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Question: 1/31 Closing Price:
<$30,000 - 15 (28.3%)
$30,000-$31,000 - 2 (3.8%)
$31,000-$32,000 - 2 (3.8%)
$32,000-$33,000 - 8 (15.1%)
$33,000-$34,000 - 3 (5.7%)
$34,000-$35,000 - 0 (0%)
$35,000-$36,000 - 2 (3.8%)
$36,000-$37,000 - 3 (5.7%)
$37,000-$38,000 - 4 (7.5%)
$38,000-$39,000 - 0 (0%)
$39,000-$40,000 - 1 (1.9%)
>$40,000 - 13 (24.5%)
Total Voters: 53

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25075956 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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September 05, 2020, 12:17:26 AM

Whenever I refer to a random poster on this forum I use the the pronoun "they" rather than he or she.
(And yes "they" is grammatically correct for referring to the singular, or so I've heard.)
And not because of all this politically correct gender pronoun nonsense, but simply because  I dont automatically assume
the gender as being a "he" (albeit on this forum, that's usually the case).
I only mention this because in all this swaystar hullabaloo, (apparently triggered by a post of mine)
I was actually suspecting this sway character could be a she. (or not)

back in the day, as in way back in the day, when i learned english (in two different english speaking countries) i thought i learned that when a singular person of unknown sex was referred to "he" could refer to either sex.

however *main memory checksum error* so..
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JayJuanGee
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September 05, 2020, 12:19:27 AM

Route to $13,000 by the end of the month?

Wink
If i am being honest then i am Happy with around 15k EOY..

Portofolio goes down significantly every time even if we gets small correction, TBH it hurts when looking at blockfolio but its part of the deal so i don't mind. Am in for long haul anyway so i don't give any damn. Doing DCA religiously and as of now its working out pretty well for me. I might get panic if we go below 3k mark which is very unlikely.

Of course, if you have been attempting to carry out any kind of meaningful DCA'ing into BTC in the past 3 years, your BTC portfolio should be looking pretty good, even if you have screwed up a few times along the way, here and there.

This linked example shows $50 per week for the past 3 years, with 70% profits in BTC as compared with Gold and DJI only at 41% and 12%, respectively.

Of course, if you double the time period of DCA'ing into BTC to 6 years, a hypothetical DCA'ing investment will look even better with nearly 12x profits in BTC, and only 50% and 33% in Gold and DJI respectively.
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September 05, 2020, 12:48:11 AM

End of the WO thread if JJG can't find any post to reply, instead updating his own reply.....

O.k.  I admit it.

You caught me without my pants. Sucks to be me.

 Embarrassed



 Embarrassed
nullius
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September 05, 2020, 12:53:17 AM
Merited by JimboToronto (1)

(And yes "they" is grammatically correct for referring to the singular, or so I've heard.)

No, it is not correct—outside the fantasies of the Newspeak Dictionary, Tenth Edition (or is it the Eleventh now?).

I don’t want to feed more off-topic drama, much less engage in a “pronouns” flamewar at this particular moment.  This is just one of those issues where bad information stands, unless somebody contradicts it.  I will do so, for the promotion of singular “they” is a part of the linguistic degeneration that has rendered most of the Internet not only illiterate, but illegible; and it is politically motivated, however much you may disclaim “political correctness”.

I don’t want to come off as lecturing you about language usage.  I just ask you to please not lecture others on it—especially not to declare peremptorily correct a contentious usage that is widely abhorred.

I was actually suspecting this sway character could be a she. (or not)

Perhaps.  What of it?

I have engaged in similar speculations about others, but never corrected the pronouns applied to people who choose to keep this one binary bit of identifying information private.  On a forum that respects privacy and anonymity, I suggest that it is generally appropriate to avoid prying, unless you are friendly enough with a person to ask in private.  Simply pick whatever pronoun seems best to fit the available evidence, and stick to it unless contrary evidence arises.

(I have corrected others who decided to refer to me as a hipster default “she”.)



back in the day, as in way back in the day, when i learned english (in two different english speaking countries)

Back in the day—when people spoke English, in contradistinction to the bastardized postmodern cant used by degenerate anthropoids with pickled brains.

i thought i learned that when a singular person of unknown sex was referred to "he" could refer to either sex.

Yes.

