Bitcoin Forum
July 23, 2019, 10:03:43 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.18.0 [Torrent] (New!)
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 ... 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 [95] 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 ... 317 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919569 times)
plopper50
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 64
Merit: 10


View Profile
September 20, 2014, 08:10:02 PM
 #1881

How much lower do you predict?
"The nature of Bitcoin is such that once version 0.1 was released, the core design was set in stone for the rest of its lifetime." -- Satoshi
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1563876223
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1563876223

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1563876223
Reply with quote  #2

1563876223
Report to moderator
masterluc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 938
Merit: 1000



View Profile
September 22, 2014, 11:08:36 AM
 #1882

Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.

devphp
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 336
Merit: 250


View Profile
September 22, 2014, 11:10:21 AM
 #1883

Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.

Don't be so cryptic, speak your mind.
JimNastics
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 26
Merit: 0


View Profile
September 22, 2014, 11:17:02 AM
 #1884

Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.

Really wish it had closed firmly below the weekly BB last night, would have been really interesting to see what kind of carnage unfolded (if any). As it was, I think it just about clung on.
Tzupy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764
Merit: 1052



View Profile
September 22, 2014, 11:24:55 AM
 #1885

Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.

That's not as bearish as it looks, because the market movements take so much longer now than in late June - early July 2013.
If you look at the daily charts for that period, price being just below the BB was very common towards the bottom.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
masterluc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 938
Merit: 1000



View Profile
September 22, 2014, 12:00:10 PM
 #1886

I searched for historical patterns. I thought if price closes above +1 w/bb then it means parabolic rise - 4 examples in history.

And if opposite - it supposed to be a parabolic fall. And no examples in history...

Tzupy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764
Merit: 1052



View Profile
September 22, 2014, 02:32:57 PM
 #1887

My point is that historical patterns shouldn't be measured with the same metric.




Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
myself
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 938
Merit: 1000


chaos is fun...…damental :)


View Profile
September 22, 2014, 03:25:24 PM
 #1888

Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.
is about time Tongue

if u were in WA chat 2 months ago then u could save some time

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
sumantso
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000



View Profile
September 22, 2014, 08:32:38 PM
 #1889

Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.

I take it means that your bloodbath prediction is still active.


$320? Ouch!

Whats the timescale you think it needs to unfold?

Probably only has a chance if downwards momentum is keeping up, so over the next few days, I suppose.

But I'm kind of fishing in the dark here, that's why I'm asking the master Cheesy

Seems it has unfolded Sad

masterluc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 938
Merit: 1000



View Profile
September 22, 2014, 08:36:16 PM
 #1890

Bah, nobody understands me =) It is so habitually, so I'm bored

oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007



View Profile
September 22, 2014, 08:54:51 PM
 #1891

What's not to understand? Close below weekly lower BB = bad, with no precedent in trading history.

Or are you saying it's a bullish sign? :D

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
Pruden
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 492
Merit: 500

Spanish Bitcoin trader


View Profile
September 22, 2014, 11:15:08 PM
 #1892

Why are so many of you speaking of it as if it had happened? The price stayed just above lower BB.
RyNinDaCleM
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2394
Merit: 1007


Legen -wait for it- dary


View Profile
September 22, 2014, 11:30:41 PM
 #1893

Why are so many of you speaking of it as if it had happened? The price stayed just above lower BB.

So far...

Wary
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 798
Merit: 1000


Who's there?


View Profile
September 22, 2014, 11:34:11 PM
 #1894

There is nothing special about BTC closing price, since BTC trades 24h. It's just price at random time.

But even price at random time going below 1w BB is sad. Doest it mean incoming 20x rally down? IMO, it doesn't.

We had 10x/year uptrend with 8-month bubbles on top of it. Because of the uptrend price was above EMA and therefore at beginning of bubbles it crossed higher BB.
Now [IMO] we have (slight) downtrend with dumped bubbles on top of it. Because of the downtrend price is below EMA and therefore between bubbles it crosses lower BB. Bad, but not end-of-the world. Next bubble is on schedule. Maybe dumped one (we had 2 dumped bubbles in a row in 2011-12), maybe on top of continuing downtrend. But still a bubble.  


Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
RyNinDaCleM
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2394
Merit: 1007


Legen -wait for it- dary


View Profile
September 22, 2014, 11:45:56 PM
 #1895

There is nothing special about BTC closing price, since BTC trades 24h. It's just price at random time.

But even price at random time going below 1w BB is sad. Doest it mean incoming 20x rally down? IMO, it doesn't.

