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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26384940 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Toxic2040
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October 07, 2020, 03:24:14 AM

some evening charts

could have been worse as far as Tuesdays go   Cool

#dyor

1h


4h

#stronghands
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October 07, 2020, 03:47:38 AM
Merited by ivomm (2), 600watt (1)

I just got my Coinbase Visa card and I tested it with a small POS purchase. It is working  Grin This is a huge relief for me, since SEPA transfers from exchanges takes several days and some banks are declining them. My situation is such that I have to use 2 banks and thus I have to wait at least 2 days to receive the fiat. So  I'm no longer afraid that there will be an unforeseen expense that I have to make within hours or days. Naturally, what I am going to do next is to buy bitcoins with all my saved salary after the taxes and fees. Then transfer almost all to my cold storage and keep some very small stash in my Coinbase account. From there, I can immediately transfer to the Visa card and make a purchase.

This provokes some thoughts that I want to share with you. I know that I am at the very beginning of a long way that the hardened hodlers have taken. So some of the things will be very familiar to them, I guess.

With each year of hodling, I feel more confident that the best way of living for me is to think about everything in terms of Bitcoin, not fiat. I mean, if I choose to sell a bigger part of my stash, it would be not for some impressive amount of fiat, but for something that will change my life. As the years pass by, I find that I have less interest in the current price and less heart jumps when it falls.

I am thinking seriously about a new place to live, with good climate, healthcare, etc. Hopefully, where to find really good people and true friends. Unless I have a clear idea of what I want and how to achieve this, it is pointless to sell for some fiat shitcoin. Whether usd or euro, it will lose half of its value in terms of real estate in a few years. I need to travel more and visit some of these possible destinations. I have to study these places if I can settle there and have a better life.

The only problem that I personally have is that unless Bitcoin catches up Gold in the next years, I won't be able to achieve this with my current modest stash. So the solution is only one - DCA. Slow and steady do the job. For the last 2 years I've increased my stash with 30% only relying on DCA. I think that another 50% increase in the following 15 years is possible, if the price is below Gold's of course. And if I keep my good although low paid job (internationally speaking). So I am thinking of waiting 15-ish years for an early retirement and to start spending what is needed for the new life.  By then of course there will be no need for fiat mediator, a direct buy of real estates should be possible everywhere much sooner Wink

Having said that, it would be better hypothetically speaking, if I could predict a bigger bear period to increase my stash by just one sell and rebuy. It would be a serious temptation not to sell something, if for a few weeks we make 4-5-6x increase whithout a correction. But in all other scenarious of natural growth, I think I will have the strenght to remain calm and not to sell.

Seems to me that you have engaged in a lot of good introspective and personalized thinking there, and some of your plans have evolved a bit over the years to become somewhat more solid and specific because you have spent a couple of years in a kind of solid BTC accumulation mode with a better idea regarding how your BTC stash is building up with the passage of time.

You also have established a pretty decently solid projection regarding how much BTC you should be able to accumulate over the coming years and even tentatively projecting out your balance for 15 years in order to have decently good chances of reaching your personalized version of fuck you status goals.

Surely, seems reasonable to me to be projecting out 15 years, because a lot of people take 30 years or more to attempt to accumulate for their retirement (or fuck you stash) and still after 30 years have not accumulated enough of a stash value in order to actually be able to meaningfully follow through with anything close to the level of comfortable retirement that they were anticipating.. and sure sometimes goals have to be tempered down in order to account for the reduced value of their investments and their failure to really establish a sufficiently large enough investment stash.

Sure it is possible that BTC never reaches gold parity, and maybe still you will not have been a failure in having had counted on BTC, but instead had a bit more modest of a bitcoin stash value than expected.  Maybe it would not be bad to consider a scenario (not saying that it is likely) in which BTC kind of tops off in the $100k-ish arena... that is still nearly a 10x appreciation from today's prices.. so wouldn't it still be possible to work with something like that? Even if it is more modest than expecting?

Overall, it seems that odds are pretty decent that BTC is going to meet and perhaps double gold's valuation in the coming 8 to 12 years, and maybe 16 years on the outside range of that.. and of course, none of those kinds of price performances are guaranteed, and you know that, too.

I personally do think that shaving off some profits on the way up could well be a good idea (even if you are feeling that you are too much in a kind of ongoing BTC accumulation stage)... especially experiencing a scenario of 5x to 6x in any time period that is less than 6 months would likely be a sign that a bit of shaving off profits may well be prudent.. even if that is only shaving off 5% or 10% of your stash.. but yeah, if you continue to shave off too much of your stash before you are really ready because you are betting on an upcoming BTC correction rather than being willing to leave those shavings behind, then there could end up developing a kind of cumulative effect that causes you to conclude that you had been selling way too much BTC too soon.  So in that scenario, if you were to shave some off, and then you shave off some more, then pretty soon you start to feel that your stash is quite shrunken, and you are then hoping the BTC price comes back down below your selling points in order that you can buy back.

