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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 617554 times)
AnonymousCoder
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June 12, 2019, 02:40:38 AM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:08:12 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5481

What is this Socrates system then and where does it fit in your trading activities?

Reversals, Forecast Arrays, indicators such as resistance, support, moving averages, momentum, energy and signals such as "False reaction on this level", and the pattern recognition in the Global Market Watch are all the same thing. They are different representations or views of the same historical data in a SINGLE dimension.

This single dimension is only the price, the single time series of the price of the symbol that it looks at. On the other hand, without all this, YOU can see everything of it in a chart representing this time series, perhaps in multiple time frames. A single data series, a single dimension.

So when you are trying to use that system to identify a turning point, or derive any other critical trading decision, then you are asking that the combination of views as described above, views of a single dimension of the whole trading universe, will give you that answer. And Martin Armstrong is doing EVERYTHING he can possibly do to maintain that illusion in you so you get into a deep dependency on that single dimensional system, hoping that some magic in it will actually achieve your trading objectives.

The irony is that you need to pay extra money for every additional symbol you want to explore, still in a single dimension.

Now say if you don't have Socrates, you are spending more time exploring the universe around that symbol you are going to trade. You spend more time reading news, you spend more time learning about other markets to watch that may have an influence on the price development of your symbol. You are actually learning more about how to trade. You are moving far beyond what Socrates can see because it ever only looks at a single time series.

I recently thought that I would want to use Socrates to expand my horizon by using the capital flow heat map as a bird's eye view before drilling down. As I pointed out in a previous post, I found that it is broken because it has daily, weekly and monthly time frames mixed up. When I asked Socrates support, I was told that it isn't meant to be used for trading.

You as a trader, can handle 100 times more complexity than what this stupid system can do. It is basically 30 years behind.

Or, have you ever seen in any of its reports, that the current symbol behavior is described in relation to, say for simplicity, the $DXY US Dollar index or any other currency?

This system is so simple, that due to its simplicity, it can handle any number of symbols because it handles them all in isolation, in a single dimension.


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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June 12, 2019, 07:14:34 AM
Last edit: June 12, 2019, 08:51:25 AM by DanB1
 #5482

You are right, there is never any mention of, for instance, the USD in other reports. Although there is a big inverse correlation between the USD and Gold but I've never seen that it gets mentioned.

Speaking about reports, I bought the "2018 year end"report for $750. You would say that, as we are now halfway into the year, some of it must have been manifested...
Regarding the DJI it mentioned that if we close in 2018 under the 2017 closing of 24,719.22 this would be a warning that the market is entering 2019 weak.
So 2018 closed on 23,062.40 but from January the market went up up up, reaching ~26,696 in April.
So not only did Socrates missed the move, it thought that 2019 would start weak.
It's the same for other indices as well. The report is extremely bearish on the DAX, targeting it at 9,300. This could still happen, but so far it's up ~15% YTD (in €), at ~12,155.

We also have to bear in mind that in January 2019 we had the biggest ever short position in the SPX (CFTC Non-Commercial)
Short positions are hugely important and going long when the whole market is long, or short when the whole market is short is never a good idea.
But I don't think Socrates includes short/long positions. At least, I've never seen it.
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June 12, 2019, 08:24:32 AM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:08:26 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5483

There is another interesting one:

The GMW combined with Reversals. I was getting interested in https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/how-can-socrates-forecast-the-biogen-crash-today/.

I wrote a scan that matches the BIIB pattern at the time. Typical single dimension type of thing, but perfect match. Just a few days ago, that scan found Tableau Software NASDAQ:DATA. If it was in Socrates, it would have been flagged the same, including the Bearish Reversal. It really has the same pattern. The declining downtrend line, the sharpening wave, the high close. But Socrates does not know the difference between Biotechnology and Software Development. See what happened Huh


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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June 12, 2019, 10:10:37 AM
Last edit: June 12, 2019, 10:36:48 AM by rosousa
 #5484

Who forecast that the Yield on 10-Year Treasury note would fall bellow 2.5% this year? Martin? NO Socrates? NO
Not a single market forecaster/analyst respondent in January´s Wall Street Journal survey of economists predicted that:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1138184175201193984

You know who called the timing of the last recessions? Nobody. Not the Fed, not economists. Why? Because nobody knows. Confidence and cycles are very tricky things. In case of the Fed I would go further and say that, even if they knew, which they don't, they wouldn't tell anybody!