Edit/P.S.:  “Back in the day”, women customarily signed their letters with a parenthesized title so that others would know whether to apply “Mrs.” or “Miss”.  E.g., “Sincerely, Alice Smith (Mrs.)”.  Just sayin’...
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September 05, 2020, 01:11:08 AM

End of the WO thread if JJG can't find any post to reply, instead updating his own reply.....

[terse post with picture]

End of the economy if JJG ran out of words!  Depression!  Collapse!  DOOMSDAY!

Embarrassed
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1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


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September 05, 2020, 01:11:11 AM
Merited by nutildah (1)

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https://bpip.org


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September 05, 2020, 01:31:10 AM

back in the day, as in way back in the day, when i learned english (in two different english speaking countries) i thought i learned that when a singular person of unknown sex was referred to "he" could refer to either sex.

however *main memory checksum error* so..

You must be older than me... When I was ESLing I was told to use "he or she" but apparently it's deprecated too now. Which TBH is fine with me. Never made much sense anyway, e.g. why not "she or he"? "They" is shorter and more convenient and anyone bitching about plural shalt read some Shakespeare.
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September 05, 2020, 01:39:56 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), nullius (2)

the laggards are chasing profits that don’t exist now.

A perverse kind of FOMO?

Anyhow, I remain quite biased in my preference for UP rather than DOWN... because even if I might be able to stack a few sats on the way down, it continues to be minuscule amounts of stacking as compared with how much of a benefit comes from purely straight UP.

I think that the bigger question is whether Bitcoin is really prepared for a black swan.  When fiat currencies and all of the other markets crash and burn, will people tend more to seek Bitcoin as a safehaven, or run away?  (To where!?  I don’t think that any traditional investments other than precious metals, and illiquid assets such as real estate, can hold value in such a scenario.)

Surely, you are asking a BIGGER question than what I was attempting to answer.

To a considerable degree, my whole approach in bitcoin has been built upon a presumption (or maybe even a hope) that ultimately BTC prices continue to go up in the long term, and we do not end up in some kind of downward spiral....

So sure one form of downward spiral would be going completely down to zero, and another forum of downward spiral would constitute BTC prices going so low that the investor (me in this case) does not have enough capital or time to continue to buy in such a way that his average cost per BTC ends up being less than the actual BTC price at the time that he (me in this case) would want to sell such BTC... therefore constituting a loss.

With so much passage of time, I really do not believe any of those two scenarios are probable, even though a kind of black swan event that you seem to be suggesting, nullius, would be some variation of such negative spiraling circumstances.


In April or thereabouts, I conjectured on WO that we may see extreme Bitcoin “prices” without gain in purchase power—not because of Bitcoin gaining, but the dollar (et al.) hemorrhaging value.  There is just no way that fiat currencies will not see extraordinary devaluation, given how much new currency has been created exactly at the moment of sharp decline in actual economic activity.  Official statistics on inflation are manipulated.  My “ground truth” is that I have seen sharp increases in the prices of elastic-demand goods within the past six months; but of course, whatever I see locally is a very limited view.  Has the recent $10–12k/BTC range simply reflected a decrease in the real-world purchase power of the dollar (as Bitcoin retained approximately the same value), or has it been caused by an increase in adoption, or has it been a speculative run?

Oh?  Now I see that you are describing such a black swan event as including the BTC prices going up, rather than down, and sure, I doubt that we really need to pinpoint exactly whether BTC prices are going up because BTC price is being appreciated and adopted more (normal supply and demand type price appreciations) or BTC prices are going up because fiat values are going down so much because of their irresponsible behaviors, inflation or whatever.

Sure, I agree with you that inflation is probably already noticeable, even if it might take longer for the Cantillon effect to play out in order to cause even more price inflation further down the line (further away from the money spigot).

By the way, a lot of us try NOT to get too much caught up on short term variability of BTC prices because even though matters sometimes can seem like they are moving quickly in bitcoin, there also seems to exist a kind of 4-year fractal pattern, too, so in that regard it could take 4 years or longer for some of the price waves in BTC to play out, so probably we cannot really know a whole hell-of-a-lot merely from witnessing some shorter-term correlations or even anti-correlations with fiat, gold, equities, properties or other assets.

Yeah, of course, there can be a lot of back and forth deviation from the price where bitcoin "ought to be" including there can be deviation with the stock to flow model, but in the end, the combination of various BTC price prediction models including the most convincing ones 1) stock to flow model, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles are going to likely tell us a lot more about where bitcoin is going or likely to go rather than looking at whatever various kinds of manipulations are taking place in traditional fiat systems.


