Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

Fully inspired, I got creative:



We care.

The left pipe should be rusty.

 Naw, he's doing it right; you gotta make sure the rusty pipe is not an easy fit.

[1680258602]

1680258602

[1680258602]

1680258602

[1680258602]

1680258602

[1680258602]

1680258602

[1680258602]

1680258602

[OutOfMemory]

Fully inspired, I got creative:



We care.

The left pipe should be rusty.

 Naw, he's doing it right; you gotta make sure the rusty pipe is not an easy fit.

I see 
well worth a merit.

[nullius]

Fully inspired, I got creative:

And here I thought that your secret agenda was to induce Woers subconsciously to fantasize about what if someone who is a stellar genius compared to proudhon were female.

I am not swayed by this conspiracy.

We care.

But... but... your GIF violates social distancing rules!  That’s just cruel.

[SwayStar123]

Entered shorts at 10472, already locked in some profits to cover fees in case we go back to entry (where i moved my stop)

[proudhon]

Entered shorts at 10472, already locked in some profits to cover fees in case we go back to entry (where i moved my stop)

Excellent move! I would expect in the short, medium, and long term that bitcoin will go down. If you can hold your short for a few years you might become a billionaire.

[Dabs]

https://blockstream.info/address/1DGwqAM8mV4aJVPidoBp9Zfz8GKhAzLkma
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/ipcanh/damaged_secret_key/

I don’t use paper wallets but to only have one copy & not have it laminated?

School boy errors!

it was worth like $250  at the time, so i dont blame him for not taking that many precautions

Even then, that's still $250. That is like, or was, maybe close to one ten ounce bar of silver. Or a whole lot of hamburgers. Or kept up to date and moved those coins to new addresses, like compressed ones, and even segwit ones.

At minimum, he should have kept maybe more than one paper copy, or saved some on USB sticks, burned to CD/DVD.

I have the private key and seed words to one of my altcoin wallets that act as my eth miner (similar to what other real eth miners do) printed and stored in a safe.

(off topic, it's a token that so far generates eth at predictable rates, which I in turn, convert to either BTC or to fiat, as needed, the initial investment I wrote off 2 or 3 years ago.)

[SwayStar123]

Entered shorts at 10472, already locked in some profits to cover fees in case we go back to entry (where i moved my stop)

~snip~

Excellent move! I would expect in the short, medium, and long term that bitcoin will go down. If you can hold your short for a few years you might become a billionaire.

nah im closing it around 9800

[nullius]

I think I’m not alone in rooting for anyone who shorts in this market to get fucked.

I would expect in the short, medium, and long term that bitcoin will go down. If you can hold your short for a few years you might become a billionaire.

Is proudhon actually unaware that maximum potential profits from a short are limited?  I confirmed by mathematics that the difference between a positive integer < 10⁹ and zero is finite and < 10⁹.


(Edit—I also realize what ought to be obvious:  Anyone shorting Bitcoin is not holding any.  Because being long and short in the same asset would be insane.  If you’re long and you expect a drop, you sell:  You don’t borrow more of the asset to sell it.  (Edit again:  Though if one were to start applying “proudhon maths” consistently, maybe going simultaneously long and short in the same asset would be a hedge.))

Long bitcoin, short the bankers

Go, Bitcoin, go!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Who else?


 

[JayJuanGee]

Entered shorts at 10472, already locked in some profits to cover fees in case we go back to entry (where i moved my stop)

Excellent move! I would expect in the short, medium, and long term that bitcoin will go down. If you can hold your short for a few years you might become a billionaire.

What would you consider the odds of "might"? Approximately, .00937182% give or take .00127668% (8 digits for more precision and to appease the likes of nullius) or am I being too generous in my estimations of what you consider as a reasonable understanding of "might"?

I think I’m not alone in rooting for anyone who shorts in this market to get fucked.

Yes, from time to time, we do get to witness a whole hell of a lot of reckening of shorts, and surely we might wish that such reckening happens more frequently than it does.

Personally, I am looking forward to the day when some really BIG ASS players get recked BIG time when they play around with fractional reserving (rehypothecating), and get their asses handed to them because they had not sufficiently covered for the sometimes unexpected UPpities that can happen.  Not sure if it will happen (or be disclosed), but thinking that there are decently good chances that it will happen at some point in our next BTC run (presuming one comes).

