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Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3008698 times)
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August 06, 2013, 04:30:46 PM
 #5141

The average difficulty raise since block 237888 (May 25th, 2013) per every every 2016 blocks (each difficulty adjustment period) has been 20%, which makes for about roughly 62% monthly (considering the average period for each difficulty adjustment has been 11.63 days).

20% each difficulty adjustment period is not the same as 62% monthly Wink
You don't just divide the number of days by the difficulty adjustment period in days and multiply by 20%

If you have 20% increase each 11.63 days then in 116 days that won't amount to 200% total increase, but much more Wink

About 600% unless I mis-factored somewhere along the way.  That "compound interest" is a real bitch...
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August 06, 2013, 04:36:17 PM
 #5142

The average difficulty raise since block 237888 (May 25th, 2013) per every every 2016 blocks (each difficulty adjustment period) has been 20%, which makes for about roughly 62% monthly (considering the average period for each difficulty adjustment has been 11.63 days).

Assuming this scenario maintains for the next 8 months and KnCMiner delivers in time and unit starts mining in September 30, at difficulty ~95 million, I expect one Jupiter unit will mine about 137 BTC in 6 months of operation and after that period it wont be profitable to keep paying hosting, as it will be earning around 1BTC per month and falling.



Unless by some unbelievable coincidence, the public start to embrace Bitcoin through easier access to exchange, useful or know sites adopting it as a payment method, or some corrupt central bank shenanigans pushing BTC price upto a point where it once becomes profitable.

There's also the fact energy companies could drop prices, but haha that's NEVER gonna happen, not in the UK at least, where they caused outrage last winter with privatised energy companies profiteering and forcing pensioners to either starve or freeze. Ironically it may well be worth donating your old units to them so at least they get free heating!

I wonder whether markets could become more stable for some of the SHA256 altcoins when BTC difficulty gets prohibitively high. There are already periods of time (according to coinchoose.com, at least) where PPCoin and TerraCoin are more profitable to mine than Bitcoin--but because there's so much variance in difficulty and exchange rates, it's hard to predict right now. But what if we see a scenario where smaller miners start to point their ASICs at altcoins? Maybe that would improve stability of those markets and extend the lifetime of the early hardware a bit.

I'd be curious to know whether miners with small-to-midsize GPU or FPGA farms are already starting to do this.

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August 06, 2013, 04:37:47 PM
 #5143

The average difficulty raise since block 237888 (May 25th, 2013) per every every 2016 blocks (each difficulty adjustment period) has been 20%, which makes for about roughly 62% monthly (considering the average period for each difficulty adjustment has been 11.63 days).

20% each difficulty adjustment period is not the same as 62% monthly Wink
You don't just divide the number of days by the difficulty adjustment period in days and multiply by 20%

If you have 20% increase each 11.63 days then in 116 days that won't amount to 200% total increase, but much more Wink

About 600% unless I mis-factored somewhere along the way...

I've just ran some calculations and between 25th May 2013 and 5th August 2013 difficulty has increased 208.62%, so he might be correct with the 62% monthly figure.

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August 06, 2013, 04:41:03 PM
 #5144

But what if we see a scenario where smaller miners start to point their ASICs at altcoins?

Not many SHA-256 alt coins to choose from and the most profitable compared to Bitcoin are scrypt, so it makes no sense to point ASIC to SHA-256 alt coins.

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August 06, 2013, 04:48:58 PM
 #5145

On a serious note though; what's the latest on KNC's progress?
Does the October shipping date seem likely?
We have no reason to believe they won't hit their ship-date at this point. The only evidence we have that they will is their claim that they are on time with everything so far.
Yes that is true, but for that kind of project they are really quiet about their project schedule. (Yes, I know: "The competitors!" Wink )
You seem pretty smart.   Can you tell me what possibly a competitor could do by knowing that you have finished your tape out?   How would that help them do anything?   Or that you have populated your board and are testing?   What would that information do for a competitor?   Would it help them get their design done faster?   Would it help them test their design?   Would it help them move up in the line at the foundry?
"competitors":  Everytime I read that I think "LIARS".  "BULLSHITTERS"

No, to be honest I have absolutely no idea how announcing the completion of concrete milestones including dates should help any competitor, when you are on track for September delivery.