(Skin in the game:  Yes, for my part, I am still “all in”—and consistently with the foregoing, I don’t see anywhere else to go.  When I am bearish on fiat currencies, and I expect the stock market, etc. to look like 1929–32 if not worse, and precious metals are susceptible to seizure by governments unless some way can be found to buy them anonymously, what can I do but HODL?)

Sure, of course, having a healthy allocation to bitcoin seems to be a prudent approach in these times, and of course, individual circumstances are going to vary too.   If you have a lot of expenses in fiat, such as business, family and even other kinds of payments that you are due, then you may well want to make sure that you have a sufficient savings/holdings in fiat to cover those expenses and a 6 to 18 month cashflow projection may well be prudent because no one should want to be forced to sell BTC that is NOT of a time of their own choosing merely because they had over-allocated in BTC, yet on the other hand, if your income and cashflow comes in BTC, then you are in a different kind of dynamic in which you might be forced to cash out some BTC on a regular basis, too.  So sure, individual cashflow situations and expenses are going to vary in terms of what kinds of levels of allocation into BTC would be prudent for their particular circumstances.
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September 05, 2020, 02:45:53 AM
Last edit: September 05, 2020, 03:19:08 AM by JayJuanGee

we will climb back to $11k soonish. and then it is decision time. we will either go through this barrier and all is good or we will get rejected. if we get rejected we will see 9k and in worst case 8k, but that is the very bearish case. I want to accumulate more, that is why I am even considering those scenarios..

King daddy does not give any shits if you want to accumulate more**



King daddy does not give any shits about what you are considering**



 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


Of course, even dips down to $6,600 are possible - but which scenarios are likely, when we have been confirmed to be in a potential bull market since May 2019...

but hey, some peeps don't even believe that we have been in a bull market since May 2019 - even though such bull market had already been "confirmed"


Go figure.


**Even though king daddy does not care about your desires or your thoughts, I do care.  #nohomo.    Tongue Tongue Tongue

Addendum

Wow.  After I drafted the foregoing, I checked proudhon’s trust page.

I wonder how many people have lost money over this.  I hope that most people ignore him.

There are not too many who actually consider proudhon seriously... He is kind of a reverse indicator.  You heard his song from April 2013, haven't you..   The you tube video link has been updated posted here a few times already. ... eg.. bitserve's below post:

~

How about you post the research paper on why Bitcoin can't go above 10k? Don't forget the sources.

He’s too busy enjoying all the wealth that he has gained by the magic of “strongly short with high leverage”.

Proudhon have been confirming scientifically proven sources since 2011. So yeah, he surely is too busy enjoying his wealth most of the time... except when he briefly passes by from to time to enlighten us with his OG wisdom.

Confirmed.

I love that song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw



Proudhon only shows up around the time that BTC prices are going to reverse, so perhaps humorous at best.

End of the WO thread if JJG can't find any post to reply, instead updating his own reply.....

[terse post with picture]

End of the economy if JJG ran out of words!  Depression!  Collapse!  DOOMSDAY!

Embarrassed

I will not proclaim to having any ability to live beyond the measurement of one being, similar to the rule against perpetuities, which remains an interesting concept...

In other words, at some point, hopefully not soon, the words of this particular being will have run their course.
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September 05, 2020, 03:28:47 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Thanks, Jay.  I learned from your reply, and picked up some new concepts to research.

Whilst I ponder that, I think that I should clarify a few points:

By the way, a lot of us try NOT to get too much caught up on short term variability of BTC prices

I must emphasize that apart from the pain of minimizing badly-timed expenditures, that is the perspective that informs my question!  When the bears are out in force, I usually ignore the market as much as I can.  Hereto, that has always worked out well:  “It’s down.  I don’t care.  It will be back up.”

If, however, the fundamentals of the market have changed—not Bitcoin’s own fundamentals, but the foundation of the whole economy—then I think it’s worthwhile to re-evaluate that stance in the context of the current situation.  Not from turning bearish on Bitcoin—to the contrary!  Panic and infectious negativity are bad; so is sticking one’s head in the sand.  Bitcoin has huge potential right now, but also faces dangers to which I should not blind myself.

I think that the current economic situation is unprecedented:  Never before have markets been so globally interdependent, and all based in total fiat currencies unbacked by anything whatsoever, and suddenly hit simultaneously, in numerous countries, with government policies that are tantamount to economic arson.  It is only rational to take a fresh look at what probable scenarios may come to pass, if the cycles and trends of the past eleven years wind up totally broken.

