[1500 TH] p2pool: Decentralized, DoS-resistant, Hop-Proof pool

[kjj]

So, roughly half of the time, you will have an active share, and half the time you won't.

As I understand it, there are other possibilities: some of the time you'll have more than one active share, and some of the time you'll solve the block. Is this correct?

Yes.  Some fraction of the time you will have 2, 3, 4,... active shares, but for a smaller miner, 0 and 1 will be vastly dominant, with 2 as a novelty, 3 as a rarity, etc.  At any rate, the sum of the series is 1/2 in the example.

OK. Now let's continue to say your mining rigs have a hash rate good for 0.5 BTC per day. Let's say you normally use 1/5 of that hashing power mining with P2Pool, and the other 4/5 solo mining. Then, whenever you gain an active share, you dedicate 100% of your hashing power to trying to solve the block.

Do you see how this will get you more than 0.5 BTC per day, if all other things are equal?

Take 30 days again.  We'll consider your farm as 5 units with an expected earning of 0.1 BTC per day each.

If you were fully on p2pool, you'd earn 30 days * 5 units * 0.1 per unit = 15 shares = 15 BTC. - this takes 30*5=150 unit/days

With your system:
Always on p2pool: 30 days * 0.1 per unit * 1 unit = 3 shares from your dedicated p2pool boxes = 3 BTC - this takes 30*1=30 unit/days
Because you have 3 shares, your other boxes will spend 3 days working on p2pool:  3 days * 0.1 per unit * 4 units = 1.2 shares = 1.2 BTC - this takes 3 * 4 = 12 unit/days
This leaves 108 unit/days, each of which is worth 0.1 BTC, for a total earning on the other pool of 10.8 BTC
Add them all up, and you get 15 BTC.

In reality, the second number would be a little lower, because the other pool probably charges more in fees than what you are donating for p2pool.

Is any of this making sense?  If you had exactly the right hash rate to find a new share (on average) right as your previous share was rolling off, so that you had exactly one share in the chain at a time, you'd earn X per block.  If you have half that hash rate, you still earn X per block, but you do so half as often because you only have an active share half of the time.  In reality, X isn't so constant, but it still works out to earning exactly the right amount, over time.

p2pool does not cheat small miners.

[1715033996]

1715033996

[1715033996]

1715033996

[1715033996]

1715033996

[1715033996]

1715033996

[1715033996]

1715033996

[jedimstr]

Having miners on Elizium or some other node doesn't change the fact that my 120GHs makes me a small fry that won't get any reward anymore on p2pool.

You are absolutely, positively 100% dead wrong about this.  You still get exactly the same reward that you "should" be getting.  See any of my last few posts in this thread.

Ok I'm wrong.  And my wallet is lying to me.  And I didn't use those coins that I DIDNT get from p2pool to pay for daycare.  Sure whatever

You can tell me I'm wrong till you're blue in the face.  Fact is over the last few weeks the pittance of power I threw at BTC guild earned me a magnitude more than the majority of firepower I threw at P2pool.  I USED and Traded this BTC already so go ahead and huff and puff all you want it doesn't change FACT and Evidence at hand for me.  

What part of "over time" and "in the long run" do you not understand?  Did you miss the part where I'm running a third of the power that you are running?

I don't really care about you, but I'm not a big fan of you spreading lies in here.  P2pool does NOT cheat people with low hashrates.

I guess if you really need that $7 each day for daycare, it may make sense for you to mine somewhere where you can get the steady payout.  But you would earn more over time on p2pool.

I don't think anyone is contending that p2pool is cheating anyone.

The point is that difficulty increases every 10-14 days, and a share a week from now may not be worth the same as a share now.  Share variance is just too big for small miners now on p2pool.

The argument that you will make the same over time is kinda true and kinda not.  You could just as well make the argument that you will make the same solo mining as you will in a pool - but it's not really true because difficulty isn't static.  If you get paid for your shares NOW, at a rate set by current difficulty, you will make more BTC - unless you are very lucky.

It's you who haven't been reading.  How many times must I say I was on p2pool for months and months. How long is "over time"? Will I see an odd payment in 15 years perhaps?  

Btw while I wasn't earning anything on p2pool for the last week or so, I paid my $250 daycare per week bill with earnings from BTCGuild over the previous 2 weeks and some extra that's been sitting in my wallet.  Again I was a big proponent of p2pool for a long time.  But, now difficulty has hit the threshold where I will always make more on BTCGuild with less power on it than I do at p2pool.  I'm sorry to let my node go but that's how the payouts ended up.