Now back to primary reason you using Socrates/MA forecasts as investment/trading tool. Do you know what is the forecasts hit rate of MA in last 4 years? No more than 30%, so clearly you have negative expectation of using it as a trading/investing tool.

I will not comment on forecast accuracy of Socrates as it don´t forecast anything, is just a software created +30 years on MS-DOS disaster code & full of bugs but back then that created one of the 1st financial markets historic database of prices and some few technical indicators, on the time that most of the exchanges floor traders markets resources were made by pen+paper. Cutting-edge breaking 30 years ago, underdog nowadays to any current available technical/financial software available on the market.  

If you believe that GOD, super-computer or any person on earth could reach a hit Rate forecasting financial markets of +80%, why do you think he/she will give it away for free on his blog or sell that information instead of leverage their own capital with huge debt and put their own $ on that very accurate forecasts?

Over last 4 years, a small group of high skilled/experienced persons on different areas from Trading, risk management, software engineers, code writers, we have back-test +90% market approaches, theories, strategies including reversals, cycles, Elliot waves, fibonacci, Gann, Pii cycles and all kind of technical analysis tools (which all are basically derivation of the same thing - price, volume and cycles/seasonal information, which is the main information available on all markets). The main conclusion we had reached is that as we try to build a system that reach 70-80% winning trades, the profit of system would drop exponential as the number of trades/year would be reduced exponential and lot of confirmations needed to +70% win rate on trades bring up exponential rise in price risk (the % risk that you have to take or simply speaking the risk/reward ratio will be too high and getting exponential worst as the systems approach +75% winning trades). So, with that in mind, the Win Rate of system isn´t a good measure of their performance, risk/reward ratio or profit factor is much more useful.

I have attended 2 WEC´s already and wasted lot of hours reading MA blog posts and I never ear/read in  
it the profit factor/ risk/reward ratio of any back-test in any instrument in Socrates, but read/ear several claims that Socrates never wrong, he´s always right which is nonsense to anyone with a basic understanding that financial markets are the most competitive markets in the world, so even the best traders/investors edge is very small and of course very far from 100%.

We have to give, merit to MA in one thing. He´s a hell of a salesmen/marketeer! He´s the only person in the world that can Sell a market history review class (WEC conferences) for $2750 or having people paying minimum +$2000/year to beta test 1 instrument/market access in the Socrates database/ black box system. He have top-notch charisma, when you´re close to him and ear him speaking you completely forget that what he´s saying can´t be real, isn´t possible on earth a system/super-computer that is always right or anything close to it.

RS  
https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA

  


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June 12, 2019, 02:19:12 PM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:08:38 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5485

Thank you rosousa for putting things into perspective.

The tools of a modern trading platform are better than Socrates because of speed of access and number of dimensions and flexibility. Still, with one of the best, the scripting language cannot even hold a single variable value (getting corrupted). See https://stackoverflow.com/questions/56518594/how-to-create-a-variable-that-retains-its-value.


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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June 12, 2019, 03:14:57 PM
 #5486

@rosousa  ECM Slack Groups ? I would be interested to join.

+1

2 of them are private groups but ECM-Traders slack group I can send invitations to anyone who wants to join, just send me your email in a pvt message and you will receive a Slack invitation to join ECM-Traders.

Rosousa, pvt message sent
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June 12, 2019, 05:50:54 PM
 #5487

I have read so many pages of this and other blogs over the weekend and came to 1 conclusion, I fell for the oldest scam in the world: somebody claiming to be able to predict the future and stupid me paying him for this information.
I went over all my trades in the last months and now (thanks to all your posts) with a more critical look, I can say that Socrates has not contributed much, if any at all.
There were trades where I used Socrates that were successful and made me a profit. But using the exact same set-up (reversal+array) the next trade would make a loss.