Oh?  Now I see that you are describing such a black swan event as including the BTC prices going up, rather than down, and sure, I doubt that we really need to pinpoint exactly whether BTC prices are going up because BTC price is being appreciated and adopted more (normal supply and demand type price appreciations) or BTC prices are going up because fiat values are going down so much because of their irresponsible behaviors, inflation or whatever.

Actually, I was eliciting a question mark:  Will we get an upward spiral, or a downward spiral?  I expect the upwards one.  Whereas I am admittedly biased, given that I am not only heavily invested in Bitcoin, but financially dependent on it.  In the absence of that crystal ball that so many people claim to have, I thought to ask around in WO, where the best regulars are much better informed about the markets than I am.

It seems that, at least at a first impression, you think I may not be wide of the mark in my expectation that fiat inflation should significantly drive up the dollars-to-bitcoins ratio due to the dollar’s fall, not Bitcoin’s rise—though of course, adoption can simultaneously push Bitcoin up further.  Well, I may have overshot when last I mentioned it in March; I hope so!

Sure, of course, having a healthy allocation to bitcoin seems to be a prudent approach in these times, and of course, individual circumstances are going to vary too.   If you have a lot of expenses in fiat, such as business, family and even other kinds of payments that you are due, then you may well want to make sure that you have a sufficient savings/holdings in fiat to cover those expenses and a 6 to 18 month cashflow projection may well be prudent because no one should want to be forced to sell BTC that is NOT of a time of their own choosing merely because they had over-allocated in BTC, yet on the other hand, if your income and cashflow comes in BTC, then you are in a different kind of dynamic in which you might be forced to cash out some BTC on a regular basis, too.  So sure, individual cashflow situations and expenses are going to vary in terms of what kinds of levels of allocation into BTC would be prudent for their particular circumstances.

Sound advice.  Speaking from hard experience.



End of the economy if JJG ran out of words!  Depression!  Collapse!  DOOMSDAY!

I will not proclaim to having any ability to live beyond the measurement of one being, similar to the rule against perpetuities, which remains an interesting concept...

In other words, at some point, hopefully not soon, the words of this particular being will have run their course.

And here I expected some technical analysis evaluating the stock-to-flow model of your words.  The rule against perpetuities is a more interesting take, however.  Do you suppose that in the absence thereof, you could will your distant descendants to continue producing your words in accord with your own present wishes?
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September 05, 2020, 05:30:45 AM
Merited by nullius (3)

Here's a quickie response (just kidding)


Thanks, Jay.  I learned from your reply, and picked up some new concepts to research.

Great.


Don't hesitate to come back at me, if your research turns up some things that seem contrary to what I was saying or even if you believe that there are good information sources out there to buttress some of the points in one direction or another.

Surely, I don't proclaim to explain some of the concepts as clearly as they might need to be explained.

Whilst I ponder that, I think that I should clarify a few points:

By the way, a lot of us try NOT to get too much caught up on short term variability of BTC prices

I must emphasize that apart from the pain of minimizing badly-timed expenditures, that is the perspective that informs my question!  When the bears are out in force, I usually ignore the market as much as I can.  Hereto, that has always worked out well:  “It’s down.  I don’t care.  It will be back up.”

I am pretty sure that you and I have gone over some of these concepts previously, and of course, I don't even mind repeating myself, because sometimes when we are posting in a public thread, other readers (or even active thread participants) can use this kind of conversation to attempt to fix their ways of balancing their BTC holdings along with a kind of inevitable BTC volatility that is not always UP and is hardly guaranteed in terms of either direction nor quantity of movement.

I understand that even forum members who have been around a long time might not have completely left their BTC accumulation stage, so the three stages of long term investing are accumulation, maintenance and then liquidation, and as I mentioned several times, I consider myself to largely be in a maintenance stage that is on the cusp of entering or employing more liquidation strategies in the coming years.

The accumulation stage remains amongst the most difficult and part of the reason is because sometimes accumulators have difficulties figuring out a balance that works for them in order to reach their goal, so if you have not come close to reaching fuck you status, you still may largely be accumulating BTC on a regular basis until either you reach fuck you status or you merely are at an age where liquidation is starting to seem practical.

So far, I am presuming that you have resolved some of the particular personalized questions around your BTC investment amounts and your accumulation target (your allocation percentage), and those would be your cash flow, your other investments, your view about bitcoin as compared with other investments, your risk tolerance, your timeline, and finally your skills, time and abilities to research and learn, and tweak your holdings or trade from time to time.

