Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[600watt]

Hey all,

Long time reader, long time holder, ex long time miner ... prolly (I think?) first time poster. Usually don't login to read the WO, so the name will not be familiar to the regulars, but I've been here a while.

Holding since .... late 2012(?) maybe .... certainly around Risto times - definitely before Searing (I remember when Searing was just searing, before he was "Brad"). Also remember that dude from HI who convinced everyone he lost his BTC and then scammed some people.....

As a miner I was around for the whole BFL debacle, and got some really good mileage out of my KNC rig before that turned in to a scam.

Annnnnyway.

Canadian (so, looking at Jimbo, maybe(?) for this advice) - but .... likely looking to cash out some coin and retire soon-ish.

Problem is, I'm not that old (late 30ish) and have a pretty solid gig with good benefits and all that.

I really need some advice around the tax hit I might take, and how much I really need to not just live, but live well during the next 40, 50 (+) years.

I recognize I can run the numbers myself (and I have), but looking for confirmation that I've not been off on any assumptions. Question is, who does one ask? Is this an accountant (EY, KPMG, etc?) type question, or a wealth advisor (who best I can tell is just a dope off the street with a spreadsheet) or ... someone else?

Never been much of a money focused dude (beyond knowing that BTC was a revolutionary idea when I heard it) - so - I really don't know who to ask.

I'd rather not dump 5-600 bucks on a meeting that will be no help. I'd like to emerge with a plan with firm numbers and targets attached.

unfortunately I am out of merit. welcome. I wouldn't recommend EY, KPMG, Deloitte or PWC at all! they have no clue. they sail on the ship "blockchain- not bitcoin"
which will be wrecked soon. fidelity? they are (were?) bitcoin miners, they understand it better imho.

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[kurious]

To the moon?

[bitcoinPsycho]

Wednesday's love Wednesday's

[Last of the V8s]

[serveria.com]

My god, poor mindrust POOR MINDRUST...  

Many men have fallen during battle, we will remember them but the strongest hands march on to the promised lands together.

Will put a MINDRUST number plate on my first Lambo in his memory! 

[Last of the V8s]

if there are any bagpipes at my funeral just flipping shoot me
oh wait. if there are any flipping bagpipes at my funeral i will haunt you to within inches of your sanity

[Arriemoller]

It's gonna be tough for a lot of idealistic Bitcoiners to accept the fact that some of bitcoin's "layer 2" is gonna be built by people who do not share the cypherpunk ethos.

Thing is... that's really part of the ethos isn't it?  I mean, who is not allowed in the pool?

This is why I have always sort of resisted the whole "fuck the banks" aspect...  Central banks? Yes.  But people like Paypal, Visa, Western Union, Wells Fargo?  They are gonna play or get slaughtered.  They will end up in.. as we are seeing happen.  Bitcoin has to be strong enough to handle it.

Yeah, I agree, I mean bitcoin is a currency, and banks and credit unions and the likes handle currency. It's not like we didn't have banks before fiat money came along.
"Be your own bank" is a bit like "keep your cash in the mattress" If the cash/key is not in your possession, it's not your cash/coins.
your private key on a piece of paper just just takes up less space in the mattress.

[cAPSLOCK]

3 years bear market ended.

5 months after the halving.

Hash rate ATH.

Taproot and Schnorr incoming.

Companies relocating few % of there assets into Bitcoin.

Supply dropping on exchanges.

People already struggling getting 1 full coin.



Nice $100k+ green candle i guess.

I am gonna risk looking like a jackass... but you know.  No pride etc.

So many models show us kinda leveling out.  Losing volatility, not gaining quite as much as the first 3 times.  Follow the pattern.  Each candle gets a little smaller.   And it makes sense right?  I mean to go from $1 to 1000 takes less than a grand.  1000 to 20000 takes 19 grand.  Etc.  a LOOOOOT of money has to come in to get a cnadle like the first one this time.  Eventually it starts settling down.  Many long term analysts take this basic position.

However.