They must have a internal project plan with dates for all the major milestones (there are a lot of them), which finally ends with delivery to customers end of September, which is not that far away.

From my point of view, being more transparent here could only be beneficial for KnC with respect to their reputation and a kind of "shock and awe" for any competitor.
Some of them would maybe stop development completely, because they will realize that they are too late in game and that nobody will buy their products when KnC already has 28nm chips on the market for several months. But this would only be valid, if you have an realistic plan and if you are 100% on track.
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August 06, 2013, 04:51:01 PM
 #5146

But what if we see a scenario where smaller miners start to point their ASICs at altcoins?

Not many SHA-256 alt coins to choose from and the most profitable compared to Bitcoin are scrypt, so it makes no sense to point ASIC to SHA-256 alt coins.

But you can merge mine, and there's a poll on the KnC homepage currently if you wish them to consider that. It was added yesterday.

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August 06, 2013, 04:58:30 PM
 #5147

But what if we see a scenario where smaller miners start to point their ASICs at altcoins?

Not many SHA-256 alt coins to choose from and the most profitable compared to Bitcoin are scrypt, so it makes no sense to point ASIC to SHA-256 alt coins.

I hear you, and I'm just speculating, but I wonder if that will change once a lot of people find themselves with ASIC hardware that mines almost nothing. I wonder what the effect would be of a major hashrate boost to one of the non-merge-mined coins--for example, if lots of people who bought USB Block Erupters early on started mining some particular coin. I'm no economist and altcoin markets are hard to predict, but if that caused exchange rates against BTC to go up, that could end up providing a little more return for these early ASICs.

You may be right, though, that it's too late for SHA256 coins. I do think that if/when we start seeing low-wattage scrypt miners (e.g. FPGAs), that will shake things up a lot and the SHA256 altcoins will lose most of their worth.

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August 06, 2013, 05:02:32 PM
 #5148

But what if we see a scenario where smaller miners start to point their ASICs at altcoins?

Not many SHA-256 alt coins to choose from and the most profitable compared to Bitcoin are scrypt, so it makes no sense to point ASIC to SHA-256 alt coins.

But you can merge mine, and there's a poll on the KnC homepage currently if you wish them to consider that. It was added yesterday.

True, but many of the SHA256 coins can't currently be merge-mined. I also wonder what the perceived value is of merge-mined coins that aren't backed by some specific market. It doesn't seem consistent--Namecoins (backed by a domain registration system) have remained fairly high, but Devcoins (backed by a profit model for open source software/writing/art) haven't. And Ixcoins retain a small amount of value based only on the fact that they're still listed on a couple of exchanges, as far as I can tell.

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August 06, 2013, 05:07:54 PM
 #5149

The average difficulty raise since block 237888 (May 25th, 2013) per every every 2016 blocks (each difficulty adjustment period) has been 20%, which makes for about roughly 62% monthly (considering the average period for each difficulty adjustment has been 11.63 days).

20% each difficulty adjustment period is not the same as 62% monthly Wink
You don't just divide the number of days by the difficulty adjustment period in days and multiply by 20%

Actually the original poster was correct. Over the past 3 difficulty changes the "3 change floating % increase" has been 20.58%, and 17.47% going back one difficulty change.

Assuming an average month is 30.42 days long, and a difficulty change every 11.7 days

Then the expected difficulty increase every 30.42 days works out to be about 60-62%
Say 1.2^2.5965 = 1.6055 increase
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August 06, 2013, 05:09:07 PM
 #5150

The average difficulty raise since block 237888 (May 25th, 2013) per every every 2016 blocks (each difficulty adjustment period) has been 20%, which makes for about roughly 62% monthly (considering the average period for each difficulty adjustment has been 11.63 days).

20% each difficulty adjustment period is not the same as 62% monthly Wink
You don't just divide the number of days by the difficulty adjustment period in days and multiply by 20%

If you have 20% increase each 11.63 days then in 116 days that won't amount to 200% total increase, but much more Wink

About 600% unless I mis-factored somewhere along the way...