Accounting for all of the above personal variabilities, you arrive at some resolutions regarding how much allocation is your BTC target, so when I got into BTC my allocation target was to have BTC as 10% of my investment portfolio, but I ended up with close to 13%, and bitcoin price appreciation had caused BTC to become around 70% currently of my investment assets.

I hope that I am not being reckless by suggesting that my BTC allocation is 70% because my allocation came from BTC price appreciation, so the remainder of my investments are able to completely sustain me, even if BTC were to go to zero, but I am more than willing to just allow my winner (BTC) to continue to ride because there is not any stress on the rest of my various allocations.  I have largely NOT touched my BTC in terms of withdrawing any since I started in late 2013.. so I had been building my allocation in the first few years, and largely met my accumulation goal and just have been in a maintenance status since about early 2017 (if NOT earlier).

What I am trying to get at is that I personally believe it is ridiculous for people to over-allocate in BTC because they need to have their cashflow projected out, so many times, my finances had been a bit complicated, so for about the past 20 years, I have been accustomed to projecting out my cash flow for at least 18 months and sometimes even projecting out a bit further than that, using an Excel spreadsheet.

So, if you already have gotten past your conviction in BTC that you believe it is a good investment, then you have already come to a determination regarding how much of your cashflow that you would be willing to invest in BTC long term and even give up if BTC were to go to zero, and hopefully your timeline is at least 4 years minimum and if your timeline is longer then that is even better.. 10 years or longer is good, because there is no get rich quick, even if with bitcoin you may well be able to get rich quicker than you would have with traditional assets, so long as you play your cards correctly.

By the way, when I got into BTC in 2013, I had already been investing around 25 years in various traditional assets, and I had already established a pretty decently sized investment portfolio, so moving 10-13% into bitcoin was a decent chunk of already established profits in various investments and appreciation of investments over those 25 years.

So having an investment timeline of 4-10 years or even 30 years is not unreasonable, even though it seems to me that with bitcoin there are ways that they investment timeline can still end up cutting much shorter than what i had to do in order to build the size of my investment portfolio... so maybe with bitcoin the portfolio size can reach high levels in a stable way that I had not been able to accomplish with traditional investments (and of course, still no guarantees with any of this, either).

In other words, if you do not invest more than you can afford to lose, then you do not worry about what the bears are saying or what they are doing and what the short term movements of the BTC price are.

Hopefully, you are dollar cost averaging and buying on dips until you reach your accumulation target, then you you reach your accumullation target, they you may go more into a maintenance stage which might involve shaving some profits when the BTC price goes up and using those proceeds to buy back BTC, but if you have not reached your BTC target, then you might not be able to afford to sell any BTC because you ONLY remain in a DCA of BTC on a regular basis, buy on dip and HODL strategy, until you happen to reach such accumulation target.

So really difficult to say for you, nullius, if I am not really knowing if you have reached your accumulation strategy yet and if you have your fiat cashflow sufficiently projected out on a long enough timeline.. that you are NOT going to get into any kind of cashflow pickle.
 


If, however, the fundamentals of the market have changed—not Bitcoin’s own fundamentals, but the foundation of the whole economy—then I think it’s worthwhile to re-evaluate that stance in the context of the current situation.  Not from turning bearish on Bitcoin—to the contrary!  Panic and infectious negativity are bad; so is sticking one’s head in the sand.  Bitcoin has huge potential right now, but also faces dangers to which I should not blind myself.

I am having a hard time considering how our current macro circumstances should cause any kind of significant change to the whole concept of making sure that your shit is in order and figuring out a BTC accumulation target.

Maybe we can attempt to use a hypothetical, here?  Let's say that you have $100k invested in various assets.

You have $35k in stocks, $15k in bonds, $25k in property, $5k in gold/silver, $12.5k in bitcoin, $7.5k in cash.  That would be 12.5% in bitcoin.

Are you saying that you want to move everything to bitcoin because you have lost confidence in those various other investments based on the latest and greatest in macro economic dynamics that have caused you to lose confidence in various traditional investments?


Personally, part of the reason that I did not change the allocations of some of my traditional investments was because they were in 401ks, so they were continuing to be tax deferred and then part of my investments were a pain in the ass to move (so not very liquid), so when I got into bitcoin, largely I move my value or increase my bitcoin allocation by just adding to what I had in bitcoin until I reached my 10% to 13% target.