We have barely seen any adoption.  I think those first few waves?  Maybe more like tremors. (Hmm mixed metaphors)  The big one is still yet to come.  I think it is possible we see a candle at some point that is bigger than the first three.  Or at least breaks the pattern.  The upward part of the "S curve".  We might be about to see it now. when giant corps and nations start getting in. Retail won't really be able to even keep up.  And then after the surprise of surprises, we can see the descending volatility log curve top of the s curve sort of resume.

My biggest fear is it breaks bitcoin.  We are about to get the mamma of all throughput tests.  And we are liable to see BCH and ETH centralize and break.  I actually think LTC has more chance of staying somewhat decentralized than the others.

The right choices were made for BTC.  But we will need to start making the world understand why fees are not the point.  Because I predict they are about to get pretty damn big.

[EatonABooger]

if there are any bagpipes at my funeral just flipping shoot me
oh wait. if there are any flipping bagpipes at my funeral i will haunt you to within inches of your sanity

do you know why bagpipper players are always marching?

because they are trying to get away from the sound.     

[DaRude]

Well, it's nice to be officially "wealthy" again at these BTC/USD prices. Freaking surreal.

Too bad the Paypal news is so lame. Not being able to move crypto between accounts, or into your own custody is going to red-pill quite a few folk about "not your keys, not your coins"

Gentlemen.

Yeah, that was one of my initial thoughts too. But that's eclipsed imo by the ability to send your bitcoin to paypal and then be able to spend it anywhere paypal is accepted, which is almost everywhere online. So just one extra step allows us to spend bitcoin almost everywhere. That's huge (no need to keep huge amounts of bitcoin there).

Hmm, it seems that if you cannot send/receive your own bitcoin to/from your paypal account, it's perhaps not as ground breaking as we'd hoped. Still a positive development though.

I would have been surprised if they would allow sending/receiving.  Nor BTC withdrawal, and obviously this is a big win for KYC.  And using it as "cash" for purchases will be it being spent at it's market rate etc.

it's messy.  There will be big negatives.  In some ways the status quo companies coming in is a bit of an invasion.

But this is SUCH a positive step in spite of all that.  And now the race is going to be who is the one that offers the most features you want.  Paypal, Square, Baakt, Fidelity, Robinhood, Etc?

This is DEFINATELY one of those "don't let the perfect get in the way of the good" moments.

I think Square/Cash App is going to set the tone for the industry, although PayPal is certainly a 900lb gorilla.

Or what if they used some kind of thunder bolt fast channels between their walled gardens, that would allow KYCed users to transfer their "BTC" between the approved platforms. Step 2?

[600watt]

3 years bear market ended.

5 months after the halving.

Hash rate ATH.

Taproot and Schnorr incoming.

Companies relocating few % of there assets into Bitcoin.

Supply dropping on exchanges.

People already struggling getting 1 full coin.



Nice $100k+ green candle i guess.

I am gonna risk looking like a jackass... but you know.  No pride etc.

So many models show us kinda leveling out.  Losing volatility, not gaining quite as much as the first 3 times.  Follow the pattern.  Each candle gets a little smaller.   And it makes sense right?  I mean to go from $1 to 1000 takes less than a grand.  1000 to 20000 takes 19 grand.  Etc.  a LOOOOOT of money has to come in to get a cnadle like the first one this time.  Eventually it starts settling down.  Many long term analysts take this basic position.

However.

We have barely seen any adoption.  I think those first few waves?  Maybe more like tremors. (Hmm mixed metaphors)  The big one is still yet to come.  I think it is possible we see a candle at some point that is bigger than the first three.  Or at least breaks the pattern.  The upward part of the "S curve".  We might be about to see it now. when giant corps and nations start getting in. Retail won't really be able to even keep up.  And then after the surprise of surprises, we can see the descending volatility log curve top of the s curve sort of resume.

My biggest fear is it breaks bitcoin.  We are about to get the mamma of all throughput tests.  And we are liable to see BCH and ETH centralize and break.  I actually think LTC has more chance of staying somewhat decentralized than the others.

The right choices were made for BTC.  But we will need to start making the world understand why fees are not the point.  Because I predict they are about to get pretty damn big.

again, out of merit. can't agree more. one of the run-ups will be "the one". where it does not get dumped back 80%. I don't think it will happen this time around. maybe next time. but just in case I am wrong I will not sell majority of stash whatsoever. majority will stay in bitcoin forever.

regarding the fees it will get more crowded again. probably a good thing that all PayPal users are not playing around with their $20 worth of btc on the main chain.