[BG4]

With the share difficulty bouncing between 450000 - 500000 lately, and with the local luck the last few days, I've been having problems getting a share within the 24 hour window needed to keep payouts above 0.  I've got 20+Ghs going and I used to get 0.025 per block a few weeks ago, but now I'm struggling for the past week to get 0.005 per block and it has mostly been 0 even with 7 shares and 120% efficiency during the last week.  So even if luck for Blocks has been great over the last week, the share count has made running my local P2Pool node insolvent.  Anyone else seeing the same?

It's stuff like this more than a pretty interface or easy setup that will push people like me to go back to centralized pools.  So for now, until I can grab more horsepower and try again (I have 100+Ghs worth of Drillbit Bitfury boards waiting for repair), I'm bowing out of P2Pool and going back to BTC Guild.  Love the concept and it was going great for awhile, but it looks like only the big boys can play in the P2Pool anymore.

I have to agree.....High Share difficulty will cut small miners out of the picture.....Not because of MATH and odds and probability..but because its not FUN anymore......

[lenny_]

Quick glance at stats:

Code:

Pool rate: 95.5TH/s (16% DOA+orphan) Share difficulty: 411000

Node uptime: 1.5 days Peers: 10 out, 11 in

Local rate: 322MH/s (0.0% DOA) Expected time to share: 63.5 days

As you see, p2pool is not good for small miners anymore. Even with 30 GH/s, you getting share once in 17 hours, variance can make this value 5x smaller or bigger, and you may miss the blocks.

Right now, we have modification in p2pool share diff calculating algorithm:
If address (miner) have more than 1.67% of p2pool hashrate, increase his node's share diff, so he will find shares less likely

1.67% corresponding to ~1.4 TH/s. I check p2pool.info stats and we have about 11 miners with hashrate above that. Biggest one have almost 15TH/s, which is ~18% of p2pool hashrate.

Couple of weeks ago, when commit has been made by forrestv to modify that limit to 1.67%, it was fine - 1.67% was equivalent of about 400-500 GH/s, right now it's 3x higher.

I am suggesting to change this behaviour to formula:

* If address (miner) is finding shares in less than 60 minutes, increase his node share diff so he will find share in exactly 60 minutes

This will be independent from current pool hashrate, last implementation (percentage of pool hashrate) doesn't work anymore with such big miners we have there now.

Avg. of 24 beefy shares per day will be enough even for largest miners, they shouldn't complain about variance, as their sacrifice will enable small miners to mine again on p2pool, total pool hashrate will increase, so total variance for pool will decrease (profit for all miners).

What you guys think?

[IYFTech]

I think I get it. Sounds OK to my non tech head anyway - at least it's a start.....

[twmz]

How many times must I say I was on p2pool for months and months. How long is "over time"?

I would go with "over time" = at least 100 times whatever your expected time to find a share is.

[twmz]

As you see, p2pool is not good for small miners anymore.

p2pool have never been good for small miners.  All that has changed is how much hashrate qualifies as a "small miner".  Bitcoin difficulty has increased 1000x in the last 18 months.  Today's 10 GH/s miner is just as screwed as a 10 MH/s miner from 18 months ago.

[kjj]

But, now difficulty has hit the threshold where I will always make more on BTCGuild with less power on it than I do at p2pool.

There is no such threshold.  Well, there might be one down in the 0-10 megahash range with the CPUs where the expected number of shares earned between now and infinity is less than a half.  But 20 Ghash/sec is nowhere near that.  Once again, I'm mining with about 7 Ghash/sec, and while I see plenty of variance, sometimes going 4 or 5 days without a payout, I still get paid, and my running averages are hovering rather close to my ideal expected payout.  (I'm actually up a fair bit right now because I had shares active during the very recent string of crazy good luck, including that block with the 20 BTC fee.)

[jedimstr]

But, now difficulty has hit the threshold where I will always make more on BTCGuild with less power on it than I do at p2pool.

There is no such threshold.  Well, there might be one down in the 0-10 megahash range with the CPUs where the expected number of shares earned between now and infinity is less than a half.  But 20 Ghash/sec is nowhere near that.  Once again, I'm mining with about 7 Ghash/sec, and while I see plenty of variance, sometimes going 4 or 5 days without a payout, I still get paid, and my running averages are hovering rather close to my ideal expected payout.  (I'm actually up a fair bit right now because I had shares active during the very recent string of crazy good luck, including that block with the 20 BTC fee.)