(Edit—I also realize what ought to be obvious:  Anyone shorting Bitcoin is not holding any.  Because being long and short in the same asset would be insane.  If you’re long and you expect a drop, you sell:  You don’t borrow more of the asset to sell it.  (Edit again:  Though if one were to start applying “proudhon maths” consistently, maybe going simultaneously long and short in the same asset would be a hedge.))

It seems to me that there are a lot of more experienced traders that figure out ways to hedge both directions, including shorting and including playing with margin, and surely the smarter ones figure out meaningful ratios to play rather that betting all or nothing or even betting exceedingly BIG - because many of us likely realize that there continues to be nuances in regards to how markets can be played, and there are also a variety of plays that can be made to remain profitable while at the same time, pigs get fed and hogs get slaughtered (or some variation of that expression that suggests incrementalism is o.k. and playing either (both) side is o.k. as long as NOT getting too greedy)

[savetherainforest]

 ROFL !!! ... Tomorrow I will go buy and make my own! <3

But what happens if you lose 1 or the order of them? ... I guess its a guessing game then... ... but meh... U probably wouldn't use that in case some kind of house burning accident or something.

[xhomerx10]

^Stamp a number on each keyword - preferably the number matching the required order of the keys - and you won't have to worry.
I want to do this - just because it's so cool!

[OutOfMemory]

But what happens if you lose 1 or the order of them?

You add the index number, possibly obfuscated (reversed order, as a simpler example)
get creative

[JayJuanGee]

^Stamp a number on each keyword - preferably the number matching the required order of the keys - and you won't have to worry.
I want to do this - just because it's so cool!

What about dealing with a "losing one" scenario that STRF had mentioned?

You suggesting that "cool" people do not have the right (if that's an appropriate word choice?) to lose any of those 12, 18 or 24 washers?

But what happens if you lose 1 or the order of them?

You add the index number, possibly obfuscated (reversed order, as a simpler example)
get creative

Same question to you OOM (ditto) - as I had raised above for homerx (except substitute "creative" for "cool").

[Crypt0n14ni]

Adding to this analysis with confirmed math and science:

https://i.imgur.com/jrBnsoe.jpg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7WtrdZ0S1w

[nullius]

 ROFL !!! ... Tomorrow I will go buy and make my own! <3

But what happens if you lose 1 or the order of them? ... I guess its a guessing game then...

O(n!) for the order.  If you totally lose the order, then it depends on how many of those precious washers there are to permute.

12! is only 479,001,600, easy for a computer to bruteforce search.  24! is an awful lot bigger, and would require over 2⁷⁹ work to bruteforce—say goodbye to your coins, unless you have a vast amount of supercomputing resources.  For BIP 39 (not Electrum), the checksum bits can help to optimize the work that you do when searching; but you will still need to do the search.

(For comparison, the ordering of a deck of cards has 52! permutations, about 2²²⁵.)

If you lose only a part of the order—say, if just a few washers fall off the end and scatter across the floor—then recovery will accordingly be easier.

What about dealing with a "losing one" scenario that STRF had mentioned?

You suggesting that "cool" people do not have the right (if that's an appropriate word choice?) to lose any of those 12, 18 or 24 washers?

Each washer that you totally lose means 2048 trial-and-error attempts to replace it, if you still know the ordering of all washers (including the blank spots).  That’s exponential, to the power of the number of lost washers.

Losing one is easy to fix!

If you lose up to 3–4 washers, it should be feasible to recover your coins with a home PC and much patience.  If you lose 5–6, recovery will be awfully expensive; it may still be worthwhile for a whale wallet.  If you lose 7, I would guess that the NSA’s supercomputers could still recover your coins—maybe.  If you lose 12, recovery will be far beyond the combined capability of all computers on earth; that is why 12 words is the minimum seed length.

I myself use 24-word seeds, for to protect even against superintelligent space aliens with star-sized computers and a few billion years of spare time.  But note that Bitcoin’s public-key security level is the same level as that of a 12-word seed, i.e. 128 bits.  (Bitcoin uses 256-bit elliptic curve keys, but brute force is not the best known way to attack that class of cryptography; this is many orders of magnitude faster.)