[lightfoot]

TRAIN TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Phil_S]

I waited to see $12800 for so long!!! Hard to believe we finally here!

Now if only we could hold it above that level for a while...

We visited 'above $12800' land in the summer 2019, but only for a few short hours...

[Hueristic]

Google at this point is where Altavista was when Google came on the scene. People used Google because it had a simple page, was quick, and not choked with crap.

All this has happened before, all this will happen again.

AltaVista never had near the money at that time that Google has now. They won't be as easy to buy out, especially not by Yahoo 

I have started to use https://asciimoo.github.io/searx/ some time ago, it's a very nice meta-search engine that can easily run from an old RPi.
While it is not perfect, it keeps you from being tracked by the "don't do evil" lunatics.

Thanks alot for this!

I'm checking it out now.

[dragonvslinux]

Back on track then. Overshot the $12K target with ease



CME chart looks great 



Hope you already bought the dip!

[Paashaas]

I am gonna risk looking like a jackass... but you know.  No pride etc.

So many models show us kinda leveling out.  Losing volatility, not gaining quite as much as the first 3 times.  Follow the pattern.  Each candle gets a little smaller.   And it makes sense right?  I mean to go from $1 to 1000 takes less than a grand.  1000 to 20000 takes 19 grand.  Etc.  a LOOOOOT of money has to come in to get a cnadle like the first one this time.  Eventually it starts settling down.  Many long term analysts take this basic position.

However.

We have barely seen any adoption.  I think those first few waves?  Maybe more like tremors. (Hmm mixed metaphors)  The big one is still yet to come.  I think it is possible we see a candle at some point that is bigger than the first three.  Or at least breaks the pattern.  The upward part of the "S curve".  We might be about to see it now. when giant corps and nations start getting in. Retail won't really be able to even keep up.  And then after the surprise of surprises, we can see the descending volatility log curve top of the s curve sort of resume.

My biggest fear is it breaks bitcoin.  We are about to get the mamma of all throughput tests.  And we are liable to see BCH and ETH centralize and break.  I actually think LTC has more chance of staying somewhat decentralized than the others.

The right choices were made for BTC.  But we will need to start making the world understand why fees are not the point.  Because I predict they are about to get pretty damn big.

Bitcoin will bubble up all the way to $1m per pop in 10 years, it will be legendary.



https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1318953350906310657

[Arriemoller]

My daughter just suggested having the 100k-party literally on the moon. I explained that would be to expensive, but maybe my old brain is just not thinking big enough....

One problem there, many of us is too old to pass the medical I'm afraid.

[lightfoot]

Google at this point is where Altavista was when Google came on the scene. People used Google because it had a simple page, was quick, and not choked with crap.

All this has happened before, all this will happen again.

AltaVista never had near the money at that time that Google has now. They won't be as easy to buy out, especially not by Yahoo 

I have started to use https://asciimoo.github.io/searx/ some time ago, it's a very nice meta-search engine that can easily run from an old RPi.
While it is not perfect, it keeps you from being tracked by the "don't do evil" lunatics.

Sure, but the point is when the dinosaurs get to a certain size, the little mammals start coming in and stealing their eggs. Remember that Google also built its brand on the words "Don't be Evil", and that meant something for quite a while.

Sears, AT&T, GM, Exxon, etc. Few things last forever and when the barrier to entry is low like the Internet, things can change in a flash.

[Indymoney]

[lightfoot]

Also remember Altavista was owned by Digital Equipment Corporation, at the time the largest computer company around. DEC got big because they sold "minicomputers" in the 1960's that ate the eggs of the mainframe manufacturers (IBM, Speery, Honeywell, etc). Then in the 1980's they explicitly buried their own forays into the personal computer marketplace because it would undercut their minicomputer sales and profits.

That worked out.... poorly.... for them and they were dead in a decade.

So when you think a company is big, mighty, eternal, google-y check your premises. You might find one of them is wrong.