Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

early morning card readings

Math and science prove bitcoin cannot ever have an ATH again. I did the calculations and have been studying the best Chinese and Russian sources, just as I did so many years ago.

Seriously?  That is just way too pretty to fit my mental image of proudhon.

#dyor


1h


4h

#stronghands

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[soullyG]

short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets

It's not a "short-term correlation" so much as a new paradigm. Let me know when you understand the difference.

It started in feb as both the market and btc crashed hard.

It is fairly true for 2020.

Far less true prior to 2020.

Most  likely will not be true in 2021 or 2022.

Part of the reason if was not true prior to 2020 was it was too novel and too small. But this year a lot of  market money has bounced into btc as markets are besides theirselves with fears of a big crash.

It is still too small a cap under 300 bill not to delink from the market.

The real question is not if they are linked at the moment but when does btc pass the market and leave it behind.

+10 WO Merits

early morning card readings

#dyor

...

#stronghands

+20 WO Merits (always enjoy your posts Toxic)

[philipma1957]

It is not so much that charts are not good. They are incomplete.

It is not so much that my difficulty analysis along with gpu shit coin profit to asic btc profit is good or bad . It is in complete.

Using both are incomplete.  A major reason is any and all cryptocoins are still small market cap.

btc is 10400  x 18.5 mill in the grand scheme of wealth it is very small piece of wealth.

So price manipulation is easy to do.


I also suspect that like banks 🏦 most exchanges do not have all the wealth on hand.

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.

Still I am bullish for now and will be bullish both long and short term.

[Biodom]

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.

bank run= people taking their money out of the bank, bank stops functioning because they run on fractional reserve and don't have money there for everyone to take money out

exchange=should not run on fractional reserve, but even if it does, exchange simply closes (aka MtGox), screwing the participants

I don't see how this is a current drag on price, except a psychological blow (in case of MtGox).

BTW, people keep taking btc off of exchanges, so, maybe, all exchanges are ultimately doomed, apart from DEXes.
One can say that exchanges always need an influx of new users, otherwise experienced users will empty them (apart from price spikes when people deposit back).

[proudhon]

Adding to this analysis with confirmed math and science:

[Toxic2040]

+20 WO Merits (always enjoy your posts Toxic)

---------

It is not so much that charts are not good. They are incomplete.

It is not so much that my difficulty analysis along with gpu shit coin profit to asic btc profit is good or bad . It is in complete.

Using both are incomplete.  A major reason is any and all cryptocoins are still small market cap.

btc is 10400  x 18.5 mill in the grand scheme of wealth it is very small piece of wealth.

So price manipulation is easy to do.


I also suspect that like banks 🏦 most exchanges do not have all the wealth on hand.

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.

Still I am bullish for now and will be bullish both long and short term.

[cAPSLOCK]

Adding to this analysis with confirmed math and science:

Since we are entering the "Epoch of Unscience" I can confirm that this analysis of Analysis is moot.

[jojo69]

[soullyG]

[ivomm]

Adding to this analysis with confirmed math and science:

[d_eddie]

Contaminating your vital fluids, are they?

[JayJuanGee]

Maybe it's just newly printed brrrr money in HNWI pockets.

They mostly buy stocks with it, but maybe 1% gets converted into bitcoin.

"HNWIs are cautiously interested in holding cryptocurrencies: globally, only 29% of them show a high level of interest, while 26.9% say they are quite interested. The potential of cryptocurrencies, in terms of both investment returns and store of value, is acting as a driver of interest for HNWIs, especially among the youngest. In fact, 71.1% of those under the age of 40 attach great importance to receiving information on cryptocurrencies from the major asset management companies, compared to 13% of HNWIs over the age of 60. But when it comes to providing information on these types of instruments to HNWI clients, wealth management firms have been ambivalent, with only 34.6% of HNWIs globally claiming to have received such information from their wealth managers."

Are you a HNWI interested in Bitcoin? Ask your dedicated Wealth Manager! He will steal you juicy fees for letting you become a HODLer.
 

Data from https://www.capgemini.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Capgemini-World-Wealth-Report.pdf

NOT only is that report from mid-2018, so more than two years old and a lot of matters have been changing in the bitcoin/crypto space in two years, but also there may be a lot of gobbledy-gook contained therein, not only in terms of what kind of information some wealth manager might be willing to provide but also financial vehicles that they consider to be practical, and direct investing in bitcoin would probably not be one of the ways that they would recommend HNWI to be investing, even if it is a relatively small allocation such as 1% and would they even be going so bold as to even considering some kind of investment into bitcoin that would be so high as 10%, even though that could be a reasonable and prudent approach for some HNWI.

Another aspect is the cryptocurrency language that is used in the article, which causes me to wonder even if they understand the difference between bitcoin and shitcoins - which is largely a necessary angle of understanding in order to even be attempting to engage in long term investing rather than throwing darts kind of gambling.

On the other hand, there is probably some kind of point to the fact that more and more attention is getting paid to bitcoin and it is leaking to the HNWI - even though many of them are still likely receiving so much misinformation that the information that they are receiving is skewing their thoughts in such a way that they HNWI may at some point realize that they better engage in a bit of their own research rather than being limited and channeled by the supposed expertise of wealth managers, in which likely only a fraction of the wealth managers are providing realistic information, when it comes to what bitcoin actually is, how bitcoin is differentiated from shitcoins and also what place bitcoin and/or shitcoins might play in terms of the broader market, whether referring to the relation to gold and other PMs or stocks and bonds.

