augustocroppo
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July 29, 2013, 12:26:39 AM |
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You can't just make a single prototype ASIC chip, you have to have a whole wafer made, and I don't even think you can get that done individually by a fab anyway.
The only way to have a 'working prototype' would be to have an 'early batch' of a few hundred machines in September, then wait three months for the rest of the orders. What's the point in doing that? Uh... Perhaps to ensure they will deliver "Jupiter" instead of "Mars" to all customers which paid in advance?
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dracore
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July 29, 2013, 12:51:50 AM |
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If they deliver in sept.. but who knows sept could be sept 31st still ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) the longer we wait as a community for stuff the harder it is to make an ROI.. not impossible, esp people who pay for power.. So what ever company Knc, company b, c or d.. so prices need to come down on hardware.. I know boxes dont cost 7k to make ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) anyhow.. Yup might be more accurate to look at Oct 2013... and even Nov 2013 since maybe half the orders are going to be delivered by end of Oct (supposedly)
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erk
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July 29, 2013, 01:29:25 AM Last edit: July 29, 2013, 01:50:22 AM by erk |
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I makes me laugh that the pressure on companies to get ASICs out the door fast, to get in before the diff rate rapidly increases, is exactly what is causing the rapid diff rate increases in the first place. A typical unsustainable approach. If we took out time and showed a little patience we would all be better off.
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DPoS
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July 29, 2013, 01:43:30 AM |
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you missed the point where no one has to dance for you... you didn't read and you ask 1000 questions.. you can put a mirror on the floor and look up your ass for your answers.. ok? OK, I understand it is difficult to you admit facts... Even if that means answer "no". ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) yes facts.. the one that is true is that you are a troll.. with big questions like 5 year old asking daddy why is the sun yellow.. but why daddy, why is it yellow..and the next, why does your pants stinks.. yes you have to change diaper.. you enjoy this?? dumb answers to dumb questions? ask away more dumb things.. lets all feed the troll here, it is such a new thing in year 2013 to walk into thread and be classic drunk ass in town no?? oh wait.. one more thing.. yes... oh wait.. yes it was the same as before.. circle circle around and around same things but no it is not.. you follow more?? keep reading since you know i will say something for you to eat troll.. just wait.. there will be something just keep reading.. mmm.. wait more food keep reading and there over in the next yard.. go fetch it.. yes it is the facts you want.. almost there.. just some more reading.. please keep reading.. all the answers are here.. just wait a bit.. more is coming..
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erk
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July 29, 2013, 02:10:36 AM Last edit: July 29, 2013, 08:26:03 AM by erk |
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The default assumptions on that calculator need to be questioned. It's like one of those Al Gore climate fear charts. It basically says by the end of the year no ASICs out there will be returning a profit. If that is the case then people will simply switch them off and the difficulty will stop rising. They won't switch them all off at once, the Avalon and ASICminer chip based ones will be the first, as they are the least power efficient. I question their difficulty projections. What it does tell me is the days of $50/GH/s are over, to remain competitive ASIC manufactures are going to be looking at offering product below $20/GH/s or they are going to fade away.
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KyrosKrane
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July 29, 2013, 02:34:38 AM |
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The default assumptions on that calculator need to be questioned. It basically says by the end of the year no ASICs out there will be returning a profit. If that is the case then people will simply switch them off and the difficulty will stop rising. They won't switch them all off at once, the Avalon and ASICminer chip based ones will be the first, as they are the least power efficient. Yeah, I was just answering the question. I'm not happy with that calculator either. Among other things, it assumes a constant rate of increase in difficulty. At the default settings, that means the difficulty a year from now would be 200x the current value. I think that's a tad extreme, and probably unrealistic. Lowering the Difficulty Increase/month from 62% to 52% means it would be 100x the current difficulty after a year. A small change can make a big difference when compounded over a year. Aside from that, it limits its profitability calculations to one year.
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Doff
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July 29, 2013, 02:58:28 AM |
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The default assumptions on that calculator need to be questioned. It basically says by the end of the year no ASICs out there will be returning a profit. If that is the case then people will simply switch them off and the difficulty will stop rising. They won't switch them all off at once, the Avalon and ASICminer chip based ones will be the first, as they are the least power efficient. I appreciate it, I just wanted to know where it was from so I could mess with it, pretty nice. Doff Yeah, I was just answering the question. I'm not happy with that calculator either. Among other things, it assumes a constant rate of increase in difficulty. At the default settings, that means the difficulty a year from now would be 200x the current value. I think that's a tad extreme, and probably unrealistic. Lowering the Difficulty Increase/month from 62% to 52% means it would be 100x the current difficulty after a year. A small change can make a big difference when compounded over a year. Aside from that, it limits its profitability calculations to one year.
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mnyonpa
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July 29, 2013, 03:45:56 AM |
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The default assumptions on that calculator need to be questioned.
