Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Vectra]

Gotta say I thought that 10k was well and truly behind us when we were sitting at over 12K, with the halving In our rear view mirror and all the bullish sentiment only just a month ago.
I know we are all good here on WO but man this is a real gut punch.
I guess the honey badger didn't get the memo that we are (soon to be were if this goes on much longer) in a bull market.

10.5k was inevitable to retest, but I thought we might defend it though and do one more wave up to 13-15k. Imo, this makes an end of this particular wave up and we're up for deeper retrace. Stocks might help in that too.

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[bitcoinPsycho]

Up 3% over the last 90 days ...steady growth lol

[SwayStar123]

Looks to me like the $1,000/btc and below price levels need more testing. I'm just telling ya'll the truth. I could see maybe bitcoin long term stable in the $200-$500 range after a lot of faffing about.

If we do go down there, $975 looks like some good support

[nutildah]

Surely if all that Defi crap is falling to pieces the money would go into bitcoin (if investors are crypto literate people).

Why on earth are people selling the king?

The weight of the DeFi implosion is carrying over to BTC as a lot of Johnny Come Lately yield farmers are hanging up their lightly worn crypto hats for good.

For once the tail is wagging the dog.

On the plus side Sushi Swap is down to #99 in the top 100. Once LINK falls back to where it was in the 20s or 30s then we'll know the DeFi diarrhea storm has finally passed.

[JayJuanGee]

Surely if all that Defi crap is falling to pieces the money would go into bitcoin (if investors are crypto literate people).

Why on earth are people selling the king?

I agree with your overall idea that quite a bit of that divested defi capital would have decent chances to flow into BTC, but I doubt that there are too many circumstances in which we are going to get direct trade-offs like that in terms of being able to directly see the money flowing straight into bitcoin.. even though that is likely where a decent amount of it will end up going.

We also have liquidation confusion, too, in which all assets crash simultaneously, which would include bitcoin, too.. We have seen those short-term correlations on a number of occasions in bitcoin, and of course, us longer term BTC holders advantage by the bunch of dumb fucks in the market who don't really know where to put their value, they are deluded into thinking that bitcoin is the same as the other crap that they were buying, and it takes them a while to actually recognize the value proposition for bitcoin, even very smart people suffer from these kinds of asymmetry of information problems.

Even we had a difficult time realizing how much a variety of shitcoins (including but not limited to ethereum) had devalued against bitcoin in the past 3 years because many charts show 2 years or 5 years and sometimes we miss the chart that shows where that shitcoin ethereum was really at, and for some reason we start to wrongly conclude that it is appreciating in value as compared with BTC, when it had actually gone down 90% in comparison to BTC, so it's relative performance to BTC had looked better than it actually deserved on those shorter time horizons.   Normies get confused about that kind of nonsense, so it takes them a while to actually recognize that they had failed/refused (or were mislead) in their understanding of bitcoin.

We are not over the nonsense, yet, and of course, if there is some momentum, then of course, whales like to take advantage of momentum.  Don't be surprised if we do not get some spectacular and perhaps convincing FUD spreading announcement in the coming days.. but in the end, we just should be appreciating (to the extent that we can) that we are in a better position in terms of our information about bitcoin, and we can either buy some more lil fiends (aka king daddies) or just HODL through the craziness that remains part of this space - surely being able to recognize some of the ongoing nonsensical claims that we are likely to be seeing around much of this.

[qwizzie]

Surely if all that Defi crap is falling to pieces the money would go into bitcoin (if investors are crypto literate people).

Why on earth are people selling the king?

We have coins and we have tokens

https://coinmarketcap.com/coins/
https://coinmarketcap.com/tokens/

Within tokens we have DeFi tokens

https://coinmarketcap.com/defi/

Tokens seems to get hit hardest lately, specifically the DeFi tokens.
From the coins category (which includes Bitcoin), the Altcoins were already hit hard these last few years due to the brutal bear market (most are at 85% / 95% Down from ATH price).

Maybe the DeFi tokens and other tokens are getting cashed out, to be re-invested in the coins category (and then specifically re-invested into those coins that have very high % Down from ATH).
So maybe there will be a flow from tokens to coins. Triggering an Altcoins season when least expected.

[hv_]

Surely if all that Defi crap is falling to pieces the money would go into bitcoin (if investors are crypto literate people).

Why on earth are people selling the king?

We have coins and we have tokens

https://coinmarketcap.com/coins/
https://coinmarketcap.com/tokens/

Within tokens we have DeFi tokens

https://coinmarketcap.com/defi/

Tokens seems to get hit hardest lately, specifically the DeFi tokens.
From the coins category (which includes Bitcoin), the Altcoins were already hit hard these last few years due to the bear market (most are at 85% / 95% Down from ATH).