If you lose the ordering and lose some washers, then—eh, good luck, LOL!

You add the index number, possibly obfuscated (reversed order, as a simpler example)
get creative

I don’t think that obfuscation is in any way useful to protect you there.  Indeed, it is more likely to frustrate you—after you forget how you obfuscated.  Just rely on keeping the whole thing secret, which it needs to be anyway.


Just seeing this for the first time.  Damn, I like it.  Though you probably want to research the properties of your washer material carefully, if you want for it to be fire-resistant, etc.  Compare Jameson Lopp’s trials of various seed-storage products.

Most importantly, this requires no Bitcoin-specific hardware purchases that are usually infeasible to make anonymously.  Inexpensive materials available at any hardware store, and maybe even already on-hand in your garage—excellent!


Final edit:  Thinking over those numbers, and the BIP 39 use of a bit of PBKDF2, I am slightly revising down my estimates of how many lost washers you can recover.  I am accustomed to thinking pessimistically from a defender’s perspective, and thus making somewhat liberal assumptions about what a cracker can do.  Whereas I don’t want to dose people with hopium about how many lost seed words they can get back, realistically.  Let’s put it this way:  I would not be surprised if somebody can crack 4 words on high-end home PC hardware in a semi-reasonable time; but if you rely on doing that, you may be in for a lot of pain!

[philipma1957]

short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets

It's not a "short-term correlation" so much as a new paradigm. Let me know when you understand the difference.

It started in feb as both the market and btc crashed hard.

It is fairly true for 2020.

Far less true prior to 2020.

Most  likely will not be true in 2021 or 2022.

Part of the reason if was not true prior to 2020 was it was too novel and too small. But this year a lot of  market money has bounced into btc as markets are besides theirselves with fears of a big crash.

It is still too small a cap under 300 bill not to delink from the market.

The real question is not if they are linked at the moment but when does btc pass the market and leave it behind.

BTC already has left the market behind.

The mere fact that you can draw short-term correlation between February 2020-ish to present, hardly means shit.

It's like cavemen looking at shadows in a cave trying to proclaim that they know what is going on outside the cave, when it would be much more informative to look outside the cave and determine directly what is going on rather than relying upon shadow interpretation (aka limited information).

While you may want that to be true right here right now as I type the evidence shows it to be not yet.  When and if it goes up up and away in 2021 to 50-100k and in 2022 to 250k you would be correct.   But then again I am just a guy typing on a keyboard in NJ, USA.

 Not an insider or a big BTC owner. I dabble at it all. More of a very small business for me than anything else.

[xhomerx10]

^Stamp a number on each keyword - preferably the number matching the required order of the keys - and you won't have to worry.
I want to do this - just because it's so cool!

What about dealing with a "losing one" scenario that STRF had mentioned?

You suggesting that "cool" people do not have the right (if that's an appropriate word choice?) to lose any of those 12, 18 or 24 washers?

But what happens if you lose 1 or the order of them?

You add the index number, possibly obfuscated (reversed order, as a simpler example)
get creative

Same question to you OOM (ditto) - as I had raised above for homerx (except substitute "creative" for "cool").

 Well I don't plan to put more than a couple of cups of coffee worth of Bitcoin in that wallet, I just think it's cool.
I'll probably keep it on a fob in my pocket and then when I'm paying for a purchase, I'll pull it out, gesture towards it and swing it around while saying "Do you accept Bitcoin?"
When they say, "No, sorry we only accept cash or credit cards",  I'll remind them it's the 21st century, wink at them, tell them they should get with the program and chuckle while slipping that dazzling piece of high-tech jewelry back into my pocket. 

[AlcoHoDL]

Guys ('n' gals), don't forget to add a passphrase ("25th word"), in addition to your seed. Doing so, will protect you from someone finding the seed. Even a relatively weak passphrase will give you enough time to move your coins to another wallet when you discover that the seed has been found (and while the thief is brute-forcing the passphrase). A strong passphrase will make it virtually impossible for a thief to have access to your coins.

A passphrase (more than one, to be precise) will also add plausible deniability of ownership of your coins, should you ever be required (or be forced) to reveal your stash, as I've explained in this post.

[jojo69]