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minternj
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August 13, 2013, 06:42:34 PM |
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It was more odd to me that they could determine that without having a chip in hand... I mean from an engineering standpoint they ran simulations before tape out so that info was known, seemed more like a marketing type release to me.
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WastedLTC
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August 13, 2013, 06:45:42 PM |
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Just amazing...
BTC Difficulty 37,392,768 -> 50,636,479 (35.42%) in 2 hours. What a huge jump! I believe this is a record. 13.2 million in a single bound.
Is it possible to manipulate the difficulty increases by removing hashing power prior to the change? How is the next difficulty level set? Average over a number of blocks? Just looks like 100TH dropped off the network today just before the increase and I'm sure we will see the power back online immediately after the difficulty gets set.
Don't even bother looking at Mining.TheGenesisBlock.com until after the change has happened. Their moving window for the average difficulty is based on a 30 day window which causes it to be all messed up near the end of the window. Example, right now it expects a very low monthly increase (in the 30% range). I'm sure it will show 75% or more once that window gets corrected.
Just amazing to see how quickly the value of a miner can drop and this is why everyone is "concerned".
KNC has provided all the info they currently have and the next update will probably be that the chips are in. Until then we can watch the charts!
Difficulty changed and now check out GenesisBlock. The increase per month is now 94%!!! (based on history). This is the last nail in the coffin for Avalon and BFL units that have not arrived yet. |
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erschiessen
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August 13, 2013, 06:47:12 PM |
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It was more odd to me that they could determine that without having a chip in hand... I mean from an engineering standpoint they ran simulations before tape out so that info was known, seemed more like a marketing type release to me.
From the reports of the Open Days, Andreas (IIRC) stated that they have margins upon margins upon margins it is a marketing release, you are correct, IMO. But based upon calcs. |
Your Message Here
12KHW3i2Hamk1irY8b181N4vMXUnVYL1ah
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Kuroth
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August 13, 2013, 06:49:06 PM |
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Just amazing...
BTC Difficulty 37,392,768 -> 50,636,479 (35.42%) in 2 hours. What a huge jump! I believe this is a record. 13.2 million in a single bound.
Is it possible to manipulate the difficulty increases by removing hashing power prior to the change? How is the next difficulty level set? Average over a number of blocks? Just looks like 100TH dropped off the network today just before the increase and I'm sure we will see the power back online immediately after the difficulty gets set.
Don't even bother looking at Mining.TheGenesisBlock.com until after the change has happened. Their moving window for the average difficulty is based on a 30 day window which causes it to be all messed up near the end of the window. Example, right now it expects a very low monthly increase (in the 30% range). I'm sure it will show 75% or more once that window gets corrected.
Just amazing to see how quickly the value of a miner can drop and this is why everyone is "concerned".
KNC has provided all the info they currently have and the next update will probably be that the chips are in. Until then we can watch the charts!
Might me the nail in the coffin for me as well.. 90% chance I will cancle my Knc order based on this.. Folks it wll only get WAY worse.. |
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WastedLTC
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August 13, 2013, 06:49:28 PM |
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It was more odd to me that they could determine that without having a chip in hand... I mean from an engineering standpoint they ran simulations before tape out so that info was known, seemed more like a marketing type release to me.
