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Author Topic: [CLOSED] BTC Guild - Pays TxFees+NMC, Stratum, VarDiff, Private Servers  (Read 829714 times)
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eleuthria
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May 07, 2014, 05:15:38 PM
 #6881

So my biggest question right now is if it turns out to be errant miners, what can be done about it?  For all I know I might have one such miner, but how to tell?  I'm a very small player and have never solved a block.  How do you weed out the problem miners without shitting on the little guys?  And then on the flip side what incentive is there for a manufacturer to give a shit?  They only "guarantee" a given hash rate, not that those hashes will ever solve a block.  An unscrupulous manufacturer could deliberately exploit this.

I'm getting out for the time being anyway.  Not because of this but my electricity costs are too high and I need to invest in my house and not my miners this summer.  I might be back when winter comes around again so will be following this with interest.

As of right now, this doesn't appear to be affecting publicly sold miners, at least not to the same degree.


If you look at the ghash #'s over the last day they have had three 2+ hour times w/o a block and seven 1+ hour times w/o a block. Since they have about 3x the hashing power as BTC Guild that would that be the same as three 6+ hour blocks here and seven 3+ hour blocks?

-Dave

Yes, basically.  Luck is measured by shares vs network difficulty, but given constant speeds, the luck on each individual block would be comparable (6 hour block on one pool would be a 2 hour block on a pool that's 3x faster).  This is why faster pools level out to neutral luck faster.  They spend less time on bad blocks, but also less time on good ones.  As a result they simply have more blocks in a given time frame, which means they're more likely to be close to neutral in that time frame compared to a smaller pool.  Meanwhile, a smaller pool in that same time frame may be much lower, or much higher than neutral.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
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May 07, 2014, 05:41:45 PM
 #6882



As of right now, this doesn't appear to be affecting publicly sold miners, at least not to the same degree.

thanks for sharing .. I guess user 522067 got some explaining to do?  (are they unlucky or certain behavior/limits are happening? and you probably see worse examples in the full data)


the brightside is if a use case is figured out, then perhaps you could automate sending out tests to miners on a periodic semi-random basis..  hopefully that would make a good safety net instead of manually playing wack-a-mole


EDIT after reading eleuthria:  5222067 is a newer miner during such higher diff so perhaps those numbers are fine..  i guess the ones that don't show up on the leaderboard are the real issue

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eleuthria
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May 07, 2014, 06:03:38 PM
 #6883



As of right now, this doesn't appear to be affecting publicly sold miners, at least not to the same degree.

thanks for sharing .. I guess user 522067 got some explaining to do?  (are they unlucky or certain behavior/limits are happening? and you probably see worse examples in the full data)


the brightside is if a use case is figured out, then perhaps you could automate sending out tests to miners on a periodic semi-random basis..  hopefully that would make a good safety net instead of manually playing wack-a-mole


EDIT after reading eleuthria:  5222067 is a newer miner during such higher diff so perhaps those numbers are fine..  i guess the ones that don't show up on the leaderboard are the real issue

As you edited, yes, 522067 isn't in any way showing signs of a withholding attack/bug.  They started mining at much higher difficulty than many other miners, so obviously their solved blocks vs shares ratio is much worse than some of the other top users who were mining at difficulties significantly lower than it is when 522067 started.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
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Minor Miner
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May 07, 2014, 06:47:48 PM
 #6884

I feel that without being pushed you would not have "outed" this freerider, you kept claiming luck, until a number of people really pushed it.
I also feel that this "freerider" has cost me over $50,000 while I was being short changed for the blocks I was solving on your pool.
We have the right to know who this person it and what is wrong with his machines so that we can protect ourselves from them.

EDIT:  Personally, I find it VERY interesting that you turn PPS off two weeks into this "bad luck" run and thus protecting yourself (financially) against any prolonged run of bad luck, but you had to be pushed to do anything to protect us miners that were being ripped off by this "bad luck" FREERIDER.

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May 07, 2014, 06:55:28 PM
 #6885

Meanwhile, a smaller pool in that same time frame may be much lower, or much higher than neutral.


Which sometimes is part of the "fun" EMC had a block that took 1 day 13 hrs that solved yesterday. Since then 6 in about 18 hours.

-Dave

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May 07, 2014, 07:10:28 PM
 #6886

I feel that without being pushed you would not have "outed" this freerider, you kept claiming luck, until a number of people really pushed it.
I also feel that this "freerider" has cost me over $50,000 while I was being short changed for the blocks I was solving on your pool.
We have the right to know who this person it and what is wrong with his machines so that we can protect ourselves from them.