I hate to overly generalize, but it seems that likely the more reliant that HNWI are upon money/wealth managers, the more likely that regular peeps are going to be able to front run them in terms of getting into bitcoin before them.  Many of us who are active in this thread have already engaged in a decent amount of front running of such HNWI - and surely, little by little they are going to figure out that some combination of direct investing in BTC might be prudent, even though maybe a lot of them who might be connected to businesses or other traditional investment vehicle limitations might handicap themselves if they are totally reliant on having to go through those traditional investment vehicles that are still developing in the bitcoin space.... oh and some of them will end up getting distracted in some kind of hybrid combination of bitcoin and various shitcoins, which likely is not going to work out as well as buying bitcoin directly, so we surely are going to continue to see a learning process regarding the entrance of HNWI into this space that may frequently be through various investment vehicles that are touted by their wealth/money managers.

[philipma1957]

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.

bank run= people taking their money out of the bank, bank stops functioning because they run on fractional reserve and don't have money there for everyone to take money out

exchange=should not run on fractional reserve, but even if it does, exchange simply closes (aka MtGox), screwing the participants

I don't see how this is a current drag on price, except a psychological blow (in case of MtGox).

BTW, people keep taking btc off of exchanges, so, maybe, all exchanges are ultimately doomed, apart from DEXes.
One can say that exchanges always need an influx of new users, otherwise experienced users will empty them (apart from price spikes when people deposit back).

It is a tough call I certainly could be wrong.  But here goes nothing.

If I say my exchange has 100,000 btc on hand in real deposits it can allow for a shit ton of trading.

If a shit ton of trading is done with non existent  coins  the supply is falsely boosted.  If supply is 50,000 not 100,000.  Trading is easily 2x what it should be doing.  Since it is easy to do it creates the illusion that demand is easy to meet.

If all of the above is 'true' and exchanges are far short of what they say they have. The traders of the world are buy-ing easy coins due to falsely reported supply.

Since I have zero idea how true all of the above is in terms of true supply really on hand I am merely guessing that it is falsely reported at 2x or 3x the true circulating number of 6.5 mill.  Based on earlier post I did showing that 11 million coins have stayed in place over 1 year in a row.

[JayJuanGee]

short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets

It's not a "short-term correlation" so much as a new paradigm. Let me know when you understand the difference.

It started in feb as both the market and btc crashed hard.

It is fairly true for 2020.

Far less true prior to 2020.

Most  likely will not be true in 2021 or 2022.

Part of the reason if was not true prior to 2020 was it was too novel and too small. But this year a lot of  market money has bounced into btc as markets are besides theirselves with fears of a big crash.

It is still too small a cap under 300 bill not to delink from the market.

The real question is not if they are linked at the moment but when does btc pass the market and leave it behind.

BTC already has left the market behind.

The mere fact that you can draw short-term correlation between February 2020-ish to present, hardly means shit.

It's like cavemen looking at shadows in a cave trying to proclaim that they know what is going on outside the cave, when it would be much more informative to look outside the cave and determine directly what is going on rather than relying upon shadow interpretation (aka limited information).

[philipma1957]

+20 WO Merits (always enjoy your posts Toxic)

---------

It is not so much that charts are not good. They are incomplete.

It is not so much that my difficulty analysis along with gpu shit coin profit to asic btc profit is good or bad . It is in complete.

Using both are incomplete.  A major reason is any and all cryptocoins are still small market cap.

btc is 10400  x 18.5 mill in the grand scheme of wealth it is very small piece of wealth.

So price manipulation is easy to do.


I also suspect that like banks 🏦 most exchanges do not have all the wealth on hand.

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.

Still I am bullish for now and will be bullish both long and short term.

Charts will always be an incomplete predictive method for btc. As is my diff prediction and eth to btc mining ratios are incomplete.

combining both is helpful but are still incomplete predictive methods even when used together.

[nullius]

Charts will always be an incomplete predictive method for btc. As is my diff prediction and eth to btc mining ratios are incomplete.

combining both is helpful but are still incomplete predictive methods even when used together.

If there existed such a thing as a complete predictive method for financial markets (a.k.a. a “crystal ball”), and if you possessed it, then you would be using it to gain unbounded wealth—and you would not be posting about it on an Internet forum.

That sounds obvious.  But it bears noting, whereas too many people forget it—especially on the Internet...

(Other stuff to reply to, but no time.  Cheers & thanks for the reply.)

[Toxic2040]

mid morning haiku report

Shouting gentlemen.
Roaring giant, orange skys.
Land on fire, weeping.

6h




walls   #dyor






your jowls are flapping in the wind sir..do you require a towel?
12

#stronghands

[Cryptotourist]

Fully inspired, I got creative:



We care.

[Toxic2040]

Charts will always be an incomplete predictive method for btc. As is my diff prediction and eth to btc mining ratios are incomplete.

combining both is helpful but are still incomplete predictive methods even when used together.

[OutOfMemory]

Fully inspired, I got creative:



We care.

The left pipe should be rusty.