrates so forgive me if I'm wrong
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June 17, 2019, 04:30:47 PM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:05:44 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5538

I was under the impression that the initial investor version of socrates had no reversals.  I also was under the impression that the summary reports were just high level information of market behavior with detailed reports having select reversals included, and premium analysis had all the reversals for the select market.  Like I said, I haven't subscribed to socrates so forgive me if I'm wrong

The name of the lowest version of the report containing reversals has changed from "SOCRATES SUMMARY ANALYSIS" to "SOCRATES Detailed Analysis" after the introduction of the premium version. You are right, there weren't reversals in the initial investor version but later on some time in between.


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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June 17, 2019, 05:15:38 PM
Last edit: June 17, 2019, 05:41:26 PM by rosousa
 #5539

...

I appreciate what you are doing! I understand this undertaking is a big ordeal that will take a lot of time. My only ask i's that you make it publicly available so that we can analyze your findings for ourselves.  I mean what's the point of posting findings if we can't go through the data and come to the same conclusions.

I make my claims based on logic such as saying that the Socrates system does not tell the user what to trade, for how long to trade it, with what stop loss and so on. So even if we had all the data, we would still not be able to test it because there are no objective test criteria.

If nobody has historical data because the Socrates system does not provide it, then the Socrates system is flawed because it hides the historical data from us.

The burden of proof is on the Socrates system not on us.

If I do not provide the data now then that does not prove that the Socrates system is correct. If I provide the data then anybody could say my data is flawed because it cannot be corroborated because Socrates does not provide it. I could have just made it up. And as I said, it provides an attack surface where Armstrong proxies can come forward with their well known beat around the bush forecast array method where they will perhaps say that this and that weekly reversal should have been traded only for a day because there was a strong turning point on Monday.

Obviously socrates should provide historical data, but that isn't happening.  I just want to test what Martin says that the reversal system will produce the expected result within 3 time units, nothing to do with the forcast arrays.  Also, did you buy 10+ premium subscriptions for the purpose of collecting reversals? If I could buy this many subscriptions I would, but I don't have the funds.  But you have this great dataset that is going to waste because you are afraid of some criticisms from "Armstrong proxies".  It sounds like you are trying to take a scientific approach with your experiment.  Well this is how science works, you provide your results WITH underlying data so others can scutinize and design further experiments based on your results and data.  I'm trying to do this because I see a flaw in your methodology.  The methodology I am proposing fixes your flaw, and can bring further understanding to this whole reversal system

There´s no historical data to user to test maybe because Reversals as standalone investment approach, don´t work. Our research group have built-in Reversals calculation inputs in our software to back-test it. But if you just want to test Reversals election entry/exit system you could just use a simple Excel spreadsheet to test it too. Our back-testing suggest some evidence that results are better than using simple trendlines support/resistance/pivots breakout approach, but NOT good enough to be profitable as standalone system.

Additional, one of the main Reversals features is that they change dynamically if the market make new highs/lows in next time units, so without forward looking capacity from a future teller or something that enable to confirm on the present that in the future the Reversal level will remain valid, it have limited use to trading/investing, specially the Monthly reversals which up to 1 month after election the system can come-back and change the Reversal level or cancel the election or simple change from Bullish to Bearish reversal election (as it happen recently on Crude OIL market). If your broker don´t allow you to change a entry made 1 month ago, you better of not use Reversals as standalone investment approach).

During the last century had been develop awesome work on financial markets - Elliot Waves, Fibonacci, Gann, Larry Williams, John Murphy just to name a few awesome work on the area that we had been able to test together with the Reversals...
1) ALL of them have some validity/value
2) some of them used together are very profitable
3) No amazing indicator/Reversal system or whatever is good enough to be used profitable as standalone trading approach


I started to regular share on twitter some potential trading opportunities that use Reversals, Cycles alongside with other back-tested tools that work very well combined with the Reversals, be my guest to look into it
https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA

RS
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June 17, 2019, 05:57:48 PM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:05:54 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5540

...
Additional, one of the main Reversals features is that they change dynamically if the market make new highs/lows in next time units, so without forward looking capacity from a future teller or something that enable to confirm on the present that in the future the Reversal level will remain valid, it have limited use to trading/investing, specially the Monthly reversals which up to 1 month after election the system can come-back and change the Reversal level or cancel the election or simple change from Bullish to Bearish reversal election (as it happen recently on Crude OIL market). If your broker don´t allow you to change a entry made 1 month ago, you better of not use Reversals as standalone investment approach).
...

Some of these contraptions are called superposition events, and they are a fraud. I wrote about them before.

It is real fun to read this being confirmed by multiple parties. It is trickery. There are so many ambiguous escape hatches in the reversal system, that will make it appear successful in hindsight after having borrowed information from the future. These tricks have been exposed here thoroughly, and this alone is sufficient to discredit the system. Based on the rules that Armstrong has published, the system cannot be used as a successful trading tool, and it is not possible to test the system based on these escape rules, obviously, because that would perhaps result in a 100% success rate.


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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