So, for example, if the payoff for betting correctly is 5%, but the loss of betting incorrectly is 1%, but the odds of getting the 5% is 2/5 because the trader has good predictive skills and is able to hit with that level of precision, then surely if the trader has assessed the odds correctly, then largely in the long term for every 5 times that the trader plays those odds, s/he will get 5% twice, and s/he will lose 1% three times, which seems to be decent profits of somewhere in the ballpark of 7% from those 5 trades.
Jay, let’s take this as scientific gambling: Pop those numbers into the Kelly criterion!
If I believed that SwayStar could reliably gain 5% on even close to 40/60 odds
(acknowledging that that’s just your off-the-cuff example probability, not what she claimed) versus 1% losses, then I would practically beg her to let me send her
all of my money right now, on agreement to let her keep half the profit (or hell, even most of it) as a management fee—
just keep hitting those trades! Because I would get rich quick that way.
Really, do a little back-of-the-envelope calculation. Geometric growth (what Kelly addresses) is funny. “Turn 0.005 BTC into 1 BTC” kind of funny, and more.
Of course, I’m not exactly doing that. Just call me a skeptic.
If the trader realistically assess the odds of a price move - yeah, sure a BIG "if" because frequently the assignment of odds is not very accurate, [...]
Yeah, I understand that the odds are never going to be that clear to assess, so in that regard, the devil is in the details, because usually the odds are not going to be so easy to figure out.
Yeah... about that...
Also, some traders roll their profits into their trading stash, and other traders will take some profits off the table on a regular basis in order to use for living expenses or just to stack away some of their profits.
If you could be certain of the odds, and if the odds are EV+, Kelly bets that roll profits back into the pot are, of course, mathematically optimal for growth in the sense of “I no longer care what the market does, because my portfolio already went to the moon”. Confirmed science, lulz. (Hey, there’s that “IF” again.)
p.s. find it weird how paashaas posted the chart here without any credit and basically even copied the text, is this considered plagiarism then?
I do personally believe that there are several members who should work on making sure that they are giving proper attributions in terms of making sure that the words ideas of someone else are not appearing to be being claimed as their own.
There is certainly a difference between plagiarism and improper attribution. I could quote some academic integrity discussions on that, but then, you know, I’d need to attribute them, and I am just too lazy for that right now.
Protip: We
(the royal we, of course) use universal time in these here parts.
UTC is the Internet anonymity time zone.
I just think its really cool lmao, im not part of the development team, i might help them a bit with marketing tho,
Check out RGB/Spectrum. It’s still in the relatively early stages, but seems to have competent people involved; and IIUC, it’s being backed somehow (?) by Tether people. (I would guess that somebody is probably sick and tired of running on a network cries out in pain from the load of all the USDT flying around.)
Our sordid affair is ongoing, so please stay tuned, and you will be
perswayded. 
I think that I already am. Did you hear? SwayStar is going to make me
rich!
I did a double-take when I saw Sr. with 500 merits due to slow server update. Nice move.
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