EDIT:  Personally, I find it VERY interesting that you turn PPS off two weeks into this "bad luck" run and thus protecting yourself (financially) against any prolonged run of bad luck, but you had to be pushed to do anything to protect us miners that were being ripped off by this "bad luck" FREERIDER.


Is this a single case or this low share equipment/software affecting mining across the board with other pools? What is the real hashrate of the network?
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May 07, 2014, 07:31:40 PM
 #6887

I feel that without being pushed you would not have "outed" this freerider, you kept claiming luck, until a number of people really pushed it.
I also feel that this "freerider" has cost me over $50,000 while I was being short changed for the blocks I was solving on your pool.
We have the right to know who this person it and what is wrong with his machines so that we can protect ourselves from them.

EDIT:  Personally, I find it VERY interesting that you turn PPS off two weeks into this "bad luck" run and thus protecting yourself (financially) against any prolonged run of bad luck, but you had to be pushed to do anything to protect us miners that were being ripped off by this "bad luck" FREERIDER.


PPS was turned off March 15th.  3 WEEKS before this miner even started mining on BTC Guild.  PPS was turned off after discussing the IRS notice published about a week prior with tax accountants and lawyers about the classification of pool payments and reporting requirements that PPS may have required in contrast to distribution methods that are purely based on what miners have produced rather than a pay per unit of work method.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
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May 07, 2014, 07:46:59 PM
 #6888

I feel that without being pushed you would not have "outed" this freerider, you kept claiming luck, until a number of people really pushed it.
I also feel that this "freerider" has cost me over $50,000 while I was being short changed for the blocks I was solving on your pool.
We have the right to know who this person it and what is wrong with his machines so that we can protect ourselves from them.

EDIT:  Personally, I find it VERY interesting that you turn PPS off two weeks into this "bad luck" run and thus protecting yourself (financially) against any prolonged run of bad luck, but you had to be pushed to do anything to protect us miners that were being ripped off by this "bad luck" FREERIDER.


Actually, although you may feel that you have a right to know who, you don't and naming him could open Eleuthria to libel charges. The only right you have is to choose to use, or not use, this pool. All this person did, in reality, was distort the Luck figures and receive some compensation that in hindsight might not have been deserved. but playing a loop hole, if it was intentional, is not illegal. Most likely this person wasn't aware of the problem.

What if it turns out that USB Block Erupters are the problem? do you think people running them will stop? individually, they are undetectable, too small. but, there are enough people running them to have an impact. Think, how many of them there are in the world. All we can do is sit back and let the pool operaters do their thing and hopefully they will give us some insight as to what hardware is the problem and how to fix it.

*insert appropriate begging line here* 
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eleuthria
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May 07, 2014, 08:01:37 PM
 #6889

Actually, although you may feel that you have a right to know who, you don't and naming him could open Eleuthria to libel charges. The only right you have is to choose to use, or not use, this pool. All this person did, in reality, was distort the Luck figures and receive some compensation that in hindsight might not have been deserved. but playing a loop hole, if it was intentional, is not illegal. Most likely this person wasn't aware of the problem.

What if it turns out that USB Block Erupters are the problem? do you think people running them will stop? individually, they are undetectable, too small. but, there are enough people running them to have an impact. Think, how many of them there are in the world. All we can do is sit back and let the pool operaters do their thing and hopefully they will give us some insight as to what hardware is the problem and how to fix it.

I'm waiting on a response once they believe they've fixed it (which they seem to have done, they tested a software patch on another pool and did solve a block).  My understanding is that the group of users were running custom gear, but I have asked them for more detail (chip manufacturer, software kits if any).  They did NOT have problems until the difficulty passed 4.2b, and that was proven by looking at their test runs when they used to mine on Eligius.  They moved to BTC Guild in early April because they had fewer connection issues with our servers.

It has been 4 weeks since they started mining on BTC Guild.  So unless there are other, yet unknown, hardware issues, only the last 1 month of luck (at most) is the fault of this group of miners.  And up until recently, there was NOT enough data to rule out variance.  