Maybe the DeFi tokens and other tokens are getting cashed out, to be re-invested in the coins category (and then specifically re-invested into those coins that have very high % Down from ATH).
So maybe there will be a flow from tokens to coins. Triggering an Altcoins season when least expected.

How much is scam ? More than 99%?

[qwizzie]

Surely if all that Defi crap is falling to pieces the money would go into bitcoin (if investors are crypto literate people).

Why on earth are people selling the king?

We have coins and we have tokens

https://coinmarketcap.com/coins/
https://coinmarketcap.com/tokens/

Within tokens we have DeFi tokens

https://coinmarketcap.com/defi/

Tokens seems to get hit hardest lately, specifically the DeFi tokens.
From the coins category (which includes Bitcoin), the Altcoins were already hit hard these last few years due to the bear market (most are at 85% / 95% Down from ATH price).

Maybe the DeFi tokens and other tokens are getting cashed out, to be re-invested in the coins category (and then specifically re-invested into those coins that have very high % Down from ATH).
So maybe there will be a flow from tokens to coins. Triggering an Altcoins season when least expected.

How much is scam ? More than 99%?

From the coins ? or the tokens ?

From the tokens i assume a lot are scams. Or they simply got too depending on one blockchain (Ethereum) and are now getting faced with a single point of failure (high fees).

[Arriemoller]

I sense a storm coming our way, moving from north to south.
Should we name it ?

Hurricane Bearolina

Good one.

Is it really a hurrycane or just a dropical storm?

EDIT:
my take:

dropical storm Bigbart

I am thinking that the severity of our current storm is somehow related in a kind of exacerbated way to some purging of froth that seems to be taking place in the ethereum (and perhaps related) space.  It may be too early to call that dynamic, and surely there are likely a decent number of 14 year old snot-nosed investors in ethereum, defi, yield farming et al that deserved to be purged to zero or somewhere in the vicinity of zero and to verify if they are still committed to such projects after a wee bit of froth purging.  Hard to know, exactly.

Valid option, imho.
VitalikCoin is dumping even harder, like many other Alts. Don't know how much the defi crap is dumping at the time.

EDIT:
I have to do some cleaning now, pasteurize some raw milk, transform some of it into a caffè latte and try fresh baked cookies with weed.
So in case they're too intensive and i won't show no more today   have a nice evening, do yourself something good  

"pasteurize some raw milk" You have a cow in the garage?

[JayJuanGee]

Well I have written several times that anything above 10k is not sustainable. I know that I will get Negative reactions again but I will probably still be writing this the next few years.

When you are right, you are right...

What can you do about it?

Hopefully, you have not failed/refused to prepare yourself in the event that you might happen to be wrong... which seems quite likely..  at least if we zoom out for a while into the future, let's say 6 to 18 months.. could drag out for a bit over 2 years, but I doubt that it will take that long for the next UPpity cycle to play out.

I am pretty sure that proudhon is largely and sufficiently prepared for UP, even though he tries to act like a dumbass dipshit nocoiner.. we know better than that, proudhon.   

[Searing]

Well I have written several times that anything above 10k is not sustainable. I know that I will get Negative reactions again but I will probably still be writing this the next few years.

Glad somebody else see the obvious writing on the wall.

If things go to sh*t further my view is 9K BTC and related crypto altcoin prices and gold going sideways...and thus will do so for years...

I am assuming that the stock market will eventually reflect reality...thus not big on a future of around 0% on bonds and 25% dump in value or more on the stock portfolio

I can't see BTC/crypt NOT acting like gold in such a recession/depression environment, also due to the use of BTC/crypto internationally which will be even more 'dire' than

the USA and again BTC/crypto IMHO at worst sideways in price like gold as a hedge against all this

anyway...that is my bet..the real problem is the 10% unemployment rate which may never come back to less than that for years..robotics, work at home more do' able

now...it is gonna be ugly no matter who wins the white house

anyway, I'm living off (and will adjust) my stocks/stay out of debt/ and next year more $$$ from soc security....so I can afford to 'speculate' on BTC/crypto

But I state this now if Trump gets re-elected I'm gonna up my timeline (of the old nursing home and all my crap gets sold and out of the house in 20 years..

.as they drag me away...kicking screaming to the Nursing Home...so why not pull the plug on all my crap sooner? Just go

and play 'millennial' and sell the house/crap/ and just rent 20 years early...and travel.....I'm not gonna stick around the shitstorm of society that is gonna

happen if Trump gets re-elected..it will be a nightmare enough if/hopefully folks elected to whatever office act in an adult bi-partisan manner to fix this cluster**ck!