I also believe that OR Martin Armstrong is a terrible teacher who can not explain his own creation, OR his creation does not work well and you only end up with mediocre results.
But if it does work, why not show it once and for all and post a series of trades in a video, do it live, put it online and this whole blog of 274 pages is useless and all his critics will clear off with their tail between their legs.
But MA will never do that because he can't.

For a long time I thought it was me, not smart enough to understand this system. But WTF, I'm 40yrs old and financially independent due to my trades/investing in the past.
I really want to thank MA_talk, Trulycoined and others. Thanks guys, you made me open my eyes!




DanB1, I was exactly just like you, if not more.

Even when I'm far familiar with Artificial Intelligence than average people, knowing that it is indeed possible to create such system (given sufficient ACCURATE data and computational power), I still fell for Armstrong's scam.

And it just takes anybody to look at what Armstrong provides OBJECTIVELY without any confirmation bias to figure out the truth.

Of course, part of the problem is that we always think that there is more information lacking because we didn't pay subscription, or didn't pay the Pro level, or didn't buy the specific report, or didn't attend WEC conferences, and thought that we are not evaluating him with complete information.

But it is here on this forum, where we all gather to contribute information, blog/internet search, and trading experiences with Armstrong's Socrates, and figure out jointly that

Quote
Martin Armstrong in all likelihood is just a BIG SCAM that provides ZERO useful/profitable trading information (short nor long term).

Sure, I don't deny that some of his views and predictions (taking out of context based on his timeframe) are correct or may eventually come true.

However, a human doesn't really live to 100 years to verify some of his claims..  If the western civilization collapses 500 years from now instead of 2032/2033, I'm telling you that trading/investing based on that "2032 knowledge" will almost certainly make you POOR.

In a way, all predictions, even the most non-sensible ones, could come true, if given long enough time-frame.  But it is exactly the CORRECT timing that will make you RICH, well, assuming that you know that before it happens.

And definitely Martin Armstrong is NOT giving anybody the right timing.



Honestly, I wish somebody has told me all these 10+ years ago, so that I wouldn't need to suffer all the unnecessary trading losses due to Armstrong.  And I'm here posting (and made http://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/), so that another fellow trader/investor won't regret believing in Armstrong's BS, 10 years from now.

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June 12, 2019, 06:25:04 PM
 #5488

Who forecast that the Yield on 10-Year Treasury note would fall bellow 2.5% this year? Martin? NO Socrates? NO
Not a single market forecaster/analyst respondent in January´s Wall Street Journal survey of economists predicted that:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1138184175201193984

....
Over last 4 years, a small group of high skilled/experienced persons on different areas from Trading, risk management, software engineers, code writers, we have back-test +90% market approaches, theories, strategies including reversals, cycles, Elliot waves, fibonacci, Gann, Pii cycles and all kind of technical analysis tools (which all are basically derivation of the same thing - price, volume and cycles/seasonal information, which is the main information available on all markets). The main conclusion we had reached is that as we try to build a system that reach 70-80% winning trades, the profit of system would drop exponential as the number of trades/year would be reduced exponential and lot of confirmations needed to +70% win rate on trades bring up exponential rise in price risk (the % risk that you have to take or simply speaking the risk/reward ratio will be too high and getting exponential worst as the systems approach +75% winning trades). So, with that in mind, the Win Rate of system isn´t a good measure of their performance, risk/reward ratio or profit factor is much more useful.

I have attended 2 WEC´s already and wasted lot of hours reading MA blog posts and I never ear/read in  
it the profit factor/ risk/reward ratio of any back-test in any instrument in Socrates, but read/ear several claims that Socrates never wrong, he´s always right which is nonsense to anyone with a basic understanding that financial markets are the most competitive markets in the world, so even the best traders/investors edge is very small and of course very far from 100%.

We have to give, merit to MA in one thing. He´s a hell of a salesmen/marketeer! He´s the only person in the world that can Sell a market history review class (WEC conferences) for $2750 or having people paying minimum +$2000/year to beta test 1 instrument/market access in the Socrates database/ black box system. He have top-notch charisma, when you´re close to him and ear him speaking you completely forget that what he´s saying can´t be real, isn´t possible on earth a system/super-computer that is always right or anything close to it.