Well goody for you... you seem to be the only one... read all the posts above yours and you'll see what the threshold is.  Glad you're getting something.  I was not... so for me the decision was easy since I already had some test miners on other pools types that made more with less power over the course of months.

Good luck.  Hope you keep getting lucky.

[maqifrnswa]

But, now difficulty has hit the threshold where I will always make more on BTCGuild with less power on it than I do at p2pool.

There is no such threshold.  Well, there might be one down in the 0-10 megahash range with the CPUs where the expected number of shares earned between now and infinity is less than a half.  But 20 Ghash/sec is nowhere near that.  Once again, I'm mining with about 7 Ghash/sec, and while I see plenty of variance, sometimes going 4 or 5 days without a payout, I still get paid, and my running averages are hovering rather close to my ideal expected payout.  (I'm actually up a fair bit right now because I had shares active during the very recent string of crazy good luck, including that block with the 20 BTC fee.)

Well goody for you... you seem to be the only one... read all the posts above yours and you'll see what the threshold is.  Glad you're getting something.  I was not... so for me the decision was easy since I already had some test miners on other pools types that made more with less power over the course of months.

Good luck.  Hope you keep getting lucky.

I solo mined and found a block in 30 minutes. Over the same time I only earned 0.000002 BTC on BTCGuild. Solo mining is WAY better than any pool! You get paid SO MUCH more solo mining.

that is the logical equivalent of what you're saying. kjj is right, there is no threshold. The only threshold is how much variance is worth to you. When you cross that threshold, like you found, it is no longer fun to mine on p2pool. It's ok, p2pool has high variance for small miners - and to many/most it is not worth it. I'm a huge fan of p2pool, but I stopped since my personal value of variance is exceeding my interest in p2pool

[Schleicher]

I would go with "over time" = at least 100 times whatever your expected time to find a share is.

In lenny's example that would be 17 years.

[jedimstr]

Ok, I guess "Threshold" is a bad word...

How about this.

There's Variance, and then there's "A Snowball's Chance in Hell".

Right now at my Hashrate based on my experience with the difficulty rises over the last few months, I've gradually crossed over into "A Snowball's Chance in Hell" of getting a regular share and payout.  

Meanwhile in BTC Guild... I currently get 12564 - 13168 shares per round with my miniscule output, so I'm virtually guaranteed a reward even if it's theoretically lower than what would have gotten if I win the Lotto and somehow out of the blue get one measly share within a 24 hour period on P2Pool.  You're right, I might as well have run Solo.... oh wait, there are other choices for us lowly bottom feeders.  

How's that sound?

A year ago, did anyone in this forum think that a miner running around 100Ghs and lower would be considered a bottom feeder?

[twmz]

I would go with "over time" = at least 100 times whatever your expected time to find a share is.

In lenny's example that would be 17 years.

Yes, and in that example case making any statement of "what I earned over the past couple months" is not statistically meaningful.

That example was for 322 MH/s which is insanely small given current bitcoin difficulties.  The only reason to be mining with 300 MH/s at all is if you are betting on another 100-fold increase in the BTC/USD exchange rate making your handful of satoshis valuable someday.  Or alternatively if you don't care about profits and are just mining for the fun of it.  Whatever the reason, definitely don't bother mining on p2pool with that amount of hashrate.

[lenny_]

I would go with "over time" = at least 100 times whatever your expected time to find a share is.

In lenny's example that would be 17 years.

Yes, and in that example case making any statement of "what I earned over the past couple months" is not statistically meaningful.

That example was for 322 MH/s which is insanely small given current bitcoin difficulties.  The only reason to be mining with 300 MH/s at all is if you are betting on another 100-fold increase in the BTC/USD exchange rate making your handful of satoshis valuable someday.  Or alternatively if you don't care about profits and are just mining for the fun of it.  Whatever the reason, definitely don't bother mining on p2pool with that amount of hashrate.

Perfect pool should be profitable for any miner. p2pool is very unfriendly for anything smaller than 10-30 GH/s. I am working to change that - for future of p2pool, which can do good for any miner on the planet, using distributed p2p network of miners. Right now you make profit only if you have lots of expensive ASIC miners.
And yes, I am mining for fun, not for profits - all my Jupiters are sitting on Eligius pool.