...might be the time to take a page from the young folks and get rid of all/most of my crap/house and travel...of course, I probably should do this

now ..but pretty sure .. I'd get off the fence and do above promptly on a Trump re-election.

Life might be a lot better just traveling about the world from bed and breakfast

to bed and breakfast (they have waffles!) a few months at a time in exotic faraway places...watching another 4 years of this Trump Sh*tshow of 'bad management' as

best I could describe such has lost its charm indeed!

anyway why I will HODL....not like I see a lot of really fun choices....and seems silly to put ALL my assets into the stock market and the coming economy

thus HODL'ing as my Go-To Hell plan...big whoop...no change in lifestyle..sh*t on a stick ...let it ride!

the needs must, as the devil drives

https://www.encyclopedia.com/humanities/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/needs-must-when-devil-drives

Ancient Chinese Curse: "May you live in 'interesting times' indeed

Brad

[OutOfMemory]

"pasteurize some raw milk" You have a cow in the garage?

Hell no, but i'm surrounded by farms 

[El duderino_]

B00Z/F00D

HODLers life

Now BED/SEX

HODLers night

Cheers

[LFC_Bitcoin]

B00Z/F00D

HODLers life

Now BED/SEX

HODLers night

Cheers

Haha

Never change El Dude

[vapourminer]

Looks to me like the $1,000/btc and below price levels need more testing. I'm just telling ya'll the truth. I could see maybe bitcoin long term stable in the $200-$500 range after a lot of faffing about.

you said sub 10k, not sub 1k

so youre admitting you could be off THAT much

much wrong, very useless. begone foul creature

[AlcoHoDL]

Looks to me like the $1,000/btc and below price levels need more testing. I'm just telling ya'll the truth. I could see maybe bitcoin long term stable in the $200-$500 range after a lot of faffing about.

Comformed.

---

"faffing"

New word for me, thanks hon.

[Biodom]

thinking of buying a bit, selling idea did not even cross my mind.
however, i think that you guys are wrong about the defi idea.

Mind you, the current crop is unimpressive, but so were excite, lycos and infoseek before google showed up in search.
Defi is inevitable, the question is only who the 1000 pound gorilla would be and which network would host it.
If you know of an app on btc that could do de-fi, speak out. There are some wallets, maybe Liquid, not much else (so far).
Cough-ethereum-cough is in the early lead, but it could be meaningless as we are talking about 4-7 bil out of 100 tril or so deployed there so far.
Plenty of time for btc to show its dominance in that area or leave it for some newcomer.
Eth cannot do defi because fees are too high, negating any reasonable tx, hence the recent crash.

[bitserve]

Looks to me like the $1,000/btc and below price levels need more testing. I'm just telling ya'll the truth. I could see maybe bitcoin long term stable in the $200-$500 range after a lot of faffing about.

Cantfirmed.

[nullius]

Mind you, the current crop is unimpressive, but so were excite, lycos and infoseek before google showed up in search.
Defi is inevitable, the question is only who the 1000 pound gorilla would be and which network would host it.
If you know of an app on btc that could do de-fi, speak out. There are some wallets, maybe Liquid, not much else (so far).

Watch the development of Spectrum, the Layer 3 counterpart to RGB.  Its basic design is to use L2 Lightning (and thus, the Bitcoin blockchain) to enforce scalable, efficient, private off-chain execution of smart contracts.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/video-interview-giacomo-zucco-rgb-tokens-built-bitcoin
The video interview discusses defi explicitly.  Giacomo Zucco has quite the sense of humour:  He jokes about the oddity of a Bitcoin maximalist developing something that can be used for such awful things as defi and tokens.

Of course, it does tokens.  Apparently, the Tether people are interested.  (Maybe funding this?  Not sure.)  Imagine USDT running on Bitcoin proper.

The RGB/Spectrum smart contract language is Blockstream’s Simplicity, which is designed from its inception to support formal verification.  The glue that binds the off-chain contracts to the blockchain and makes them enforceable is a quite clever trick originally invented by Peter Todd.

(I do think there is a place for scalable on-chain contract execution, for use cases in which parties really need to be able to just disconnect and let the contract run on the blockchain.  But it won’t be Ethereum; ETH2 is basically a desperate mirage at this point, insofar as I can discern.  Other projects will eat their lunch.  And for most use cases, on-chain execution is just a massive waste of resources.)


Many replies to catch up with!  I’ll take this bit by bit...

[xhomerx10]