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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1808029 times)
cypherdoc
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September 22, 2014, 07:10:59 PM
 #12541

Dow -108
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cypherdoc
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September 22, 2014, 07:14:29 PM
 #12542

Breaking out.  just look at that volume from Friday:



escape velocity:

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September 22, 2014, 07:21:31 PM
 #12543

so GABI has started buying

http://www.futuresmag.com/2014/09/22/bitcoin-fund-launches

interesting that they have developed partnerships with Bitfinex & Coinsetter

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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September 22, 2014, 07:30:07 PM
 #12544

The divergence is coming
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September 22, 2014, 08:08:22 PM
 #12545

Excellent interview of Thomas Piketty, author on wealth inequality. He received quite a bit of criticism on this work but only because the book was so popular and threatening to the financial elite.

http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2014/09/thomas_piketty.html

He is a marxist, he wants to control everyone, be careful who you admire

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September 22, 2014, 08:44:20 PM
 #12546

Excellent interview of Thomas Piketty, author on wealth inequality. He received quite a bit of criticism on this work but only because the book was so popular and threatening to the financial elite.

http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2014/09/thomas_piketty.html

He is a marxist, he wants to control everyone, be careful who you admire

lol, finding out more and more about him.
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September 22, 2014, 08:55:33 PM
 #12547

the US laid bare:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-22/first-germany-now-france-folds-syrian-airstrikes
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September 22, 2014, 09:44:12 PM
 #12548

i've been ignoring this one all day but then decided to take a look.  lol:

Million dollar smile

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September 22, 2014, 10:12:51 PM
 #12549

Do you have any target on gold/silver cypherdoc ?
I have to admit that i didn't believe you back in July, even if a correction clearly made sense.
Now the real question is where the bottom will be... We're not there yet, i do think PM will go down with stocks, and the correction in stocks should happen (soon ?).





Gaud, the last thing i want to do is create another massive thread like the "Gold-I smell a trap" one over in Economics that went on for 5 months.  it was just too much work.  most ppl here into gold/silver won't like what i have to say so don't bother reading further.

my views haven't changed.  i think gold/silver is a relic of the past and Bitcoin will assume its place as a new standard.  i think gold drops to $400.  i think that we are about to embark on a massive debt deleveraging phase which will be deflationary and take stocks down with it to test the March 09 lows at least.  we may drift a few more days higher in the Dow before it rolls over.  i see divergences everywhere but especially with the Transports, Russell, and ALL commodities like oil, natural gas, wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, copper and gold/silver.  the silver chart especially is busted.  the general mining stocks are telegraphing hard times ahead like FCX, TCK, BHP.  the junior miners have been devastated as in GDXJ.  GDX is following it down.

there's a good chance Wall St and the Fed are desperately trying to manipulate the Dow higher to get retail investors back in but don't buy it.  once we roll they will sell/short you into oblivion.  the Vix did an underthrow today once again to try and create complacency.

i'm going to try and not say much more as i could be wrong and i know the gold bugs are going to start swarming with the hate.

Gold has qualities that Bitcoin doesn't have and Gold has been a store of value and exchange for thousands of years; it will still be the case for the foreseeable future or should I say for "a considerable time" to talk like Yellen

The FED is still buying up assets and its balance sheet is still growing; we are yet to see what would happened if it was trying to reduce it!

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September 22, 2014, 10:16:11 PM
 #12550

Do you have any target on gold/silver cypherdoc ?
I have to admit that i didn't believe you back in July, even if a correction clearly made sense.
Now the real question is where the bottom will be... We're not there yet, i do think PM will go down with stocks, and the correction in stocks should happen (soon ?).





Gaud, the last thing i want to do is create another massive thread like the "Gold-I smell a trap" one over in Economics that went on for 5 months.  it was just too much work.  most ppl here into gold/silver won't like what i have to say so don't bother reading further.

my views haven't changed.  i think gold/silver is a relic of the past and Bitcoin will assume its place as a new standard.  i think gold drops to $400.  i think that we are about to embark on a massive debt deleveraging phase which will be deflationary and take stocks down with it to test the March 09 lows at least.  we may drift a few more days higher in the Dow before it rolls over.  i see divergences everywhere but especially with the Transports, Russell, and ALL commodities like oil, natural gas, wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, copper and gold/silver.  the silver chart especially is busted.  the general mining stocks are telegraphing hard times ahead like FCX, TCK, BHP.  the junior miners have been devastated as in GDXJ.  GDX is following it down.

there's a good chance Wall St and the Fed are desperately trying to manipulate the Dow higher to get retail investors back in but don't buy it.  once we roll they will sell/short you into oblivion.  the Vix did an underthrow today once again to try and create complacency.

i'm going to try and not say much more as i could be wrong and i know the gold bugs are going to start swarming with the hate.

Gold has qualities bugs that Bitcoin doesn't have and Gold has been a store of value and exchange for thousands of years and used to be used for exchange; it will still be the case for the foreseeable future or should I say for "a considerable time" to talk like Yellen

The FED is still buying up assets and its balance sheet is still growing; we are yet to see what would happened if it was trying to reduce it!