From the reports of the Open Days, Andreas (IIRC) stated that they have margins upon margins upon margins it is a marketing release, you are correct, IMO. But based upon calcs. maybe Jupiter cases can hold 5 chips and not only 4.  That would be a margin upon margin. |
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NiteShdw
Member
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Activity: 69
Merit: 10
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August 13, 2013, 06:58:38 PM |
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currently difficulty is at 37. and is estimated to jump to 50. which is ~%35 increase so, if this trend continues, we are talking ~%100 increase per month http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/that is why I decided not to buy knc Jupiter at the moment, even if it is delivered in October as promised I still would not make ROI.  if there is a flaw in this logic please point it out I really want to get Jupiter. You're assuming that the exchange rate of BTC will stay the same. Let's say the exchange rate goes to $200 USD / BTC or even higher, those coins you mine are suddenly much more valuable and can affect your ROI, though it may take a lot longer for you to see that. I stopped mining back in 2010/2011 because they were only worth like $2 and it was costing more in electricity than it was worth. Had I kept mining, that investment would have more than paid off. If you are in this for the long term, then the investment could still pay handsomely. I, personally, expect the price to rise because it will take more and more computing power to generate the same coins, pushing out the small guys and leaving only big investors with the hardware to mine, plus you have the deflationary pressures as people hoard coins. |
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WastedLTC
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August 13, 2013, 07:04:47 PM |
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currently difficulty is at 37. and is estimated to jump to 50. which is ~%35 increase so, if this trend continues, we are talking ~%100 increase per month http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/that is why I decided not to buy knc Jupiter at the moment, even if it is delivered in October as promised I still would not make ROI. if there is a flaw in this logic please point it out I really want to get Jupiter. You're assuming that the exchange rate of BTC will stay the same. Let's say the exchange rate goes to $200 USD / BTC or even higher, those coins you mine are suddenly much more valuable and can affect your ROI, though it may take a lot longer for you to see that. I stopped mining back in 2010/2011 because they were only worth like $2 and it was costing more in electricity than it was worth. Had I kept mining, that investment would have more than paid off. If you are in this for the long term, then the investment could still pay handsomely. I, personally, expect the price to rise because it will take more and more computing power to generate the same coins, pushing out the small guys and leaving only big investors with the hardware to mine, plus you have the deflationary pressures as people hoard coins. Right but that theory supports getting a refund and just buying coins with the money. |
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thomashrev89
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August 13, 2013, 07:20:02 PM |
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currently difficulty is at 37. and is estimated to jump to 50. which is ~%35 increase so, if this trend continues, we are talking ~%100 increase per month http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/that is why I decided not to buy knc Jupiter at the moment, even if it is delivered in October as promised I still would not make ROI. if there is a flaw in this logic please point it out I really want to get Jupiter. You're assuming that the exchange rate of BTC will stay the same. Let's say the exchange rate goes to $200 USD / BTC or even higher, those coins you mine are suddenly much more valuable and can affect your ROI, though it may take a lot longer for you to see that. I stopped mining back in 2010/2011 because they were only worth like $2 and it was costing more in electricity than it was worth. Had I kept mining, that investment would have more than paid off. If you are in this for the long term, then the investment could still pay handsomely. I, personally, expect the price to rise because it will take more and more computing power to generate the same coins, pushing out the small guys and leaving only big investors with the hardware to mine, plus you have the deflationary pressures as people hoard coins. Right but that theory supports getting a refund and just buying coins with the money. where is the fun in that? |
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DPoS
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August 13, 2013, 07:20:49 PM |
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Right but that theory supports getting a refund and just buying coins with the money.
There's more to the equation. Getting BTC without a money trail and fees adds to the side of mining, even if the cost of electric brings you to a negative. Also, it is easier to buy a miner with credit cards (0% interest hopefully) than BTC so for those not flush in cash, this is the only play as well |
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kano
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 4466
Merit: 1798
Linux since 1997 RedHat 4
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August 13, 2013, 07:51:12 PM |
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Still not heard back from KNC ... for 12 days now ...
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SirWizz
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August 13, 2013, 08:07:43 PM |
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Still not heard back from KNC ... for 12 days now ...
I'll give it another week and then start asking questions. How can they be ahead but they still haven't contacted you? Were they not supposed to contact you in July? |
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ASIC-K
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Hell?
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August 13, 2013, 08:15:30 PM |
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ill give it another 2 weeks then yeah im jumping ship as well.
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Kuroth
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August 13, 2013, 08:15:58 PM |
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Still not heard back from KNC ... for 12 days now ...
This too scares the Shit out of me.. I am not bragging or anything but I started a Refund Revolt over at the BFL site back in early June.. Got banned and the whole 9 yards.. Got my Damn Refunds too despite Josh's BS etc.. I am getting itchy that if we dont get some damn solld Info From Knc soon(This week) I might be starting a second revoloution.. |
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ImI
Legendary
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Activity: 1946
Merit: 1019
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August 13, 2013, 08:22:19 PM |
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man this board is truly full of ...
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arbitrage001
Legendary
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Activity: 1067
Merit: 1000
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August 13, 2013, 08:23:37 PM |
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Still not heard back from KNC ... for 12 days now ...