We had 10x/year uptrend with 8-month bubbles on top of it. Because of the uptrend price was above EMA and at beginning of bubbles it crossed higher BB.
Now [IMO] we have (slight) downtrend with dumped bubbles on top of it. Because of the downtrend price is below EMA and between bubbles it crosses lower BB. Bad, but not end-of-the world. Next bubble is on schedule. Maybe dumped one (we had 2 dumped bubbles in a row in 2011-12), maybe on top of continuing downtrend. But still a bubble. 



Except it's not a random time. It's 00:00 UTC EVERY time. Sure it's an arbitrary timezone, but as long as there is a standard that everyone uses, it is consistent and gives you the information needed between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59 every day, every week, always. The significance is that over the course of 7 days (equally spaced) we had enough selling to threaten the lower BB. No it doesn't mean 20x down if broken, but it does strengthen the bear market, and while we are held down by it, we could see very deep selling.

It didn't happen yet. It may not, but there is a very good possibility that it will. So, for now, the Bitcoin depression has been held off. This could turn into a nice bounce here, but there is still time for it to happen next week, or the week after that...

Wary
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 798
Merit: 1000


Who's there?


View Profile
September 23, 2014, 12:06:14 AM
 #1896

There is nothing special about BTC closing price, since BTC trades 24h. It's just price at random time.

But even price at random time going below 1w BB is sad. Doest it mean incoming 20x rally down? IMO, it doesn't.

We had 10x/year uptrend with 8-month bubbles on top of it. Because of the uptrend price was above EMA and at beginning of bubbles it crossed higher BB.
Now [IMO] we have (slight) downtrend with dumped bubbles on top of it. Because of the downtrend price is below EMA and between bubbles it crosses lower BB. Bad, but not end-of-the world. Next bubble is on schedule. Maybe dumped one (we had 2 dumped bubbles in a row in 2011-12), maybe on top of continuing downtrend. But still a bubble.  



Except it's not a random time. It's 00:00 UTC EVERY time. Sure it's an arbitrary timezone, but as long as there is a standard that everyone uses, it is consistent and gives you the information needed between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59 every day, every week, always. The significance is that over the course of 7 days (equally spaced) we had enough selling to threaten the lower BB. No it doesn't mean 20x down if broken, but it does strengthen the bear market, and while we are held down by it, we could see very deep selling.

It didn't happen yet. It may not, but there is a very good possibility that it will. So, for now, the Bitcoin depression has been held off. This could turn into a nice bounce here, but there is still time for it to happen next week, or the week after that...
I agree, it is exact time, but it's random in other sense. In stock trade closing time does matter because it's followed by non-trading period and during that period anything affecting the price can happen but you won't be able to react. So, to reduce risk exposure, daytraders try to close their positions by that time. That's why the closing time matters. It fixes results of the day and expected changes of the night. But in BTC trade nothing special happens at 23:59:59, there is no reasons to close your positions by that time.  It that sense this time is random and as such carries less significance than stock trading one.

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
HeliKopterBen
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 622
Merit: 500



View Profile
September 23, 2014, 12:44:13 AM
 #1897

I am bullish on bitcoin but I will admit the charts look a bit ominous.  This is more or less what a crash fractal would look like if it were to happen with downside acceleration.  Excuse my drawing skills.  Also, this is a crashy time of year through October.  If we can make it into November and above that upper trendline, then it would negate this pattern and the waters may be safe again. 


Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
Zarathustra
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1106
Merit: 1000



View Profile
September 23, 2014, 08:22:47 AM
 #1898

Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.

Hey Master! Bitcoin exchanges never close! They are open all the time. That's the difference to the old world. Wink
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007



View Profile
September 23, 2014, 09:27:03 AM
 #1899

I think a lot of people in here are under the misconception that closing price is completely uninformative in a market that is traded 24/7. It is not.

It might carry a bit less weight than in a traditional market with actual closing times of trading, but it still carries information on where the market moved, or stopped moving, towards the end of the candle time range. That alone makes close informative, even if the market never actually closes.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
h3speros
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 189
Merit: 100



View Profile WWW
September 23, 2014, 10:05:12 AM
Last edit: September 23, 2014, 03:18:52 PM by h3speros
 #1900

sense in TA comes from how past affect people who makes decisions about future, UTC closing price surely can be one thing that affect people decisions

there's no point trying to find "traditional" or "nature" reason from TA, you have to understand its own social/psychological mode of action

im not native english speaker/writer so bare with my choice of words

only crypto market predictions, no bullshit https://twitter.com/h3speros
Pages: « 1 ... 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 [95] 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 ... 317 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!