FTFY

(read the last few hundred pages of this thread for details)

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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September 22, 2014, 11:48:25 PM
 #12551


Any theory why so many commodities are heading down at the moment? Especially when QE is still going strong.

Manipulation perhaps?

QE's all gone to the wrong places, ie, the deflationary black hole of UST's and Fed Excess Reserves.  not to mention the stock mkt.

It could be the beginning of a hyperdeflation. These indicators are all early stages in the production structure, which would see low prices first. But no use to blame me if it does not happen.

QE is primarily used to keep the banks afloat. Ostensibly the trillions the Fed hands over to the banks is supposed to be injected into the economy via business loans etc, but most of it is immediately loaned back to the Fed for which the Fed pays the banks interest. It's a neat system for the banks who would otherwise just die and it also allows the execs' bonuses to be paid. Some of the money also goes into the stock markets in order to maintain an appearance that the economy is something other than a complete trainwreck. But if any of the QE fake dollars were to go into the actual economy then it would be inflationary. Fundamentally the economy can't improve until the zombie banks die a natural death but the Fed won't let the banks die. Catch 22 limbo.
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September 23, 2014, 12:09:27 AM
 #12552

Fundamentally the economy can't improve until the zombie banks die a natural death but the Fed won't let the banks die. Catch 22 limbo.

The biflation is killing me.  Everything I have (PM & BTC) is getting blowtorched, while everything I need (cell, auto insurance, Grubhub, housing, beer/wine) is already exorbitant and getting worse.

How far can this trend go?  What gives first?

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September 23, 2014, 12:54:55 AM
 #12553

Fundamentally the economy can't improve until the zombie banks die a natural death but the Fed won't let the banks die. Catch 22 limbo.

The biflation is killing me.  Everything I have (PM & BTC) is getting blowtorched, while everything I need (cell, auto insurance, Grubhub, housing, beer/wine) is already exorbitant and getting worse.

How far can this trend go?  What gives first?

The only good news is that we're all in the same boat and yes it's agony. Cyclically we should have gone into a major depression in 2001/2002, which would have been a very healthy thing. But Greenspan didn't let that happen. The next opportunity was 2007/2008 but again the Fed stepped up and made it appear like we rebounded. But we didn't rebound. It's now seven years later and if the cycles hold true we should be heading back into the hole soon. However, the current situation could go on for a long time and the only real way out is a black swan event. My gut tells me some pretty big cracks will start to show by November as the northern winter starts to set in. OTOH my gut has never been officially recognized as a reliable financial indicator.
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September 23, 2014, 01:34:11 AM
 #12554

last nite i was thinking about what exactly has enabled the USD fiat system to defeat gold over the last few decades since the 1970's after we depegged. i think the answer is digital dollars.

normally when we talk about the relationship of fiat to gold, we talk in terms of paper dollars that are printed out of thin air.  yes, a piece of paper is lighter than an ounce of gold so naturally we'd prefer to carry those around.  and in the Money is Memory paper, we refer to this as a technological advance.  but really, it's the digitalization of those dollars that has made gold obsolete.

as you know, 93% or so of the USD monetary base is digital dollars.  with these digital dollars and the digital debt that can be instantly leveraged from them, the Fed can instantly transmit them round the world to put out dollar debt crises.  all it now takes is a few strokes on a keyboard along with the Internet and the money can be there.  the Euro swaps extended to the European banks back in 2008 come to mind.  this ability to digitally transfer dollars in the form of swaps or loans to those regions before a true crisis can get off the ground is what allows the Fed to put out financial crises before the local price of gold can skyrocket and enforce sound money principles. before digital dollars existed, the local price of gold would go up in a crisis causing gold from outside the country to start moving into the region to satisfy the extra demand and arbitrage away price differences.  with time and with a little contagion, worldwide prices of gold could rise as well.  unfortunately gold, being from the physical world, can't find its way quick enough into a crisis zone nowadays simply b/c of its weight and bulk.  digital bailout dollars are too fast.  what makes it even worse is that most gold is tied up in NY and London because of the physical bulk security needs and convenience for countries and institutions.  but even major countries like Germany can't seem to get at their gold stores at the Fed when they want to.  thru stalling tactics, the Fed can buy itself time to provide alternative bailouts or assistance to countries or regions in trouble and when the will is there, they can digitally transfer dollars in the form of loans or swaps to recipient countries instantaneously.  and now, after all these decades, a moral hazard has built up and countries even expect a certain level of digital dollar bailout as Argentina recently tried to negotiate. this further takes the pressure off the gold price. but as we've seen, the problem is that the digital dollar system has become very political and corrupt.

the point i am trying to make is that gold has already been defeated by a digital currency. it's just that the gold bugs can't conceptualize that. they continue to talk in terms of "paper money" and "printing" in relationship to a scarce, heavy, beautiful hunk of metal.  these terms are holdovers from an age gone by.  these physical constructs in their minds serve to embed their misunderstanding of what's been happening.  they misunderstand what's causing their frustrations. digital money is already here folks and it's working; just not ideally.  

when viewed from this perspective, Bitcoin suddenly makes alot of sense.  it is an even better digital money than the digital dollar that is not effected by politics or corruption.  and it can easily compete with the digital dollar through the efficiencies it brings, as it eliminates intermediaries, inflation, and costs.  it even works at the level of the individual where digital dollars can't compete.  and most importantly, it removes the Fed.

sorry if these concepts are already obvious to some but i don't recall it ever having being put exactly this way.


