Analysis

[samurai1200]

The 3-hour chart (full scale) on bitcoinity for Gox is looking pretty wild -- definitely some manipulation going on there. Feels like market orders are getting executed way late.

[masterluc]

Update:

20d ema my favorite? Nope.

I have couple of ma, which support each subcount level. Lowest subcount supported by hourly 50 ma, highest count supported by weekly 20 ma. On their break or hold I deternine whether my count is valid.

[Brisance]

20d ema my favorite? Nope.

I have couple of ma, which support each subcount level. Lowest subcount supported by hourly 50 ma, highest count supported by weekly 20 ma. On their break or hold I deternine whether my count is valid.

I stand corrected, actually it was the 200sma not the 20 exponential you had called earlier. My bad.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg3845764#msg3845764


Revised Chart With Correct Moving Averages:


https://www.tradingview.com/x/plnruYIy/

[cAPSLOCK]

This am when btc started pushing down through suppprt at 830ish I decided to move half my stake to USD.  Then bang it drops past my first target so fast I am stunned into inaction.  Was planning to buy back...  But now I am not sure.  News plus technicals bodes fairly darkly.

I wish I was a trader like you guys. What is gonna happen?

[samurai1200]

so are we in the midst of a bear market? long and painful, maybe get us down to the $400's?

Maybe. I think $400 is far more likely on btc-e and bitstamp than mtgox. Also if it gets there at all, $400 will be momentary (place your orders now). I think $500 will see some super-serious support on mtgox and btcchina.

We are currently on the other side of a bull trap. This week I think a steady decline fueled by whales pulling the trigger on their decisions is likely.

This means volatility and is good for day traders. Sell when/before a whale does, catch the knife, ride out the bull trap, sell on the market-order-frenzy peak, then buy when the dust settles. Easy right?  

[emanymton]

so are we in the midst of a bear market? long and painful, maybe get us down to the $400's?

Maybe. I think $400 is far more likely on btc-e and bitstamp than mtgox. Also if it gets there at all, $400 will be momentary (place your orders now). I think $500 will see some super-serious support on mtgox and btcchina.

We are currently on the other side of a bull trap. This week I think a steady decline fueled by whales pulling the trigger on their decisions is likely.

This means volatility and is good for day traders. Sell when/before a whale does, catch the knife, ride out the bull trap, sell on the market-order-frenzy peak, then buy when the dust settles. Easy right?  

So far down 50% with that strategy, eventually I'll get one right and make it back 

[samurai1200]

good thing I'm a bit-stamp trader. Anyway, I'm so far bad at making calls on these mini waves. My next move will be for the long haul.

A much better strategy (long haul). Day trading and timing takes way more nerves and can be less predictable (thought the last few market impulses have been very fractal in nature).

I feel like the last few pages of TA on this thread called today's movement pretty well. That hasn't always been the case, but it has at least poised us to make intelligent actions based on data, and narrowed our options for action.

[edit] I'd also like to mention that false bull traps are a possibility. I was very worried about that due to the rise from Dec 7-10, then most of this weekend... I sold some around 900 during the crash from 1200 and gox was deciding that 900-1000 was a good range to be in. I held my position largely because of the sentiment and sound arguments/TA in this thread (and that I wasn't far off from closing my position with null change).

[GreenBits]

good thing I'm a bit-stamp trader. Anyway, I'm so far bad at making calls on these mini waves. My next move will be for the long haul.

A much better strategy (long haul). Day trading and timing takes way more nerves and can be less predictable (thought the last few market impulses have been very fractal in nature).

I feel like the last few pages of TA on this thread called today's movement pretty well. That hasn't always been the case, but it has at least poised us to make intelligent actions based on data, and narrowed our options for action.

agreed. keep this up guys. it might not be said but the community appreciates your contribution, ill say it if no one else will. thanks.


~Green

[samurai1200]

is $400 too greedy? maybe I should back off and say $500.

The thing I am (very slowly) learning is that its better to capture 70% of a drop than to not capture it at all.

[BrightAnarchist]

so are we in the midst of a bear market? long and painful, maybe get us down to the $400's?

we are going much lower than that

[Brisance]

Look at the chart posted earlier today and compare to this updated version.

Mt.Gox Is The Red Line

Notice which fib all the ema's cross at.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/NwuJC6tC/

[masterluc]

Guys I see no support between now and purple line at all. And purple line support is quite questionable.

[Brisance]

Guys I see no support between now and purple line at all. And purple line support is quite questionable.

I was seeing the same thing. I thought the natural progression line should be something like this:

Obviously with a few pit stop along the way.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WDAjCGrV/

[cAPSLOCK]

Guys I see no support between now and purple line at all. And purple line support is quite questionable.

So you see a legit target range of 275 to 350?

I put q buy in for 511.  That's too high you think?

[masterluc]

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

[Lady_Luck]

Guys I see no support between now and purple line at all. And purple line support is quite questionable.

Me too, I don't see any support above 2700cny, and I'm curious about your count Lucif, but i don't think we have even completed wave 3 of C (edit : may be 3 starting in a moment).
I'm still unsure whether it's a flat or zigzag, i'm more on the regular 3-3-5 side for now though. What about you ?

[2017orso]

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

we both know you're not going anywhere...

[cAPSLOCK]

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

we both know you're not going anywhere...

Its his party... He can cry if he wants to.   

I prefer him around though.  And internet suicides are always overvalued.

[2017orso]

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

we both know you're not going anywhere...

Its his party... He can cry if he wants to.   

I prefer him around though.  And internet suicides are always overvalued.

no I mean in as much as he provides brilliant analysis he also instills fear on purpose imo

[Okurkabinladin]

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

we both know you're not going anywhere...

Its his party... He can cry if he wants to.   

I prefer him around though.  And internet suicides are always overvalued.

Why should he cry? He is one of the few guys here, who consistently made money, playing this market.