So, if you are sufficiently, liquid in terms of those other assets, sure it is possible for you to just merge more and more of them into bitcoin to end up having higher allocations in bitcoin, and maybe you would end up having higher allocations in cash, too because you end up wanting to have some of the cash available in order to have strategies to DCA and buy on the dip, and various other ways to attempt to take advantage of BTC volatility.  

So maybe one year later, you position might end up looking more like this:

$12.5k in stocks, $2.5k in bonds, $5k in property, $7.5k in gold/silver, $57.5k in bitcoin, $15k in cash.  That would be 57.5% in bitcoin.

In the end, you are the one who has to decide both how to make your allocations or to make adjustments to your allocations in order to feel comfortable with whatever are your choices, including if you believe macro circumstances have sufficiently changed in order to cause drastic reallocations in your various holdings.

By the way, frequently, we are speaking to the situation of people who need to get off zero in terms of their bitcoin, and people who want to get rich quick, so some of those people might be either be reluctant to invest anything into bitcoin, and frequently we might be telling them that they do not have to place high allocations in bitcoin in order to profit stupendously from bitcoin, especially if bitcoin ends up going up crazily, you may not even need to have a lot in bitcoin and it ends up becoming a high percentage of your holdings because if your scenario plays out in terms of the bullish bitcoin scenario, then your traditional assets may have stayed
about the same value but bitcoin goes shooting up.  

A problem of over allocating your value into bitcoin is that if your investment thesis in regards to a bullish bitcoin does not end up playing out, then you end up being screwed because you did not have value allocated in those other possible scenarios...  .. which ends up being a kind of gambling rather than investing, from my perspective, and I don't really believe in gambling when it comes to significant portions of my investment portfolio.



I think that the current economic situation is unprecedented:  Never before have markets been so globally interdependent, and all based in total fiat currencies unbacked by anything whatsoever, and suddenly hit simultaneously, in numerous countries, with government policies that are tantamount to economic arson.  It is only rational to take a fresh look at what probable scenarios may come to pass, if the cycles and trends of the past eleven years wind up totally broken.

I still do not believe that you need to over allocate in bitcoin in order to profit stupendously from your doom and gloom scenario playing out... so even if you are correct about the doom and gloom scenario, if you merely have a decent investment in BTC, your BTC will greatly outperform the remainder of your holdings, so you will still be rich either way, so long as you have some bitcoin without having to devote more than 50% of your current holdings to BTC, and you can even stick with a more modest holdings, even 10% to 20% (of course, depending on the totality of your personal circumstances that only you can specifically assess - not that you want to share all of your information on a public BTC thread - though we could talk in terms of percentages of a hypothetical person, too).


Oh?  Now I see that you are describing such a black swan event as including the BTC prices going up, rather than down, and sure, I doubt that we really need to pinpoint exactly whether BTC prices are going up because BTC price is being appreciated and adopted more (normal supply and demand type price appreciations) or BTC prices are going up because fiat values are going down so much because of their irresponsible behaviors, inflation or whatever.

Actually, I was eliciting a question mark:  Will we get an upward spiral, or a downward spiral?  I expect the upwards one.  Whereas I am admittedly biased, given that I am not only heavily invested in Bitcoin, but financially dependent on it.  

Well, isn't that the million dollar question about whether you are too much allocated into bitcoin and you are potentially not adequately prepared for other possible scenarios?


In the absence of that crystal ball that so many people claim to have, I thought to ask around in WO, where the best regulars are much better informed about the markets than I am.

My goal tends to be that if BTC is performing at least 6% per year on average, then it is outperforming the average returns of my traditional investments.  So, personally, I never have a high goal in terms of my expectations in regards to bitcoin.  My first few years investing in BTC, I did not get my average of 6% per year because I was in the negative, and since late 2016, my investment largely started to meet and exceed my 6% per year expectations.. so even from here, when we are bouncing around at supra $10k, I still remain happy with 6% per year, but I also have a bit of a cushion, too... so I am cheating to some degree.


It seems that, at least at a first impression, you think I may not be wide of the mark in my expectation that fiat inflation should significantly drive up the dollars-to-bitcoins ratio due to the dollar’s fall, not Bitcoin’s rise—though of course, adoption can simultaneously push Bitcoin up further.  Well, I may have overshot when last I mentioned it in March; I hope so!