RS  
https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA




THANK YOU for the information!!!
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June 12, 2019, 07:05:13 PM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:08:55 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5489

What is the Global Market Watch (GMW)?

For Martin Armstrong's own description, please see https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/understanding-the-global-market-watch/

The technology behind it is old. The service was available publicly at no charge between 2013-11-01 and 2016-01-20 daily, and at the time, he promised that he would make it available at no charge indefinitely. It is now part of Socrates, where the daily and weekly time frames are missing from the Investor version. So it is not free any more.

While MA notes that one should not trade based on the GMW, I offer the following logic: If it has any value whatsoever, then for a particular pattern, there must be, statistically, something specific about this pattern, such as differences in price movement in the future between specific patterns. Why then otherwise use a pattern?

I wanted to know. I downloaded all pages for each market sector each day (over 4,000 in total). Then I parsed these pages and loaded them into a database. I think the total is about 100,000 records. The beauty is that with the GMW pages, previous and current price is recorded with the pattern, so I had not only the patterns but also the current and future prices.

Armed with this database and a powerful programming language, I cleaned up the data from outliers and other rubbish such as companies gone bankrupt and ran queries and built reports. I think I even used a  trading calendar and built simple trading strategies at some point.

I sliced and diced the data (I found 600 different pattern combinations, where I discriminated even by the trend colors) in all directions. The result was, that regardless of how I did it, none of the patterns had any specific outcome statistically. All noise. There was an exception though. For rare patters, that occurred only 2 to 5 times, there was a somewhat clear outcome. There is a simple explanation for that, which comes from the way that MA builds the patterns.

Roughly, what he needs to do is as follows:

He needs to split the historical data looking back for a limited time into discrete value chunks, after smoothing etc.. Then each chunk combination gets converted into a unique key for look-up of a pattern in his pattern database. It is a technology similar to "Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX)". If a price movement after chunking is not found in the database, then the user will see the "New Pattern forming" message. After some time has passed, MA manually inspects the new patterns which now have some useful future price movements with them. Each new pattern is then labeled manually with a description such as "High close sharp drop coming" and uploaded into the database as he wrote here https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/true-ai-and-fake-neural-net-forecasting-programs/, and his AI computer which as he said "learns like a child" knows some new patterns from his observations.

The trick is as he uploads these patterns, they are still fresh and get used in the market which is still somewhat similar to a few days back, perhaps for other symbols, and they are self-fulfilling to some extent. After some time passes, the patterns are occurring more frequently, and this effect vanishes. There is likely to be another effect: Multiple patterns will have the the same description, and this will blur their effectiveness.

After all, this is again one-dimensional, manual, not the work of some AI computer. I am saying that the information is useless for me, because ANY future price movement is possible for any pattern with equal probability, and statistically that is what happens because I have measured it. The irony is that I am a pattern trader as classified by my broker. And in fact, I am trading based on patterns. But not based on GMW patterns, and not based on Reversals. Because while I would love to trade based on GMW patterns and Reversals, (otherwise why do all this research), as I wrote earlier, the stuff does not work and I have to develop my own methods.

So why do I think that patterns are still useful after all this experience? First I think that MA computer programming is of bad quality. I have seen too much of it in the form of bugs in his computer generated reports. Second, if I trade a defined pattern, that pattern is crisp and transparent. I know what the criteria of that pattern are. With a GMW pattern one knows only the description but not what it aims to match. With crisp defined patterns, I can apply them in a search of 40,000 market symbols. In comparison, Armstrong patterns are obscure and cannot be verified / trusted, an cannot be used to search. So I am saying that patterns are useful except Socrates patterns.


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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June 12, 2019, 09:39:40 PM
Last edit: June 12, 2019, 09:49:42 PM by trulycoined
 #5490

I have read so many pages of this and other blogs over the weekend and came to 1 conclusion, I fell for the oldest scam in the world: somebody claiming to be able to predict the future and stupid me paying him for this information.
I went over all my trades in the last months and now (thanks to all your posts) with a more critical look, I can say that Socrates has not contributed much, if any at all.
There were trades where I used Socrates that were successful and made me a profit. But using the exact same set-up (reversal+array) the next trade would make a loss.

