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Author Topic: [DEAD] DeepBit.net PPS+Prop,instant payouts, we pay for INVALID BLOCKS too  (Read 1453723 times)
[Tycho]
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September 02, 2012, 02:25:27 AM
 #5361

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be. Good luck never seems to last as long as bad luck.
Actually it's usually neutral.
For example, as shown at our stats page now, luck results for current difficulty span are 0.3% better than expected.

Welcome to my bitcoin mining pool: https://deepbit.net - Both payment schemes (including PPS), instant payout, no invalid blocks !
ICBIT Trading platform : USD/BTC futures trading, Bitcoin difficulty futures (NEW!). Third year in bitcoin business.
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organofcorti
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September 02, 2012, 03:57:34 AM
 #5362

As Kano mentioned a number of pages back, if you average luck edit: in terms of round length over a time period, longer rounds have a larger weight. If you average over a number of rounds instead, then longer rounds have no more weight than shorter rounds.

tl;dr:
1. If you want to measure "luck" in terms of round length, don't average over time: average over a number of blocks instead.
2. If you want to measure average luck per time period, use the Poisson CDF for the expected number of blocks given the current pool hashrate.


Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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[Tycho]
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September 02, 2012, 09:36:53 AM
 #5363

Good idea, I'll try to implement that.

Welcome to my bitcoin mining pool: https://deepbit.net - Both payment schemes (including PPS), instant payout, no invalid blocks !
ICBIT Trading platform : USD/BTC futures trading, Bitcoin difficulty futures (NEW!). Third year in bitcoin business.
dishwara
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September 02, 2012, 11:11:51 AM
 #5364

Hi there,

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be. Good luck never seems to last as long as bad luck. We had a +98% day a little over a week ago. I'm not sure I've ever seen a -98% day. Then again, There are many more -20% days than +20% days.

    Best I could come up with is somehow the hashes are salted with the calendar and some days are extra salty.

    To be clear, I love deepbit. I prefer running in proportional mode. 99.9% of my hashes go there and the other .1% goes to a backup PPS pool when deepbit can't be reached. I'm just genuinely curious as to why bad days seem to last a good 24+ hours instead of 6, or 12 hours. I'm in it for the long haul till GPUs aren't profitable and I realize that over time it all evens out. It sure is nice when there are -50% days vs +60% days like we had yesterday Smiley

BAD must be bad, then only you will call it bad.
You can't call some one dead until he stops breathing 100%.
Even some comes back alive after they dead for some hours.

Same thing goes to bad luck.
If you have negative profit more than some percentage you think, then only you call it bad luck.
In your own terms, 6 or 12 hours is not bad for you.
But if bad continues 24+ hours, you feel it is bad.
For some 6+ hours is bad.
For some 24+ hours is bad.
For some 100+ hours is bad.

For some people eating 3 times a day is very good luck, coz they so far only able to see food 3 days once only.

If you fear then go for PPS.
I can call myself the first one to start a MINING company with 100% money from BTC only & also first one to gone public by issuing IPO.
The interesting thing is normally all start a company, do business & after some time they release shares to extend their business.
I got money by issuing IPO in the name of DISHWARA, got BTC, converted all to dollars, then to INR & bought hardware, started mining & gave dividend.
But after some time i got problems, so i bought all the shares i sold, (still 29 shares left, some one don't want to give share back to me), closed every thing & now trying to buy shares from others in GLBSE.

No one knows DISHWARA was the first mining business started using only BTC & a business started public but ended private.
What is luck to me?
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September 02, 2012, 12:06:58 PM
 #5365

Hi there,

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall,


No one knows DISHWARA was the first mining business started using only BTC & a business started public but ended private.


WTF does this have to do with mining luck? Smiley
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September 02, 2012, 12:10:46 PM
 #5366

Hi there,

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall,


No one knows DISHWARA was the first mining business started using only BTC & a business started public but ended private.


WTF does this have to do with mining luck? Smiley
Yes, Since i want to start again, luck is changing.
Ones i become stable, luck will be stable.
organofcorti
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September 02, 2012, 12:11:57 PM
 #5367

Hi there,

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall,


No one knows DISHWARA was the first mining business started using only BTC & a business started public but ended private.


WTF does this have to do with mining luck? Smiley
Yes, Since i want to start again, luck is changing.
Ones i become stable, luck will be stable.

It's ok FLHippy. It's just dishwara's way of welcoming you to mining.

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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September 02, 2012, 03:18:56 PM
 #5368

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall,

After casting about it turns out there is an answer to this after all. It's Gambler's Fallacy..... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

there is no reason to assume at any point that a change of luck is warranted based on prior trials (flips), because every outcome observed will always have been as likely as the other outcomes that were not observed for that particular trial

In other words, luck should be ignored if you're not mining PPS.

Sorry to bother...
organofcorti
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September 02, 2012, 03:29:05 PM
 #5369

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall,

After casting about it turns out there is an answer to this after all. It's Gambler's Fallacy..... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

there is no reason to assume at any point that a change of luck is warranted based on prior trials (flips), because every outcome observed will always have been as likely as the other outcomes that were not observed for that particular trial

In other words, luck should be ignored if you're not mining PPS.

Sorry to bother...