EDIT:  People can point out that action was taken after they started non-stop posting in the thread, and they can continue to do that all they want.  People will always try to assume a causality when something happens, ignoring the fact that action was going to be taken whether they said a word or not if something was actually broken.  I began talking other pool operators and asking if they had noticed any miners with unusual luck since we were all trending downward.  We started discussing possible causes (hardware releases, the 32-bit overflow point, etc.).  But at the time we had nothing firm, and there was not enough data to rule out "luck happens".  That was only 3 weeks into this group starting to mine on BTC Guild, and that was the first point where the 1-month luck interval began to take a significant dive.  Even at that point it was NOT clear if it was simple variance.  I've been running this pool for over 3 years now, and big swings were not unusual.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
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May 07, 2014, 08:14:09 PM
 #6890

Actually, although you may feel that you have a right to know who, you don't and naming him could open Eleuthria to libel charges. The only right you have is to choose to use, or not use, this pool. All this person did, in reality, was distort the Luck figures and receive some compensation that in hindsight might not have been deserved. but playing a loop hole, if it was intentional, is not illegal. Most likely this person wasn't aware of the problem.

What if it turns out that USB Block Erupters are the problem? do you think people running them will stop? individually, they are undetectable, too small. but, there are enough people running them to have an impact. Think, how many of them there are in the world. All we can do is sit back and let the pool operaters do their thing and hopefully they will give us some insight as to what hardware is the problem and how to fix it.

I'm waiting on a response once they believe they've fixed it (which they seem to have done, they tested a software patch on another pool and did solve a block).  My understanding is that the group of users were running custom gear, but I have asked them for more detail (chip manufacturer, software kits if any).  They did NOT have problems until the difficulty passed 4.2b, and that was proven by looking at their test runs when they used to mine on Eligius.  They moved to BTC Guild in early April because they had fewer connection issues with our servers.

It has been 4 weeks since they started mining on BTC Guild.  So unless there are other, yet unknown, hardware issues, only the last 1 month of luck (at most) is the fault of this group of miners.  And up until recently, there was NOT enough data to rule out variance.

The good news is that it is in a users economic best interest to patch their software, but I'm very interesting in hearing more details since all the facts are known.

Hopefully the facts will be made publicly available soon so other users that may not even know that they have the same issue can patch their software.
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May 07, 2014, 09:15:36 PM
 #6891

Actually, although you may feel that you have a right to know who, you don't and naming him could open Eleuthria to libel charges. The only right you have is to choose to use, or not use, this pool. All this person did, in reality, was distort the Luck figures and receive some compensation that in hindsight might not have been deserved. but playing a loop hole, if it was intentional, is not illegal. Most likely this person wasn't aware of the problem.
It really depends on how big the user is and whether they were solo mining until they found their luck had changed.   You really think someone mining 1PH/s or more does not know?  Bullshit.   And it is not chump change.
Figure out how much money it is.   21% ("bad luck") X 144 blocks per day (I know this is low) X 30 days X 15% (market share of BTC Guild?) X 25.25 coins in a block x $435 = $1,494,000 was "wrongly allocated" from the miners at BTCGuild to this person over the last 90 days.
So, yes I do think we have the right to know so we all can figure out if the $2M was by accident or something worse.   Even if it is by accident, shouldn't the honest person pay the pool back?

EDIT:  EDITED FOR THE MATH OF THIS ONLY BEING ONE GROUP THAT ONLY JOINED THE GROUP FOR 30 DAYS.    Michael posted the 30 days after I had posted this.

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May 07, 2014, 09:20:17 PM
 #6892

It has been 4 weeks since they started mining on BTC Guild.

Perhaps they are not the only ones then?  It would reduce how much this group would owe back to the pool but it would seem only part of the problem.

I apologize for the PPS comment.   The fact remains that this group received coins that they did not earn and those coins came from the members of BTC Guild.     

too many grasshoppers, not enough ants
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May 07, 2014, 09:38:35 PM
 #6893

Not sure I like what I have been reading over the past few pages in this thread ...

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May 07, 2014, 09:51:00 PM
 #6894

   I don't think "they" owe any of "us" anything.  If they had an issue, it's been recognized, with help and diligence in testing, "they" should be able to return to the pool and be a productive contributor. If "they" had enough speed to bring the collective results down, without malice intent, with the appropriate adjustments, "they" can be just as likely to boost "us" back up. In the LONG-TERM more than making up for any "losses" as others may cast upon them, and benefitting us all.
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May 07, 2014, 09:51:12 PM
 #6895

Not sure I like what I have been reading over the past few pages in this thread ...