This too scares the Shit out of me.. I am not bragging or anything but I started a Refund Revolt over at the BFL site back in early June.. Got banned and the whole 9 yards.. Got my Damn Refunds too despite Josh's BS etc.. I am getting itchy that if we dont get some damn solld Info From Knc soon(This week) I might be starting a second revoloution.. I am worry also. Just redid some simulation based on current difficulty projection and it show people who receive the miner in late October will never see ROI even if BTC worth 200 usd. |
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sickpig
Legendary
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Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
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August 13, 2013, 08:49:44 PM |
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Still not heard back from KNC ... for 12 days now ...
this is at least annoying |
Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
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Anenome5
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August 13, 2013, 08:52:50 PM |
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Might me the nail in the coffin for me as well.. 90% chance I will cancle my Knc order based on this.. Folks it wll only get WAY worse..
Think about what actually happened--Batch 2 and 3 finished shipping. I don't think we're going to see sustained increase of difficulty like in the last 1.5 months. |
Democracy is the original 51% attack.
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timmmers
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August 13, 2013, 08:55:15 PM |
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currently difficulty is at 37. and is estimated to jump to 50. which is ~%35 increase so, if this trend continues, we are talking ~%100 increase per month http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/that is why I decided not to buy knc Jupiter at the moment, even if it is delivered in October as promised I still would not make ROI. if there is a flaw in this logic please point it out I really want to get Jupiter. You're assuming that the exchange rate of BTC will stay the same. Let's say the exchange rate goes to $200 USD / BTC or even higher, those coins you mine are suddenly much more valuable and can affect your ROI, though it may take a lot longer for you to see that. I stopped mining back in 2010/2011 because they were only worth like $2 and it was costing more in electricity than it was worth. Had I kept mining, that investment would have more than paid off. If you are in this for the long term, then the investment could still pay handsomely. I, personally, expect the price to rise because it will take more and more computing power to generate the same coins, pushing out the small guys and leaving only big investors with the hardware to mine, plus you have the deflationary pressures as people hoard coins. Right but that theory supports getting a refund and just buying coins with the money. where is the fun in that? The fun is the holiday you go on with the money you didn't throw away  As for the Jupiter being more powerful and nothing being said about the others...I'd assume as they are modular they gave us credit to be able to work out that will scale down the range? Coin value is key as was just said..if you're in it for a quick profit from mining now then you're not going to do well. Which is why all this talk of mining being a business is a bit silly IMO, it's a gamble at worst and a long term investment at best. Unless you can write a 3 or 5 year business plan that makes sense, or possibly take advantage of things like claiming VAT and tax back on hardware and other expenses...which would be sensible for some high rollers You'd have to wonder how the tax man would look on a business mainly involving mining BTC. |
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Meizirkki
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August 13, 2013, 08:56:10 PM |
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If KnC breaks their promises I'll be glad to see a refund-rally. But if you start requesting refunds because you won't get "your ROI" when the device arrives I'll feel truly bad for KnC. I hate to be the one to try and teach lessons.. but didn't any of you think for just a few seconds before ordering that there are thousands of people getting similar devices before and after you do?
If you want to support Bitcoin and keep it's network safe, hats off to you.
If you ordered an ASIC thinking it'll get you rich in no time, have a nice life being a loser.
Sorry, I'm just rather bored to seeing all this talk about ROI. Now that some suggest getting refunds because of difficulty estimates I just couldn't stay nice and quiet anymore.
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FUKT
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August 13, 2013, 08:59:09 PM |
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This is all a race to the bottom when it comes to asics. only the people who get it first win for each generation of gear.
And that assumes a level playing field where the manufacturers are not using your money to build their mining farm first.
everyone else can suck eggs. you feeling lucky punk?
Think there isn't really anything we can do till September. Maybe god will favor this wave of miner and BTC suddenly rise to 200 and everyone win? As for people who is bashing or defending knc, they should really chill out. September is only a few WEEKS away.But October isn't... :-( My order date is for October (Saturn), probably end of october! If it rises at this level, it'll probably be over 200m diff by the time I get my rig... $4000 down the drain... If by beginning of October the difficulty is around 200m, I'll be surely asking for a refund. Can't afford to lose four grand, or wait for a year just to get ROI LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL. |
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