Well, not ignored. The pool's luck record helps you ensure your payment has been correct if you're on prop. And luck can be analysed to make sure a pool is not being dishonest about results (as Bitclockers were at the start of the year when they were a prop pool).

But why should luck not be ignored if you;re mining PPS? As long as you get paid for every share you submit, what does the pool's luck matter?

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FLHippy
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September 02, 2012, 03:38:42 PM
 #5370

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall,
luck should be ignored if you're not mining PPS.

Sorry to bother...
But why should luck not be ignored if you;re mining PPS? As long as you get paid for every share you submit, what does the pool's luck matter?

I'm sorry I think I meant luck should be ignored from day to day, morning to evening, if you're mining proportional (not mining pps). in time you'll make more money with the lower fee.

I was answering my own question, why does it seem luck is bad for a longer time than it's good. Because I'm looking at it twice a day which is much too short of a time period. Extra long block solves weigh more heavily than average and less than average solve times can lift it back up in a 24 hour time span.

I think this is clearer?
organofcorti
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September 02, 2012, 03:50:51 PM
 #5371

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall,
luck should be ignored if you're not mining PPS.

Sorry to bother...
But why should luck not be ignored if you;re mining PPS? As long as you get paid for every share you submit, what does the pool's luck matter?

I'm sorry I think I meant luck should be ignored from day to day, morning to evening, if you're mining proportional (not mining pps). in time you'll make more money with the lower fee.

I was answering my own question, why does it seem luck is bad for a longer time than it's good. Because I'm looking at it twice a day which is much too short of a time period. Extra long block solves weigh more heavily than average and less than average solve times can lift it back up in a 24 hour time span.

I think this is clearer?

Sure. I just thought you were saying that you shouldn't ignore luck for PPS, which didn't make sense. Anyway, good luck!

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dishwara
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September 02, 2012, 04:00:35 PM
 #5372

You want something & you get it without any problem, then its called normal.
You want something & you can't get it then, its bad luck.
You want something, you get that & also you get some other thing which you never thought & that some other thing is good for you, then its good luck.
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September 02, 2012, 05:08:30 PM
 #5373

You want something & you get it without any problem, then its called normal.
You want something & you can't get it then, its bad luck.
You want something, you get that & also you get some other thing which you never thought & that some other thing is good for you, then its good luck.


You're not going to start throwing yoghurt are you? Cause what you're describing is what went down in Greece recently Smiley

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September 02, 2012, 11:46:16 PM
 #5374

You want something & you get it without any problem, then its called normal.
You want something & you can't get it then, its bad luck.
You want something, you get that & also you get some other thing which you never thought & that some other thing is good for you, then its good luck.


You're not going to start throwing yoghurt are you? Cause what you're describing is what went down in Greece recently Smiley



LOL! I live in Greece and believe me nothing of importance has happend as per the country's luck! We're on an economic disaster schedule since 2009 and the program is going on smoothly; until the economic sharks (foreign and domestic) acquire what's (they think) theirs.

This is a pool discussion so I will stop here. As per luck; if you check the graphs, you will notice what several guys here said (including Tycho) it's constant. Look Slush/Deepbit/Eclipse (the biggest pools as per hashrate). Their luck is (almost) constant. If you project this to infinity; you might as well have a very smooth line.

Just my 20c...

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September 04, 2012, 03:42:28 AM
 #5375

This block... almost 11K shares and counting.
[Tycho]
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September 08, 2012, 12:26:11 PM
 #5376

This block... almost 11K shares and counting.
Don't worry. With current difficulty it's even less than 400% D :)

Welcome to my bitcoin mining pool: https://deepbit.net - Both payment schemes (including PPS), instant payout, no invalid blocks !
ICBIT Trading platform : USD/BTC futures trading, Bitcoin difficulty futures (NEW!). Third year in bitcoin business.
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September 09, 2012, 08:10:50 PM
 #5377

This block... almost 11K shares and counting.
Don't worry. With current difficulty it's even less than 400% D Smiley

That makes it just as bad Tycho. Wink
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September 09, 2012, 09:42:34 PM
 #5378

Thycho, all this hashing power hitting your pool recently.. A bunch of smaller miners or a few big players?
[Tycho]
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September 09, 2012, 09:50:26 PM
 #5379

Tycho, all this hashing power hitting your pool recently.. A bunch of smaller miners or a few big players?
Total hashrate reached 4-4.1 TH/s slowly over time and it looks like relatively small miners.

Some peaks up to 4.8 TH/s were possibly caused by someone directing GPUMAX here via special kind of proxy. I'm working on this.

Welcome to my bitcoin mining pool: https://deepbit.net - Both payment schemes (including PPS), instant payout, no invalid blocks !
ICBIT Trading platform : USD/BTC futures trading, Bitcoin difficulty futures (NEW!). Third year in bitcoin business.
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September 09, 2012, 10:03:37 PM
 #5380

Tycho, all this hashing power hitting your pool recently.. A bunch of smaller miners or a few big players?
Total hashrate reached 4-4.1 TH/s slowly over time and it looks like relatively small miners.

Some peaks up to 4.8 TH/s were possibly caused by someone directing GPUMAX here via special kind of proxy. I'm working on this.
Out of curiosity, why don't you allow GPUMax?
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