I also believe that OR Martin Armstrong is a terrible teacher who can not explain his own creation, OR his creation does not work well and you only end up with mediocre results.
But if it does work, why not show it once and for all and post a series of trades in a video, do it live, put it online and this whole blog of 274 pages is useless and all his critics will clear off with their tail between their legs.
But MA will never do that because he can't.

For a long time I thought it was me, not smart enough to understand this system. But WTF, I'm 40yrs old and financially independent due to my trades/investing in the past.
I really want to thank MA_talk, Trulycoined and others. Thanks guys, you made me open my eyes!




DanB1, I was exactly just like you, if not more.

Even when I'm far familiar with Artificial Intelligence than average people, knowing that it is indeed possible to create such system (given sufficient ACCURATE data and computational power), I still fell for Armstrong's scam.

And it just takes anybody to look at what Armstrong provides OBJECTIVELY without any confirmation bias to figure out the truth.

Of course, part of the problem is that we always think that there is more information lacking because we didn't pay subscription, or didn't pay the Pro level, or didn't buy the specific report, or didn't attend WEC conferences, and thought that we are not evaluating him with complete information.

But it is here on this forum, where we all gather to contribute information, blog/internet search, and trading experiences with Armstrong's Socrates, and figure out jointly that

Quote
Martin Armstrong in all likelihood is just a BIG SCAM that provides ZERO useful/profitable trading information (short nor long term).

Sure, I don't deny that some of his views and predictions (taking out of context based on his timeframe) are correct or may eventually come true.

However, a human doesn't really live to 100 years to verify some of his claims..  If the western civilization collapses 500 years from now instead of 2032/2033, I'm telling you that trading/investing based on that "2032 knowledge" will almost certainly make you POOR.

In a way, all predictions, even the most non-sensible ones, could come true, if given long enough time-frame.  But it is exactly the CORRECT timing that will make you RICH, well, assuming that you know that before it happens.

And definitely Martin Armstrong is NOT giving anybody the right timing.



Honestly, I wish somebody has told me all these 10+ years ago, so that I wouldn't need to suffer all the unnecessary trading losses due to Armstrong.  And I'm here posting (and made http://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/), so that another fellow trader/investor won't regret believing in Armstrong's BS, 10 years from now.



Ha! I was going to say feel free to reproduce some of my posts on your blog as there are also some valuable links, especially that Quora post where the author posts an image of MA's 2008 forecast that COMPLETELY missed the buying opportunity of the decade on Mar 2009, and instead predicted the reverse.

It's funny. Sometimes on FB I will click through one of those many "guru" ads selling product X that will turn anyone from rags to riches, with no experience necessary. It is for amusement only, where I am targeted since FB knows what industry I work in, which is the same industry these gurus claim to be "experts".

The pros (me) in that business vertical can smell the BS from a mile off, while those with little to no experience are lapping it up as gospel, handing over money. I despair, and know there will be a lot of people who will lose money chasing dragons, but then that is their problem and I'm not here to police the internet. Selling snake oil is as old as humankind.

It would seem MA is doing EXACTLY the same thing with inexperienced retail investors, where any professional/institutional trader, especially those with advanced computer trading systems, would smell the BS from a mile off and scoff at his nonsense. They too would be of the opinion that many (retail) investors will lose money chasing dragons, but such is life. It is not their job to police the internet, and yet that is exactly the vehicle MA uses to sell very expensive reports and events, which are then used to upsell subscriptions to Socrates.