Personally, without actually seeing your specifics, I am thinking that you have developed some fairly decent skills at projecting out various possible BTC price performance scenarios, so you should be able to project out a few different scenarios and be able to find some kinds of balances in order that you are going to feel comfortable with your chosen quantity of BTC sales under those various scenarios and you are NOT going to transform into a kind of desperation state because of selling too much BTC on the way up... If you are not able to project out those kinds of scenarios, then it would seem best to error on the side of selling lower quantities of BTC on the way up... presuming that we go UPpity, at some point.
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October 07, 2020, 03:57:06 AM
Merited by nutildah (2)

So easy to stop that bs. just stop fucking. no new customers demand decreases problem solved.

Woah woah woah... Lets not throw the bathwater out with the baby here. How about we just provide free contraception, birth control, and abortions instead?

Or at least make one of those stamp cards for abortion clinics... you know, buy 4 abortions and get the 5th for just one dollar.

bjs and muff jobs also work.  Wink
nullius
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October 07, 2020, 03:59:19 AM

That's OK, we'll live... Congress just can't give money to the people who need it without giving 1,000,000x as much to the wealthiest 1%; its impossible for them... that's just the way that it is. Meanwhile the price of everything has jumped at least 10% this year.  :-\  Another stimulus package would only drive up inflation all the more.

“Stimulus” is Orange Kerensky’s euphemism for what Leninists call “UBI”.

The difference is that Trump is a more cunning Communist.  He works like a drug pusher.  Once the American people get a few hits of “stimulus”, they will be hooked.  Moreover, this stratagem has the benefit that the “fiscally conservative Republicans” will not scream bloody murder—rather like how Obama could arbitrarily murder brown people overseas without the American left making much of a fuss.

Tell me, how many American retirees are not in a state of permanent financial dependency on Social Security, even amongst those with other sources of income?

(The question is rhetorical.  I’m not interested in any response.)




So easy to stop that bs. just stop fucking. no new customers demand decreases problem solved.

Or #gohomo.

I couldn’t help but notice that in some regional homosexual subcultures, “breeder” is a slang term for a heterosexual, with the pejorative tinge of a slur.

* nullius wants heirs.



So easy to stop that bs. just stop fucking. no new customers demand decreases problem solved.

Woah woah woah... Lets not throw the bathwater out with the baby here. How about we just provide free contraception, birth control, and abortions instead?

Or at least make one of those stamp cards for abortion clinics... you know, buy 4 abortions and get the 5th for just one dollar.

You, personally, are a disgusting degenerate.

Do you suitably inform females of that attitude of yours before you do anything that has any nonzero probability of causing pregnancy?  If you ever actually do such a thing...  I think that they have a right to know.  (For my part, I will not touch a woman with a ten-foot pole if she has that attitude.  Not even if she’s a supermodel.)

I wrote the above before I saw this, but it’s for you.  Do the world a favour.  Don’t stop fucking:  #gohomo.  And look into “bug-chasing”.  By way of postnatal abortion.



Reviewing all of the above, I think that it is high time for a technocratic conspiracy of robots to kill all humans.  Mercifully.
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October 07, 2020, 04:55:04 AM
Merited by strawbs (5), Last of the V8s (1)

The difference is that Trump is a more cunning Communist.  

Oh I get it now, you think everybody is a communist! Sure, we're all on a spectrum from Joe Stalin to Bernie Sanders when it comes down to brass tax (which should be increased BTW).

I couldn’t help but notice that in some regional homosexual subcultures, “breeder” is a slang term for a heterosexual, with the pejorative tinge of a slur.

Similar to how 'little people' will sometimes refer to non-little people as "reachers," as they depend on them to retrieve things placed on high shelves otherwise out of reach. As with all perjoratives, you can decide to find humor in it or to take it personally.

You, personally, are a disgusting degenerate.

Not sure how to take that. Is it meant to be a complement? Surely its not as bad as having a cybersex thread with a minor in the Off Topic section of the forum.

Do you suitably inform females of that attitude of yours before you do anything that has any nonzero probability of causing pregnancy?

Yes, and I make them sign a standard waiver as well. Out of curiosity, do you always refer to women as females? I heard they think that's, like, really hot.

If you ever actually do such a thing...