[K1773R]

I would go with "over time" = at least 100 times whatever your expected time to find a share is.

In lenny's example that would be 17 years.

Yes, and in that example case making any statement of "what I earned over the past couple months" is not statistically meaningful.

That example was for 322 MH/s which is insanely small given current bitcoin difficulties.  The only reason to be mining with 300 MH/s at all is if you are betting on another 100-fold increase in the BTC/USD exchange rate making your handful of satoshis valuable someday.  Or alternatively if you don't care about profits and are just mining for the fun of it.  Whatever the reason, definitely don't bother mining on p2pool with that amount of hashrate.

Perfect pool should be profitable for any miner. p2pool is very unfriendly for anything smaller than 10-30 GH/s. I am working to change that - for future of p2pool, which can do good for any miner on the planet, using distributed p2p network of miners. Right now you make profit only if you have lots of expensive ASIC miners.
And yes, I am mining for fun, not for profits - all my Jupiters are sitting on Eligius pool.

how about taking a look at what variance is? if you would read and understand it, you would see your wrong...

[wlz2011]

P2Pool release 13.4 - commit hash: 8e7cb8223a38bdd4ff55971d2945f5ccb571e063

Windows binary: http://u.forre.st/u/wftncvpn/p2pool_win32_13.4.zip
Windows binary signature: http://u.forre.st/u/eoietnxc/p2pool_win32_13.4.zip.sig
Source zipball: https://github.com/forrestv/p2pool/zipball/13.4
Source tarball: https://github.com/forrestv/p2pool/tarball/13.4

Changes:
* Require Litecoin >=0.8.5.1
* Warn about old versions of Bitcoin and Terracoin
* Many improvements to web interface and graphs
* Fixed error messages being created in bitcoind's debug.log due to invalid message being sent

P2Pool is a decentralized pool that works by creating a P2P network of miner nodes. These nodes work on a chain of shares similar to Bitcoin's blockchain. Each node works on a block that includes payouts to the previous shares' owners and the node itself. There is no central point of failure, making it DoS resistant.

Related:
P2Pool homepage: http://p2pool.in/
P2Pool stats page, made by twmz: http://p2pool.info/
P2Pool subsidies - Several people are donating to all people using P2Pool in order to promote its decentralized nature - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57027.0
Litecoin P2Pool status - http://p2pool.litecointools.com/

Things that are not P2Pool (and just people running P2Pool): p2pool.org

Graphs: http://p2pool.info/ http://forre.st:9332/

P2Pool wiki page | GitHub project page
New: Mailing list for urgent news (updates, bugs): http://groups.google.com/group/p2pool-notifications

List of all blocks found: http://blockexplorer.com/address/1Kz5QaUPDtKrj5SqW5tFkn7WZh8LmQaQi4

Getting P2Pool

• Run bitcoin with the RPC interface enabled - see the next section for instructions on how to do this
• Download p2pool: (see links at top for binaries!)
  
  • git: git clone git://github.com/forrestv/p2pool.git
• Run p2pool:
  
  • Windows py2exe: run_p2pool.exe
  • Source: python run_p2pool.py
• Run a miner daemon (see https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/P2Pool#Miners ) with long polling connecting to 127.0.0.1 on port 9332 with any username and password
  
  • With all miners, using a high FPS target (30?) or a low intensity (7?) helps a lot with reducing stales.

HOWTO: Bitcoin server mode
You must be running the Bitcoin client, and it must have its RPC interface enabled.

Open the Bitcoin data folder. See https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Data_directory

Make a new file named bitcoin.conf (not bitcoin.conf.txt! You might have to go into Control Panel > Appearance and Personalization > Folder Options > View and uncheck 'Hide extensions for known file types'). Paste this into it:

rpcpassword=<A LONG RANDOM PASSWORD THAT YOU DON'T HAVE TO REMEMBER>
server=1


Dependencies for running FROM SOURCE:

• Bitcoin 0.5.0 or higher
• Python 2.5 or higher
• python-argparse for Python 2.6 and lower
• Twisted (Ubuntu package python-twisted)

Additional options of interest:
    -w PORT: Listen for workers on a port other than 9332.
    -a BITCOIN_ADDRESS: Mine to this address instead of requesting one from Bitcoin.

Last, forward port 9333 through your firewall to the host running p2pool! (Oh, and join #p2pool on freenode!)