And hands up, I did fall for it. This is also why you must be conscious of the flaws in the human psyche. Like how dogs are suckers for an animal bone, humans are suckers to a person in authority who claim they can part the ocean and lead you to the promised land...

p.s. I've enjoyed reading some of your posts on your new blog! Hopefully that will be another resource for MA followers to review his work more objectively, rather than believing the guy is the 21st Century answer to Einstein and no word of his can possibly be wrong.
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June 12, 2019, 11:45:43 PM
 #5491

You know, there is something I forgot to mention. I kept thinking back and wondered if there is any possibility of Socrates having any value whatsoever in trading, and I remembered how my current trading method came to be. Socrates generated support and resistance points for Nasdaq, s and p, and the Dow. I inputted these values daily for each index (those came included in the subscription. Investor level, this was a while back) because I remembered one of the reader comments that came in which said they were amazed to see price reacting to the levels Socrates gave. Well, sometimes the support or resistance it gave was far from the actual price but I left it there because maybe it would react there someday. Sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn't, but it did react there in some way a lot of the time. It wasn't enough to trade off of, until I came to the realization that if price hit those lines at the same time, it would provide confluence and perhaps give me an edge. So if price was dropping and hit a couple of levels at the same time, it would have more of a chance of bouncing. After all, if Socrates was wrong on one, it could be right on the other, and what was the chance that it would be wrong on both? So basically I systematized that strategy in that manner. I'll try to post images when I get back but the album function no longer works so perhaps individually only
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June 13, 2019, 04:22:52 AM
 #5492

Ok, I found out how to do it. These are some from last year:
https://imgur.com/a/8wmPgXw
https://imgur.com/a/z1wPp7q
https://imgur.com/a/vuDaxYo
They are for most part put in chronological order, one day after another, for three different months. Not all were done, as I only wanted to have some kind of decent sample size across time to get an idea of how they worked as a historical record for myself. It seems like it does pick points decently for most part, and when combined with alignment and perhaps other methodologies of one's own choosing, it can become a profitable system. Of course, this will require one's own analysis, money management, strategy, etc and that is something Socrates will not provide.
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June 13, 2019, 01:21:26 PM
 #5493

I hate to spoil a spitting party,
but how do you explain that yesterday EURUSD  turned within 5 pips of reversal and GBPUSD within 1 pip of reversal?

If some of you can give numbers that precise, my hat's off to you.

I still don't understand why it was these reversals and not some other, and why it was yesterday and not some other day, but that is too close to be coincidence.

BTW, it is not the first time I have seen this behavior.
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June 13, 2019, 02:15:49 PM
Last edit: July 02, 2019, 07:09:11 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #5494

I hate to spoil a spitting party,
but how do you explain that yesterday EURUSD  turned within 5 pips of reversal and GBPUSD within 1 pip of reversal?

If some of you can give numbers that precise, my hat's off to you.

I still don't understand why it was these reversals and not some other, and why it was yesterday and not some other day, but that is too close to be coincidence.

BTW, it is not the first time I have seen this behavior.

I have seen these near hits many times before, too. It is intriguing, but no surprise, given that reversals are created near resistance and support levels. It is still coincidence because the ranges are quite small, and the likelihood to hit a reversal is high. Naturally, these support and resistance levels is what traders focus on as well. Kind of self-fulfilling. However, this does not mean that one can use reversals to trade and beat the market. There is a correlation between all markets, and it is likely that if one market shows this behavior then others will do so, too. The currency pairs are actually the worst performers - you cannot make money using the weekly or any reversals. You get whip-sawed with no end in sight. That is because the currencies are typically not moving in one direction for long, and the reversals if elected are buy the high and sell the low or just break even for a week. No point getting mystified. Just do the math. Collect a few hundred reversals in a spreadsheet and you will see what I mean.


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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June 13, 2019, 02:59:11 PM
 #5495

I hate to spoil a spitting party,
but how do you explain that yesterday EURUSD  turned within 5 pips of reversal and GBPUSD within 1 pip of reversal?

If some of you can give numbers that precise, my hat's off to you.

I still don't understand why it was these reversals and not some other, and why it was yesterday and not some other day, but that is too close to be coincidence.

BTW, it is not the first time I have seen this behavior.

