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Author Topic: [CLOSED] BTC Guild - Pays TxFees+NMC, Stratum, VarDiff, Private Servers  (Read 828672 times)
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organofcorti
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Poor impulse control.


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May 02, 2014, 11:28:22 AM
 #6801

people like this guy clearly don't understand probability
but they do love innuendo.

It'll be in your endo in a minute! *heh heh*

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ManeBjorn
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May 02, 2014, 02:29:20 PM
 #6802

I have been researching pool centralization and manipulation, one of the things I found is that discus fish and ghash set their accepted block size very low.  Discus fish obscenely low.
This allows them to plow through more of the smaller blocks faster than pools that play fair.
I have more but I have to finish verification first before I say anything more.


DPoS, I appreciate that you are genuinely concerned about this, but variance happens.

If you have any evidence beyond the de facto luck of the pool, I'd personally be delighted to see it, but claiming to be the only guy who can see the conspiracy while the math nerds politely nod and smile...

I say this without malice, but it reminds me of the scores of (to a person, bad) poker players I've met over the years who talk about how dealers screw them, how winners are just lucky, how they usually win when they sit in their lucky seat, how they never win with pocket aces, and a gillion other things that all come down to the reality that variance happens.

They don't understand it, and so the game must be rigged.

nope - I've mined with BTCGuild 2nd half of last year and right into this situation.  I totally know the types you are talking about..  I am talking about a step down in the overall dynamic.

I said a few times I don't run pools and can't be an expert.  But I can notice when a game balance has changed from a mile away so I put that out there right when it started to happen..  It continues and will continue until taken seriously

I'll put it another way..  do you think those folks that raped wall street with High Frequency Trading haven't cast their eyes on mining pools to look for any way shape or form to get and edge? 

Call me chicken little and I am not attacking BTCGuild, it is just this is the place I mined for so long so this where my gut threw the red flag that something was amiss..

perhaps Ghash or Discus Fish or KNC figured something out




DPoS
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May 02, 2014, 03:55:48 PM
 #6803


eleuthria, people like this guy clearly don't understand probability, and given that the community can't stop people like that mining, these sorts of posts might end if you add a confidence interval to the luck chart for context indicating how likely an average "luck" is.



I've worked with systems my whole life and many times had to point out issues in other departments when I detected a change in behavior.  And almost always I get blasted for 'not knowing what I am talking about' so I have think skin on this

Or you can say I really do understand probability since I predicted a long downtrend...  we know that isn't true so more likely I sensed a change in the pulse and left the table

~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~Play Boardgames for Bitcoins!!~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~ Something I say help? Donate BTC! 1KN1K1xStzsgfYxdArSX4PEjFfcLEuYhid
-ck
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Ruu \o/


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May 03, 2014, 12:59:58 PM
 #6804

I have been researching pool centralization and manipulation, one of the things I found is that discus fish and ghash set their accepted block size very low.  Discus fish obscenely low.
This allows them to plow through more of the smaller blocks faster than pools that play fair.
There's no such thing. "Smaller blocks" (presumably by that you mean ones with less transactions) take just as long on average to solve as larger ones.

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Pooled mine at kano.is, solo mine at solo.ckpool.org
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SelbyTsang
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May 03, 2014, 01:08:35 PM
 #6805

I have been researching pool centralization and manipulation, one of the things I found is that discus fish and ghash set their accepted block size very low.  Discus fish obscenely low.
This allows them to plow through more of the smaller blocks faster than pools that play fair.
There's no such thing. "Smaller blocks" (presumably by that you mean ones with less transactions) take just as long on average to solve as larger ones.

The time needed to find the block should be the same, in statistical sense.
But the time needed to propagate a smaller block to the network should be slightly shorter, giving the miner a slightly advantage in orphan block race.

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May 03, 2014, 01:09:38 PM
 #6806

I have been researching pool centralization and manipulation, one of the things I found is that discus fish and ghash set their accepted block size very low.  Discus fish obscenely low.
This allows them to plow through more of the smaller blocks faster than pools that play fair.
There's no such thing. "Smaller blocks" (presumably by that you mean ones with less transactions) take just as long on average to solve as larger ones.

The time the block should be the same, in statistical sense. But the time needed to propagate a smaller block to the network should be slightly short, giving the miner a slightly advantage in orphan block race.
How many orphans do you see here from btcguild?

Primary developer/maintainer for cgminer and ckpool/ckproxy.
Pooled mine at kano.is, solo mine at solo.ckpool.org
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eleuthria
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May 03, 2014, 01:28:01 PM
 #6807

How many orphans do you see here from btcguild?

Less than 1% (the general 'rule of thumb' that has been fairly accurate for the past 3 years is ~1%) in 2014.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
BTC Guild Forum Thread
-ck
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May 03, 2014, 01:30:58 PM
 #6808

How many orphans do you see here from btcguild?

