Bitcoin Forum
December 04, 2016, 01:59:51 AM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 ... 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 [340] 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 ... 426 »
  Print  
Author Topic: [CLOSED] BTC Guild - Pays TxFees+NMC, Stratum, VarDiff, Private Servers  (Read 828512 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic.
MoreBloodWine
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 924


I rule with an iron fist !


View Profile WWW
May 01, 2014, 07:56:28 AM
 #6781

Waiting for a confirmation   2014-05-01 03:54 AM

Where exactly does this "confirmation" come from ?

Want a chance at winning some BTC, LTC or another crypto currency ?
Then be sure to check out our Weekly Crypto Lotteries: Crypto Lottos

Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1480816791
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480816791

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480816791
Reply with quote  #2

1480816791
Report to moderator
eleuthria
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1750


BTC Guild Owner


View Profile WWW
May 01, 2014, 07:57:26 AM
 #6782

Waiting for a confirmation   2014-05-01 03:54 AM

Where exactly does this "confirmation" come from ?

When another block on the network confirms it.  That only shows up when BTC Guild just found a block and no new block on the network has built off it (IE:  We don't know if it's going to be orphaned or not yet).

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
BTC Guild Forum Thread
MoreBloodWine
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 924


I rule with an iron fist !


View Profile WWW
May 01, 2014, 08:02:06 AM
 #6783

Waiting for a confirmation   2014-05-01 03:54 AM

Where exactly does this "confirmation" come from ?

When another block on the network confirms it.  That only shows up when BTC Guild just found a block and no new block on the network has built off it (IE:  We don't know if it's going to be orphaned or not yet).
Ahh, so when the next block is found / built off of it its a yay or nay to boot it off the island.

Want a chance at winning some BTC, LTC or another crypto currency ?
Then be sure to check out our Weekly Crypto Lotteries: Crypto Lottos

eleuthria
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1750


BTC Guild Owner


View Profile WWW
May 01, 2014, 08:07:13 AM
 #6784

Waiting for a confirmation   2014-05-01 03:54 AM

Where exactly does this "confirmation" come from ?

When another block on the network confirms it.  That only shows up when BTC Guild just found a block and no new block on the network has built off it (IE:  We don't know if it's going to be orphaned or not yet).
Ahh, so when the next block is found / built off of it its a yay or nay to boot it off the island.

Yep.  The pool no longer pays for orphans, but it doesn't require a 100-120 confirmation wait.  The likelihood of a block getting orphaned after it is confirmed is extremely low, to the point it just doesn't seem worth delaying the application of rewards to wait for even more confirmations.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
BTC Guild Forum Thread
MoreBloodWine
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 924


I rule with an iron fist !


View Profile WWW
May 01, 2014, 08:09:54 AM
 #6785

Waiting for a confirmation   2014-05-01 03:54 AM

Where exactly does this "confirmation" come from ?

When another block on the network confirms it.  That only shows up when BTC Guild just found a block and no new block on the network has built off it (IE:  We don't know if it's going to be orphaned or not yet).
Ahh, so when the next block is found / built off of it its a yay or nay to boot it off the island.

Yep.  The pool no longer pays for orphans, but it doesn't require a 100-120 confirmation wait.  The likelihood of a block getting orphaned after it is confirmed is extremely low, to the point it just doesn't seem worth delaying the application of rewards to wait for even more confirmations.
I was actually sad to see this go.

In the past, oh lets say 6 months, how many orphans has BTCGuild seen ?

Want a chance at winning some BTC, LTC or another crypto currency ?
Then be sure to check out our Weekly Crypto Lotteries: Crypto Lottos

eleuthria
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1750


BTC Guild Owner


View Profile WWW
May 01, 2014, 08:30:57 AM
 #6786

Waiting for a confirmation   2014-05-01 03:54 AM

Where exactly does this "confirmation" come from ?

When another block on the network confirms it.  That only shows up when BTC Guild just found a block and no new block on the network has built off it (IE:  We don't know if it's going to be orphaned or not yet).
Ahh, so when the next block is found / built off of it its a yay or nay to boot it off the island.

Yep.  The pool no longer pays for orphans, but it doesn't require a 100-120 confirmation wait.  The likelihood of a block getting orphaned after it is confirmed is extremely low, to the point it just doesn't seem worth delaying the application of rewards to wait for even more confirmations.
I was actually sad to see this go.

