Analysis

[smoothie]

A quick remark on the discussion above:

I'd like to point out that, other than the (extremely important, of course) "market mood" we tend to talk about in here, which can be seen as an extremely elastic, "fickle" supply/demand variable, there's also a supply/demand variable which is a lot less elastic, a type of nearly "guaranteed" supply/demand.

Simplifying somewhat, I'd describe it as: (a) coins mined per day, (b) price per coin vs. (c) number of "hardcore Bitcoiners", (d) monthly income of the group in (c), (e) determination of group (c) to spend (a portion of) their income to buy more bitcoins.

To be clear, I'm not saying that 1xx or double digits are impossible. But I'm going in a similar direction as fatman above, "[when price goes] below $230 people start sending money to exchanges":

At 9xx, 6xx, even 3xx prices, the "guaranteed demand" of (c)*(d) didn't seem to be enough to hold the dam against the "guaranteed supply" of (a)*(b) added to the supply/demand outcome of the market mood. Hence, price declined. At 1xx, that appears to be different (so far).

Of course, eventually the mood of the market will probably influence (e) as well, i.e. the willingness of the hardcore Bitcoin supporters to spend their income on coins might diminish. But I'm not completely sure that's going to happen before the market mood changes again to bullish, so that effect might not take place soon enough to drive us into the doubles.

Summarizing, I agree with the discussion above that we will enter No Man's Land should we go below $200 and stay there, but I  also add that so far, any supply below $200 seems to be soaked up quickly and effectively.

True but it is pretty much always true that people are sending money to exchanges.

The question is, is it more money than usual?

[1714777459]

1714777459

[1714777459]

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[findftp]

Don't forget people that Bitcoin is backed by Greed

I disagree. Bitcoin is backed by the people using it.

But w/o greed or speculation, the usury dries up imo quite a bit which can lead to folks going awol around here. I hope we can at least agree on that to some extent. I think that the greed factor is healthy and keeps newcomers interested for using it more, in many of its uses. W/o discounts for regulars to use bitcoin at their shopping destination, spec and the like is what drives the demand and the like at this point.

...

Something needs to give so that actual use increases greatly, its the only way the price will increase.

I disagree, just look at gold.
Usage became lower and lower each year last few hundred years.
Price on the other hand...

It's nice to have a more superior form of gold which is actually much easier to spend than physical gold.
Gold became useless as a currency because it had to be broken down into dust to buy a bread.
Bitcoin solves this problem.
Spending 1 bitcoin is as easy as spending 0.00001

[oda.krell]

[...]

True but it is pretty much always true that people are sending money to exchanges.

The question is, is it more money than usual?

I probably didn't make my point clear (or concise ) enough:

No, I don't think it's more than usual in absolute terms. But as price declines and emission stays constant, if I'm right about the "money sent to buy more" being roughly constant, its effect on price increases, i.e. it might be enough to "hold" 1xx even though it wasn't enough to "hold" 3xx.

[pinky]

I disagree, just look at gold.
Usage became lower and lower each year last few hundred years.
Price on the other hand...

It's nice to have a more superior form of gold which is actually much easier to spend than physical gold.
Gold became useless as a currency because it had to be broken down into dust to buy a bread.
Bitcoin solves this problem.
Spending 1 bitcoin is as easy as spending 0.00001

You somehow assume that you can compare gold and bitcoins. This is a big logical fallacy.

[hdbuck]

Don't forget people that Bitcoin is backed by Greed

I disagree. Bitcoin is backed by the people using it.

Who people ? there is no one left

But but.. Increase blocksize to get moar people! Mass adoption It is! XDD

Greed is bad, Dark market is harming bitcoin, lets all pay frappucinos with bitcoin and dgaf about the inéluctable centralisation bigger blocks brings, cuz thats what It is meant for! Euro like store of value! Chooochoooo

[findftp]

I disagree, just look at gold.
Usage became lower and lower each year last few hundred years.
Price on the other hand...