Well, you March 18 post came right after we experienced the March 12 dip down to $3,850, so we were bouncing in the $6k price arena on that particular day.

Of course, many of us realize that inflation is frequently understated, especially since our basket of goods might even vary from what the govt is supposedly measuring when it says that the dollar  is only inflating at 2% per year, and many of us know better than that.

So, if matters really go to shit, in terms of the dollar, then instead of me expecting my BTC to appreciate by 6% per year to merely keep up with the previous performance of my earlier traditional investments, I might be better off having higher expectations for my BTC to appreciate by more than that in order to account for the devaluation of the dollar... Maybe double it to 12%?  or maybe just add 50% to it, such as 9%?  I can play around with my numbers in order to help to keep myself realistic (and not deluded) about what might be happening in the real world, too.


Sure, of course, having a healthy allocation to bitcoin seems to be a prudent approach in these times, and of course, individual circumstances are going to vary too.   If you have a lot of expenses in fiat, such as business, family and even other kinds of payments that you are due, then you may well want to make sure that you have a sufficient savings/holdings in fiat to cover those expenses and a 6 to 18 month cashflow projection may well be prudent because no one should want to be forced to sell BTC that is NOT of a time of their own choosing merely because they had over-allocated in BTC, yet on the other hand, if your income and cashflow comes in BTC, then you are in a different kind of dynamic in which you might be forced to cash out some BTC on a regular basis, too.  So sure, individual cashflow situations and expenses are going to vary in terms of what kinds of levels of allocation into BTC would be prudent for their particular circumstances.

Sound advice.  Speaking from hard experience.

We frequently find guys getting themselves into a pickle because they had not adequately accounted for their cashflow, and then some kind of emergency comes up (emergencies are always going to come up, especially if BTC price crashes, then more likely some other emergency is going to come up), so they end up having to sell some or all of their BTC stash because they need to deal with the emergency or they are afraid that they do not have enough cash to deal with the emergency.  Of course, they are going to buy back later, but when they end up selling at $4,500, and then the BTC price goes up to $7k or more, they spend too much time waiting for the BTC price to come back down, and it does not come back down and they had not adequately prepared for their emergency situation... because they had to sell their BTC at a time that really was not of their own choosing.  It happens quite a bit, and many guys will not admit it.

Even when I project out my cashflow 18 months or more, sometimes, I do have moments in which my cashflow is not adding up very balanced in the positive, and some rebalancing has to be done in order to make sure that there is enough balance to cover all expenses, and surely the more kinds of investments that you have does also help in choosing from which of the investments to draw in terms of resolving short term cashflow shortcomings that arise from time to time and perhaps more frequently when there are more complexities in the expenses and sometimes more cushion needs to be kept in the accounts when there are more complexities too... so instead of having an ongoing $500 cushion (no matter what at low points in the cycle), the cushion might need to be $1,500 or even $2k at low points in the cycle.  



End of the economy if JJG ran out of words!  Depression!  Collapse!  DOOMSDAY!

I will not proclaim to having any ability to live beyond the measurement of one being, similar to the rule against perpetuities, which remains an interesting concept...

In other words, at some point, hopefully not soon, the words of this particular being will have run their course.

And here I expected some technical analysis evaluating the stock-to-flow model of your words.  The rule against perpetuities is a more interesting take, however.  Do you suppose that in the absence thereof, you could will your distant descendants to continue producing your words in accord with your own present wishes?

Those can be complex instruments, and you know how the terms of a will could be measured in terms of a life in being.. in this case, I would be the life in being rather than the terms.  If that makes any sense?  in other words,  so when the "life in being" (myself in this hypothetical) is not longer ready, willing or able to spout out words, then likely it is no longer a life in being.   Tongue Tongue   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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September 05, 2020, 05:45:32 AM
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Better late than never, though, no?   Cry Cry Cry

No, better on time.
You left us with our dicks swaying loose out there yesterday J.
Instead of wrapping it up by page 3. Where is a wall of text when you need one?

Welp!
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September 05, 2020, 05:54:43 AM

Better late than never, though, no?   Cry Cry Cry

No, better on time.
You left us with our dicks swaying loose out there yesterday J.
Instead of wrapping it up by page 3. Where is a wall of text when you need one?

Welp!

I will work harder!

Cryptotourist is always right.


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September 05, 2020, 06:15:51 AM

Wow JJG! Maybe you slept too much lately! You came back rather prolific!  Grin

Price side, I see again green on my Bitcoin ticker widget app, that's enough of a good morning. Need to pick a day to buy some corn in September for my DCA long term strategy. I welcome suggestions.