I've just ran some calculations and between 25th May 2013 and 5th August 2013 difficulty has increased 208.62%, so he might be correct with the 62% monthly figure.

Of course I'm correct! I know how to deal with interest.

These are the numbers in detail:

The total rise since block 237888 (dif 12153411.7) and block 249984 (dif 37392766.13) amounts to 207.67% raise which means 307.67% in total variance (you had to add the original 100% of the initial difficulty).

That took place in 6 periods of 2016 blocks each, total 69.76 days, average 11.626 days per period

To calculate the average rise of each period of 2016 blocks:

(3.0767)^(1/6) (way to calculate the 6th root) = 1.206 => 20.6% rise each period

Now to calculate the monthly raise, we first calculate the daily raise, which would be,

(3.0767)^(1/69.76) = 1.016240815 => 1.62 % daily raise.

And now we calculate the monthly rate, which is the daily raise to the 30th power (assuming 30 day months, although more precisely would be 30.4 days per month)

1.016240815^30 = 1.6214 => 62.14% raise per month.

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August 06, 2013, 05:10:09 PM
 #5151

And Ixcoins retain a small amount of value based only on the fact that they're still listed on a couple of exchanges, as far as I can tell.

I spent something like 30BTC for i0coins and ixcoins back in the days and now have 15K of each  Grin
Should have sold them in April when the rate was 0.0004  Cry

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August 06, 2013, 05:13:33 PM
 #5152

...It's a PCB board and some chips...

Then if everything is on track, when can we realistically expect to see a prototype board and chips hashing? Unless KnC is running significantly behind, or even ahead of schedule, this is not an unreasonable request...

About the same time they start mass producing.  They'll receive all their chips from the fab at once, so there's no way to produce a prototype unit before they are ready to begin mass production.

Other then that, there is their prototype FPGA system which they were planning to sell, but no longer are. That unit, presumably, can be used write software and test against.

As far as CGMiner is concerned, it's open source so they can come up with their own version internally if they want. The demo with their FPGA unit seemed to be running CGMiner.

Also, apparently they will pre-configure it as well:
Quote
The idea behind these boxes is to make them as simple as possible to run, he says. Closer to the shipment date, he plans to contact customers in the queue, and ask them for details including a bitcoin address. KnCMiner will then configure each device to sent bits automatically to that address when mining. It would also test each device against that wallet with those details. “Then you ship the device to them, and they plug it in, and turn it on, and walk away,” he says.

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August 06, 2013, 05:17:13 PM
 #5153

I agree.  The elephant in the room may just be that confidence was high that the design would be successful and that it's an all or nothing gamble that the design will work first time, skipping the prototype phase.  It's not the kind of thing that they can admit to us, but frankly, it makes sense to me if they are really all that.  Time is of the essence.  The linux module is already proven. http://www.orsoc.se/?page_id=484
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August 06, 2013, 05:34:45 PM
 #5154

I agree.  The elephant in the room may just be that confidence was high that the design would be successful and that it's an all or nothing gamble that the design will work first time, skipping the prototype phase.  It's not the kind of thing that they can admit to us, but frankly, it makes sense to me if they are really all that.  Time is of the essence.  The linux module is already proven. http://www.orsoc.se/?page_id=484.  

It's the exact same elephant everyone else is now starting to emulate, only the competition is yet to secure funds via pre-orders yet...

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August 06, 2013, 05:46:33 PM
 #5155

From my point of view, being more transparent here could only be beneficial for KnC with respect to their reputation and a kind of "shock and awe" for any competitor.
Some of them would maybe stop development completely, because they will realize that they are too late in game and that nobody will buy their products when KnC already has 28nm chips on the market for several months. But this would only be valid, if you have an realistic plan and if you are 100% on track.

If you don't like it you can cancel your order and get a refund. They'll either ship on time, or they won't. 

Supposedly they'll still refund your money up to the point they don't ship. So unless they are going to break the law and illegally deny a refund there isn't that much risk, other then opportunity cost if you want to invest in something else instead.

