Liquid Synergy Designs Inc. -ASIC mining hardware

[rocks]

Clearly the first batch to arrive should go to the Batch #1 buyers, who have been waiting the longest.

Anything else is ridiculous.

This buy has been FIFO since day one. Who cares about whatever number Avalon decides to stick on the side of a box?

Hogwash. The burden of lost/late/never shipments should not be pushed down the line to the last batch. That is ridiculous. Each batch transaction is clearly independent of the others. They each had to meet a chip quantity ordered before purchased, they each have their own order date, and they each have their own Avalon order number. The only thing in common between the batches is they are organized by the same group buy leader -- that doesn't mean they should automatically become dependent on one another.

By placing an order for chips not in the first few batches I have no intention of shouldering the burden of order problems on previous batches, just like my batch purchase shouldn't be impacted by order problems in other non-steamboat group buys. If you expect the last batch or two customers to get get stuck holding the bag if any batch doesn't fulfill, then clearly those batch customers should have received a steep discount compared to the other batches. Insurance like that isn't free.

I don't think you all understand how the probability on this works. Here is some math from Statistics 101. Let's say the probability of any given shipment never arriving is 15%.
If everyone shares the burden equally then there is a 15% change you'll be SOL. Sounds fair to me. Equal burden for all.
If you push the burden down the line to later batches, then:
 the probability that batch 1 won't receive chips drops from 15% to 0.0011390625% (.15 * .15 * .15 * .15 * .15)
  - AND -
 the probability that batch 6 is screwed jumps from 15% to 62.285% (1 - [.85 * .85 * .85 * .85 * .85]).

Again, there is no way it would be fair for later batch customers to have all of the burden of lost/late/never shipments. That burden should be spread out across the batches evenly.

This ^^^^

The risk is on each batch individually and steamboat has separate order numbers for each batch

Otherwise the last batch bears all of the compounded the risk of all the previous batches, which is not fair. Also batch 1 would gain from each subsequent order placed, i.e. if 100 batches were ordered then batch 1's odds of delivery would go up significantly, which they never paid for and thus is not fair.

Steamboat should be clear on the order numbers and go by order delivery.

Of course this all assumes batches are delivered at all, which is a poor assumption. At this point we are just squabbling.

[cp1]

You guys really like getting your panties bunched up over every little thing that could go wrong.

[nightengale]

You guys really like getting your panties bunched up over every little thing that could go wrong.

Well I'm glad there's an adult in the room.

/sarcasm

[KS]

The risk is on each batch individually and steamboat has separate order numbers for each batch

Why complicate simple things? Each batch has an Avalon order number, when that package arrives, that batch is delivered.

It would be a bad idea for SB to stick his finger in the grinder and start meddling with who gets what. There is no fair when you take a gamble.

[Boxman90]

The risk is on each batch individually and steamboat has separate order numbers for each batch

Why complicate simple things? Each batch has an Avalon order number, when that package arrives, that batch is delivered.

It would be a bad idea for SB to stick his finger in the grinder and start meddling with who gets what. There is no fair when you take a gamble.

That's exactly why we would like steamboat to publically and without any ambiguity post his policy for such situation here. The original post is not clear on this. The scenario is realistic, given Avalaon's recent history of unorganized shipping.

[powpow]

Why would a group buyer from group 3 give their chips to group 1?

They are in a group buy with everyone in #3, not this entire thing.  Each of the group buys is separate entity and is split by FIFO.

[thejestre]

You guys really like getting your panties bunched up over every little thing that could go wrong.

Oh shoot, now you've done it...

We need to argue about what _color_ those panties are now...

[tiros]

Here is where these group buys stands.

Steamboat

Code:

2013-07-06: Batch 6 ordered - Expected date of arrival (10 weeks) - 2013-09-14 ---> + 28 days
2013-06-05: Batch 5 ordered - Expected date of arrival (10 weeks) - 2013-08-14 ---> -  4 days
2013-05-28: Batch 4 ordered - Expected date of arrival (10 weeks) - 2013-08-06 ---> - 13 days
2013-05-22: Batch 3 ordered - Expected date of arrival (10 weeks) - 2013-07-31 ---> - 19 days
2013-05-11: Batch 2 ordered - Expected date of arrival (10 weeks) - 2013-07-20 ---> - 30 days
2013-05-01: Batch 1 ordered - Expected date of arrival (10 weeks) - 2013-07-10 ---> - 40 days

Avalon - Chips group buy order time frame and deliveries
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277198.msg2959430#msg2959430

[eroxors]

You guys really like getting your panties bunched up over every little thing that could go wrong.

Oh shoot, now you've done it...

We need to argue about what _color_ those panties are now...

But, what if batch 1 ships fedex and avalon sends batch 2 at the same time but through DHL and arrives days earlier? Will steamboat wait to assemble batch 2, because he said he would do the batches in order? What if my specific chips (in the order that I ordered them) somehow don't come with the package? What then? Steamboat, you really need to answer my question, because I am your customer and I need constant attention so that I can be sure that my "investment" is safe. You also need to make sure to post here twice a day and provide twitter updates, I want to know if the temperature changes in the assembly area, I also want to know who will be assembling my devices, you can never be too sure these days. 