In the past, oh lets say 6 months, how many orphans has BTCGuild seen ?

It's been less than 1% since the paid orphans were removed.  We haven't had one in the last 300 blocks now.  The historical orphan rate (not counting the 0.8 hardfork event) has been about as close to 1% you can get given the sample size in comparison to the expected frequency.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
BTC Guild Forum Thread
DPoS
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 462



View Profile
May 01, 2014, 08:55:31 AM
 #6787

Sometimes I feel like Bitcoin's hashing/difficulty algorithm is actually a cruel joke.  256 minute block -> 325 minute block -> 9 minute -> 14 minute -> 13 minute -> 3 minute.

2 blocks took 9 hours followed by the pool getting 5 of the last 6 on the entire network.

maybe the cruel joke is *whatever* is affecting your pool and that good stretch was a hiccup/reset/reconfig of *whatever* is affecting your pool

maybe I am wearing a tinfoil hat but maybe you have blinders on..I don't know since I never ran a pool but it is obvious *something* has pulled a few cards out of your deck

 

Oh, it's "obvious" something is happening?  The post was tongue in cheek.  EVERY POOL has stretches and then bursts like I posted above, and it's annoying for all of them.

If you want an idea of how far variance can swing:  BTC Guild found 11 blocks in a row across the network a few months ago.  That was with the pool only have ~25% of the entire network hash rate.

EDIT:  The blocks: 275644 - 275654.  11 blocks by BTC Guild in 1h 10m with 0 blocks from other pools in that time.


As I said I don't run a pool but as an outsider just observing patterns it does seem like the game is being rigged.. perhaps those great streaks you still get are the only way you can fight through *whatever* is going on...  and many of the shorter streaks are getting hijacked or whatever

I haven't analyzed your graphs completely but it seems that you never have good stretches anymore where you only dip to 100% and keep spiking. Your pool used to do that frequently before and the last time was first week in March

That's close to two months ago.  The recent good stretch still dipped many times under 100% a week ago.  Just seems like lower lows and lower highs.

I used to mainly mine PPS on your pool but always kept an eye on the performance of the PPLNS since I would try to take a few runs in there from time to time.... and I can say that a few months ago *something* changed

Sadly there are only a few big pools so variance is still going to be used to explain it away...  I'll check back in a few months but if nothing is discovered I expect the pool to stay around 80% luck


~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~Play Boardgames for Bitcoins!!~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~ Something I say help? Donate BTC! 1KN1K1xStzsgfYxdArSX4PEjFfcLEuYhid
navigator
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 360


View Profile
May 01, 2014, 01:45:55 PM
 #6788

In the past btcguild seems like it was always slightly above 100% luck. It's nothing unusual for it to have a bad luck streak like this.
I also feel like the pool with the most hash will be the one that's slightly more lucky than it should be, but I don't see how that can be true.
Ghash is already at 18PH today and will likely be over 19PH tomorrow or the next day. It's growing at an astounding rate.
I think that since sometimes Ghash will find a block in a few seconds, that those blocks are what are 'taking away' the luck from the other pools.
But in reality it's just lady luck and variance.

Has anyone calculated Ghash's luck?

Edit: I forgot about http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/ lots of useful pool info there.
DPoS
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 462



View Profile
May 01, 2014, 05:02:06 PM
 #6789

In the past btcguild seems like it was always slightly above 100% luck. It's nothing unusual for it to have a bad luck streak like this.



Say you played blackjack for 30 years and then the dealer took out the Kings..  you would notice a change in the dynamic quickly before even realizing the kings were out.   That was the same type of feeling I had when this downtrend started and why I made a fuss and then left.

Perhaps ghash is doing that 'don't report found blocks right away' ploy.  Or something else like hashing on BTCGuild and disrupting solved blocks somehow.. or maybe they just figured out a better way to distribute work in their pool.

I don't know but I do know that if you keep playing blackjack without kings, eventually you'll just forget how it was when there were kings in blackjack and then make a new sense of what's normal

also.. if that blackjack dealer wanted to go for the long con, they would put kings back in the deck once every 4 shuffles or just take out two kings and two queens so things can still appear normal a little bit more...

just saying

~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~Play Boardgames for Bitcoins!!~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~ Something I say help? Donate BTC! 1KN1K1xStzsgfYxdArSX4PEjFfcLEuYhid
guytechie
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 293


View Profile
May 02, 2014, 01:15:04 AM
 #6790

In the past btcguild seems like it was always slightly above 100% luck. It's nothing unusual for it to have a bad luck streak like this.