嗨，你好！
你不觉得分配制度出问题了吗？110G阿瓦隆没有收获，其它的小算力也支撑不了多久。而难度已经要900M， Share difficulty: 478000，你一天能挖到多少SHARE ？如果我把中国的P2POOL节点矿池关闭，至少有15T算力丢失。而更多的算力也将会陆续丢失。我一直努力尝试让更多人使用P2POOL，但是我失望了。请考虑降低SHARE难度，Share difficulty: 500000在我的矿池4T算力，竟然一小时都很难挖到SHARE。如果这种情况不能得到改善，我和伙伴们2个多月的努力将会丢失。而P2POOL也将损失更多算力，最终会因此而灭亡。希望你能考虑降低Share difficulty。


非常抱歉，我不得不使用谷歌翻译。


http://lis1718.com:9332

来自中国的P2POOL爱好者。

Hi, hello!
Do not you think the distribution system wrong? 110G Avalon no gain, other small force also can not count how long. The difficulty has been to 900M, Share difficulty: 478000, how much of your day can be dug SHARE? If I put mine in China P2POOL node pool is closed, at least 15T force lost count. And more force will also continue to lose count. I have been trying to make more people use P2POOL, but I was disappointed. Please consider reducing the difficulty of SHARE, Share difficulty: 500000 4T pool in my mine operator force, even one hour are hard to dig SHARE. If this situation does not improve, I and partners over two months of hard work will be lost. And P2POOL will lose count more force will thus eventually perish. I hope you can consider reducing Share difficulty.


Very sorry, I had to use Google Translate.


http://lis1718.com:9332

From China P2POOL enthusiasts.

[Polyatomic]

Do not you think the distribution system wrong? 110G Avalon no gain, other small force also can not count how long. The difficulty has been to 900M, Share difficulty: 478000, how much of your day can be dug SHARE? If I put mine in China P2POOL node pool is closed, at least 15T force lost count. And more force will also continue to lose count. I have been trying to make more people use P2POOL, but I was disappointed. Please consider reducing the difficulty of SHARE, Share difficulty: 500000 4T pool in my mine operator force, even one hour are hard to dig SHARE. If this situation does not improve, I and partners over two months of hard work will be lost. And P2POOL will lose count more force will thus eventually perish. I hope you can consider reducing Share difficulty.

Just keep mining man , the minimum share diff always goes up and down. Your Avalon will still get shares.

[nibor]

I am suggesting to change this behaviour to formula:

* If address (miner) is finding shares in less than 60 minutes, increase his node share diff so he will find share in exactly 60 minutes

This will be independent from current pool hashrate, last implementation (percentage of pool hashrate) doesn't work anymore with such big miners we have there now.

Avg. of 24 beefy shares per day will be enough even for largest miners, they shouldn't complain about variance, as their sacrifice will enable small miners to mine again on p2pool, total pool hashrate will increase, so total variance for pool will decrease (profit for all miners).

What you guys think?

Rather than 60 mins a share you should do 60 shares (or fewer) in the paying sharechain? As if p2pool gets very large the 3 block window could reduce to an hour or 2. And then 60 mins per share will mean big miners do not get enough shares to and we will lose the big miners too!

[lenny_]

I got error when I found a share today:

Code:

2013-12-12 01:01:36.423805 P2Pool: 17345 shares in chain (17349 verified/17349 total) Peers: 31 (21 incoming)
2013-12-12 01:01:36.423930  Local: 2356GH/s in last 10.0 minutes Local dead on arrival: ~1.4% (0-3%) Expected time to share: 29.2 minutes
2013-12-12 01:01:36.423978  Shares: 0 (0 orphan, 0 dead) Stale rate: ??? Efficiency: ??? Current payout: 0.0000 BTC
2013-12-12 01:01:36.424015  Pool: 116TH/s Stale rate: 20.5% Expected time to block: 9.3 hours
2013-12-12 01:01:39.436918 P2Pool: 17345 shares in chain (17349 verified/17349 total) Peers: 31 (21 incoming)
2013-12-12 01:01:39.437093  Local: 2357GH/s in last 10.0 minutes Local dead on arrival: ~1.3% (0-3%) Expected time to share: 29.2 minutes
2013-12-12 01:01:39.437174  Shares: 0 (0 orphan, 0 dead) Stale rate: ??? Efficiency: ??? Current payout: 0.0000 BTC
2013-12-12 01:01:39.437264  Pool: 116TH/s Stale rate: 20.5% Expected time to block: 9.3 hours
2013-12-12 01:01:41.593547 GOT SHARE! Jupiter 23877a5a prev a9d32777 age 80.86s
2013-12-12 01:01:41.622728 > Error while processing Event callbacks:
2013-12-12 01:01:41.622811 > Traceback (most recent call last):
2013-12-12 01:01:41.622846 >   File "/home/user/p2pool/p2pool/bitcoin/worker_interface.py", line 136, in <lambda>
2013-12-12 01:01:41.622882 >     lambda header, user, coinbase_nonce: handler(header, user, pack.IntType(self._my_bits).pack(nonce) + coinbase_nonce),
2013-12-12 01:01:41.622915 >   File "/home/user/p2pool/p2pool/work.py", line 403, in got_response
2013-12-12 01:01:41.622981 >     self.node.set_best_share()
2013-12-12 01:01:41.623012 >   File "/home/user/p2pool/p2pool/node.py", line 297, in set_best_share
2013-12-12 01:01:41.623043 >     self.best_share_var.set(best)
2013-12-12 01:01:41.623073 >   File "/home/user/p2pool/p2pool/util/variable.py", line 74, in set
2013-12-12 01:01:41.623103 >     self.changed.happened(value)
2013-12-12 01:01:41.623133 > --- <exception caught here> ---
2013-12-12 01:01:41.623162 >   File "/home/user/p2pool/p2pool/util/variable.py", line 42, in happened
2013-12-12 01:01:41.623192 >     func(*event)
2013-12-12 01:01:41.623232 >   File "/home/user/p2pool/p2pool/node.py", line 96, in broadcast_share
2013-12-12 01:01:41.623271 >     peer.sendShares([share for share in shares if share.peer_addr != peer.addr], self.node.tracker, self.node.known_txs_var.valu
e, include_txs_with=[share_hash])
2013-12-12 01:01:41.623322 >   File "/home/user/p2pool/p2pool/p2p.py", line 291, in sendShares
2013-12-12 01:01:41.623355 >     assert tx_hash in known_txs, 'tried to broadcast share without knowing all its new transactions'
2013-12-12 01:01:41.623394 > exceptions.AssertionError: tried to broadcast share without knowing all its new transactions
2013-12-12 01:01:41.660075 New work for worker! Difficulty: 599.266435 Share difficulty: 1076527.143944 Total block value: 25.061445 BTC including 243 transa
ctions
2013-12-12 01:01:41.691285 New work for worker! Difficulty: 200.000000 Share difficulty: 1076527.143944 Total block value: 25.061445 BTC including 243 transa
ctions
2013-12-12 01:01:42.448631 P2Pool: 17346 shares in chain (17350 verified/17350 total) Peers: 31 (21 incoming)
2013-12-12 01:01:42.448763  Local: 2360GH/s in last 10.0 minutes Local dead on arrival: ~1.5% (1-3%) Expected time to share: 29.2 minutes
2013-12-12 01:01:42.448800  Shares: 1 (0 orphan, 0 dead) Stale rate: ~0.0% (0-80%) Efficiency: ~125.8% (25-126%) Current payout: 0.0080 BTC
2013-12-12 01:01:42.448837  Pool: 116TH/s Stale rate: 20.5% Expected time to block: 9.3 hours
2013-12-12 01:01:45.462377 P2Pool: 17346 shares in chain (17350 verified/17350 total) Peers: 31 (21 incoming)
2013-12-12 01:01:45.462555  Local: 2369GH/s in last 10.0 minutes Local dead on arrival: ~1.5% (1-3%) Expected time to share: 29.2 minutes
2013-12-12 01:01:45.462638  Shares: 1 (0 orphan, 0 dead) Stale rate: ~0.0% (0-80%) Efficiency: ~125.8% (25-126%) Current payout: 0.0080 BTC

Then found another share and it was fine:

Code:

2013-12-12 01:04:22.130684  Local: 2329GH/s in last 10.0 minutes Local dead on arrival: ~1.6% (1-3%) Expected time to share: 30.1 minutes
2013-12-12 01:04:22.130717  Shares: 1 (1 orphan, 0 dead) Stale rate: ~100.0% (20-100%) Efficiency: ~0.0% (0-100%) Current payout: 0.0000 BTC
2013-12-12 01:04:22.130754  Pool: 115TH/s Stale rate: 20.5% Expected time to block: 9.4 hours
2013-12-12 01:04:22.335429 New work for worker! Difficulty: 691.171186 Share difficulty: 1241624.893775 Total block value: 25.087831 BTC including 352 transa
ctions
2013-12-12 01:04:22.377099 New work for worker! Difficulty: 200.000000 Share difficulty: 1241624.893775 Total block value: 25.087831 BTC including 352 transa
ctions
2013-12-12 01:04:25.143566 P2Pool: 17351 shares in chain (17355 verified/17355 total) Peers: 31 (21 incoming)
2013-12-12 01:04:25.143681  Local: 2325GH/s in last 10.0 minutes Local dead on arrival: ~1.7% (1-3%) Expected time to share: 30.2 minutes
2013-12-12 01:04:25.143714  Shares: 1 (1 orphan, 0 dead) Stale rate: ~100.0% (20-100%) Efficiency: ~0.0% (0-100%) Current payout: 0.0000 BTC
2013-12-12 01:04:25.143750  Pool: 120TH/s Stale rate: 20.5% Expected time to block: 9.0 hours
2013-12-12 01:04:27.234256 GOT SHARE! Jupiter3 89d9ea47 prev faed7137 age 4.87s
2013-12-12 01:04:27.349609 New work for worker! Difficulty: 614.131984 Share difficulty: 1103231.495636 Total block value: 25.087831 BTC including 352 transa
ctions
2013-12-12 01:04:27.391143 New work for worker! Difficulty: 200.000000 Share difficulty: 1103231.495636 Total block value: 25.087831 BTC including 352 transa
ctions
2013-12-12 01:04:28.156049 P2Pool: 17352 shares in chain (17356 verified/17356 total) Peers: 31 (21 incoming)
2013-12-12 01:04:28.156144  Local: 2327GH/s in last 10.0 minutes Local dead on arrival: ~1.7% (1-3%) Expected time to share: 30.2 minutes
2013-12-12 01:04:28.156176  Shares: 2 (1 orphan, 0 dead) Stale rate: ~50.0% (9-91%) Efficiency: ~63.3% (11-115%) Current payout: 0.0114 BTC
2013-12-12 01:04:28.156213  Pool: 121TH/s Stale rate: 21.1% Expected time to block: 8.9 hours
2013-12-12 01:04:30.834454 Peer sent entire transaction 90e0bb504ac630d2e08ddf489731341236812c22179e74fedde6a6b5d96282ad that was already received
2013-12-12 01:04:31.166570 P2Pool: 17352 shares in chain (17356 verified/17356 total) Peers: 31 (21 incoming)

Also, adjusting share diff works for my node, just fine. p2pool gives work to my workers and reporting share time:

Code:

2013-12-12 01:06:00.703104 Got new merged mining work!
2013-12-12 01:06:00.740053 New work for worker! Difficulty: 570.368318 Share difficulty: 1024614.009517 Total block value: 25.021775 BTC including 157 transactions
2013-12-12 01:06:00.767854 New work for worker! Difficulty: 200.000000 Share difficulty: 1024614.009517 Total block value: 25.021775 BTC including 157 transactions
2013-12-12 01:06:01.621688 P2Pool: 17351 shares in chain (17355 verified/17355 total) Peers: 31 (21 incoming)
2013-12-12 01:06:01.621786  Local: 2352GH/s in last 10.0 minutes Local dead on arrival: ~1.8% (1-3%) Expected time to share: 30.4 minutes

But on webpage it says:

Code:

Pool rate: 121TH/s (21% DOA+orphan) Share difficulty: 487000

Node uptime: 4.0 days Peers: 10 out, 21 in

Local rate: 2.41TH/s (1.5% DOA) Expected time to share: 14.5 minutes

So we have different share diff and ETA for workers in p2pool log, and different share diff nad ETA on p2pool front page. But adjusting itself works very good, I have Expected time to share in p2pool log always auto-adjusted to ~30 minutes.

EDIT:
Both shares I found has been orphaned couple of minutes later!!! :O With series of errors. Whole log here:
http://lenny.dnsd.me/p2pool.log

Shares: 2 (2 orphan, 0 dead) Stale rate: ~100.0% (34-100%) Efficiency: ~0.0% (0-80%) Current payout: 0.0000 BTC
  Can someone explain how it happened?