AnonCoder is correct. When one picks support or resistance lines, sometimes they will work sometimes they will not. Price points are only one aspect of a strategy and in no way will automatically make one profitable. In other words, we can say the high or low is expected to occur on the support/resistance lines, but it does not mean hitting a line will be a low or high. Look at this chart for the past 10 days on the Dow. https://i.imgur.com/WS5uaWQ.png If one blindly shorted at the resistance line only the first time it hit a line and closed the same day each day, it'd be profitable every single time. But this is a small sample size and it does not always work that way. Also, if one bought the lines on supports, that would also be 100% profitable. But again, sample size. How does one differentiate between them? I see this sort of thing every. Single. Day. When I was new at trading, it seemed like an amazing thing how prices sometimes bounced off the numbers he gave. But once you practice, it can be done much better than Socrates. And this is why Socrates seems amazing to newer traders. It does the support/resistance thing and sometimes gets it right and appears amazing, because newer traders can rarely catch highs or lows. It is JUST like a magician making a rabbit appear out of thin air to wow little kids. But the real magician is not impressed by little tricks. The real magician can impress other magicians. Been there, done that, was impressed by Armstrong, quit it and learned the game myself.

Perhaps the only really impressive thing I've seen by Armstrong is that he actually did call several highs, and corrections correctly. Calling for a high or a low isn't 50:50, its harder imo, because you're going against the trend. His forecast arrays called for high volatility for February, and this was on January 1, 2018. That was indeed when the market was incredibly volatile. If one had purchased puts one month out to short XIV, it would have been 5 figure percentage gain, but this is the best case scenario. And during the last correction, October, he actually said in late September that the open meant that it was likely we would correct. That isn't an easy call to make. Of course, with bad money management, his right calls would have made one lose it. My guess is that there is some validity to his system but he ignores any and all flaws that exist instead of taking responsibility to the losses and making it better. Honey is useless when there is poison in it, but poison will still kill even if some honey is in it. I might still shell out the $15 to comb through the Reversal calls on the Private Blog, because I can't personally remember a time it lost, although I'm sure it did. Socrates does give numbers that change but if it's coming from the horse's mouth, he should know which is supposed to be the right/correct one(s) and therefore will have posted it. We'll see.
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June 13, 2019, 03:38:59 PM
Last edit: July 24, 2019, 06:22:55 PM by AnonymousCoder
 #5496

I hate to say this but there is flaw in judging the system by going through the blog. MA does of course know the weakness of the system. Before he posts a message on the blog, he will make a definite statement only in case where he has cherry-picked a case that he is most confident about. And still he fails. But we don't have this luxury. Those trades are so rare that it meets the criteria that rosousa has explained in detail with his risk / reward calculation in an earlier post that is worth reading. In simple terms, the system does not let you cherry-pick like that because there is no cherry-picker in it. And if you could in fact cherry-pick somehow, then you would only get three trades in a year.

I fell for this as well. Years ago, I bought the gold reports and recorded the statistics of the reversals in the gold reports. It was amazing. Why did it work so well then? Because it was a year's worth of steady declines. Then the market turned and MA missed the bounce, still writing bearish messages. For me, this was devastating. After the fact, months later he bragged about the system being right again because it had sent a long term quarterly bullish reversal superimposed with a shorter time quarterly bearish reversal. This is a real model case.


Year End Report 2015:

When we look at gold going into year-2015, we see absolute critical support at
1044. A year-end closing g beneath this level will signal new lows and they can
be quite dramatic. From a technical perspective, the two key targets will be
1026 and 601. Important resistance during 2016 will begin at 1179 with key
resistance forming at 1310. Therefore, even a year-end closing for 2015 below
1179 will keep gold in a bearish position.
Additionally, we have a Quarterly Bearish Reversal at 1112. Therefore, a yearend
closing below this level should also warn of a drop becomes possible at
least to test the 875 to 904 former high of 1980. A monthly closing beneath 904
would also point to a drop way down to the 680 area.



Gold elected the quarterly bearish but we heard about the quarterly bullish too late the next year:

Another anomaly was that at the end of 2015, we elected the Quarterly Bearish
Reversal at 1112 closing at 1060.20. At the same time, that low generated a
minor Quarterly Bullish Reversal at 993. So we generated a long-term sell signal,
but a short-term buy signal. The next two Quarterly Bullish generated were at
1308 and 1347. That meant we should first rally typically for 2 to 3 months in a
reaction and if they failed to be elected by the close of March, then the longterm
trend should resume to retest support.