I'll sum it up this way

There aren't many expert miners.. and much less expert mining pool operators but there are lots of miners that are experts in other fields.  Many traits overlap from field to field. People can work together from different fields if egos and trolling are checked at the door

The last few pages were actually very healthy..  re-reading March is the part people need to grow from


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May 07, 2014, 09:54:56 PM
 #6896

   I don't think "they" owe any of "us" anything.  If they had an issue, it's been recognized, with help and diligence in testing, "they" should be able to return to the pool and be a productive contributor. If "they" had enough speed to bring the collective results down, without malice intent, with the appropriate adjustments, "they" can be just as likely to boost "us" back up. In the LONG-TERM more than making up for any "losses" as others may cast upon them, and benefitting us all.
Want to walk me through that math?   Not possible.

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May 07, 2014, 10:00:53 PM
 #6897

  I don't think "they" owe any of "us" anything.  If they had an issue, it's been recognized, with help and diligence in testing, "they" should be able to return to the pool and be a productive contributor. If "they" had enough speed to bring the collective results down, without malice intent, with the appropriate adjustments, "they" can be just as likely to boost "us" back up. In the LONG-TERM more than making up for any "losses" as others may cast upon them, and benefitting us all.

Not correct.  Even if they come back and find blocks, that doesn't make up for the lost income from the month they were mining.  I'm still waiting for a response to my last email.  While I'd love to see them return some/all of the coins they mined in the last month and then work out a re-distribution for those shifts (recalculate the shifts with their shares excluded), past experience with payout errors (0.8 fucking up the backend and crediting miners as if network diff was from 2009 and costing me 1200 BTC for example) have made me fairly jaded when it comes to that.

Of course, Minor Miner's numbers are also completely wrong since he's using a 3 month luck figure when we know for a fact that the only confirmed "bad miners" were only around for 1 month.  Similarly, the assumption is that the pool luck would have been, at least, neutral without their influence, which is an assumption that has no basis.

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May 07, 2014, 10:06:45 PM
 #6898

   I don't think "they" owe any of "us" anything.  If they had an issue, it's been recognized, with help and diligence in testing, "they" should be able to return to the pool and be a productive contributor. If "they" had enough speed to bring the collective results down, without malice intent, with the appropriate adjustments, "they" can be just as likely to boost "us" back up. In the LONG-TERM more than making up for any "losses" as others may cast upon them, and benefitting us all.
Want to walk me through that math?   Not possible.
"They" have only been on this pool 30-days before an audit popped an issue. What do you think it will take for a successful operation to over come "losses". Do you think that because they had a 30 day issue they are forever behind the 8-ball?
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May 07, 2014, 10:10:55 PM
 #6899

   I don't think "they" owe any of "us" anything.  If they had an issue, it's been recognized, with help and diligence in testing, "they" should be able to return to the pool and be a productive contributor. If "they" had enough speed to bring the collective results down, without malice intent, with the appropriate adjustments, "they" can be just as likely to boost "us" back up. In the LONG-TERM more than making up for any "losses" as others may cast upon them, and benefitting us all.
Want to walk me through that math?   Not possible.
"They" have only been on this pool 30-days before an audit popped an issue. What do you think it will take for a successful operation to over come "losses". Do you think that because they had a 30 day issue they are forever behind the 8-ball?

If they came back and mined for 1 month while not taking any payment from the pool, it would not make up for the difference (unless they were lucky or network diff suddenly got cut in half), since the difficulty is now higher than the month they started.  If they come back and add 10-15% to the pool's hash rate, and add 10-15% to the pool's blocks, that doesn't actually give anybody more money.  The slice they take out of each shift's payments would be roughly equal to the percentage of blocks they add to the pool.  That's a push.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
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May 07, 2014, 10:20:15 PM
 #6900

Of course, Minor Miner's numbers are also completely wrong since he's using a 3 month luck figure when we know for a fact that the only confirmed "bad miners" were only around for 1 month.  Similarly, the assumption is that the pool luck would have been, at least, neutral without their influence, which is an assumption that has no basis.
I changed the post.  I did not know they have only been here 30 days.  Still do not since maybe they used a different account and changed?   I do not know.   I assume you are confident that it is only this one bad (or unfortunate) actor and only four weeks though.   It is still $1.5M.    I assumed you would have run at 98% or so (yes a little bad luck and YES you can argue but we will never know what your luck would have been otherwise).
Enough hijacking of the thread, I have said what I think plus if it is four weeks and four weeks only, I left the pool about that time so I do not have a dog in this fight then.


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