Say you played blackjack for 30 years and then the dealer took out the Kings..  you would notice a change in the dynamic quickly before even realizing the kings were out.   That was the same type of feeling I had when this downtrend started and why I made a fuss and then left.

Perhaps ghash is doing that 'don't report found blocks right away' ploy.  Or something else like hashing on BTCGuild and disrupting solved blocks somehow.. or maybe they just figured out a better way to distribute work in their pool.

I don't know but I do know that if you keep playing blackjack without kings, eventually you'll just forget how it was when there were kings in blackjack and then make a new sense of what's normal

also.. if that blackjack dealer wanted to go for the long con, they would put kings back in the deck once every 4 shuffles or just take out two kings and two queens so things can still appear normal a little bit more...

just saying

Also a weird coincidence luck seem to have gone down around the time PPS was discontinued.  Don't know how to say that without being taken the wrong way...

Put something in my tip jar if I made your day. Smiley
BTC:
1MkmBHDjonAFXui6JEx9ZmEemfMtUo9Cmu
eleuthria
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1750


BTC Guild Owner


View Profile WWW
May 02, 2014, 01:56:44 AM
 #6791

I really just need to remove that chart.  Eligius' thread doesn't get derailed this frequently over this crap and their 90 day luck is almost identical to ours. (Guild: 92.3%, Eligius 92.5% for the last 2000 blocks [calculated yesterday], which is ~88 days, p2pool 90.8%).

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
BTC Guild Forum Thread
demonmaestro
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518


Mining for the hell of it.


View Profile
May 02, 2014, 01:57:43 AM
 #6792

well its not really the chart but 3 blocks.... Undecided

A fun ShoutBox. http://shoutscloud.com | Feel Like Donating? 1E1tJhAHVLCyw58pN7jXSFMLMrK6cDhw8v
Buy/Sell BitCoin & LiteCoin  Click here! | Looking for a great exchange? CoinBase Has you covered.
DPoS
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 462



View Profile
May 02, 2014, 02:04:44 AM
 #6793

I really just need to remove that chart.  Eligius' thread doesn't get derailed this frequently over this crap and their 90 day luck is almost identical to ours. (Guild: 92.3%, Eligius 92.5% for the last 2000 blocks [calculated yesterday], which is ~88 days, p2pool 90.8%).

I'd say Eliguis is suffering from the same BS - you seem to want to run away from the stuff I mentioned

I'll go away and be back in two months since you want to call it 'crap'


~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~Play Boardgames for Bitcoins!!~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~ Something I say help? Donate BTC! 1KN1K1xStzsgfYxdArSX4PEjFfcLEuYhid
BrandonMcPherson
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 205


View Profile
May 02, 2014, 02:46:23 AM
 #6794

DPoS, I appreciate that you are genuinely concerned about this, but variance happens.

If you have any evidence beyond the de facto luck of the pool, I'd personally be delighted to see it, but claiming to be the only guy who can see the conspiracy while the math nerds politely nod and smile...

I say this without malice, but it reminds me of the scores of (to a person, bad) poker players I've met over the years who talk about how dealers screw them, how winners are just lucky, how they usually win when they sit in their lucky seat, how they never win with pocket aces, and a gillion other things that all come down to the reality that variance happens.

They don't understand it, and so the game must be rigged.
MoreBloodWine
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 924


I rule with an iron fist !


View Profile WWW
May 02, 2014, 02:46:52 AM
 #6795

I really just need to remove that chart.  Eligius' thread doesn't get derailed this frequently over this crap and their 90 day luck is almost identical to ours. (Guild: 92.3%, Eligius 92.5% for the last 2000 blocks [calculated yesterday], which is ~88 days, p2pool 90.8%).

I'd say Eliguis is suffering from the same BS - you seem to want to run away from the stuff I mentioned

I'll go away and be back in two months since you want to call it 'crap'


Don't take it the wrong way, it's just eleuthria fields luck stuff more than a goalie at hockey game.

Ok, that analogy didn't word the way I hoped it would but the points still made. He gets it a lot.