When he writes At the same time, he is lying.

I never heard about that 993 bullish at the time when it was needed. Note that this is a bullish reversal that is generated well below market price. The number 993 is likely just made up. It is NOT a reversal in a sense that is generated prior for you to examine. And I bought the report which comes in installments with videos and so on, covering a year (not ending at end of year but going well into that period where we should have received that signal) and that reversal was not available. So what are these superposition events then? They come after the fact! They are fraudulent. The system discovers that it is wrong and voila, it has an automatic excuse. Months later? Give me a break! Like the weekly superposition events. They come out on Monday when the system discovers that the price has crossed the threshold that marks the failure of the elected reversal. They should be called REVISION signals

https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/revision-signals.html

because superposition is something else. Superposition is when a resulting signal is composed of multiple signal components at the same time, simultaneously, to form a more complex signal. Not a corrective signal is added at a later time. So it is all misleading left, right and center and incompetence is everywhere.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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June 13, 2019, 04:53:43 PM
 #5497

I see, nice catch. There is always an excuse hidden away. This same thing occurred during the February high call when I said Armstrong would have to give a line in the sand and say when he was wrong. Later he said a weekly close above 25100 is where he would be wrong (more proof that Armstrong/StrikeEagle is related to this) and the market did just that. Then, no word from him for a long time. But by then I had already knew of those tricks from him and closed the short before it ripped to the upside.
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June 13, 2019, 06:47:41 PM
 #5498

Oh, and StrikeEagle/Armstrong/any other multi you're using, if you still think you are right, post your trades in real time and win consistently to prove us all wrong. Like 'opened short at X'. But you won't do it. That in itself is another proof.
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June 13, 2019, 06:59:34 PM
 #5499

We´re mixing things here.

One thing is MA forecasts, which don´t have any value to trading/investment as the entry/exit timing is unknown variable. If their forecasts were of any value for Investment, they were not given for free from someone that charges so much for simple market history review reports.

 The other thing is Socrates which have built-in some good technical indicators (some of them with fancy names like Energy instead of regular know as Momentum oscillator and Cycles represented on fancy graphics/ARRAY´s instead of plain english cycle is up on X time frame but at same time is down on X time frame like Charles Nenner do on his research/market alerts service).

Some of technical indicators are very valuable, specially the internal calculation of support/resistance price areas (Reversals). But as overall standalone product for trading/investing missing extremely important features:
1) Search on database for setups/ alignment between indicators/reversals.
2) You been able to back-test your ideas using the indicators built-in on the software to find a approach that fits you and more important than that: Gives you confidence to stick to your rules when things start to go wrong on one trade.

As the system is a black-box system, that people suppose to use blind, for anyone that want to invest some serious $, is worthless until the point you be able to replicate the formulas/inputs on the indicators in the "black-box" indicators and you´re successful on built-in the data on a decent software with back-testing features or simple that let you export the data into spreadsheet/excel to back-test and to see with your eyes what really work and what is worthless inside the large number of indicators/tech tools inside Socrates. And getting it to next level, you use what work best from Socrates with what had been working best for you on the markets - Elliot Waves, Fibonacci, Gann, Wyckoff, Cycles studies, RSI, MACD I could go on forever naming good approaches/indicators as the´re +100 good ones. What been working best together along so much tools/approaches you only could know if you can test it.

Without back-testing it you will never know the real numbers/success rate/win rate to be able to manage your risk and build a trading/investment approach.

Using Socrates, is like driving your car blind on a well know route, it could go well and you´re a hero, but most of the time you will just crash your car and have a expensive hospital and car repair service bill!  

RS
https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA
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June 14, 2019, 12:05:26 AM
 #5500

The very sad part of this story is that a 'day laborer' sold all the coins for a lousy $6,000

All I can say is you better do your homework before you sell some coins to a coin shop, or they will rape you financially big time

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-13/cult-economist-jailed-for-hiding-rare-coins-says-they-re-his-now
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