[trigeek]

But, what if batch 1 ships fedex and avalon sends batch 2 at the same time but through DHL and arrives days earlier? Will steamboat wait to assemble batch 2, because he said he would do the batches in order? What if my specific chips (in the order that I ordered them) somehow don't come with the package? What then? Steamboat, you really need to answer my question, because I am your customer and I need constant attention so that I can be sure that my "investment" is safe. You also need to make sure to post here twice a day and provide twitter updates, I want to know if the temperature changes in the assembly area, I also want to know who will be assembling my devices, you can never be too sure these days. 

You had me up until the twitter updates... 

Everyone- chill out!  You can invent a million what-if scenarios.  Quit getting all amped up about something that hasn't even happened yet.  If one of these far-fetched situations actually comes to pass, THEN you have something to spam this thread about.

[Unacceptable]

You guys really like getting your panties bunched up over every little thing that could go wrong.

Oh shoot, now you've done it...

We need to argue about what _color_ those panties are now...

But, what if batch 1 ships fedex and avalon sends batch 2 at the same time but through DHL and arrives days earlier? Will steamboat wait to assemble batch 2, because he said he would do the batches in order? What if my specific chips (in the order that I ordered them) somehow don't come with the package? What then? Steamboat, you really need to answer my question, because I am your customer and I need constant attention so that I can be sure that my "investment" is safe. You also need to make sure to post here twice a day and provide twitter updates, I want to know if the temperature changes in the assembly area, I also want to know who will be assembling my devices, you can never be too sure these days.  

   & how many squares can you spare?? If you can't spare a square,then there is definitly something wrong  

Oh & watch out for that dingo,if it'll eat a baby,it might eat those chips!!!!!!!!!

[cardcomm]

You guys really like getting your panties bunched up over every little thing that could go wrong.

Oh shoot, now you've done it...

We need to argue about what _color_ those panties are now...

I'm not wearing any panties 

[Rakessh]

You guys really like getting your panties bunched up over every little thing that could go wrong.

Oh shoot, now you've done it...

We need to argue about what _color_ those panties are now...

I'm not wearing any panties 

What is this panties you speak of?!

[ScaryHash]

Honestly, according to my initial projections, I was hoping to actually be mining by the first week in August.

However, I fully expected for things to get delayed until the beginning of September, or maybe even Sept 15th. I originally projected Batch 1 starting off at 60 million difficulty for my personal ROI. I thought I was being overly pessimistic.

Guess it will probably be somewhere around there. 40 million would have been a nice bonus. Hopefully, we'll get some stinkin' batch in the next couple of weeks, but I'm not going to realistically expect the chips for a month.

That way, we get some in, it will be a bonus. 

Heh.

[ionstorm]

Checking in daily, maybe I shouldn't until I receive my asics in the mail from steamboat, this is getting more depressing by the day...

[cardcomm]

Honestly, according to my initial projections, I was hoping to actually be mining by the first week in August.

However, I fully expected for things to get delayed until the beginning of September, or maybe even Sept 15th. I originally projected Batch 1 starting off at 60 million difficulty for my personal ROI. I thought I was being overly pessimistic.

Guess it will probably be somewhere around there. 40 million would have been a nice bonus. Hopefully, we'll get some stinkin' batch in the next couple of weeks, but I'm not going to realistically expect the chips for a month.

That way, we get some in, it will be a bonus.  

Heh.

We should be so lucky to have 60 Million at Sept 15. It'll be over 60 at the next increase. Who knows by mid Sept.?

[nightengale]

Just in case anyone didn't see the latest update from BitSyncom, via their website:

"chips have arrived via other routes as previously announced, we are shipping them out at the rate of 40-50k on a daily basis at the moment, in addition to the ~150k or so that went out, another 40k was shipped today. There is multiple channel which the chips are arriving from various packaging facility to minimize downtime. Please bare this in mind: while we had backup/multiple packaging companies and various delivery routes, things still will go wrong. There is also testing that must be done, then they can split, packed and sent to the EZP coupled with their CN-22 and be on their way. We will provide more update as they come. In addition, the trade-in and refunds are being processed."

Meh.

[nightengale]

If you have a direct order with Avalon via DHL and want to check to see if your chips have shipped, call DHL at 1 (800) 225-5345  and give them your name and address and ask if there are any shipments on route in your name. Works like a charm

Saw this in another thread, wasn't sure if Steamboat had given this a try.

[rocks]

Just in case anyone didn't see the latest update from BitSyncom, via their website:

"chips have arrived via other routes as previously announced, we are shipping them out at the rate of 40-50k on a daily basis at the moment, in addition to the ~150k or so that went out, another 40k was shipped today. There is multiple channel which the chips are arriving from various packaging facility to minimize downtime. Please bare this in mind: while we had backup/multiple packaging companies and various delivery routes, things still will go wrong. There is also testing that must be done, then they can split, packed and sent to the EZP coupled with their CN-22 and be on their way. We will provide more update as they come. In addition, the trade-in and refunds are being processed."

Meh.

He should go to the group buy thread that lists all the group buy orders together in one place, and publicly state which ones are out the door and which are shipping soon. Otherwise this is all garbage.

[ionstorm]

I have a feeling the chips were stuck enroute to Yifu, not enroute to groupbuys, that sucks, its quite possible this is fault of TCSM or customs being retarded, happy to see some progress today, hope to hear some good news from steamboat soonish