Want a chance at winning some BTC, LTC or another crypto currency ?
Then be sure to check out our Weekly Crypto Lotteries: Crypto Lottos

DPoS
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 462



View Profile
May 02, 2014, 03:57:34 AM
 #6796

DPoS, I appreciate that you are genuinely concerned about this, but variance happens.

If you have any evidence beyond the de facto luck of the pool, I'd personally be delighted to see it, but claiming to be the only guy who can see the conspiracy while the math nerds politely nod and smile...

I say this without malice, but it reminds me of the scores of (to a person, bad) poker players I've met over the years who talk about how dealers screw them, how winners are just lucky, how they usually win when they sit in their lucky seat, how they never win with pocket aces, and a gillion other things that all come down to the reality that variance happens.

They don't understand it, and so the game must be rigged.

nope - I've mined with BTCGuild 2nd half of last year and right into this situation.  I totally know the types you are talking about..  I am talking about a step down in the overall dynamic.

I said a few times I don't run pools and can't be an expert.  But I can notice when a game balance has changed from a mile away so I put that out there right when it started to happen..  It continues and will continue until taken seriously

I'll put it another way..  do you think those folks that raped wall street with High Frequency Trading haven't cast their eyes on mining pools to look for any way shape or form to get and edge? 

Call me chicken little and I am not attacking BTCGuild, it is just this is the place I mined for so long so this where my gut threw the red flag that something was amiss..

perhaps Ghash or Discus Fish or KNC figured something out



~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~Play Boardgames for Bitcoins!!~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~ Something I say help? Donate BTC! 1KN1K1xStzsgfYxdArSX4PEjFfcLEuYhid
eleuthria
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1750


BTC Guild Owner


View Profile WWW
May 02, 2014, 04:44:23 AM
 #6797

You've already admitted you're not an expert.  That is also obvious by what you've said.  I have kept what you've posted in this thread even though it is making assumptions that are completely false.

Ghash, Discus Fish, and KNC do not post their luck figures.  They also don't publish any historical data to calculate it externally.  For all we know their luck is as bad or worse.  Even if it isn't bad though, that doesn't mean anything because variance doesn't only swing one way.  Just like how BTC Guild had over 6 consecutive months of positive luck.  But nobody ever bitches when things are working better than expected, but they sure do forget it quickly.

However, they did not "figure something out" and the fact that you even mention that shows you have no clue what you're talking about.  If they "figured something out" it would mean SHA256 is fundamentally broken and Bitcoin is insecure.  Mining is a RANDOM process.  That is a *FACT* unless SHA256 is broken.  There is no way to "more efficiently distribute work".  Finding a difficulty 1 share is a 1 in ~4.2 billion chance per hash.  Finding a share at current network difficulty is a 1 in ~33,600,000,000,000,000,000 chance per hash.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
BTC Guild Forum Thread
DPoS
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 462



View Profile
May 02, 2014, 06:28:14 AM
 #6798

No problem - I'm not here to fight or anything just mentioned it 2 months ago when I notice the change and here we are.   See ya in another two months

regards


~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~Play Boardgames for Bitcoins!!~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~ Something I say help? Donate BTC! 1KN1K1xStzsgfYxdArSX4PEjFfcLEuYhid
organofcorti
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946


Poor impulse control.


View Profile WWW
May 02, 2014, 09:38:04 AM
 #6799


Quote from: link=topic=49417.msg6501922#msg6501922 date=1398995804
I really just need to remove that chart.  Eligius' thread doesn't get derailed this frequently over this crap and their 90 day luck is almost identical to ours. (Guild: 92.3%, Eligius 92.5% for the last 2000 blocks [calculated yesterday], which is ~88 days, p2pool 90.8%).


No problem - I'm not here to fight or anything just mentioned it 2 months ago when I notice the change and here we are.   See ya in another two months

regards



eleuthria, people like this guy clearly don't understand probability, and given that the community can't stop people like that mining, these sorts of posts might end if you add a confidence interval to the luck chart for context indicating how likely an average "luck" is.


Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
follow @oocBlog for new post notifications
Sir Alan
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 221


View Profile
May 02, 2014, 11:27:18 AM
 #6800

people like this guy clearly don't understand probability
but they do love innuendo.

1Eeyore17YeHrbJW5Q3pSdV8sXujkdrrFc
Pages: « 1 ... 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 [340] 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 ... 426 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!