[lenny_]

I switched back one worker, I have now 500GH/s less hashrate, but adjusting share difficulty works fine, it's still targeting for 30 minutes:
Before:

Code:

2013-12-12 01:25:39.378616 Got new merged mining work!
2013-12-12 01:25:39.467493 New work for worker! Difficulty: 524.676247 Share difficulty: 942532.952855 Total block value: 25.136015 BTC including 618 transac
tions
2013-12-12 01:25:39.536678 New work for worker! Difficulty: 200.000000 Share difficulty: 942532.952855 Total block value: 25.136015 BTC including 618 transac
tions
2013-12-12 01:25:39.943825 New work for worker! Difficulty: 524.676247 Share difficulty: 942532.952855 Total block value: 25.136015 BTC including 618 transac
tions
2013-12-12 01:25:40.014058 New work for worker! Difficulty: 200.000000 Share difficulty: 942532.952855 Total block value: 25.136015 BTC including 618 transac
tions
2013-12-12 01:25:40.431869 P2Pool: 17329 shares in chain (17333 verified/17333 total) Peers: 30 (20 incoming)
2013-12-12 01:25:40.431971  Local: 2312GH/s in last 10.0 minutes Local dead on arrival: ~1.5% (1-3%) Expected time to share: 29.8 minutes
2013-12-12 01:25:40.432022  Shares: 2 (2 orphan, 0 dead) Stale rate: ~100.0% (34-100%) Efficiency: ~0.0% (0-80%) Current payout: 0.0000 BTC
2013-12-12 01:25:40.432066  Pool: 113TH/s Stale rate: 17.2% Expected time to block: 9.6 hours

After switching back one Jupiter:

Code:

2013-12-12 01:38:35.039265 Got new merged mining work!
2013-12-12 01:38:35.081103 New work for worker! Difficulty: 460.471053 Share difficulty: 827194.125247 Total block value: 25.045982 BTC including 227 transac
tions
2013-12-12 01:38:35.110148 New work for worker! Difficulty: 200.000000 Share difficulty: 827194.125247 Total block value: 25.045982 BTC including 227 transac
tions
2013-12-12 01:38:35.294612 P2Pool: 17341 shares in chain (17345 verified/17345 total) Peers: 30 (20 incoming)
2013-12-12 01:38:35.294721  Local: 1922GH/s in last 10.0 minutes Local dead on arrival: ~2.4% (1-4%) Expected time to share: 29.4 minutes
2013-12-12 01:38:35.294754  Shares: 3 (2 orphan, 0 dead) Stale rate: ~66.7% (20-94%) Efficiency: ~40.0% (7-96%) Current payout: 0.0080 BTC
2013-12-12 01:38:35.294790  Pool: 113TH/s Stale rate: 16.7% Expected time to block: 9.5 hours

After switching another one:

Code:

2013-12-12 01:49:11.751705 Got new merged mining work!
2013-12-12 01:49:11.779507 New work for worker! Difficulty: 315.541941 Share difficulty: 566841.961741 Total block value: 25.063109 BTC including 155 transactions
2013-12-12 01:49:11.802853 New work for worker! Difficulty: 200.000000 Share difficulty: 566841.961741 Total block value: 25.063109 BTC including 155 transactions
2013-12-12 01:49:13.899286 Peer sent entire transaction 25702c285a2b64d0abb7c0421a01dc68159428b594491a318870a652016fa6d5 that was already received
2013-12-12 01:49:14.122667 P2Pool: 17328 shares in chain (17332 verified/17332 total) Peers: 30 (20 incoming)
2013-12-12 01:49:14.122844  Local: 1435GH/s in last 10.0 minutes Local dead on arrival: ~2.1% (1-4%) Expected time to share: 30.6 minutes
2013-12-12 01:49:14.122970  Shares: 4 (2 orphan, 0 dead) Stale rate: ~50.0% (15-85%) Efficiency: ~60.0% (18-102%) Current payout: 0.0124 BTC
2013-12-12 01:49:14.123066  Pool: 109TH/s Stale rate: 16.7% Expected time to block: 9.9 hours

At this point, I think, that adjusting code should be simpified to one rule:

if your expected time to share is less than 60 minutes, adjust share diff so expected time to share is again 60 minutes.

This will work with all miners, big and biggest ones, gives more room for smaller miners like less than 50, 100 GH/s again.