Less than 1% (the general 'rule of thumb' that has been fairly accurate for the past 3 years is ~1%) in 2014.

Right.

But the time needed to propagate a smaller block to the network should be slightly shorter, giving the miner a slightly advantage in orphan block race.

And what's discus fish and ghash's orphan rate?

Primary developer/maintainer for cgminer and ckpool/ckproxy.
Pooled mine at kano.is, solo mine at solo.ckpool.org
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eleuthria
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May 03, 2014, 01:41:48 PM
 #6809

How many orphans do you see here from btcguild?

Less than 1% (the general 'rule of thumb' that has been fairly accurate for the past 3 years is ~1%) in 2014.

Right.

But the time needed to propagate a smaller block to the network should be slightly shorter, giving the miner a slightly advantage in orphan block race.

And what's discus fish and ghash's orphan rate?

GHash and Discus Fish use smaller blocks because they are by far the two worst connected pools on the network.  GHash's history of winning orphan races is pretty poor when they aren't the one that mines the next block.  Based on looking at organofcorti's charts (http://organofcorti.blogspot.com), it looks like GHash's average over their last 6000 blocks is around 1.5% (not seeing the actual stat anywhere over the full timeline, so going based on visual estimate).

Discus Fish doesn't have many (any?) stats publicly available, so their orphan rates aren't known.  I would bet they probably have a worse orphan rate considering they're in China, meaning their connectivity to the majority of the mining power on the network is very poor.

EDIT: And speak of the devil, Guild's most recent block was orphaned by Discus Fish even though BTC Guild's block was seen by most of the network well before theirs, since they found the following block.  Guild's block was seen *14 seconds* before Discus Fish's block by blockchain.info, and 96% of the nodes blockchain.info is connected to reported Guild's block over Discus Fish's.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
BTC Guild Forum Thread
Sir Alan
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May 03, 2014, 07:07:37 PM
 #6810

EDIT: And speak of the devil, Guild's most recent block was orphaned by Discus Fish even though BTC Guild's block was seen by most of the network well before theirs, since they found the following block.  Guild's block was seen *14 seconds* before Discus Fish's block by blockchain.info, and 96% of the nodes blockchain.info is connected to reported Guild's block over Discus Fish's.
Selfish mining is alive and well, then.  Any indication that DF might have been perfectly well aware that Guild had already reported 298926 before building on their own preceding block (298925)?

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eleuthria
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May 03, 2014, 08:08:51 PM
 #6811

EDIT: And speak of the devil, Guild's most recent block was orphaned by Discus Fish even though BTC Guild's block was seen by most of the network well before theirs, since they found the following block.  Guild's block was seen *14 seconds* before Discus Fish's block by blockchain.info, and 96% of the nodes blockchain.info is connected to reported Guild's block over Discus Fish's.
Selfish mining is alive and well, then.  Any indication that DF might have been perfectly well aware that Guild had already reported 298926 before building on their own preceding block (298925)?

Selfish mining is withholding a block until you have built another on top of it already, or waiting for someone else to announce a block before releasing yours.  It's unlikely that this was a malicious act, but it could have been.  Discus Fish has always had terrible connections to the network due to being in China, which blocks the IPs to a *lot* of pools/bitcoin services which run some of the fastest relaying nodes on the network.

Discus Fish is a PPS only Chinese pool.  Selfish mining with ~15% of the network on a PPS pool would mean bankruptcy (assuming they're legit and not running a fractional reserve) due to the significantly higher orphan rates that selfish mining will always cause.


EDIT:  Of course that doesn't rule out Discus Fish doing selfish mining, just that it's unlikely to make economic sense.  Of all the pools out there, they'd be the easiest ones to pass off selfish mining as standard inefficiency since their stats are limited at best, the majority of the community can't even read their website, and they are in a country with 3rd world connectivity when it comes to worldwide networking.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
BTC Guild Forum Thread
hurricandave
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May 03, 2014, 10:00:19 PM
 #6812

Do you remove the orphans from the Dashboard manually? I still see them listed in the pool stats but not in the Recent Block rewards. Just curious, since I rarely click on Pool Stats.
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May 03, 2014, 10:04:18 PM
 #6813

Do you remove the orphans from the Dashboard manually? I still see them listed in the pool stats but not in the Recent Block rewards. Just curious, since I rarely click on Pool Stats.

I've been tweaking the dashboard a little bit the last few days.  Orphans weren't supposed to show under Recent Block Rewards at the moment, it's going to be a configurable option (Default off) because of how many emails they generate from people who don't know what it means.  They were defaulting On due to some other changes I'm making related to Scrypt mining (not currently visible to the public).  They've actually been Default 'On' until today.  We just hadn't had any orphans out of the last ~400 blocks (until today).

They've always been shown under Pool Stats (though they used to show the block # instead of identifying the block as an orphan up until about 1 month ago).