Can't say that I have. Heard about it though. As the first child born and raised on Antarctica, I grew up in isolation from the female specie, but thanks to my research on the internet I can now pinpoint their physical differences from males with great accuracy. It's a moot point though because my wedding tackle has been thoroughly frostbitten.

(For my part, I will not touch a woman with a ten-foot pole if she has that attitude.  Not even if she’s a supermodel.)

That's OK. Sometimes I get the feeling that's not a problem you have to worry about.  Cheesy
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October 07, 2020, 05:54:01 AM

Don't do that!
I know a lot of people that sold all their bitcoins at $100 and then at $1000 expecting a correction that never happened. Now they hate bitcoin.

Yeah, just as you predicted that I would sell mine @5k, and then hate BTC too.
That didn't age well, did it? Give the man a break, he seems to be aware of what's good for him.

That said, I don't like that Coinbase Visa at all. BTC is so much more than that.

Btw:
30/11/2013, BTC@$1163 >>> proper correction >>> 14/01/2015, BTC@$152 | Bitstamp
It never happened! Shocked



I think we're set - this week or the next.  If only r0achie would drop by and confirm.
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October 07, 2020, 06:21:50 AM

Don't do that!
I know a lot of people that sold all their bitcoins at $100 and then at $1000 expecting a correction that never happened. Now they hate bitcoin.

Yeah, just as you predicted that I would sell mine @5k, and then hate BTC too.
That didn't age well, did it? Give the man a break, he seems to be aware of what's good for him.

That said, I don't like that Coinbase Visa at all. BTC is so much more than that.

Btw:
30/11/2013, BTC@$1163 >>> proper correction >>> 14/01/2015, BTC@$152 | Bitstamp
It never happened! Shocked



I think we're set - this week or the next.  If only r0achie would drop by and confirm.

Using corrections to buy more bitcoins is good. Using corrections to buy back bitcoins you have sold is wrong! Once or twice you might be lucky but just one mistake and you'll never have the chance to buy back your bitcoins at the price you have sold. This is how altcoin bag holders are born!
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October 07, 2020, 06:54:32 AM

Using corrections to buy more bitcoins is good.

Agreed, getting rid of fiat, is a always good thing.

Using corrections to buy back bitcoins you have sold is wrong!

Why? Isn't that what you do? Part of your stack, not your whole position.

Once or twice you might be lucky but just one mistake and you'll never have the chance to buy back your bitcoins at the price you have sold.

I think you'll get lucky every 4 years. Or so it seems anyway - if you can filter out the crap.
Surely some people sold @$20k, $15k and $10k. Same people bought @$6k, $5k, $4k and $3k.

This is how altcoin bag holders are born!

Missed the point here, sorry. You're probably suggesting that they buy back altcoins to cover for some loss? What loss?
I'm only referring to BTC here, and don't give a flying fuck about any shitcoin. Buying alts is usually a big mistake. The trick is to don't get too greedy.
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October 07, 2020, 07:09:59 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

https://suredbits.com/schnorr-series-summary/

Last in this series, perhaps the easiest to grok for the less technical types. Great summaries of most of the new stuff coming to btc
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October 07, 2020, 07:25:31 AM


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October 07, 2020, 07:27:14 AM

https://youtu.be/rz_Z7Gf1aRE

Worth to hear
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October 07, 2020, 08:42:57 AM


Yes and no.
It would of course be ideal to achieve "herd immunity" but there are downsides of the procedure as well as the problem of mutation.
Like the flu, you can't actually get herd immunity, and it also does a lot of damage to the economy because of people lying sick at home, not able to work.
Herd immunity against the current circulating strains of SARS2, yes. Herd immunity forever? No. This comes at a price of taking out some % of global economic power, and it also has to be a global approach, because how could you explain country A to let people in from country B, who for example are currently herd immunizing, bringing in high infection/spreading rates? Just as a simple example of global covid complexity.

Covid is still seen too much as a national problem. It's in fact a global one, in a globalized economy, many people don't see this.
We'll have to swallow, either way. There seems to be no "best practice" for all of us.
I'm only replying to you because i think you're one of the sane members on board of the WO ship  Smiley
I'll back off the discussion as soon as polarization or covid-denial posts show up Roll Eyes
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October 07, 2020, 08:45:53 AM

Worth to hear, not an instant solution.... reasoning....
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October 07, 2020, 08:56:41 AM

@Jimbo I really hope everything will be ok for you! You did what was right, hopefully serious happens and no lives will be taken.