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August 06, 2013, 05:50:07 PM
 #5156

You seem pretty smart.   Can you tell me what possibly a competitor could do by knowing that you have finished your tape out?   How would that help them do anything?   Or that you have populated your board and are testing?   What would that information do for a competitor?   Would it help them get their design done faster?   Would it help them test their design?   Would it help them move up in the line at the foundry?
"competitors":  Everytime I read that I think "LIARS".  "BULLSHITTERS"

No, to be honest I have absolutely no idea how announcing the completion of concrete milestones including dates should help any competitor, when you are on track for September delivery.

They must have a internal project plan with dates for all the major milestones (there are a lot of them), which finally ends with delivery to customers end of September, which is not that far away.

From my point of view, being more transparent here could only be beneficial for KnC with respect to their reputation and a kind of "shock and awe" for any competitor.
Some of them would maybe stop development completely, because they will realize that they are too late in game and that nobody will buy their products when KnC already has 28nm chips on the market for several months. But this would only be valid, if you have an realistic plan and if you are 100% on track.


These.

Not saying anything is only useful when you don't publicly announce you'll ship in September. If you're not sure of your ship date, STFU as your competition WILL try to beat you on that ship date.

After you've announced said date, it's probably a *better* idea to make as much noise as you can to lock in your buyers and prospects (and not risk staying with unsold chips for your October pre-orders, for ex.), so they don't spend their money elsewhere.

A ton of ppl is jumping boat left right and center from all "old" ASICs for the new ones because they have more (baseless) faith in the newcomers (everybody is doing a ton of effort to sell you sth, it's after that that the sellers usually disappear...).

Admittedly, it's a pain to announce anything when you really have nothing, but they (any seller, really) should come up with an update schedule and throw tidbits (hey, a new fan design, pick your color, whatever...). Just announce a few dates when you'll publish an update and stick to the plan. Not difficult and it shows you care (even if you don't mean it) about your customers, even AFTER they sent you their hard earned money. (that would put you a cut above the rest...)

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August 06, 2013, 05:53:41 PM
 #5157

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLt1gBi2fm0

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August 06, 2013, 05:54:09 PM
 #5158

From my point of view, being more transparent here could only be beneficial for KnC with respect to their reputation and a kind of "shock and awe" for any competitor.
Some of them would maybe stop development completely, because they will realize that they are too late in game and that nobody will buy their products when KnC already has 28nm chips on the market for several months. But this would only be valid, if you have an realistic plan and if you are 100% on track.

If you don't like it you can cancel your order and get a refund. They'll either ship on time, or they won't. 

Supposedly they'll still refund your money up to the point they don't ship. So unless they are going to break the law and illegally deny a refund there isn't that much risk, other then opportunity cost if you want to invest in something else instead.

You probably know that most of their NRE costs are 3rd party costs, which they have to pay before they will have any ASICs in their hands.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but they can only refund customers with money they still have, can't they?
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August 06, 2013, 05:57:04 PM
 #5159

From my point of view, being more transparent here could only be beneficial for KnC with respect to their reputation and a kind of "shock and awe" for any competitor.
Some of them would maybe stop development completely, because they will realize that they are too late in game and that nobody will buy their products when KnC already has 28nm chips on the market for several months. But this would only be valid, if you have an realistic plan and if you are 100% on track.

If you don't like it you can cancel your order and get a refund. They'll either ship on time, or they won't. 

Supposedly they'll still refund your money up to the point they don't ship. So unless they are going to break the law and illegally deny a refund there isn't that much risk, other then opportunity cost if you want to invest in something else instead.

You probably know that most of their NRE costs are 3rd party costs, which they have to pay before they will have any ASICs in their hands.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but they can only refund customers with money they still have, can't they?


Presumably as can any company that accepts pre-orders, i.e. all of them, which is why you make payment with credit card for payment protection.

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August 06, 2013, 05:59:45 PM
 #5160

...It's a PCB board and some chips...

Then if everything is on track, when can we realistically expect to see a prototype board and chips hashing? Unless KnC is running significantly behind, or even ahead of schedule, this is not an unreasonable request...

 err, Like 'Orama said...  Mars is the FPGA prototype, and it was demonstrated months ago.
The link posted earlier is a great article, and a good review of recent developments... thanks Dave..   http://www.coindesk.com/a-look-inside-kncminer/


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