It's nice to have a more superior form of gold which is actually much easier to spend than physical gold.
Gold became useless as a currency because it had to be broken down into dust to buy a bread.
Bitcoin solves this problem.
Spending 1 bitcoin is as easy as spending 0.00001

You somehow assume that you can compare gold and bitcoins. This is a big logical fallacy.

Why can't you compare gold and bitcoin?
I think it's not so difficult to find some points which are comparable.

It's much harder to compare the moon with a flower.

Can you explain me the fallacy which I seem to be missing?

[opossum]

Actually they can and should be compared. No need to do that though, because it has been done so many times. And whether one agrees or disagrees, the variable elements are most interesting. The fact that so much of "value" is ascribed, not inherent. Or how much easier it is to get 10 million in BTC across a border than the same amount in gold.

[maxcarjuzaa]

The name of the thread is "Analysis never end" not gold vs bitcoin, i guess you guys are loosing the focus and spoiling one of the best post in the site.

[smoothie]

If you are still holding a significant position, I would keep a trigger finger on a stop-loss.

You shouldn't need a trigger finger to have a stop loss. Set it and forget it.

[madjules007]

To be clear, I'm not saying that 1xx or double digits are impossible. But I'm going in a similar direction as fatman above, "[when price goes] below $230 people start sending money to exchanges":

My earlier point regarding this -- Whether or not people start sending money to exchanges is quite irrelevant to the liquidity vacuum that exists below a certain price point. If we are discussing the possibility of margin cascades, it is unlikely that people could wire money to exchanges fast enough to prevent a flash crash. I have no doubt that real demand for bitcoins in the $100s is much, much higher than an exchange order book's capability to handle temporary and volatile supply/demand imbalance.

In this instance, leveraged positions are far, far more relevant than money on its way to the exchanges.

[lunarboy]

Please take the OT discussion elsewhere.  

jeez i've not even seen a chart for three pages. 

[RyNinDaCleM]

Please take the OT discussion elsewhere.  

jeez i've not even seen a chart for three pages. 

Here's a chart! 

[davidorentol]

confirmed inverted H&S ,1h   

[notme]

confirmed inverted H&S ,1h   

What are you smoking?

[Wexlike]

confirmed inverted H&S ,1h   

What are you smoking?

Almost.. 

[smoothie]

confirmed inverted H&S ,1h   

What are you smoking?

Almost.. 

ARM, HEAD, SHOULDER

 

[RyNinDaCleM]

confirmed inverted H&S ,1h   

What are you smoking?

Almost.. 

ARM, HEAD, SHOULDER

 

Inverse sprinkler, anyone?

[smoothie]

Please take the OT discussion elsewhere.  

jeez i've not even seen a chart for three pages. 

Here's a chart! 

this seems like a reasonable price path ...

[coinableS]

I was looking up some forex tech analysis stuff today and came across this.
http://www.fxkeys.com/doji-candlestick-doji-star-how-to-trade-using-doji-candlestick-and-bollinger-bands/

What do you think about the doji hammer on bitstamp for the 1 week and 3 day charts?

[Afrikoin]

I was looking up some forex tech analysis stuff today and came across this.
http://www.fxkeys.com/doji-candlestick-doji-star-how-to-trade-using-doji-candlestick-and-bollinger-bands/

What do you think about the doji hammer on bitstamp for the 1 week and 3 day charts?

It looks decent i'll admit. Bitcoin markets offer plenty of textbook candlestick patterns. Noobs learning candlesticks could benefit from observing BTC markets.

Back to the doji hammer, on the weekly, there's 3 more days to the end of that candle's week, so that should be at the back of the mind. It could turn to something different if prices go lower.

If it does hold and remains as is, then there is a good chance market will go up  and maybe even trend sideways for a while (while respecting the hammer bottom).

IMO, after observing this pattern, it is wise to now find technique that has a broader time outlook. THis hammer could mark the bottom of a trading sideways range/ or the bottom of significant move up. That is where the other technique comes in.

I would suggest looking at MAster Luc's charts, RynDiClems and watch the strength of the market as we come up against EMA's and MA's. That will add conviction to where this doji hammer fits.