Last part on merits:
fuck merits.
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September 05, 2020, 06:27:16 AM
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Wow JJG! Maybe you slept too much lately! You came back rather prolific!  Grin

Price side, I see again green on my Bitcoin ticker widget app, that's enough of a good morning. Need to pick a day to buy some corn in September for my DCA long term strategy. I welcome suggestions.

Last part on merits:
fuck merits.

Divide your DCA allowance into 4 parts.

Buy 1/4 right away.

Thereafter, buy 1/4 each of the next three weeks.

Does that not help?
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September 05, 2020, 06:56:29 AM
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Cryptotourist is always right.

Well thank you, but no.
For reference, I'm not a God, but merely a mutant demigawd.

Already love your update though, so keep it up. Cool
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September 05, 2020, 07:28:14 AM
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I see again green on my Bitcoin ticker widget app

I'm not embarrassed to admit, that I have multiple ticker systems around the house constantly displaying the last 24 hour price.

Most of them are run just showing bitcoinity.org last 24 hours in Chromium, on RasPi's with small touch-screen displays.

Our bedroom has two systems on my bedside, where we can wake up, look over at the price of corn, and go right back to sleep.

One of the tickers is a mini PC running Windows 10 connected to a HP touchscreen display showing bitcoinity.com last 24 hours, and another is a RasPi4 with a slightly smaller display, showing the last 3 days of bitcoinwisdom.io.

Also have the BTC price showing on the face of my watch.

Yeah, Rick and I are huge nerds.
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September 05, 2020, 07:33:20 AM
Merited by gentlemand (2), El duderino_ (2), LFC_Bitcoin (1), 600watt (1), Last of the V8s (1), JSRAW (1)

Okay fellas, didn't wanted to share this in the inter web but I am drunk irl for the first time in my life (Sorry LFC Cheesy )and emotions kicking in.. so sharing with you guys some good news.

Somehow i feel that i am youngest fella in WO and i kinda admire some of you, to name a few love birds JJG, v8, Bob, Vap, Jo, Nutella. so letting you fuckers know that i am going to become daddy soon. Me and my partner didn't drop this nuclear bomb to our families for obvious reason, regulars might know why? but sharing here anyways because...... ...mhmm.

Congrats dude.

as much of my life has disappeared down the toilet lately, 1 way and another, I have just received so much love from my 2 young boys.

In fact some of the worst times have also been the best.

I have seen them daily and interacted with them and done things I never had the time to do because commuting and office and so on.

They both come in my room in the morning give me a big cuddle and we face the day together.

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September 05, 2020, 07:39:47 AM

trader that he could turn .05 BTC into 1 BTC[/url]

0.005 btc*

It was some dust I had on a spare account, i decided to make it a challenge because why not

causing him to get a considerable amount of backlash in this thread and in his other thread, because he was overpromising, underdelivering and not even coming close to achieving his BTC price prediction goals or acknowledging the various fallacies of his ways that had considerably good chances to mislead others..
Risk management allows me to be right only 33% of the time and still breakeven, in the post which you linked i had a more than 33% success rate, even if i told you every single trade i was gonna take theres obviously going to be nuances to every different persons trading strategies, which i wouldnt be able to explain to you, such as deciding not to take a trade due to change of context

furthermore not even acknowledging that he had pretty much lost all of his money in a pretty short time.
I dont know where this is coming from,before the end of the challenge I was only trading with 100 contracts per trade, which is not alot at all, and then as i said before locking the thread, i was busy with personal reasons so i stopped updating the thread and trading with the challenge account
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September 05, 2020, 08:14:36 AM

I see again green on my Bitcoin ticker widget app

I'm not embarrassed to admit, that I have multiple ticker systems around the house constantly displaying the last 24 hour price.

Most of them are run just showing bitcoinity.org last 24 hours in Chromium, on RasPi's with small touch-screen displays.

Our bedroom has two systems on my bedside, where we can wake up, look over at the price of corn, and go right back to sleep.

One of the tickers is a mini PC running Windows 10 connected to a HP touchscreen display showing bitcoinity.com last 24 hours, and another is a RasPi4 with a slightly smaller display, showing the last 3 days of bitcoinwisdom.io.

Also have the BTC price showing on the face of my watch.

Yeah, Rick and I are huge nerds.

I love this so much
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