Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.
Your explanations are good and make sense, however they do not take into account that sh*t can and does happen. I work for a private fund that has lost millions over the last 10 years to outfits like Madoff, Corzine, EDF Mann etc. Yet we are still around, which kinda lets you deduce that there must be substantial funds at work here ;-)
Those were all bona fide, on-the-level, trustworthy outfits...until they collapsed with a ton of money, including ours. And take note of this curious fact: Money never disappears, it's just that somebody else has it. So, without implying that Slush or anybody is skimming, is crooked, or whatever... You cannot blindly go through life like a clown on a minefield, hoping that nothing will ever go wrong and there is no evil.
I am note sure I follow your logic here, Slush is not an investment fund it is a mining outfit, therefore the only sh*t that happens comes within the rules of probability. Slush does hold our bitcoins so there is a potential that he could shut up shop and run away with all the unpaid bitcoins, however setting your payment level at the minimum allowed and switching pools if a payment is late can go some way towards mitigating such a risk.
I would guess that as an investment fund you probably invest in shares, and by the sounds of things in shares with a high risk/return potential so you shouldn't be surprised when sh*t happens, in fact it should be a part of your investment strategy. If you are investing in shares then you should realise that a funds value is just virtual until it is crystallised by a sale of the shares. This means that if you invest say £10M in Google and it doubles to £20M then you have on paper a £10M profit but that £10M profit only really exists if you sell the shares. If before you sell those shares they drop back to £10M then you could say that you have made a £10M loss, but in reality you never realised the 10M profit so you have just broken even, in such an example the £10M never really existed so it isn't true that "somebody else has it", it really did never exist.
It is not the case that I "go blindly through life like a clown on a minefield" (although I do struggle to understand your analogy), I take the time to understand the risks and rather that trusting Slush not to do me out of bitcoins, I use statistics to ensure that the returns from Slush are within a margin of acceptability.
It's easy to through about inaccurate analogies, or to imply some wrongdoing this is why there are so many conspiracy theories in the world; considering the existence of a conspiracy or of pure evil without first ruling out the alternatives is a sign of a weak mind, or poor cognitive ability.
As luck seems to be back with us now we could deduce that the rules of probability are just demonstrating their usual variance, although some may say that this is evidence of some higher force reacting top the negative comments posted here, personally I like the rain dance theory and look forward to seeing the video.