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September 23, 2014, 01:56:40 AM
 #12555

Quote
Gold has been a store of value and exchange for thousands of years and used to be used for exchange

Gold is used for exchange, it would be silly argument to think otherwise.  Its not a major asset any more like bonds or shares have become?    Every central bank stores gold as an asset, the thing now is it has become 1% of money used in the world so China has 1% of monetary backing in solid gold allegedly.  The thing is has debt as security reached its zenith and in that case, which would be stronger the usa and old money system with 17tn or china as largest gold producer and potentially user of gold in future.    Nobody knows that it'll play out that way but its possible things turn upside down from now with gold on top again some day, it is used for exchange more then btc still afaik

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September 23, 2014, 02:03:41 AM
 #12556

if i'm right that the digital dollar has already defeated gold as a form of money, then it doesn't seem too far fetched at all that a significant portion of the $8T gold market can come into Bitcoin.  maybe even most of it.
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September 23, 2014, 02:09:28 AM
 #12557

if i'm right that the digital dollar has already defeated gold as a form of money, then it doesn't seem too far fetched at all that a significant portion of the $8T gold market can come into Bitcoin.  maybe even most of it.

Cool! Thanks for taking the time and effort for sharing your thesis. The digital dollar also doesn't have any annoying little ledger like the blockchain to get in the way of using the <CTL> P key ad infinitum.
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September 23, 2014, 02:15:44 AM
 #12558

Dollar even digital is still backed by gold in theory, its just become a tiny percentage.  The swiss left a gold standard in 2000 and have recently started buying giant amounts of euros to fix an exchange rate, yet still they have 8% gold backing swiss currency.   USA does have fort knox but its billions vs trillions, the point is dollar slipped its reins not by design or accomplishment

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September 23, 2014, 02:17:53 AM
 #12559

if i'm right that the digital dollar has already defeated gold as a form of money, then it doesn't seem too far fetched at all that a significant portion of the $8T gold market can come into Bitcoin.  maybe even most of it.

Cool! Thanks for taking the time and effort for sharing your thesis. The digital dollar also doesn't have any annoying little ledger like the blockchain to get in the way of using the <CTL> P key ad infinitum.

i don't know how any gold bug can even argue with me that this defeat hasn't already happened and in fact has been going on for several decades.

gold has never been able to enforce fair interest rates or stop the Fed from printing.  we don't need to know anything else except for the fact that the price of gold has been languishing.  the only means for it to enforce that discipline would be for its price to skyrocket caused by, or as a result of, the masses fleeing to it as a safe haven.

for gold bugs to argue that we should put our hard earned savings into gold in the face of the events of the last few decades is like the NSA saying to trust it with our personal data despite the fact the Eric Snowden just stole all our data.
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September 23, 2014, 02:22:26 AM
 #12560

...
the point i am trying to make is that gold has already been defeated by a digital currency. it's just that the gold bugs can't conceptualize that. they continue to talk in terms of "paper money" and "printing" in relationship to a scarce, heavy, beautiful hunk of metal.  these terms are holdovers from an age gone by.  these physical constructs in their minds serve to embed their misunderstanding of what's been happening.  they misunderstand what's causing their frustrations. digital money is already here folks and it's working; just not ideally.  

when viewed from this perspective, Bitcoin suddenly makes alot of sense.  it is an even better digital money than the digital dollar that is not effected by politics or corruption.  and it can easily compete with the digital dollar through the efficiencies it brings, as it eliminates intermediaries, inflation, and costs.  it even works at the level of the individual where digital dollars can't compete.  and most importantly, it removes the Fed.
....

Thanks for the thesis, its posts like these that make the thread worthwhile. I agree with the above. For me it was the "fiat as technology" discussion earlier in the thread that helped me to start to think along these lines.

Previously I always focused on the "store of value" functionality of money above all other attributes. And in this aspect gold is definitely superior to fiat. But the "fiat as technology" FED comments started to help me see how fiat is in fact superior to gold in many other aspects. It is easier to instantaneously move, easier to protect (for a government), and easier to develop piles of consumer oriented services on top of (think visa, debit cards, etc). I've come to think this is what was originally meant by the "gold is a barbaric relic" comment. That comment says gold was something we had to use in ancient times, but we can improve on gold.

Yes the ultimate failing of fiat is the store of value component, but fiat is superior to gold in possibly all other aspects. And this is probably why the dollar defeated gold and why the gold bugs' "bank run on gold" vision never happened. Fiat is simply easier to use and so most people keep using it and so dollars defeated gold.

This line of thinking has made me even more bullish on bitcoin. If bitcoin is better than fiat on all the other attributes where fiat is better than gold, and then you add on Store of Value, then this experiment might be for real.
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