I don’t think it is possible to write a calculator that would predict at which difficulty people will start shutting down their ASICS and the difficulty will stop growing. IMO the calculator by The Genesis Block is a “pessimistic” variant which was really necessary because all calculators that accounted for difficulty increase lacked the delayed mining start parameter. Still, I think in a year it gives quite accurate prediction because a long time, much longer than a year has to pass before the hashrate race is over.
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BTC address for donations: 1EEjkAqLXTxscD24D1S6aXWtxPUWxSkHcd
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kingcoin
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July 29, 2013, 06:17:43 AM |
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I guess the question I have is... what is the chance of getting a hole-in-one with their first stab at the chip.
Also all these parties have to communicate and work together: KnC <-> ORSoC <-> unknown FPGA-ASIC conversion house <-> unknown ASIC vendor There are so many things which can go wrong when you make an ASIC. Getting it right the first time is hard.
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timmmers
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July 29, 2013, 07:00:45 AM |
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I guess the question I have is... what is the chance of getting a hole-in-one with their first stab at the chip. It seems that bitfury missed his target by about 50% in performance, but it is still a useful chip and they are going with it.
The question is... can KnC/OrSoC get it all right the first time around. Will they be able to work with it if their chip only does 50% performance. They probably have enough profit margin to be able to product send twice as many units out to folks (like BFL Big Rigs) if performance was 1/2, but would they have enough chips? I think also being from the U.S. of A., I don't want to have to deal with whatever VAT or Euro centric issues there are (and that is some of my own irrational baggage).
The units are modular, so with the possible exception of Jupiters they would just need to add more modules. One reason I went with them in the first place, good logical design. I was hoping that maybe the modules themselves may be easily swappable to upgrade on site in the future...adding or replacing a module in future would be a very useful thing for us to be able to do and a big time and cost saver all round wouldn't it? There is no VAT outside of the EU. There's a calculator for duty linked a few pages back by me if that worries you and others have researched that too..I think the U.S. does better than we do on that front. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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ziomik
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SELL bitcoinmarket.net | bitcoinitalia.com SELL
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July 29, 2013, 07:33:35 AM |
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DOMINI IN VENDITA/NOLEGGIO bitcoinmarket.net | bitcoinitalia.com
Contattatemi pure per info. ---- +++ ---- "Se domani senti due massaie che parlano di bitcoin tra di loro dal macellaio, forse e' il momento di vendere.. se pero' le sentirai fra 10 anni forse staranno solo pagando il conto" GBianchi ---- +++ ----
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androz
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July 29, 2013, 07:48:26 AM |
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fear monger !! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
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eve
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July 29, 2013, 08:21:55 AM |
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fear monger !! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Can someone please check this out?? is it true??
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androz
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July 29, 2013, 08:48:40 AM |
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fear monger !! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Can someone please check this out?? is it true?? we saw this in the italian local forum https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263683.0Xfox claim that the problem appeared when he tried to purchase a mercury i don't know this guy but i don't see any apparent reason in providing a fake report in a local forum. maybe is only a "technical" problem anyone has tried to buy a knc miner today?
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Rampion
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July 29, 2013, 08:59:29 AM |
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Yes, this is old news, it was blocked the very first day. Too much money suddenly flowing to a previously inactive account. I'd be surprised if they did not have similar problems with their regular bank account. When you are a new company which is a joint venture of two small companies that suddenly receives millions in small payments from all over the world there are some alarms that go off.
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androz
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July 29, 2013, 09:07:07 AM |
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Yes, this is old news, it was blocked the very first day.
Too much money suddenly flowing to a previously inactive account.
but the guy tried to buy it today ![Cool](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cool.gif) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fimageshack.us%2Fa%2Fimg839%2F5042%2Fw8ii.png&t=665&c=6zFjsFobs-NvNA) is still blocked?
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sickpig
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July 29, 2013, 09:09:31 AM |
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Yes, this is old news, it was blocked the very first day. Too much money suddenly flowing to a previously inactive account. I'd be surprised if they did not have similar problems with their regular bank account. When you are a new company which is a joint venture of two small companies that suddenly receives millions in small payments from all over the world there are some alarms that go off. As you said you're referring to paypal problem they had the very first payment day ( https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-13, June 4th), problem that KnCminer managed to fix quite promptly (announcement https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-14). It seems strange that it is happening again though.
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Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
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BenTuras
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July 29, 2013, 09:15:32 AM |
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Paypal and KnC probably agreed on a new higher alarm/block account threshold on June 4th and they passed that new threshold. It will probably be fixed within a day. So KnC is just too succesfull, you gotta stop ordering !!
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sickpig
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July 29, 2013, 09:26:57 AM |
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Paypal and KnC probably agreed on a new higher alarm/block account threshold on June 4th and they passed that new threshold. It will probably be fixed within a day. makes sense! I'd have thought it before. thanks So KnC is just too succesfull, you gotta stop ordering !!
yep, if your theory is correct this means they surpassed their selling goals. Or maybe they just forgot to rearrange a higher threshold with paypal after having launched Mercury ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
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