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
BTC Guild Forum Thread
DevonMiner
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May 03, 2014, 10:31:32 PM
 #6814


We just hadn't had any orphans out of the last ~400 blocks (until today).

Yeah, I was watching the confirmation status ... took ages ... and I suspected all was not well .. and then it orphaned. It happens.

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May 03, 2014, 10:38:08 PM
 #6815


We just hadn't had any orphans out of the last ~400 blocks (until today).

Yeah, I was watching the confirmation status ... took ages ... and I suspected all was not well .. and then it orphaned. It happens.



It was actually orphaned much earlier than that, the problem was the old way the dashboard filtered orphan vs waiting for confirmation required the pool to find another block first.  I updated it so it will recognize an orphan earlier.

It's *very slightly* possible that a block might show up 'Orphaned' on the dashboard (once you can re-enable that display) and then end up getting confirmed & paid.  This would happen if the hot wallet server [used to identify new blocks and confirmations] sees the block after a competing block, since the hot wallet server is not actually one of the mining servers that relays our block solves.  Another pool (or our own mining servers) might then build off the erroneously-marked orphan.  The mining servers and the hot wallet are in the same datacenter though, so this probably won't ever happen.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
BTC Guild Forum Thread
eleuthria
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May 04, 2014, 01:46:09 AM
 #6816

The hot wallet lost connectivity (tweaking some upstream filtering to prep for Scrypt mining) earlier.  Payouts weren't being broadcast over the network as a result.  It's been fixed and they should be rebroadcast shortly.  Sorry for the delay in getting confirmations for those payouts.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
BTC Guild Forum Thread
os2sam
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May 05, 2014, 07:33:57 PM
 #6817

It reminds me of how Deepbit disappeared from the pools list.

It's no wonder [Tycho], and others, have disappeared from these forums.  Let's accuse everyone else, with NO evidence, of malfeasance as well so that we have no responsible people left in the community.

Great idea.

A: Because it messes up the order in which people normally read text.
Q: Why is top-posting such a bad thing?
A: Top-posting.
Q: What is the most annoying thing on usenet and in e-mail?
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May 05, 2014, 11:31:52 PM
 #6818

It reminds me of how Deepbit disappeared from the pools list.

It's no wonder [Tycho], and others, have disappeared from these forums.  Let's accuse everyone else, with NO evidence, of malfeasance as well so that we have no responsible people left in the community.

Great idea.

Well, seeing how things get removed from this thread, why bother?

let the data over time speak loudly on this one


Approximate Pool Luck* (24H / 3D / 1W / 2W / 1M / 3M / All Time): 57.525% / 66.081% / 76.537% / 80.554% / 84.873% / 90.909% / 98.545%

just a bad streak.. seems legit


~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~Play Boardgames for Bitcoins!!~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~ Something I say help? Donate BTC! 1KN1K1xStzsgfYxdArSX4PEjFfcLEuYhid
stan258
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May 05, 2014, 11:41:00 PM
 #6819

It reminds me of how Deepbit disappeared from the pools list.

It's no wonder [Tycho], and others, have disappeared from these forums.  Let's accuse everyone else, with NO evidence, of malfeasance as well so that we have no responsible people left in the community.

Great idea.

Well, seeing how things get removed from this thread, why bother?

let the data over time speak loudly on this one


Approximate Pool Luck* (24H / 3D / 1W / 2W / 1M / 3M / All Time): 57.525% / 66.081% / 76.537% / 80.554% / 84.873% / 90.909% / 98.545%

just a bad streak.. seems legit





Pool is below 7.5 P now :{



kendog77
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May 06, 2014, 12:23:06 AM
 #6820

It reminds me of how Deepbit disappeared from the pools list.

It's no wonder [Tycho], and others, have disappeared from these forums.  Let's accuse everyone else, with NO evidence, of malfeasance as well so that we have no responsible people left in the community.

Great idea.

Well, seeing how things get removed from this thread, why bother?

let the data over time speak loudly on this one


Approximate Pool Luck* (24H / 3D / 1W / 2W / 1M / 3M / All Time): 57.525% / 66.081% / 76.537% / 80.554% / 84.873% / 90.909% / 98.545%

just a bad streak.. seems legit



Bad luck can't last forever unless it's not just luck and there is something more nefarious going on. Other pools may have also figured out how to gain some sort of mining advantage and are good about keeping it a secret. If someone discovered some sort of advantage that allowed them to earn more BTC, sharing it with anyone while it could still be exploited would be silly because it would eliminate the advantage.

I like the fact that eleuthria is so transparent regarding BTCGuild and urge eleuthria not to remove useful pool information like luck statistics. Most other pools don't even bother posting information about luck, so why have it on your site and open yourself up to scrutiny if you're trying to pull some shenanigans? That doesn't make any sense to me.

Since BtcGuild and Eligius are both underperforming right now, some other pools must be over performing since the difficulty keeps going up. Does anyone know which pools are experiencing better than average luck right now?
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