Talking strategy...
I guess we all have a point in which we would like to indulge in our deserved holding wealth. I always repeat to myself that it's a question of time. Take it like this: bitcoin is giving us time to prepare in advance for when the time is ripe. My 2 sats of course
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October 07, 2020, 09:39:09 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (3)


Yes and no.
It would of course be ideal to achieve "herd immunity" but there are downsides of the procedure as well as the problem of mutation.
Like the flu, you can't actually get herd immunity, and it also does a lot of damage to the economy because of people lying sick at home, not able to work.
Herd immunity against the current circulating strains of SARS2, yes. Herd immunity forever? No. This comes at a price of taking out some % of global economic power, and it also has to be a global approach, because how could you explain country A to let people in from country B, who for example are currently herd immunizing, bringing in high infection/spreading rates? Just as a simple example of global covid complexity.

Covid is still seen too much as a national problem. It's in fact a global one, in a globalized economy, many people don't see this.
We'll have to swallow, either way. There seems to be no "best practice" for all of us.
I'm only replying to you because i think you're one of the sane members on board of the WO ship  Smiley
I'll back off the discussion as soon as polarization or covid-denial posts show up Roll Eyes

Definitely yes. I watched the whole thing, so I'll just dismiss your post, doctor.

Btw, it's a political problem. World wide social & political problem. And I surely don't deny it, nor swallow.
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October 07, 2020, 10:23:46 AM
Merited by 600watt (1)

"If Bitcoin exists for 20 years, there will be near-universal confidence that it will be available forever, much as people believe the Internet is a permanent feature of the modern world."  @real_vijay

Only 9 to go, or maybe less.

https://twitter.com/hodloncomrades/status/1313634197995573250?s=21

https://medium.com/@vijayboyapati/the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-6ecc8bdecc1
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October 07, 2020, 10:24:50 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1), 600watt (1)

22% of all US Dollars were created in 2020
https://twitter.com/rulesofthetrade/status/1313328194636845058?s=21

Is this real?
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October 07, 2020, 10:30:16 AM
Last edit: October 07, 2020, 10:41:15 AM by OutOfMemory
Merited by Cryptotourist (3)


Yes and no.
It would of course be ideal to achieve "herd immunity" but there are downsides of the procedure as well as the problem of mutation.
Like the flu, you can't actually get herd immunity, and it also does a lot of damage to the economy because of people lying sick at home, not able to work.
Herd immunity against the current circulating strains of SARS2, yes. Herd immunity forever? No. This comes at a price of taking out some % of global economic power, and it also has to be a global approach, because how could you explain country A to let people in from country B, who for example are currently herd immunizing, bringing in high infection/spreading rates? Just as a simple example of global covid complexity.

Covid is still seen too much as a national problem. It's in fact a global one, in a globalized economy, many people don't see this.
We'll have to swallow, either way. There seems to be no "best practice" for all of us.
I'm only replying to you becausAe i think you're one of the sane members on board of the WO ship  Smiley
I'll back off the discussion as soon as polarization or covid-denial posts show up Roll Eyes

Definitely yes. I watched the whole thing, so I'll just dismiss your post, doctor.

Btw, it's a political problem. World wide social & political problem. And I surely don't deny it, nor swallow.

OK, sorry for that bad expression of swallowing #nohomo
We have to take cuts in some way. Cuts which secondary effects. It seems like these are quite ignored in most "solutions", generally.

And as politics are on the top of our "freedom", of course it's a political problem, also in the first place.

Worth to hear, not an instant solution.... reasoning....

Everybody taking a serious approach is worth to hear, correct.
There will be results, regardless of how the politics approach it. So i ask myself who is actually profiting by the one or other approach.
Virologists, Epidemiologists, Economists, Ecologists... Could they work together constructively, without political interference? I guess so, and it would likely be the "best" way.
And like CT wrote, it's the politics that would ignore them. If we weren't still so primitive in our very nature, we could probably well live together without those corrupt idiots on top that repeatedly ruin everything they put their hands on.
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October 07, 2020, 10:59:43 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

remember the last pump in July? it came out of nowhere. bitcoiners were bored to death, several months of sideways had erased all bullishness. the bullishness came back very very strong during that pump. if anyone posted that we would be stuck under $10600 in October, no one would have merited that.

August and September were sideways with a larger drop beginning of September. now everyone waits for the election. it is better to go sideways with some minor corrections for a longer time as if price would have unsustainably gotten too high (due to the July bullishness) too soon and print a double top on ath. 

if 2020 turns out to be only 25-30% gain in btc price it is not a catastrophe. year started around $7k.

if you want extraordinary gains you need to be extraordinary humble.

100k within 12 months? that is humble enough...  Cheesy
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October 07, 2020, 11:41:57 AM
Merited by Torque (2), Phil_S (2), Paashaas (1)

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